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George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight. Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture 3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy 5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low 6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price 7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated 7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe 8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue 9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets 11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing 13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible 14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing 16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead 16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices 18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere 20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough 22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play 24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months 25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking 26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance 28:48 The death of speculation 29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again? 30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989 32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform 33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck 34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating 35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor 37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities 39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes 40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software 43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings 45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word 46:11 What should the average investor do? 48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds 49:19 March 11th conference 53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun. Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/ X: https://x.com/agurevich23 Website: https://honteinv.com/ 0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition 1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now 2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today 3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals 4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion" 4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates 5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be 7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles 8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy 9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken 11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously? 13:13 Deflation, not inflation 14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again 15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious 16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal? 18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty 20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me" 23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses 24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over? 25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down 27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning 29:47 The underappreciated power of carry 32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler 33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator 36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23 38:26 Has the macro investing world changed? 39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now 42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion 45:18 Is energy the trade? 46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting 48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses. Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome 1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction 2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC 3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation 3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish? 4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect 5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much 6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like 6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress 7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits? 7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor 9:32 Is staying on the board political? 10:32 What will Powell's legacy be? 12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor 13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't 14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable" 16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000 17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming 18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx 19:19 Personnel costs and inflation 19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming? 20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver 22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings 24:26 Where Chris is putting his money 24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview 26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default 28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows 28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly? 32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead 34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock." Links: Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/ Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/ Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome 1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction 3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped 4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse 5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates 6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability 7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people 8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed 9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity 10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming? 10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal 12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts 12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller 15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house? 16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair? 17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions 19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell 21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising 22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real 25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors 26:45 Gold is a meme now 29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials 31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies 32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year 33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors 33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks. Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro 0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing 2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers 4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help? 5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher 6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas 7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials 8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction 9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater 10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026 12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts 14:15 How lenders are feeling right now 15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000 16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms 18:05 You pay for it after the election 18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote? 21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing? 22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments 26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy 27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it? 28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means 32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate 33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate 35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure. More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:   http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickards Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first 5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins 8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles 9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos? 11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch 13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained 15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns 17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980) 18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy 19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative 21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No) 23:15 What triggers a financial panic 24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money" 26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from 28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market 30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto 33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem 35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving 37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences 42:26 Gold does well in deflation too 45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009) 49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher 51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700% 55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier 56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule 58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input 63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO 67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey. This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule 0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think 3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming" 4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung 5:16 What's driving the gold price 6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth 9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default 11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation 13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable) 15:29 Where could gold go from here 16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market 18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian? 19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver 20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities 21:57 Rick's investment memo framework 24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity 26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation 29:52 The New York City socialist experiment 33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons 37:34 Innovation as the way out 38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to" 42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve 44:45 What would free market interest rates look like 46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating 49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption 54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense" 55:09 Battle Bank update 58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks. Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:30 GSE release officially off the table? 2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it. This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar 01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets 03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness 05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster 06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak 07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows 08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth 09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well 11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples 12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows 13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase 14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity 15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian 15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed 16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays 17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now 17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds 18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum 19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT 23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term 25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning 27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3% 28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed 29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena 30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June 31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1% 32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves 35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did 36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather 37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs 38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven 40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds 40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine 42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies 42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia 43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates 44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs 45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

Jim Rogers, who has sold all his US shares, warns that the American market has been going up longer than ever in history and when people say "it's different this time," you should look out the window and ask questions. While he doesn't think we're in a bubble yet, he sees bubble characteristics forming and is watching for signs to start shorting - like kids leaving college for the stock market and everyone talking about their investments. Rogers is deeply concerned about the $38.6 trillion in balance sheet debt plus over $200 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations, noting that historically this has always led to big problems. He still owns gold and silver but isn't buying at all-time highs, holds positions in China and Uzbekistan, and says he's "not happy" about the US capturing Venezuela's president - calling it "not normal" and "not defensible on the international stage." His stark conclusion: "It's a good time to be an old American. Young Americans are going to have lots of problems in their lifetime." This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia 00:00 Intro and welcome Jim Rogers 01:28 US economy and market going up longest in American history - sold all US shares 02:06 Has the US performance surprised you? 02:53 What questions should we be asking right now? 02:58 When should I start selling short? Exuberance setting us up for a top 03:41 Still owns shares in Uzbekistan and China - assessing China after recent run 04:12 Is the US in a bubble? Not yet, but beginning to have bubble characteristics 05:31 Worst crisis in our lifetime still coming - debt is unbelievable 07:55 Fed Chair Powell DOJ subpoena 11:00 US debt highest in history of the world, Fed printing huge amounts of money 13:12 Gold and silver performance - owns both, not selling, will buy more if they go down 15:34 Room to run in precious metals? Debt skyrocketing, money printing everywhere 16:36 What signs would make you short? 17:27 America losing financial wherewithal 19:44 Portfolio: Watching China go straight up, watching Uzbekistan, not adding 21:30 Venezuela 22:53 Nearly every stock market in the world making new highs - time to ask questions 24:56 Greatest strength and weakness as investor? 25:57 Biggest mistake? 27:46 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27. Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak 01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down 02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic" 07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets 08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem 12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning 13:04 NYC 18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago 24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations? 27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team 28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing 30:05 Bank earnings next week 30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate 32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall? 34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date. This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48). Links:   Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo 01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump 02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 2026 05:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs 12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms 16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 2026 16:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 2025 17:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 2026 19:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended 20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year 26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything 31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months 33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold 38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran 42:04 TACO or FAFO? 44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump? 49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble 52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets 54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing. This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Links: Swissblock SEM website:https://swissblock.net/products/sem Twitter/X: https://x.com/swissblock_SEM X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/ Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201 TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H 00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg 01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets 04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 1929 05:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water 06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels 08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy 09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment 11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession 14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals 20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem 23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor 25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs 26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation 28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified 30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike 32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected 35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor 38:19 Strong dollar implications 39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top 43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 2008 48:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve 49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain 51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is 53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed 54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook. In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him. Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 01:25 2025 retrospective 3:35 Big stories of 2026 05:30 Midterms 08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks 15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board? 16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026? 17:50 Default rates 21:25 What happens with housing in 2026 22:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age 26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead 32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred 36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece 38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates. This episode is brought to you by VanEck.  Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandich https://petergrandich.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich 01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say 09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade 13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $150 15:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails 21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career 23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes 28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US 30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith 35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors 41:31 Passive investing 45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back 47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances 49:19 Parting thoughts