Advertise on podcast: Off The Wall

Stocks looked relatively quiet in the third quarter. Under the surface, there was a lot more going on. Interest rates moved sharply higher. Oil prices climbed. A small group of mega-cap stocks continued to drive much of the market's performance. Meanwhile, bonds are offering yields investors haven't seen in years, and another midterm election is approaching. As we celebrate the 100th episode of OFF THE WALL, David B. Armstrong, CFA, and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM, look back at what drove markets in Q3—and, more importantly, what they're watching as the year winds down. They unpack the move in the 10-year Treasury yield from roughly 4.45% to 5.3%, including the role higher oil prices played in pushing rates up. They also look beneath the major indexes at market breadth and why the Magnificent 7 surged in September while the average stock lagged behind. Then, they turn to fixed income. With yields at levels investors haven't seen in years, Dave and Nate explain why bonds may have earned "a real seat at the table" again—and how owning individual bonds can create opportunities to lock in yields, manage taxes and build around specific cash flow needs. Finally, they look ahead to two issues that could shape the months ahead: the expanding conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on oil and inflation, and the 2026 midterm elections. What does history tell us about market performance around midterms? And does it actually matter to the market which party wins?     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   00:00 - Milestone Welcome 2:02 - Q3 Scoreboard And Calm Markets 5:59 - Oil And Rates Drive The Tape 6:59 - Mag 7 Surge And Weak Breadth 14:51 - TINA Ends Bonds Rejoin Portfolios 17:40 - Building Bond Portfolios With Intent 27:53 - Middle East Oil Routes And Inflation 33:51 - Midterm Gridlock And Q4 Tailwinds 42:48 - AMA Questions And Subscribe 44:11 - Disclosures And Risk Reminder Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

September has historically been a tough month for stocks. Add headlines about tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, and it's easy to wonder whether you should be doing something differently with your portfolio. On this episode of OFF THE WALL, Dave Armstrong, CFA®, and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA®, answer three Ask Monument Anything (AMA) questions about what's happening in the markets and what investors should be paying attention to. They get into the risks surrounding private credit and the AI buildout, the potential impact of tariffs and energy market uncertainty, and what historical market data tells us about September and the fourth quarter. They also discuss why having a cash buffer matters when markets get volatile. If you have money set aside for near-term needs, you may be less likely to find yourself selling investments at an inopportune time. The takeaway: Market pullbacks are part of investing, but that doesn't mean every headline requires a portfolio change. Dave and Nate explain how they evaluate current risks, what the historical data can—and can't—tell us, and why your investment strategy should account for the money you'll need before the market has time to recover.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   00:00 - Disclosures And Quick Cold Open 0:25 - Welcome And Three AMA Questions 1:51 - Geopolitics Oil AI And Markets 9:20 - Tariffs Trade Wars And Inflation 13:10 - Data First Investing Amid Headlines 14:13 - Higher For Longer Rate Reality 23:31 - Build A Plan Buy Sell Hold 25:26 - September Effect And Q4 Hope 31:26 - Send Questions Subscribe And Close 32:52 - Full Disclosures Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

TLDR: Market dips aren't a reason to bail on stocks; they're a reminder to make sure you own the strongest assets. Momentum investing uses data to guide those adjustments, instead of knee-jerk selling, helps to protect you on the downside, capture the upside, and keep your long-term plan on track.  A market pullback can make you want to de-risk and pull money out of stocks. But reacting to short-term swings often locks in losses and can hurt your wealth over time. The only real reason to change your mix of stocks, bonds, and cash is a change in your own life or cash needs — not what the market is doing. That said, you don't have to just sit still. Momentum investing lets real market data, not emotion, guide the moves you make within your portfolio.  In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM discuss why switching asset classes during a sell-off backfires, and how they use momentum investing — tracking which assets are gaining strength — to keep portfolios in good shape.  