Advertise on podcast: The Outthinking Investor with Daleep Singh

Markets trade on more than just economic data. They trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections. In a world searching for a new equilibrium, old assumptions are expensive mistakes. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. Now, Daleep is sharing his perspectives with you. On PGIM's The Outthinking Investor, Daleep sits down with prominent economists, technologists, policymakers, and market veterans to map out the full distribution of what comes next—and why it matters.

Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor. Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conversation about anticipating the onset of big market cycles and constructing balanced portfolios for new regimes. They discuss the impact of idiosyncratic risks and geopolitical shifts; the evolution of public and private credit markets; AI's transformative influence on the global economy; the five major forces that create big cycles; and the interplay between sovereign debt, the U.S. dollar, gold, and central banks. To understand big cycles, investors must look beyond the headlines and through a historical lens, Dalio explains. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.  

The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a period of global uncertainty. One estimate from McKinsey & Co. suggests that demand for new and updated digital infrastructure will require an estimated $19 trillion in investments through 2040. Much of this capital will come from institutional investors. Supply-demand dynamics, the impact of new innovations, and the pace of adoption will help guide investors as they determine how to allocate their exposure to AI. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores growth opportunities and potential challenges across the AI ecosystem. Experts discuss sectors that stand to benefit from AI, intense demand for AI infrastructure, managing obsolescence risk, and whether AI can deliver on expectations for productivity and returns. Our guests are: Richard Waters, Technology Writer-at-Large for the Financial Times Owen Hyde, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Jennison Learn more about the AI boom by visiting Jennison's AI Resource Center (https://www.jennison.com/campaignCountry/en/institutional/perspectives/ai-resource-center). Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industries, from furniture to automobiles. But moving factories and building out domestic manufacturing capacity will likely face some speedbumps amid mismatches in labor, materials and costs. New innovations like factory automation bring their own set of implementation challenges. Understanding how the manufacturing outlook is evolving will be crucial as investors sort out potential winning and losing regions and industries. As factories prepare for the future, institutional investors are well positioned to provide the long-term capital that manufacturers seek to modernize operations, create more resilient supply chains, and grow.  This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a deep dive into trade imbalances and tariffs; how manufacturers are dealing with macro uncertainty; manufacturing's role in supporting labor markets and the broader economy; potential obstacles that could slow reshoring; and portfolio strategies for capturing opportunities amid a manufacturing renaissance.    Our guests are:  Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers  Julius Krein, editor of policy journal American Affairs and head of policy at the New American Industrial Alliance  Josh Shipley, executive managing director and head of Europe at PGIM, overseeing corporate finance offices in the region  Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.  To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com. 

Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures.  This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores macro implications from taxes and tariffs, how policy changes are shaping the way investors allocate capital, and why economic growth could be more resilient against higher tariffs than in the past.  Our guests are: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office Kimberly Clausing, professor of tax law and policy at UCLA School of Law and former lead economist in the US Treasury's Office of Tax Policy Jeffrey Young, Head of Investment Strategy for PGIM's quant team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where volatility is testing even the most seasoned investors. While there's no single recipe for success, accomplished long-term investors tend to remain disciplined, shut out the noise from a constant whirlwind of headlines, and avoid emotionally charged decisions. This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings lessons from Wall Street and the evolution of financial markets to help investors look beyond uncertainty and identify long-term opportunities. The discussion covers economic resilience and its portfolio implications; growth in ETFs; how alternatives can be well-suited for long-term capital; tax-loss harvesting through direct indexing; steering portfolios through unexpected crises; and more. Our guests are: Barry Ritholtz, Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors that Destroy Wealth—And How to Avoid Them" Scott Bok, former chairman and CEO of investment banking firm Greenhill & Company and author of "Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing" Jim Devaney, PGIM's Head of US Distribution for the retail market Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition between great powers. Government leaders are increasingly focused on solidifying economic security through trade leverage, tariffs, sanctions and other measures. As a result, potential new investment risks and opportunities are emerging. This episode of The Outthinking Investor discusses how investors can measure their portfolio's exposure to geoeconomic shifts, which economies and sectors could benefit amid a realignment in supply chains, whether the US dollar can maintain its global dominance, and investment strategies that could potentially mitigate risk and capitalize on new opportunities. Our guests are: Matteo Maggiori, finance professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business Joseph Nye, political scientist and former Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst at PGIM Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a "complicated logistical dance," as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—providing universal lessons for businesses and investors. Amid a turbulent outlook, this episode explores how airlines are addressing a host of business challenges, from the threat of aircraft tariffs to volatile fuel costs and customer demand. Topics include business strategies that drive revenues and boost profits, the future of business and leisure travel, navigating antiquated air traffic control systems, the outlook for low-cost carriers, and reflections on United Airlines' turnaround. Our guests are: Oscar Munoz, former United Airlines Chairman and CEO Jack Fitzsimmons, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's US Leveraged Finance Credit Research team Sean Goodier, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's European Investment Grade Credit Research team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be leveraged to achieve political goals. Meanwhile, nations are laying out plans to increase defense spending—potentially altering the outlook for productivity, industrial activity, and economic growth. With economic warfare becoming a lasting feature of the investment environment, new winners and losers based on country, region, sector and asset class could emerge. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores how economic warfare, national security concerns, and friend-shoring in global trade are creating new implications for investors to consider. Our guests are: Edward Fishman, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and author of the new book, "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income's Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist Jeff Rathke, President of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University and former American diplomat Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effectively during trading days. In 1993, the first ETF in the US emerged: SPY. With one trade, investors could buy or sell a basket of stocks that tracked companies in the S&P 500. ETFs have since revolutionized investing. A combination of liquidity, diversification, tax efficiency and ease of access has helped ETFs attract trillions of dollars in capital. A 2019 regulatory update in the US, which made it easier to launch new ETFs, paved the way for further expansion, fueled by active strategies that are driving the next phase of growth. Offering access to actively managed strategies across stocks, bonds and alternatives, active ETFs surpassed $1 trillion in global assets under management for the first time in 2024. Our guests are Matt Collins, CFA, Head of ETFs at PGIM Investments; Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox"; and Dave Nadig, independent financial futurist and former CEO of ETF.com. Learn more about PGIM ETFs at PGIM.com/investments/exchange-traded-funds-etfs. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player's hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors about sizing their bets, managing risk, and making better decisions for their portfolio? This episode is not intended to promote gambling or equate investing to gambling. This episode of The Outthinking Investor delivers insights on the benefits of probabilistic thinking, the best methods for analyzing portfolio decisions, and how investors could develop a sound decision-making process for targeting returns - even when facing uncertainty and market volatility.   Our guests are Annie Duke, a decision scientist, former world-class professional poker player, and the author of books including "Thinking in Bets" and "Quit"; Tina Lindstrom, Head of Oil Derivatives Trading for North America at Marex; and Adam Papallo, Head of Implementation Research at PGIM Quantitative Solutions.  Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. 

