Advertise on podcast: Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Timothy Snyder - a historian working on Central and Eastern Europe, politics of Russia and Ukraine and democracy and the threats it faces. We talk about the spectacular shift of the United States to align with Russia against Ukraine, about what is real reason behind it, how far it can go and what it can lead to or about the future of Russia, Europe and the United States - and much more.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Dr. Vali Nasr, a Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, specializing in Iran’s foreign policy and grand strategy.  Seven months in we are at a strange point of the war that Vali calls a holding pattern and which seems like things are kind of stuck. But my guest argues that this status quo is not sustainable - that it doesn't work for either side and that very soon this phase will end - and that and that a next round of war is coming after - one that will be far more destructive than anything we’ve seen before. In this conversation, we talk about the theories of victory and strategies to win against both the United States and Iran, why they are mutually exclusive and why there can't be a negotiated deal. Why the American strategy to starve Iran out will not work, why this war is bound to expand and why Donald Trump has found himself in a similar quagmire as Vladimir Putin in Ukraine - and much more.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Margaret MacMillan, a historian and emeritus professor at the University of Oxford, whose latest work is focusing on the changing of the world order - the collapse of the rules based order that we used to live in and its replacement with something much more chaotic, unstable and dangerous. We talk about why today is as significant as the biggest milestones of the 20th century, like the world wars or the collapse of the Soviet Union, if current American foreign policy is here to stay or if it’s a period of momentary insanity, if there ever was a case of a superpower voluntarily destroying its own alliances and why is she increasingly concerned about America’s future, what will be the long term consequences of the war in Ukraine and what is the future of Europe, or why we are living in a time before a major - and what will that storm look like when it hits.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with David Gioe - a Professor of Intelligence and International Security at King’s College London and a former member of the US intelligence, serving in the CIA and specializing in clandestine operations and covert action. And one of the most qualified people in the world to speak on the increasingly important question of Russia’s campaign of asymmetric warfare in Europe, ranging from sabotage to assassinations and gradually intensifying further and further.  We speak about what is Russia’s real strategy behind these attacks, what is it actually planning to achieve and whether it’s working, what has been Europe’s response and why does it seem so limited. About the risks and benefits of what Europe can do to stop Russia’s campaign, what happens if Europe hits back and Russia just keeps doubling down - and how do you escalate to de-escalate if your opponent is willing to take things much further than you are. And about what is actually going to happen - whether Europe will do something or not, whether the United States will join and how far exactly is Russia going to take all this.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Michael Kimmage, a Russia expert, the director of the Kennan Institute who previously served at the US Department of State, where he was responsible for the Russia/Ukraine policy planning. And although he is a big supporter of Ukraine, he has quite a different view of the war and where it is going than most Western analysts. The conventional wisdom is that although the end of the war is not around the corner, we are getting to a final stage - since Russia is coming under an increasing economic and political strain, its military progress is slow and the costs and the pain are growing. But according to Michael, none of that matters because even though the war is damaging Russia, it’s actually making its leader and his position stronger rather than weaker as the war and what he calls Putinism are now the same thing. And the logical conclusion that he argues is that the war is not going to end this year, the next or the one after - but that it’s likely to turn into a generational conflict and one that is unlikely to stay isolated to Ukraine.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Peter Heather - a professor of history at the King’s College London and the world’s leading authority on the fall of the Roman Empire. Now this might sound a bit random since this is a podcast about contemporary geopolitics but Peter has recently written a book that takes his expertise much further. He makes an argument that all great empires of history go through the exact same cycle of rise and fall - including the present day American empire. And that just like Rome it’s fall is caused by the same thing that made it a superpower in the first place - and that just like for Rome, it’s now on a swift and inevitable fall down. It’s a fascinating argument and one of my favorite discussions that provides a great framework for how to think about today - and what it is that we are - unfortunately - heading towards.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ ➡️ Check out Adm. Bauer's book: https://www.amazon.nl/You-Want-Peace-Prepare-War/dp/9046833992 This is a conversation with Admiral Rob Bauer, a former Chief of Defence of the Dutch Armed Forces and until last year, the Chair of the NATO Military Committee - the most senior military officer role in NATO and one of the leading roles in the organisation. In that role, he has seen the secret intelligence on the Russian build up in 2021 and their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He has been in the rooms where world leaders discussed the invasion and he was responsible for the Alliance’s response. All that makes this a unique conversation but today, he warns about a different war - a war between Russia and NATO. A war that he believes is likely coming - and that as he believes - we should all immediately prepare for.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with George Barros, director at the Institute for Study of War and a long time Russia analyst with a deep insight into the war in Ukraine. He and his team believe that over the past 3 years, the war has essentially looked exactly the same with only minor changes - but that has now changed and after 3 years, we have now entered a new and very different phase of the war. And after 3 years of relative stability, things are now quickly becoming a lot more volatile, unpredictable and potentially a lot more dangerous. From the frontlines where both sides are increasingly pushing forward and using new tactics, the long-range campaigns are becoming increasingly destructive and intense to Russia, potentially preparing to attack a NATO member in the coming months and throw hundreds of thousands of new soldiers on the battlefield. And as the final limits that the war seemed to still have so far are increasingly coming off - it seems that things are about to get really out of control.