They explain how this approach captures upside while limiting downside, why taking the "timing" element out of the equation prevents excessive trading, and how zooming out to an 18-year view turns volatility into just another part of a long-term strategy.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   00:00 - The Wrong Reason To Shift 2:25 - Life Events Drive Allocation Changes 5:35 - Momentum And Relative Strength Explained 11:40 - Ranking Winners Without Overtrading 13:55 - When Momentum Gets Whipsawed 15:45 - How We Measure Momentum Today 19:55 - Staying Invested Through Big Sell Offs 28:15 - Planning Withdrawals And Building Patience 31:05 - AMA Invite And How To Reach Us   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Financial media headlines keep warning about an impending "AI bubble." Is a crash coming, or is there more to the story? In a previous episode we argued that there is no AI Bubble. Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM doubles down on his position, taking a dive into the data to illustrate why current market conditions look very different from the 2000 tech crash. This episode breaks down the sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer staples that are quietly outperforming tech. Nate also looks at how many companies beat their Q2 earnings estimates, why the market's price-to-growth ratio suggests stocks are fairly valued rather than overpriced, and what investors and CEOs are feeling about the economy right now.  The takeaway: We don't think the data points to an AI Bubble. And while market volatility is a certainty, you can stay in the driver's seat by keeping a data-driven outlook and financial plan that is positioned for the long term, with 12-24 months of cash on hand to buffer any downturns.   Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 00:00 - Why The AI Bubble Debate Persists 2:27 - Market Breadth Beyond Tech Leaders 6:20 - Earnings Strength Supports Stock Prices 12:32 - Valuation Through PE And PEG 18:29 - Sentiment Checks Investors And CEOs 25:16 - Mosaic Framework Plus Cash Planning 28:58 - AMA Invite Subscribe And Disclosures   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Market pullbacks may actually work in your favor at tax time, if your portfolio is set up to take advantage of them. That's where direct indexing comes in. It's not about trying to time the market. It's a disciplined way to capture tax losses along the way, while helping to keep your investment mix and expected returns where you want them.  In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down why direct indexing is far more than a tax tool; it's a customizable strategy for every stage of your financial life. They explain how to build a "tax war chest" to offset future windfalls, ways to transition between portfolios or advisors without triggering a massive tax hit, and how to think about withdrawing cash in retirement. The TLDR: Direct indexing turns market sell-offs into tax-saving opportunities without pulling you out of the market. Whether you're building wealth, switching strategies, or funding retirement, harvesting losses helps keep your return profile intact and give you more control over your  tax bill. Investing is not just about what you make; it's about what you get to keep.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:  1:28 - Why Direct Indexing Matters 3:04 - How Tax Loss Harvesting Works 8:37 - The Hidden Value Of Customization 11:57 - Accumulation Phase And Tax War Chest 16:07 - Switching Advisors Without A Tax Bomb 21:57 - Retirement Cash Needs And Tax Control 24:41 - Timing Withdrawals To Maximize Offsets 26:18 - Important Disclosures 27:01 - Pogo Stick Analogy And Wrap-Up   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Everyone's talking about an "AI bubble." Is it real? David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM look at what the actual earnings data says — and it tells a different story than the headlines. This episode also covers SpaceX's stock drop, and why 95% of the company's shares are still locked up and can't be sold yet. Dave and Nate walk through what that means for anyone thinking about buying in now. They also get into private equity: why it's being pushed so hard to individual investors right now, and the real cost of locking up your money for seven years to get in. The takeaway: don't let headlines or hype set your investment strategy. Understand the actual data, stay disciplined, and keep your options open. Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 00:00 - A Volatility Reality Check 0:21 - Welcome And Why SpaceX Matters 3:59 - AI Bubble Claims Put To Data 8:30 - Semiconductors Cool Off And IPOs Wait 14:05 - Concentration Risk In The S&P 500 18:45 - SpaceX Price Drop And The Float Problem 22:25 - Staying Invested Through Normal Drawdowns 24:03 - Lockups, Liquidity Events, And Timing 27:57 - Space Exposure Via ETFs Plus Mag 7 Check 29:50 - FOMO, Feelings, And Long-Term Odds 29:51- Why Private Markets Get Pushed 31:22 - The Seven-Year Wait And Opportunity Cost 36:03 - When Alternatives Can Actually Fit 41:30 - How To Send Questions And Subscribe 42:08 - Required Investing Disclosure Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/ About "Off the Wall": Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Small caps ripped. Gold fell. Bitcoin argued with itself. David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down what actually drove Q2 returns — corporate earnings, not headlines — and why the "Everything Bagel" approach to diversification just proved its worth again. No hot takes. Just the data behind small caps outrunning big tech and nobody talking about it.      Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   00:00 - Speculation Has No Earnings 00:28 - Q2 Review Kickoff And Quick Sports Talk 02:32 - The Quarter's Surprise Winners 06:07 - Earnings Boom Bonds Lag Gold Falls 11:22 - Bitcoin As Risk Asset Debate 12:56 - Valuations Concentration And Market Breadth 19:13 - Diversification Still Works 27:34 - Inflation Expectations And Fuel Spillover 34:35 - Ignoring Headlines And Staying Long Term 36:57 - AMA Requests And Closing   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":  Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

You can get a perfect workout plan and still never get in shape. The science is right there. The exercises are correct. But knowing what to do and actually doing it when you don't feel like it are two completely different problems. That's why personal trainers exist — not to hand you better information, but to make sure you show up and follow through. Investing works the same way. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM make the case that behavior — not strategy — is the real variable in investment returns. They break down dollar-cost averaging as a structural accountability tool, walk through what the Vanguard lump-sum data actually says (and the hidden assumption most people skip over), and show how pre-set triggers turn market sell-offs into buying opportunities instead of reasons to freeze. The TLDR: the best investment strategy isn't the one with the highest expected return. It's the one you'll actually stick with when the market is down and your instincts are telling you to do something about it. Because in investing, you don't win in the spreadsheet. You win in the chair.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 0:33 — Vinyl And Setup 2:42 — Volatility Makes Cash Decisions Hard 3:06 — Dollar Cost Averaging Explained Simply 5:35 — Why 401(k) Autopilot Works 6:57 — Vanguard Data And The Hidden Assumption 10:10 — DCA Triggers To Buy Selloffs 12:30 — Experience Changes How Pullbacks Feel 15:06 — Stop Hunting For The Perfect Bottom 17:50 — Missing Best Days And Political Noise 24:20 — Time Horizons And Cash As An Asset 29:57 — Dalbar Study And The Value Of Advice 24:20 — Wrap-Up Plus AMA Call For Questions   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

The SpaceX IPO may be one of the most anticipated market events of the year, but does that mean investors should rush to participate? In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA challenge some of the biggest assumptions surrounding IPOs, including the belief that buying on day one means getting in early. They explore what history says about IPO performance, why patience can be an advantage, and how investors can gain exposure without getting caught up in the news headlines. They also unpack the market's recent volatility, the surprising sector shifts happening beneath the surface, and why they believe that adaptability is the key to long-term investment success.   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 00:00 - Cold Open And Disclosures 00:27 - AMA Format And Today's Two Questions 01:30 - SpaceX IPO Hype Vs Reality 04:35 - IPO Returns Stats And Lockup Pressure 1255 - Institutions, Allocations, And Retail FOMO 17:35 - Index Funds, ETFs, And Long-Term Exposure 23:53 - Market Volatility And Sector Whiplash 26:52 - Earnings Strength And A Data Process 30:47 - REIT Trivia, Listener Questions, And Subscribe     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures       Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Many investors see passive investing as the safest, most cost-effective way to build wealth. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA challenge that assumption by pulling back the curtain on what can happen to passive investors when the market turns. They break down the hidden risks of matching a benchmark exactly, exploring how a 20% market drop means an automatic 20% hit to your personal wealth if you don't have an active strategy behind you. They cover boredom mindsets, as well as answering the question: Should you be an active or passive investor? The goal of finding the cheapest solution is too simplistic and comes with unnecessary risk. The more strategic goal is to build a portfolio that actively protects your financial freedom.