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Next week could be a pivotal one for the global economy, with interest-rate decisions from the Fed and ECB alongside a challenging UK Budget. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales is joined by Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown to explain what to expect and where the biggest risks lie. They discuss why the Fed is likely to pause next week but resume raising rates from December, and what to listen for from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as inflation pressures remain uncomfortably strong. They also explain why the ECB faces a rather different inflation problem and why its tightening cycle may be close to an end. And with central bankers increasingly reluctant to commit themselves to a particular path for rates, they ask whether forward guidance is really dead, and how investors should interpret the signals coming from the Fed and ECB next week. Finally, with the UK Budget looming, they consider the difficult balancing act facing the Chancellor as he seeks to ease cost-of-living pressures without unsettling already-nervous bond markets. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/central-bank-drop-unpacking-fed-and-ecb-october-meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/ecb-watch/ecb-will-hike-only-once-morehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/uk-budget-2026-preview-unfinished-fiscal-business

China's economy is slowing, but not collapsing. Domestic demand remains weak, the property downturn continues to weigh on growth, and deflationary pressures persist. Yet exports remain remarkably strong, helping to drive a growing trade surplus and raising questions about how long the rest of the world will tolerate China's expanding global footprint. In this week's Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Neil Shearing is joined by Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, and Erik Britton, CEO and Chief Economist at Fathom Consulting. They discuss Capital Economics' central outlook for China and introduce the new China Economic Scenarios service, developed in partnership with Fathom. The conversation explores six possible futures for China's economy, from a renewed export-led boom to a world in which China is increasingly shut out of global supply chains. Along the way, they examine the outlook for growth, inflation and trade tensions, and explain why scenario analysis can help investors navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment. Topics covered: Why China's domestic economy remains under pressureThe outlook for exports and trade surplusesDeflation risks and the prospects for inflationHow rising geopolitical tensions could reshape China's futureThe six scenarios featured in the new China Economic Scenarios serviceWhat China's future means for the global economy and financial marketshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/china-economic-scenarioshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-could-weather-tougher-eu-trade-restrictionshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-inflation-watch/inflation-outlook-doesnt-justify-market-rate-expectations

This week, Neil Shearing is joined by James Reilly and Jack Allen-Reynolds to unpack the latest bond market sell-off, the forces driving higher global yields, and why equity markets continue to defy expectations. They also examine mounting fiscal concerns in France, assess whether the eurozone faces a renewed debt crisis, and discuss how Europe is responding to growing competitive pressures from China. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-bond-sell-means-monetary-policyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/increasingly-narrow-equity-rally-rings-alarm-bells

The global economy is facing another energy shock, yet growth has remained remarkably resilient. In this week's Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Neil Shearing is joined by Jennifer McKeown and Mark Williams to discuss why households, governments and the AI investment boom have helped cushion the blow, and why markets may be overestimating how much further central banks will tighten policy. The team also explores the implications of China Shock 2.0. With China's exports surging even as domestic demand remains weak, they examine how Beijing's industrial strategy is reshaping global trade, who stands to benefit, and which economies are most exposed to the costs. They also discuss why China's leaders are unlikely to change course anytime soon and what this could mean for global imbalances, inflation and financial markets over the coming decade. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/weathering-energy-shockhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/china-shock-20

What did President Xi Jinping’s summit with Donald Trump tell us about the future of US-China relations? Has the latest trade truce brought the two sides any closer to resolving their differences? And with China’s exports booming despite weak domestic demand, can the economy continue to hold up? Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join us on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the Xi-Trump summit, tariffs, rare earths, AI and Taiwan, as well as the outlook for China’s economy. Also on the show, we discuss the latest edition of our China Economic Outlook, including why exports remain so strong, why domestic demand is still weak and what this means for China’s growth, inflation and property markets.https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economic-outlook/near-term-relief-headwinds-remainhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/china-shock-20

Neil Shearing and Jennifer McKeown unpack a pivotal week for the world's major central banks. They discuss the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike and what it says about the independence of central banks in an era of political pressure. They then talk about why the market may be mispricing the future path of interest rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan and the UK. Finally, they discuss Capital Economics' new China Shock 2.0 research programme, exploring how China's export surge is reshaping the global economy and creating challenges and opportunities for Europe, Asia and beyond.Find out more about our China Shock 2.0 work and upcoming events:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events#in-personhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/china-shock-20

The stunning surge in Chinese exports bears comparison with what happened during the first China shock of the early 2000s. But this time is different: the scale is much larger, the goods being exported are much more advanced and the geopolitical environment is much more fraught. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group – Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces Capital Economics' new series on China Shock 2.0, explaining what this shock means for the global economy, why the costs this time are falling hardest on Europe and why an orderly adjustment to global imbalances looks out of reach.  Find out more about our events happening in North America, Europe and Asia this autumn:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events#in-person

That was a much hotter payrolls report than the market had expected, but how will it influence this month’s Fed decision? With inflation risks still prevalent, how will the ECB and Bank of England approach their September meetings? And what does the surge in bond yields mean for economies? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown join David Wilder on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss energy prices, bond yields, inflation risks and what they mean for the path of interest rates. Also on the show, with resurgent energy prices adding to the dilemma facing central bankers and bond markets, we hear an exclusive excerpt from a recent client briefing on our outlook for markets. Our Commodities team looks at the near-term risks to oil product prices and natural gas supply, as well as what the US-Venezuela oil deal could mean for energy markets. Related content Global Drop-In: Post-summer macro and markets outlook, Tuesday 8th September 0900 BST/1600 SGT: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook  1000 ET/1500 BST: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook-0 Watch now: Commodities catch-up – What next for energy, gold and agriculturals?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-commodities-catch-what-next-energy-gold-and-agriculturals

Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff? Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joins The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the latest tech earnings, whether Scott Bessent has managed to cap Treasury yields and what investors will want to hear from Kevin Warsh in his Jackson Hole address. Also on the show, just days after Bessent announced ‘Economic D-Day’ for Iran, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson assesses how much pain the Iranian economy is in and whether further pressure from the Trump administration could be enough to force Tehran to capitulate. Related content Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returnshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/concentrated-earnings-probably-mean-concentrated-returns Can Iran continue to hold out?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/can-iran-continue-hold-out

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here.  In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including: What was Scott Bessent’s Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short?What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds?Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis?Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt?How high could bond yields rise from here?Related content Read: How to think about the bond market sell-offhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sell Read: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October’s Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy. Related content What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions Capital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi. Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient. Related content How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policies Your questions on Japan’s markets answeredhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answered EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026)https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026

Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains why, despite the horrific scenes unfolding across southern Europe, this summer's wildfires are likely to have only a limited economic impact. Related contentThe renminbi could not rebalance China on its ownhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/renminbi-could-not-rebalance-china-its-own Little macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfireshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/little-macroeconomic-impact-horrific-wildfires

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China. Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and why global trade has remained surprisingly resilient.Shooting war: After oil $100 a barrel again, what are the implications for inflation and central banks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate?AI boom: How AI investment is now the major driver of growth in both the US and China, and what happens if the boom turns to bust? Related content Fed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until Septemberhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/rate-hikes-coming-not-until-september Bank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in playhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/boe-watch-boe-hold-rates-energy-prices-keep-rate-hikes-play What is the future of US tariffs?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-future-us-tariffs

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy. Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front. Related contentThe implications of a renewed closure of the Straithttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/implications-renewed-closure-strait Global Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergencehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/us-strength-points-renewed-policy-divergence-0 UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-burnham-government-will-policy-ambition-collide-economic-reality Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growthhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/why-burnham-will-struggle-revive-uk-growth