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Markets are pulling investors in several directions at once. Strong US economic data is colliding with growing questions over AI spending, while French bond markets have seen historic moves and Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices sharply higher. In Brazil, Lula's surprise election victory is a market earthquake. It promises to be a critical week, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all set to meet, while companies including Alphabet, Eli Lilly and BP provide fresh guidance. We also hear from Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, on the recent underperformance of technology stocks and what to look out for in gold after last week's decline. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Despite a complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions, elevated bond yields, and rapid technological change, capital markets have shown remarkable resilience this year, defying expectations of deeper disruption. What’s behind this strength, and how should investors position for what's next? In this episode, Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Marko Radovic, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Alternatives at Julius Baer, join Helen Freer to discuss the major themes shaping financial markets today. They reflect on the biggest surprises of the year, the outlook for broadening market performance, and where investors can find opportunities to diversify their exposure. The conversation also explores the implications of the upcoming US midterm elections, the role of private markets in portfolio construction, and the key forces driving markets today. (00:00) - Introduction (00:52) - The biggest surprises for financial markets so far this year (03:07) - Has equity market performance broadened? (05:30) - The challenge for stockpickers (07:15) - Where to diversify: Europe, Asia, and beyond (09:40) - Positioning for the US midterm elections and volatility (13:24) - The rising importance of private markets (17:12) - The single most important theme driving markets (20:45) - Closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Meta Platforms sparked a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex after reporting its first cash outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, government bonds rallied, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield back below 5%. Meanwhile, pressure on French assets intensified, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widening towards 180 basis points. In today’s Moving Markets episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, joins us to discuss the outlook for Chinese equities after major indices slipped into bear-market territory. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:17) - Chinese equity sell-off: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (12:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

On Wednesday equity markets across Europe rallied on the back of strong earnings announcements with even France’s CAC 40 gaining more than 1% on the day. Nervousness in French bonds markets continues though, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 5% for the first time since 2002. The positive tone was echoed in the US where indices also closed higher and earnings again broadly satisfied. However, after the close the mood changed as Tesla’s earnings disappointed and geopolitical tensions saw Brent oil rise above USD 110 per barrel. Asian equity markets have sold off this morning with China’s CSI 300 heading into bear market territory. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today for a timely look at why oil is trading at such unjustified levels, as well as sharing why he believes that the direction for both oil and gas prices should be down. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:46) - Energy – Oil, European natural gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research (11:56) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil volatility, a broadening equity rally and earnings dominated markets yesterday. While Netflix disappointed, SpaceX delivered standout results and Elon Musk floated the idea of a potential tie-up with Tesla. In Asia, stronger semiconductor sentiment and robust Japanese export growth supported risk appetite, offsetting weakness in CATL, China’s top battery maker, following its earnings release. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, examine Europe as France's debt concerns deepen, European bank stocks central to Italy’s and Spain’s stock markets hit a four-month low, and Swiss large caps have been outperforming. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:03) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:52) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (17:42) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US technology stocks bounced back on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, while political unrest in France weighed heavily on European markets, French bonds, and the euro. Oil prices swung on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and investors continued to assess the implications of higher interest rates, AI investment spending, and upcoming earnings. In today's show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses last week's weakness in AI-related stocks, explains why we remain constructive on the long-term AI opportunity, and highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:12) - The state of artificial intelligence: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (13:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Nasdaq just posted its worst week since Liberation Day amid growing doubts over AI momentum. Capital rotated into bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest weekly decline since February, despite firm inflation data. Meanwhile, the ongoing earnings season looks set to test market sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the medium- to long-term outlook for the technology sector is still positive, and what it would take for this to change. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:12) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.   Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on market sentiment, economic recovery and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities in China over the next 6 months. (00:28) - What options do policymakers have following weaker Golden Week data? (03:51) - Property stimulus and growth outlook (09:30) - China's rapid advancements in technological innovation (13:40) - Tightening trade restrictions - what's the impact? (18:07) - Are investors being overly pessimistic? (21:04) - Sectors to watch in the next 6 months

European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis (10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such as semiconductor manufacturers and equipment providers. The discussion covers the sustainability of current investment levels, the implications for free cash flow and financing habits among leading AI companies, and the risks and opportunities as the AI cycle continues to accelerate. (00:00) - Introduction (00:57) - Defining hyperscalers and their role (01:57) - The scale and acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditure (03:52) - Risks of AI training losing steam and visibility on spending (04:19) - Market reactions to AI risk warnings and supply chain constraints (05:49) - Drivers of price inflation in memory and compute units (07:23) - FOMO and hyperscaler behaviour in capacity booking (08:01) - Who bears the cost of rising AI infrastructure spending? (08:32) - Duration of supply tightness and outlook for normalization (09:17) - Pricing power across semiconductors, memory, servers (11:07) - Who will benefit most in the AI value chain? (11:23) - Beyond semiconductors (13:04) - The sustainability of the AI spending boom and changing financing habits (14:33) - Free cash flow compression and outlook for returns (16:27) - Risks and what to monitor (18:10) - Pacing the frontier - what will be the impact? (20:31) - Closing remarks (21:22) - Legal information  Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (08:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.