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:  00:00 - Disclosures And Warm Open 01:58 - Active Vs Passive Defined Clearly 03:58 - The V8 Portfolio And Manager Discipline 15:16 - Passive Investing And The Boredom Trap 19:25 - Taxes, Turnover, And Account Type 21:35 - Actively Managing ETFs For Diversification 27:32 - Emerging Markets Breakdown And What Works 32:59 - Listener Questions, Contact Info, Closing Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Something big is happening in corporate America, and it's barely making headlines. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down one of the most interesting stories in Q1 earnings: companies are pouring money into long-term growth instead of handing it back to shareholders. CapEx is up 38%. Buybacks? Up just 1%. They unpack what that means, who's doing the spending, and why the 35-year playbook of returning cash to shareholders may be getting rewritten. Then the conversation shifts to the Fed. Chairman Powell is out, and Kevin Warsh is in. Dave and Nate walk through who Warsh is, why his background is an important piece of the conversation, and what a more flexible, less predictable Fed chair could mean for interest rates, inflation, and your wealth strategy. Finally, they tackle a listener question about using AI to evaluate a portfolio. It's a genuinely useful data collection tool when applied correctly. But when a study shows AI trading bots losing a third of their capital in two weeks across 32 separate tests, the limits become hard to ignore. Dave and Nate break down exactly where AI earns its place in the investment process, where it falls short, and how Monument is actually applying it when it comes to managing your portfolio.       Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   0:00 - Disclosures and Quick Premise  0:26 - AMA Agenda and Market Backdrop  1:46 - Earnings Surprise: CapEx Beats Buybacks  4:06 - Hyperscalers and the AI Spend Cycle  8:12 - Momentum Over Predictions in Portfolios  19:54 - Market Seasonality, Iran, and Staying Invested  23:23 - New Fed Chair and Independence  32:14 - Inflation, Oil, and Rate Decision Uncertainty  36:46 - AI Use Cases and Hallucination Risk  46:22 - Why Trading Bots Often Lose Money  48:06 - Send Questions, Subscribe, and Closing   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic. Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Most investors think their portfolio needs to "pay them" in income. In this episode of Off The Wall, Nate Tonsager, CIPM®, CFA and Dave Armstrong, CFA challenge one of the most common investing habits: chasing income. They walk through how yield gets calculated, why it spikes for the wrong reasons, and how investors end up taking on more risk than they might realize.  They also break down why and how total return drives real outcomes for your financial freedom. Next, the conversation goes deeper into real-life decisions: how much to withdraw, how to think about gifting, and how to make sure your money supports your life while you're here to enjoy it.  The goal isn't to maximize income but to build a portfolio that works for you.      Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   00:00 - Disclosures and Big Picture 00:34 - The Myth About Portfolio Income 01:57 - Total Return in Plain English 10:37 - Sustainable Withdrawal Rate Reality 13:25 - Giving With A Warm Hand 21:16 - Rules Of Thumb And Real Life 23:35 - Listener Questions And Wrap Up Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

The March inflation report looked alarming on the surface. Underneath it, a more nuanced story was unfolding — and the bond market noticed. In this AMA episode of Off The Wall, Dave and Nate separate signal from noise across three questions they've been hearing most from clients: what's actually driving inflation right now, why the market recovered so fast, and what AI really means for the economy and your business. They break down headline versus core CPI, what 25 years of price data reveals about where inflation actually lives, and why the TIPS market's expectations matter more than any single monthly report. Then they get into the market recovery, including one statistic that's genuinely unprecedented since 1928, and what concentration in the Magnificent Seven means for your portfolio going forward.     Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:   0:00 — Disclosures & Opening Banter  03:06 — AMA Topics Set for Today  04:14 — Inflation Report Explained Beyond Headlines  10:06 — Core CPI & Category Winners  15:15 — The 25-Year Inflation Scorecard  21:20 — Oil Shock & Bond Market Signals  27:41 — What Inflation Means for Portfolios  32:11 — Market Recovery & Why It Happened  37:48 — Politics vs. Investing Reality Checks  43:37 — Big Rally Stats & What They Suggest   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

