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Tuesday night was the biggest rebuke of Donald Trump and MAGA that we've seen yet, by a wide margin. It was so big, in fact, that we're asking much bigger questions about how much of the country is up for grabs. Nate Silver, host of Crooked Media's Still Counting and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletter, joins Sarah to discuss the election results and how they could reverberate far, far beyond 2026. Show links:Silver BulletinThe Still Counting PodcastNate’s Trump approval rating graphic Go to https://DrinkAG1.com/THEFOCUSGROUP and for a limited time, get a free Immune Support Bundle, including a bottle of Omega-3 fish oil and a bottle of Vitamin D3K2, with your first subscription order of AG1 Next Gen or AG1 Pro. Get $20 off your first subscription order of Cometeer coffee at https://Cometeer.com/THEFOCUSGROUP or use code THEFOCUSGROUP for $20 off.

The midterm elections are almost here, and voters and podcast hosts alike are about to lose their minds. The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter is back for one last hurrah before the midterms, and after a bit of lesbian-specific chit chat, she and Sarah discuss how big the blue wave could get on Tuesday, and voters' hilarious comments about how fed up they are with the deluge of political advertising. Then they get into the crucial race for governor in Georgia and the Alaska Senate race, with its multiple Dans Sullivan. Show links:Subscribe to the Cook Political Report.Join Cook's post-election briefing.Watch Cook's pre-election briefing on Monday, November 2 on Substack and YouTube.

Maine is getting a lot of national attention for such a small state. Sen. Susan Collins is trying to win a sixth term despite losing some shine of off her reputation as an "independent" senator. A lot of former Collins voters are ready for her to go, but still harbor a lot of goodwill towards her. Collins' opponent isn't inspiring much confidence from them, either. Midcoast Villager deputy editor Alex Seitz-Wald joins to discuss how Mainers are feeling about her this year, where they're finding Troy Jackson lacking, and some of the other local issues that may play a big role in this race. Get $20 off your first order of Cometeer coffee at https://Cometeer.com/THEFOCUSGROUP or use code THEFOCUSGROUP for $20 off. For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box. Show links:Alex's appearance on The Bulwark Daily in JulyThe Midcoast Villager

There are a lot of red states with big elections this year where Democrats are 'sayin' there's a chance,' like Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, or Iowa, where they may have more than just a chance. The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey joins Sarah to talk about her travels with Iowa's two leading Democratic candidates, the other long shots Democrats are eyeing in red states, and what disaffected Trump voters are saying about all of it. Go to https://Leesa.com for up to 30% off mattresses during their Evergreen Fall Savings Sale, PLUS get an extra $50 off with promo code FOCUSGROUP. Show links:Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter on Ashley HinsonElaine Godfrey: A Democrat in Name OnlyElaine Godfrey: Democrats Might Actually Win IowaElaine Godfrey: The GOP’s Culture-War Hail Mary The Bulwark's October Surprise sale ends soon. Get 30% off your annual subscription through SUNDAY.

Republicans have been on a long winning streak in Florida...but they might be playing defense in 2026...because they have one candidate who's REALLY into data centers, and another candidate running what's being called a 'Joe Biden Basement' campaign. And the Democratic ticket may be one of the oddest couples in the history of politics, led by a former Republican Congressman (David Jolly) and a DSA-aligned state legislator (Angie Nixon). POLITICO's Kimberly Leonard joins Sarah to discuss whether Florida is back in the 'swing state' column in 2026. Go to https://kachava.com and use code thefocusgroup for 15% off your first order. Go to https://DrinkAG1.com/THEFOCUSGROUP and for a limited time, get a free Immune Support Bundle, including a bottle of Omega-3 fish oil and a bottle of Vitamin D3K2, with your first subscription order of AG1 Next Gen or AG1 Pro. Tickets are on sale for CrookedCon on November 7 in Washington. Get discounted tickets at https://CrookedCon.com/Tickets, with code Bulwark20. SARAH IS MAD ABOUT THIS SALE: Get 30% off an annual Bulwark+ subscription at https://TheBulwark.com/SURPRISE before she changes her mind.

It’s October, and the political environment is really, really, REALLY bad for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report editor in chief Amy Walter explains how Cook is approaching its race ratings this year, and she and Sarah discuss the ever-growing list of reasons swing voters are mad about the state of the country, discuss Michigan’s Senate race and Sarah’s latest Focus Group Newsletter, and have a more high-minded discussion about how AI is affecting voters’ information diets (and the next election). Show links:Sarah’s Michigan Focus Group Newsletter Subscribe to the Cook Political Report!CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator) CPR’s “Find a Race” sorterCPR’s Battleground District Project

Ohio used to be the biggest swing state in the country. It's turned pretty red, (Trump won it by 11 points in 2024) but it's very hotly contested this year, and there's one big overarching local issue driving it. Signal Ohio state government and politics reporter Andrew Tobias joins Sarah to break down the major players. Show links:Signal OhioSarah's Focus Group Newsletter on Vivek RamaswamySarah's Thank You to the Bulwark Community (Comment here for her AMA next Friday) For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box. Embrace your salty side. Go to https://KaChava.com and use code thefocusgroup for 15% off your first order. Send questions for the show to [email protected].