The world's superpowers are engaging in a different type of arms race beyond the battlefield. With technology advancing at a speedy pace, a global competition for all the ingredients necessary to support artificial intelligence—from data centers and semiconductors to the AI models themselves—is heating up. Not only do these ingredients form the building blocks of today's economy, but building a secure and reliable flow of data is also considered a key national security objective. The UK designated data centers as critical national infrastructure in 2024, underlining how governments are now prioritizing energy supply, cybersecurity, and efforts to guard the digital world from adversaries. This race for technological supremacy, coupled with growing private-sector demand related to AI and cloud computing, is propelling new investment opportunities. This episode of The Outthinking Investor covers the opportunities, challenges, and security considerations at play amid rapid innovation in AI and a global battle for technological supremacy. Topics include the intersection of AI, chips and national security; governments' pursuit of secure and reliable supply chains; and real estate opportunities created by rapid growth in hyperscale data centers. Our guests are Chris Miller, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University and author of the book "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology"; William Reinsch, senior adviser with the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Morgan Laughlin, Global Head of Data Center Investments at PGIM Real Estate. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investors. A complex global economy often takes unexpected turns, and macro disruptions and uncertainty present challenges for those navigating financial markets. But with this knowledge, investors could make better decisions by challenging conventional wisdom and taking a long-term view. The Season 5 premiere of The Outthinking Investor explores how investors can steer through economic volatility and pursue sound portfolio construction for the long run. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group's Global Chief Economist, and Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief Investment Strategist, discuss the forces that may drive change in the economy, potential risks to the outlook, how market fears can distract from real long-term consequences, emerging opportunities in fixed-income markets, and structural changes resulting from a higher level of expected interest rates. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected]., or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China's Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape's evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today's geopolitical fractures amid global competition over trade, technology and defense. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the ways in which nations are balancing economic and security priorities, and how investors can leverage geopolitical analysis to make informed portfolio decisions in a changing world. Our guests are Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense and author of "A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times"; Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, former Dean of the Stanford School of Business and co-author of "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World"; and Magdalena Polan, PGIM Fixed Income's Head of Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Research. Topics include the three main forces affecting the global economy, how national defense is influencing economic policy, the geopolitical factors impacting trade flows and emerging markets, and whether the peace dividend is evaporating. To learn more about the macroeconomic and investment implications of geopolitical risks, explore PGIM's 2024 Global Risk Report, Resilient Investing Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, at PGIM.com. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected].

The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act's tax reductions for individuals are due to expire in 2025, setting the stage for another round of changes to the tax code. Europe faces difficult budget choices amid calls for the bloc to double down on industrial policy and implement capital markets reforms to boost growth—the subject of a highly anticipated report from Mario Draghi. In the face of rapid economic changes and a shifting political landscape, investors need to consider how fiscal policies will influence the evolving investment outlook. Glenn Hubbard and Jason Furman, former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, join PGIM Fixed Income's Lead Geopolitical Analyst Mehill Marku in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The discussion covers major economic challenges facing policymakers, the effects of tariffs on inflation, trade flows, and the broader economy, and the future of U.S. tax policies. Additionally, they explore efforts to boost Europe's economic competitiveness, the importance of remaining vigilant against potential market shocks, and investment strategies to mitigate risks from fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.