The headlines said Q1 2026 was rough. The data we're watching tells a different story. In this Q1 Market review, Dave Armstrong and Nate Tonsager set aside the noise — yes, including the Iran conflict they've already covered at length — and dig into what was actually happening beneath the surface of the markets in Q1 2026. Spoiler: it was a lot more interesting than a -3.5% S&P 500 reading suggests. Nate kicks things off with an underappreciated housing market update: prices are easing without mortgage rates having to do the heavy lifting — and why that's actually a healthy sign for the broader economy. Dave follows with a breakdown of what the market's internal health really looked like last quarter, using sector performance data to show how energy, materials, utilities, consumer staples, and industrials were quietly carrying significant weight while big tech grabbed all the negative headlines. Then the conversation turns to Bitcoin. Nate pulls no punches: in his view, Bitcoin is a trading asset — not an investing asset, not digital gold. Dave riffs on why he'd call it something closer to "digital guessing" — and why that's not necessarily a dealbreaker, as long as you're honest about what you're doing and how much of your portfolio you're putting at risk. Think of it like the casino: a few chips on the roulette table is fine. Going all in on red? That's a different conversation. It's one of their favorite episode formats — no guests, no guardrails, just two portfolio strategists riffing on what actually mattered last quarter and what investors should be paying attention to going into Q2.       Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 0:00 — Opening Claim: Bitcoin Is Not an Investment  0:22 — Welcome and Q1 Quarterly Review Setup  1:49 — Housing Affordability Is Quietly Getting Better  5:24 — Supply Is Up and 2008 Fears Are Overblown  9:38 — Why Q1 Looked Worse Than It Really Was  11:28 — Moving Averages, Market Breadth and Hidden Strength  13:04 — The Sectors That Quietly Won the Quarter  15:51 — Concentration Risk and Data Driven Rotation  20:21 — Bitcoin Is a Trading Asset, Not an Investment  29:54 — Crypto, Gold and the Art of Educated Guessing  33:24 — Closing Thoughts, Brackets and How to Reach Us   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":    Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

When markets get volatile, the instinct is to react. That's usually where investors go wrong. With oil prices rising, geopolitical tensions escalating, and headlines driving uncertainty, it's easy to assume this time is different. But beneath the noise, the same core principles still apply. In this AMA episode of Off The Wall, Nate and Dave break down what rising oil prices really mean for inflation and interest rates, how the Fed is thinking about rate cuts in a more uncertain environment, and why most market shocks tend to be temporary, even when they don't feel like it. They also unpack what's happening inside private credit markets, why liquidity matters more than yield, and how misunderstood risks are starting to surface now that conditions have tightened. From military strategy analogies to portfolio construction, this episode is a reminder that volatility isn't something to avoid, it's something to plan for. Because the biggest risk in moments like this isn't the market. It's making the wrong move at the wrong time.   Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures   Episode Timeline/Key Highlights: 0:00 — Start Here: Don't Panic 3:47 — Today's Big Questions 6:21 — Oil Prices Are Rising - Here's What That Means 12:47 — Why Oil Spikes May Not Last 15:05 — War, Headlines, and Market Reactions 21:50 — Why Cash Planning Matters More Than Timing 25:51 — Private Credit, Explained Simply 30:16 — What's Breaking in Private Credit 34:31 — Where Opportunity Is Showing Up Now 37:53 — Ask Us Anything + Final Thoughts   Connect with Monument Wealth Management:    Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/   Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#   Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/   Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement   Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit   Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/   Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/   About "Off the Wall":  Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.   Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com