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Rising bond yields are raising questions about global growth and corporate funding conditions. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors, with UK inflation, China’s economic data and US earnings in focus. UK: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget Employment, CPI, public finances and retail sales arrive ahead of the 28 October Budget and 5 November Bank of England meeting. With a November rate rise largely priced, Neil considers second-round inflation risks, the potential duration of the tightening cycle and how fiscal policy could weigh on growth into 2027. Global markets: China GDP and the impact of higher yields China’s Q3 GDP and September activity data provide an update on the economic backdrop. October’s global flash PMIs will be watched for signs that higher yields are affecting activity and widening differences between economies. German ZEW and Eurozone consumer confidence also feature, alongside Neil’s expectation of a December European Central Bank rate rise. US: Earnings, AI financing and credit pressures A busy earnings week brings results from Netflix, AT&T, IBM, Meta and Tesla. The discussion examines funding pressures in more leveraged parts of the AI sector and the interaction between bond yields, credit and risk assets. US-Iran and wider regional developments remain on the watchlist. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and Introductions 00:29 UK Data and Budget Watch 02:08 Global Growth and Central Banks 03:50 US Earnings and Credit 05:06 Weekend Sport and Diwali 05:52 Long and Short Picks 06:23 Wrap-Up and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Oil, Inflation and the Global Growth Outlook Higher oil prices, rising bond yields and fiscal pressures are complicating the global growth outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the implications for inflation, interest rates and financial markets, alongside the key releases ahead for professional investors. In the UK, August GDP will be scrutinised for signs of slowing growth amid energy headwinds and weaker housing indicators. Rising gilt yields add pressure ahead of the 28 October budget, with Bank of England commentary providing further insight into the policy outlook. In Europe, France’s budget stalemate and widening credit spreads raise concerns about spillovers into bonds, equities and the euro. European Central Bank commentary, RBA minutes and Chinese inflation data are in focus, alongside Brazil’s market response to its presidential election. In the US, September CPI and retail sales will help markets assess inflation pressures, consumer demand and the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Third-quarter earnings season begins, while Fed Governor Waller’s commentary and developments involving Iran remain important influences on sentiment. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and Introductions 00:29 UK GDP, Fiscal Pressures and the Bank of England 02:18 Global Yields, French Fiscal Risks and the ECB 04:41 US Inflation, the Federal Reserve and Earnings 06:19 Weekend Sport 07:19 Closing Remarks and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Rising bond yields and widening European credit spreads are sharpening the focus on fiscal pressures and interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the implications for global markets and the key economic releases and central bank signals to watch in the week ahead. In the UK, stronger Q2 GDP sits alongside persistent energy price pressures and elevated government borrowing costs. With 30-year gilt yields reaching 6.07%, attention turns to potential contagion from European bond markets and the growth, inflation and fiscal challenges facing the 28 October budget. In Europe, French budget proposals have unsettled credit markets, with Italian spreads also widening. Could these pressures temper the European Central Bank’s hawkish tone? September ECB minutes, policy speeches and services PMIs will provide further context. The global calendar also brings Bank of Japan commentary, expectations for a December rate rise, Brazil’s election and an anticipated Reserve Bank of India hike. In the US, payrolls, ISM services and trade data will help assess the growth outlook, including how AI investment feeds through to imports. Federal Reserve meeting minutes will inform the interest rate debate, while the approaching Q3 earnings season will offer fresh evidence on earnings growth and higher funding costs. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:24 UK growth, inflation and gilt yields 02:14 European credit pressures and the ECB 03:11 Global central banks and Brazil’s election 03:54 US payrolls and the Fed outlook 05:26 Weekend sport 06:11 The long and short 06:42 Closing and disclaimers The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Rising oil prices and bond yields are bringing the balance between inflation and growth into sharper focus. In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the implications for global markets and the economic calendar ahead. In the UK, higher energy costs and gilt yields are adding pressure ahead of the 28 October Budget. The discussion considers the economy’s underlying fragility and the outlook for interest rates, with Bank of England commentary, consumer credit and the final second-quarter GDP release in focus.  Global central banks continue to follow differing policy paths. Following decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank, attention turns to an expected 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of Australia hike and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions. Eurozone inflation and European Central Bank commentary will help frame expectations for the timing of further rate increases.  