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AI is often described as a software story, but the boom is also a massive physical investment in data centers, power systems, and specialized chips. A new BPEA paper projects that this buildout will total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, an average of 3.63% of U.S. GDP per year and larger relative to the economy than past booms in railroads, highways, and telecommunications. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Aaron Klein talks to the paper's author, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh about what this means for transparency and risk. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Data on labor markets is incredibly important to policymakers, from state and federal legislators to the central bank and Treasury Department. But this data is often noisy or incomplete. A new BPEA paper draws on a large body of data sets going back to 1960 to develop a novel approach to studying labor markets that can help fill these gaps. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner talks to Ayşegül Şahin, one of the paper authors, about this new methodology. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The promise and peril of an AI-dominated future have dominated debates among economists, technologists, and policymakers in recent years. But even as the technology continues to evolve, considerable uncertainty remains about who is using AI and its impact on economies around the globe. In a new BPEA study, researchers conducted surveys in the U.S. and Europe to answer some of these questions and improve understanding of how and why different firms and workers are using AI. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Sanjay Patnaik, director of Brookings' Center on Regulation and Markets, speaks with two of the paper authors about their findings. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The tariff increases during the second Trump administration have been historic in their magnitude and scope, dwarfing even those from Trump's first term. Many feared that these tariffs would have dramatic impacts on the economy, but for the most part, the tariff impacts have been muted in the U.S. In a new BPEA study, Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal document the effects of Trump's tariffs, what goals they have (or have not) accomplished, and where the costs have fallen. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, the authors speak with Kari Heerman, Brookings' director of trade and economic statecraft, about their findings and what to expect next. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

In 2010, the U.S. government projected that Americans would spend about $6 trillion dollars on health care, a little over 21% of GDP, in 2024. The actual amount spent was almost $1 trillion less. In fact, health care spending has been below projections almost every year since the early 2010s. In a new BPEA paper, "Has the U.S. bent the health care cost curve?" David Cutler and Lev Klarnet of Harvard University document this historic slowdown in spending, identify causes, and offer insight into whether this slowdown is a permanent adjustment to the trend. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, the authors speak with Richard Frank, director of Brookings' Center on Health Policy, about their study. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

China's real estate sector and infrastructure account for nearly one-third of economic demand in China. Plus, Chinese households allocate far more of their wealth to housing (nearly 70%) than households in other countries. So with the country's real estate sector entering its sixth year of adjustment, the implications for China and the rest of the world are growing. In a new BPEA paper, Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang look for clues on what will happen next in another recent real estate crisis, that of 1990s Japan. On today's episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Rogoff and Yang are interviewed about their findings by Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve has amassed roughly $6.6 trillion in assets, primarily in the form of Treasury securities and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. Some, including President Trump's nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board, have suggested that the Fed should reduce the size of its balance sheet. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Darrell Duffie of Stanford University discusses how the central bank could achieve that goal and the pros and cons of ample reserves. Duffie is interviewed by David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 included funds for billions of dollars in federal investments in U.S.-based manufacturing, a major landmark in the history of America's industrial policy. While the full impacts of such a large bill will take years to reveal themselves, new research shows that firms have already responded to the CHIPS Act, with increases of roughly 15,000 new jobs in semiconductor production-related jobs attributable to the law. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Bilge Erten, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and Eric Verhoogen, authors of the new study, join Brookings Senior Fellow Mark Muro to discuss the employment impacts of the CHIPS Act already visible in the data as well as potential implications for future industrial policy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Monetary and fiscal policymakers use a variety of metrics to inform their decisions, but among the most important is the neutral rate of interest, also known by economists as "r*," a number that isn't directly observable. It represents the prevailing rate of interest in a smooth-running economy, and can be thought of as a target for policymakers. A new study presents a model of r* showing its decline in recent decades, as well as some potential signs that it may start creeping back upward in the coming years. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Wendy Edelberg speaks to the authors of the new study, Lukasz Rachel of University College of London, about his research and the implications for the economy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology's impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the study's authors, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, join a conversation with Brookings Senior Fellow Molly Kinder to discuss their findings and the policy implications. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Fertility rates are falling in many countries around the world, with births failing to keep pace with deaths in nearly half of countries. Researchers believe it's possible that the world's population will start shrinking in the near future, and the effects could be catastrophic for institutions like Social Security. A new paper explores a novel explanation for this decline in fertility: The role of social comparison between parents. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel is joined by two of the authors to discuss the parental rat race, the high costs of education, and the impact of social media. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Studies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to changing weather. The report authors examine a range of impacts, from mortality costs due of wildfire smoke to rising insurance costs along coastlines, to provide estimates of annual costs by region and socioeconomic status. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the authors, Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram, join host Samantha Gross for a discussion of their findings and the implications for policymakers. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Roughly two thirds of countries on Earth stabilize their currency against the U.S. dollar. The relationship has benefits in both directions: Smaller countries enjoy better stability for their national currencies, and U.S. companies and government get low borrowing rates, among other benefits. But a new BPEA paper, "Trade War and the dollar anchor," highlights how U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other countries are putting pressure on the dollar's place at the heart of world monetary system. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, one of the paper's coauthors, Tarek Hassan of Boston University, will speak with Brookings Director of Trade and Economic Statecraft Kari Heerman about his study. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Interstate migration has declined in the U.S. in recent decades, suggesting that workers are less likely to move in order to find employment. Such a trend would have significant policy implications for state and local governments, as well as at the federal level. But new research by Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar suggests that it isn't workers who have changed as much as differences in regional economies. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, House and Tesar join Brookings Senior Fellow Tara Watson to discuss the findings of their new paper, "Should I Stay or Should I go? The response of labor migration to economic shocks." Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck national economies like a hammer. As the disease spread, workers went home, businesses were empty, and economic indicators crashed. Now, five years later, the U.S. economy looks in many ways like it did pre-pandemic, with GDP back on to the pre-pandemic trend and unemployment down to around 4% after spiking to over 10% in 2020. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner is joined by Harvard University's James Stock to discuss his new paper, "Recovering from COVID," in which he and coauthor Mark Watson of Princeton explore the amazing economic recovery from the pandemic recession and the implications for future policymaking. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].