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Dalibor Rohac - former fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, now Director of Research at Globsec, and the author of a new book called Unshackled - in which he puts out a pretty serious warning about the future of America, of its geopolitical power and its foundations - and what it means for the world.  He argues that more than a military, what makes America a superpower is something else - its alliances, institutions, its soft power, the system of carefully balanced international institutions and relations - and especially its vast economic strength. And that while America still has the military muscle, it’s increasingly losing all the other sources of it - not because of its adversaries but because it is destroying them itself. He thinks this is bigger than Trump - it started before him and it’s not going to go away with him and while it’s already having serious consequences - it’s still just the beginning. And American geopolitical power, its role and influence abroad and in the end, the world without America as we know it, is about to significantly change.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ ➡️ Check out Professor Pape's newsletter:https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who spent the bulk of his career studying exactly the kind of wars that the United States is now waging against Iran, including why they usually fail and what they typically lead to - which makes him one of the most important people to listen to today. But this is about more than just that.He argues that this war isn't just a random blunder by a chaotic president, but instead, that it’s a result of deeper, systemic changes that were long playing underneath the surface without anyone noticing - from a military revolution that flipped the global balance of power to the end of the global dominance of the United States. He explains why the likely outcome is Iran emerging as the world's fourth great power, why China's lesson from this about Taiwan is exactly the opposite of what everyone thinks and why history will see the Iran war as the time when geopolitics fundamentally changed.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Julia Curlee, who spent 25 years in U.S. national security, including 20 years as a CIA analyst, serving at the National Security Council and briefing senior U.S. officials. She recently left government and is now speaking publicly about what she believes is happening inside the system she spent her career working in. The United States has spent decades building an extraordinary system for having the best possible intelligence and using that to make the best possible decisions which was always a big part of what made the U.S. as powerful as it is. But Julia thinks that this system is now breaking down and when that happens, even a superpower with enormous resources can become unable to recognize reality, anticipate the consequences of its own actions and can start to increasingly make self-destructive decisions.  She argues that this is what explains the Iran war and why the US failed so badly to achieve its goals but also a lot of other foreign policy decisions - and that this is about to get a lot worse and the United States is about to make a lot more potentially catastrophic decisions.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1804519707 ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Illya Sekirin and in my view, one of the most unique conversations I’ve had on the podcast so far. Illya is Ukrainian-Canadian who in 2022 joined the Ukrainian military and served in the war, first in infantry and later as a drone pilot, operating drones in combat in countless operations and campaigns throughout the war. Through those experiences he came up with a lot of ideas on how to use drones in the most effective and innovative way possible many of which were adopted and this later brought him to the Ukrainian General Staff, where he ended up advising the Ukrainian top leadership on drone warfare. And most recently he wrote about those ideas in a book called Rise of the Machines. Illya has a unique and quite rare combination of several things: extensive experience on the ground in frontline combat, the perspective from the highest levels of command, knowledge of military strategy and highly analytical mind which results in a fascinating conversation - on what is it like to be a drone operator in the war today, how is the drone warfare actually organized on a tactical level, what are the actual tactics and strategies that are being used and how are they changing, what is that decides who ends up winning in drone warfare or what do Western and military experts fundamentally misunderstand about the war - and much more.

➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Philip Ingram, a former high ranking officer in the British military intelligence. In his career, Philip has planned and executed countless operations around the globe and that’s why he’s the perfect person to talk about the recent changes in the war in Ukraine. We talk about Ukraine’s campaign of long-range strikes on targets in the Russian rear, from refineries to warehouses, about the campaign to cut off Crimea and about what are these operations really about - whether their desired effect is psychological or it’s about something else, how do strikes on a warehouse effect what’s happening on a frontline 1000 miles away and what’s the bigger Ukrainian plan and thinking about all this. And we talk about Russia’s growing problems - from the impact to the public morale or whether it will be forced to declare a mobilization in the fall - and much more.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://dub.sh/Patreon-Ruben-Stewart ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Ruben Stewart, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the IISS, about a a single question: what would happen if Europe had to fight Russia tonight, as it is, entirely without the United States. It’s a question that is both an increasingly likely possibility given the continuous withdrawal of the United States from Europe - but that also almost no one has really seriously modelled so far.  And so we get into how deep Europe's hidden dependence on America actually runs, how much it would constrain Europe if it had to fight alone and what would that actually look like - from the satellites and intelligence that would leave it half-blind, to the fact that NATO’s leadership is by definition mostly made up of American officers. Into why Europe would be forced into a completely different way of fighting than what most European commanders and officials envision or whether it could overcome its own political disunity fast enough to actually put up a fight.

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Buy your own Geopolitics of the Western Pacific Map Print: https://decoding-geopolitics-shop.fourthwall.com/ ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Thomas Eder, Research Fellow at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, about how China actually sees the world - and why Beijing is increasingly confident that America is a superpower in decline. We get into this worldview - that the East is rising as the West unravels, and that China is on the way to take the top spot the way the US once took it from the British Empire - and why this belief is now driving Chinese strategy. But we also dig into why China's own deep economic and demographic problems complicate that confidence - and why the conclusion Beijing seems to be drawing isn't to fight America, but to outwait it, using patience, pressure and incentives to win the contest, and even Taiwan, without a war.