In the US, non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation headline the data calendar, with expectations for slower job growth and unchanged inflation readings. Consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and ISM manufacturing provide further context, alongside Federal Reserve commentary and geopolitical developments.  For professional investors only. Information, data and views are as at the time of recording.  Chapters 00:00 Introduction 00:33 UK: Oil Prices and Rising Gilt Yields 01:43 UK Data and the October Budget 02:32 Global Central Banks and Inflation 04:44 US Payrolls, PCE Inflation and the Federal Reserve 06:44 Weekend Sport: Football, Cricket and Formula 1 07:33 The Long & Short Picks 07:55 Wrap-up and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Oil prices, inflation risks and a more hawkish global policy backdrop are reshaping the outlook for central banks and financial conditions. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75%, alongside changes to quantitative tightening and three MPC votes for an immediate 25bp hike. With Governor Bailey signalling that persistent oil prices or Middle East tensions could influence the November outlook, they assess why market pricing for around 100bp of UK tightening may be difficult to reconcile with a still-fragile economy and pressure on public finances. The discussion then turns to the broader global monetary policy picture. Following recent 25bp rate increases from the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, attention shifts to the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank, alongside September flash PMIs and the growing impact of the energy shock on global financial conditions. In the US, the Fed’s latest hike and more hawkish messaging point to a reduced tolerance for above-target inflation. Despite that shift, Neil continues to see underlying disinflation and a lower peak in US interest rates than markets currently price, absent a further significant energy shock. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introduction 00:27 Bank of England: rates on hold 01:47 UK economy and public finances 02:39 Global central banks 04:01 Oil shock and September PMIs 05:03 Federal Reserve hike and policy outlook 06:04 US macro watchlist 06:31 Weekend sports roundup 07:22 Long and Short picks 07:42 Wrap-up and disclosures For professional investors only. The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Energy prices are reshaping the global inflation and interest-rate outlook, with oil and natural gas feeding through to bond markets and central-bank expectations. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week ahead, beginning in the UK, where July GDP surprised to the upside. Neil remains cautious about extrapolating the rebound, however, as renewed rises in oil and, importantly for Europe, natural gas tighten financial conditions and contribute to higher gilt yields. Attention turns to UK employment, inflation and retail sales, alongside a Bank of England meeting that is expected to leave rates unchanged, with November increasingly in focus. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with Christine Lagarde highlighting downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. Markets are now pricing further tightening, while next week also brings a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting, China data, inflation releases from India and Poland, and a Brazilian policy decision. In the US, renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices have contributed to a sharp rise in Treasury yields and wider pressure across global bond markets. The US inflation print will be critical for the Federal Reserve outlook, while still-low volatility across equities, credit and FX leaves Neil focused on the potential value of long-volatility strategies. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:27 UK growth and Bank of England outlook 02:38 ECB takeaways and the global policy outlook 04:37 US inflation, the Fed and bond-market risks 06:41 Weekend sports roundup 07:30 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone. In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, with the economy still appearing too weak to support further rate hikes. They also look at the outlook for the yen and Bank of Japan policy, rising inflation risks in Australia, and a busy global calendar of inflation data and central bank meetings. In the US, payrolls, inflation and debt sustainability remain central to the outlook. With markets reassessing the path for Federal Reserve policy, next week’s CPI release could prove important for rate expectations, financial conditions and the broader growth outlook. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 Bond sell-off and ECB outlook 02:24 UK fiscal risks and Bank of England watch 03:35 Japan, Australia and global data 04:24 US growth, inflation and Fed path 06:34 Weekend sports watchlist 07:35 Long and short picks 08:09 Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fiscal outlook is less certain as Prime Minister Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions. Eurizon SLJ Capital remains cautious on the UK macro outlook into September and beyond. Globally, attention turns to Australian inflation projections, an expected 25-basis-point RBNZ rate increase, Japanese retail sales and industrial production, and China’s August PMI data. In the Eurozone, August flash inflation arrives ahead of the ECB’s September meeting, while natural gas prices could prove increasingly important for the monetary policy path beyond September. In the US, the focus shifts decisively back to the economic data following the latest policy update from Fed Chair Warsh. JOLTS, ISM manufacturing and services, ADP payrolls, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and the trade balance all lead into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the labour market a key input into the Fed reaction function and the US yield curve. Neil also looks ahead to the long bank holiday weekend, including rugby, cricket, Premier League football, Notting Hill Carnival and Reading Festival. Chapters 00:00 Show intro 00:29 September watchlist: UK 00:42 UK data and monetary policy 01:19 UK politics and fiscal uncertainty 01:58 Global data roundup 02:53 Eurozone inflation and the ECB 03:45 US payrolls week 04:52 US data calendar 05:36 Long weekend sport 06:33 Festival banter and wrap-up 07:15 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop shaped by UK fiscal uncertainty, renewed inflation concerns, rising long-end bond yields and the policy signals investors will be watching at Jackson Hole. In the UK, a higher inflation print was driven by energy price-cap changes, while services and labour cost growth continued to ease. Weak retail sales, a disappointing fiscal print and concerns around the jobs market remain consistent with a cautious view of the UK economy and have dovish implications for the Bank of England. Attention now turns to the Governor’s comments in Wyoming and, further ahead, the 28 October Budget under the new Prime Minister. Globally, renewed US-Iran tensions have brought energy prices, particularly European gas, back into focus alongside inflation concerns. Fiscal uncertainty in France and heavier government and hyperscaler debt issuance have also contributed to higher yields at the long end of global curves. Next week brings RBA minutes, German Ifo, a broad range of EM inflation and central bank events, and the Jackson Hole gathering. In the US, Fed minutes highlighted the committee’s sensitivity to inflation, while Treasury measures aimed at supporting the long end of the bond market are viewed as negative for the dollar. Focus now shifts to Jackson Hole and the Fed reaction function, with NVIDIA earnings providing another important market event. Chapters 00:00 Show Intro 00:33 UK Outlook 02:13 Global Macro Watchlist 03:52 US Rates and Policy 05:58 Weekend Sports Radar 06:42 Long and Short Picks 06:59 Wrap Up and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings. As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment. Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s flash PMIs. The ECB meeting takes centre stage, although President Lagarde is expected to offer limited forward guidance. In the US, a light data calendar and the Fed blackout period shift attention towards Iran-related geopolitics, energy prices and Q2 earnings. Results from Google, Texas Instruments, Tesla and AT&T will intensify the debate around AI investment, semiconductor demand, earnings growth and valuations. 00:00 Show introduction 00:29 UK politics and economic data 02:40 ECB meeting and the global calendar 04:29 US geopolitics and Q2 earnings 05:51 Weekend sports watchlist 06:56 Long and short picks 07:20 Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macroeconomic and market themes facing professional investors in the week ahead. In the UK, attention turns to the Parliamentary Labour Party’s leadership nomination deadline and the policy direction of the next administration. Neil considers the commitment to the existing fiscal rules, the fragile backdrop for output, employment and productivity, and the latest GDP, trade and industrial production data. He also examines the prospect of a more dovish Bank of England during the second half of the year and the importance of maintaining credibility in the gilt market. Across Europe, the discussion covers the court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to contest the next French presidential election, persistent deficit pressures and the requirement for greater defence spending. With the ECB entering its blackout period, markets will also assess the revised eurozone inflation figures and the potential path of interest rates. Further afield, the focus shifts to China’s second-quarter GDP and June activity data, a potential 25-basis-point rate increase in South Korea, international trade releases and TSMC’s latest earnings. In the US, geopolitical developments involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine remain important for energy prices and inflation. A major run of economic releases—including CPI, PPI, retail sales, housing and sentiment data—will help shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and the opening of the second-quarter earnings season will provide further direction for markets. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introduction 00:29 UK politics, economic data and the Bank of England 02:08 European deficits, China data and the global outlook 03:49 US geopolitics, inflation and Federal Reserve policy 05:54 The weekend sports radar 06:55 Neil’s long and short picks 07:12 Closing remarks and disclosures This podcast is intended for professional investors only. Information, data and views were accurate at the time of recording. The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Falling oil prices are beginning to reshape the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and global interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the macroeconomic themes likely to drive markets in the week ahead, including continued UK fiscal uncertainty, the increasingly dovish signals from major central banks and the implications of lower energy prices for rate expectations. In the UK, they consider the political and fiscal backdrop, the apparent £15 billion budget shortfall and the commitment to existing fiscal rules that has so far helped keep gilt markets calm. They also examine Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments at Sintra, where falling energy prices, weakening activity, softer labour markets and a widening output gap supported a more dovish policy narrative. The discussion then turns to the global economy, covering stabilising Chinese PMIs, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preference to pause and assess, a strong Japanese Tankan survey and a softer Eurozone inflation picture. Key data to watch include Australian inflation, Eurozone investor confidence and retail sales, Japanese cash earnings, Chinese CPI and PPI, and a busy schedule of emerging-market central bank meetings and inflation releases. In the US, attention remains on payrolls and the emerging policy stance of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. His comments on AI-led supply-side expansion, stronger productivity, higher potential growth and declining inflation risks pointed towards a more dovish interpretation, despite his reluctance to provide explicit forward guidance. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introduction 00:29 UK politics, fiscal uncertainty and gilts 02:07 Global macroeconomic outlook 03:58 The Federal Reserve, Warsh and payrolls 06:01 Weekend watchlist 07:22 Long and short picks 07:46 Closing remarks and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to review a busy week for macro markets and look ahead to the key themes investors will be watching next. In the UK, softer CPI and PPI, firmer employment data, and stronger retail sales added to a more constructive data backdrop. The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75 percent, with two hawkish dissents, but Eurizon SLJ’s view remains that rates are likely to stay on hold through the summer, with Bank Rate pricing lower towards the end of 2026. Neil also discusses why the Makerfield by-election could keep gilt markets focused on fiscal risks and financial conditions. Globally, central banks remained active, with policy holds from several major central banks, rate hikes in the Philippines and Indonesia, and a rate cut in Brazil. The US-Iran MoU also helped lower oil prices and improve global risk sentiment, although uncertainty around the Middle East remains. In the US, Neil reviews the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets interpreted the updated dots and PCE projections as hawkish, but Eurizon SLJ continues to expect eventual US rate cuts, particularly if oil supply risks continue to ease. Next week’s calendar is lighter, with attention on Australian data, ECB inflation expectations, global flash PMIs, oil prices, US yields, and the dollar. For professional investors only. Information, data, and views were accurate as at the time of recording. Chapters 00:00 Show introduction 00:29 UK data and Bank of England 02:12 Politics and gilts 02:42 Global central banks 03:25 Middle East and oil 04:59 US Fed and outlook 07:18 Weekend watchlist 08:07 Long and short picks 08:30 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a busy macro week, led by the UK, where markets face a heavy run of data, a Bank of England decision, and a politically sensitive by-election. In the UK, they discuss the backdrop after a negative April GDP print and a cabinet resignation, before looking ahead to the Makerfield by-election, May CPI, employment data, retail sales and the BoE meeting. Neil outlines why the bar for further rate hikes remains high, even if additional MPC dissent is possible, and why rates may still be biased lower by year-end. They also assess a packed global central bank calendar, including the ECB’s 25bp hike to 2.25%, higher inflation forecasts, lower growth projections, the RBA’s likely hold, and the Bank of Japan’s potential move to 1% amid yen weakness. The discussion also covers China’s May data and policy decisions in Chile, Russia and Indonesia. In the US, attention turns to retail sales, Iran-related headlines, the SpaceX IPO and a closely watched FOMC meeting, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, where changes to communication and projections could prove as important as the rate decision itself. The episode closes with Neil’s weekend watchlist, including cricket, Formula 1, tennis and the FIFA World Cup, before the team reveal what they are long and short heading into the weekend. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions  00:29 UK week ahead  01:51 Bank of England outlook  02:44 Global central banks  04:40 US Fed, data and markets  06:22 Weekend watchlist  07:06 Long and short picks  07:31 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a holiday-shortened week shaped by geopolitics, energy risks, and shifting central bank reaction functions. In the UK, weaker labour, inflation, retail sales, and PMI data have pushed growth fragility back into focus, while the RBA signals a pause and the ECB faces a more acute policy dilemma. Neil also looks ahead to key data from Europe, Japan, and the US, including core PCE, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence, with Strait of Hormuz risks still capable of driving oil and broader market volatility. Chapters 00:00 Show Intro  00:29 UK and RBA Outlook  02:42 Global Data Watch  04:31 US Markets and Geopolitics  06:07 Long Weekend Sports Picks  06:48 Long and Short Trades  07:19 Wrap-Up and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.