Advertise on podcast: Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

This week the UFC returns to Las Vegas and lands at the Meta APEX. Brendan Allen faces Christian Leroy Duncan in a match that could determine future middleweight contenders.  This may not be the strongest card on paper, but there's always opportunities to bet.  Plus what can we pull this week in our weekly pack rip. Pack Bet?? Maybe...   Chapters 00:00 - Episode 61 Starts Now! 01:15 - UFC Vegas 122 Preview 02:11 - Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza 06:45 - Brendan Allen vs CLD 13:00 - Pack Bets! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The title fight we've all been waiting for...right?  UFC 332 is this weekend and the vacant Women's Flyweight Championship is up for grabs!  Natalia Silva comes in on an 8 fight win streak as she challenges The Joker, Cong Wang. Who will take home gold? Breaking down some key fights and finding some bets for us this weekend on this episode of Fighting With Numbers. Plus can we find a Pack Bet in our new box of UFC cards?   If you're enjoying the show, subscribe today! If you're not enjoying the show...subscribe as well! Why not?   You can find Rob on X/Twitter & Instagram: @TheRobbeo Full model data and season dashboard is available at FightingWithNumbers.com     Chapters: 00:00 - What up!? 03:15 - King Green vs Esteban Ribovics 08:00 - Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott 12:30 - Natalia Silva vs Cong Wang 17:04 - Pack Rip Time Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

UFC Vegas 121 goes down in Las Vegas this week, back in the APEX we go! Headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos. It is youth vs experience.  Lean betting card for us but that's not stopping us from breaking a few fights down. Along with a pack rip! (Of course).  Make sure to check out FightingWithNumbers.com for more tale of the tapes and a full season dashboard.  Check me out on Twitter and Instagram at @TheRobbeo   Enjoy the violence! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's UFC 331 week! And the rematch is here between Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja as they settle the score for the Flyweight title.  Rob dives through the fights with the model and finds his bets for the week.  Plus we're ripping another pack of cards, see if we can make it 3 in a row for Pack Bets! Subscribe to the show and leave a rating, share with a fellow fight fan today! Follow along on X and Instagram: @TheRobbeo More fight data available at FightingWithNumbers.com today! Chapters: 00:00 - UFC 331 Preview 02:52 - Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura 07:19 - Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy 13:45 - Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja 2 21:30 - Let It Rip Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

¡Que onda cabrones! It's Noche UFC — the UFC's yearly celebration of Mexican Independence Day — and Fighting With Numbers is back with seven fights through the model and four breakdowns on the pod. Plus the pack rip delivers an auto card AND the pack bet of the week. Feliz Noche UFC — que disfruten la violencia. If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   00:00 Que Onda Cabrones — Welcome to Noche UFC02:41 Model Update & Last Week Recap08:38 Card Preview & Fight Selection09:16 Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes12:30 Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso14:31 Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales18:00 Main Event: Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado23:15 Pack Rip Time25:49 Pack Bet of the Week & Closing Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The UFC is in Paris and the final 13 events of the season are officially underway. Rob breaks down two fights through the model this week. The main event features the UFC debut of French star Salahdine Parnasse in his home city — no model play, but plenty worth talking about. And after the sign-off? The pack rip gets its own moment as a true bonus round. Profitez de la violence. If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

UFC Shanghai kicks off at 3AM ET and Rob is up early to break it all down. Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong headlines UFC Shanghai this week! Two fights for us to break down, plus a pack rip to send things off.    If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.    Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.  Chapters 00:00 Intro and Fight Model Update  04:15 Xiaonan's UFC Journey and Matchup  07:39 Betting Odds and Predictions for Gomes  09:00 Umar Nurmargomedov's UFC Record and Fight Style  10:15 Nurmargomedov's Ground Control and Fight Strategy  12:13 Betting Tips: Nurmargomedov's Likely Outcome  14:00 Let It Rip!  16:54 Fun with 2026 Stadium Club UFC Cards Pack  17:22 Final Fight Predictions and Dashboard Update  17:59 Closing Remarks and Fight Night Tips Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

UFC Sacramento isn't the most glamorous card on the calendar, but the model doesn't need glamour — it needs edges. Rob breaks down two fights this week, Plus another card rip to close things out. If you're looking for a place to put these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.     00:00 Introduction to UFC betting insights with Rob Moreno 01:49 Model performance and variance in UFC predictions 04:14 Overview of UFC Sacramento card and fight selection 08:47 Main event analysis: Hernandez vs Rodrigues 14:57 Betting strategies and model confidence in UFC fights 17:08 Unboxing UFC trading cards and final thoughts Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