Recorded on Monday, Sept. 14 and the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, Sarah and Pod Save America’s Dan Pfeiffer discuss her book, How to Eat an Elephant, what focus groups are, why she does them, and she uncorks some fresh focus group content on-stage. Sarah will be back behind the mic next week. For a limited time, save 20% on your first subscription order of AG1 Next Gen or AG1 Pro at https://DrinkAG1.com/THEFOCUSGROUP.

Against all odds, Democrats still have a chance in the Texas Senate race. So, is it because Ken Paxton is bad, or because of James Talarico's Nice Young Man energy? Turns out, both. Veteran Texas journalist Christopher Hooks of Texas Monthly joins Sarah to talk about Ken Paxton's sordid history in Texas Republican politics, how Texas Trump voters are responding to James Talarico, whether the race for governor may turn competitive, and how data centers and Flock surveillance cameras are presenting an opportunity to recapture some disaffected Trump voters. Go to https://Leesa.com for 30% off select mattresses during their Labor Day sale, PLUS get an extra $50 off with promo code FOCUSGROUP, exclusive for my listeners. Get tickets for our Ohio live show, benefitting the Springfield, OH community. Subscribe to Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter for more exclusive insights on the Texas race this coming Tuesday. Show Links:Chris Hooks: Ken Paxton Now Has to Do the Unthinkable: Try

North Carolina has been a difficult nut for Democrats to crack for nearly two decades. But relatively popular former Gov. Roy Cooper appears to be on the verge of changing that this year, partly because NOBODY knows who his opponent is. Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper joins Sarah to discuss this year's U.S. Senate race, the House landscape in North Carolina and whether some recent successes for Democrats can translate into carrying the state in 2028. Become a Bulwark+ member to receive Sarah's upcoming Focus Group Newsletter. Show links:By Chris Cooper: Anatomy of a Purple State

Why is 80-year-old Ed Markey surviving a Democratic revolt against aging politicians? Sarah Longwell and GBH’s Adam Reilly listen to Massachusetts voters explain why Rep. Seth Moulton’s 'new generation' argument isn’t landing—and what the race reveals about what Democratic voters really want. Plus, they discuss Moulton’s attacks on Markey, his damaging comments about trans athletes, and a brutal debate exchange over AI. Nobody else in political media does quite what we do with these focus groups: talking to voters week after week and letting you hear for yourself what’s actually driving their decisions. If you’re able, please considering becoming a paid member of the Bulwark and help keep this one-of-a-kind project going.

Amy Walter returns to the pod for a pundit therapy session. She and Sarah discuss: A recent focus group of Georgia swing voters, and what they think of Sen. Jon Ossoff and his opponent. The massive polling misses in the Wisconsin and Michigan primaries, and listen to a focus group of Wisconsin voters that tell us (in retrospect) how David Crowley was able to pull of a last minute surge. In light of AOC's 'Woke 1 was crazy' comments, they discuss swing voters' biggest complaints about each of our political parties, and whether the parties' brand problems are driven by politicians, or by other people in voters' lives. Show links: Subscribe to the Cook Political Report! (https://www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe) CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator) (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/cpr-polltracker/trump-trendlines) CPR’s “Find a Race” sorter (https://www.cookpolitical.com/races) CPR’s Battleground District Project (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/battleground-district-project) For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box.

The battle lines of the next Republican primary are being drawn in Florida's Republican primary for governor. There's a 'MAGA Establishment' frontrunner running with Donald Trump's endorsement (but who a lot of Republicans aren't that excited about), there's a flamboyantly racist groyper with a wild personal life, and a more Ron DeSantis-aligned candidate struggling to catch on. False Flag author Will Sommer joins Sarah to talk about: The Florida governor's race The future of the 'America First' faction that Tucker Carlson is leading The growing dissatisfaction among rank-and-file Trump voters Bulwark LIVE: The GOOD FIGHT TOUR with Tim, Sarah, Sam and JVL is coming to the Southeast in October. Tickets go on sale August 21. Bulwark+ members get early access via our presale starting August 18. Watch your inbox for details. Head to TheBulwark.com/Events for details and to get your tickets. There are more tickets to see Sarah and JVL on September 8 in NYC! We are about to sell out the orchestra section—but we want to sell out the balcony, too. It’s a point of pride. Come hang with us. Tickets are here.

After Sen. Lindsey Graham’s passing in July, South Carolina is holding a special Republican primary to replace him as the nominee for U.S. Senate. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham, has President Trump’s endorsement. But the polls (and our focus group) suggests that that may not be enough to fend off a cadre of other challengers. Associated Press national politics reporter Meg Kinnard joins Sarah to discuss Lindsey Graham’s legacy among South Carolina Republicans, and the state’s unexpected (and fast) special election.

At the end of one of the most expensive Democratic primaries for Senate in American history, Abdul El-Sayed appears to be pulling away. We've been talking to Democratic primary voters in Michigan about El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, and what they like (and don't like) about each candidate. Jonathan Cohn, author of the newsletter The Breakdown and The Bulwark's resident Michigander, joins the show to discuss a primary that Sarah thinks has gone on for way too long. episode links:How Old-School Race Animus Could Shake Up the Michigan Senate RaceWhy Gretchen Whitmer’s Senate Endorsement MattersWhy Mallory McMorrow’s Campaign Didn’t Survive