UFC 330 is headlined by Islam Makhachev chasing history — a 17th consecutive UFC win that would put him alone at the top of the all-time record. One historic main event. Let's see what Saturday brings. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.     Chapters 00:00 Introduction and UFC 330 overview 02:11 Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj fight analysis 07:16 Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore preview 12:26 Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern analysis 17:00 Main event prediction: Islam Makachev vs Ian Machado Gary 23:44 Final thoughts and betting advice for UFC 330 Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

UFC Vegas 120 is back at the APEX and the data is as thin as it's been all season — but that doesn't mean there's nothing to work with. Rob breaks down a couple fights on the card.  The model processes it all, finds a real edge, and Rob explains exactly why he's taking a bet despite the data limitations. Plus — one more pack rip before next week's card finally gives us something to work with. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Intro and episode overview 01:16 Recent model success and UFC Vegas 120 context 02:17 Data limitations for this week's fights 03:46 Upcoming UFC event details and card preview 04:41 Personal updates and social media shoutouts 05:14 Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo fight analysis 09:25 Main event preview: Gamrot vs Salkilld 15:45 Fight prediction and betting decision 16:38 Pack opening and UFC card pull Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The UFC heads to Belgrade this week and the main event comes with a storyline the model simply can't account for. Rob breaks down what that means for the fight, how the numbers line up against a knockout machine on a three-fight TKO streak, and pack rip number three — hopefully the last one before the fight cards get fuller again. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Intro and UFC Belgrade overview 01:09 Model's recent success and upcoming fights 02:35 Personal vacation and fighter background context 03:25 Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec analysis 06:10 Betting odds and prop insights for Rebecki vs Prepolec 08:22 Daniel Rodriguez's prison stint and fight implications 09:59 Uros Medic's recent KO streak and fight style 11:07 Striking and ground game comparison 12:38 Model's prediction and betting considerations 14:23 UFC Belgrade fight card recap and card rip 17:20 Closing remarks and website promotion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The UFC is in Abu Dhabi this week and Rob is back with another lean card, another early morning start, and another pack rip. Two fights make the cut for the model this week — an undefeated prospect with a suffocating grappling game looking to stay perfect, and a former light heavyweight champion returning in a last-minute main event against a hungry replacement opponent. Short card, safe plays, and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.  Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Abu Dhabi and Episode Overview  00:56 Recap of Last Week's Model Performance and MMA Betting Reality  02:23 Current UFC Betting Climate and Card Preview  03:37 Introduction to Pack Rip Tradition and Social Media Presence  05:57 Fighter Profile: Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis  09:14 Main Event Breakdown: Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov  19:05 Betting Predictions and Line Movements for Main Event  21:17 Pack Rip Card Opening and Collectible Highlights  24:24 Closing Remarks and How to Follow for More Content Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The UFC heads to Oklahoma City for a shorter card this week, and Rob starts by addressing the elephant in the room — Conor McGregor's knee gave out in the first round, BSD dropped a fight he didn't see coming, and somehow we move forward. On a data-thin slate, the model still finds two fights worth talking about: a co-main event where the Tier 1 favorite's price sends us straight to the prop market, and a main event where a former welterweight champion steps into a new division as a big underdog with a very clear blueprint for winning. Plus — something new this week. Rob rips open a UFC trading card pack live on air. No script. Just vibes and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com. Chapters 00:00 Intro and UFC Oklahoma City overview 01:28 Recap of recent UFC fight results and lessons learned 02:24 Discussion on Conor McGregor's return and fan disappointment 05:08 Preview of UFC Oklahoma City main card and data limitations 06:10 Open UFC trading cards live on air 07:20 Analysis of Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan 13:05 Preview of UFC main event: Duplessis vs Uzman 19:34 Live UFC card rip and closing thoughts 23:02 Final betting thoughts and episode wrap-up Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Mac is back. Five years removed from his last fight and six years since his last win, Conor McGregor steps back into the octagon at welterweight for a rematch against Max Holloway that nobody saw coming when they first met back in 2013. Rob breaks down the UFC 329 card through the model. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Welcome Back Mac 02:04 Analyzing Women's Flyweight Fight: Cortez vs. Wang 05:15 Robert Whitaker's Move to Light Heavyweight 09:40 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett: A Lightweight Clash 13:46 The Return of Conor McGregor: Holloway Rematch 20:24 Final Thoughts and Betting Insights Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this week as Rafael Fiziev looks to make a statement in front of his home crowd against a red-hot Manuel Torres — a fighter who has barely seen a second round in his entire MMA career.  If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Recent Performance Review 02:03 Upcoming UFC Event in Baku, Azerbaijan 03:13 Fight Breakdown: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson 07:43 Fight Breakdown: Rafael Faziv vs. Manuel Torres 14:04 Conclusion and Future Outlook Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.