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Dr. Hunter Biram sits down with Dr. Bruno Pinto, teaching assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Arkansas, to talk about how El Niño could affect Brazil’s second-season corn crop, known as safrinha. Most of Brazil’s corn is planted right after the soybean harvest, so delays in soybean planting can push safrinha past its low-risk planting window. Bruno walks through what past El Niño seasons in Mato Grosso show about planting delays and yields, and why a smaller Brazilian crop could matter for U.S. corn exports. He also points to the key dates and numbers worth watching as this season unfolds.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles review the USDA’s October WASDE and Crop Production reports, starting with the surprise 2.7-bushel increase in the national corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre that briefly sent December futures down the daily limit. They talk about why higher ending stocks mean corn needs new demand before any lasting price rally, and how record crush and better exports are absorbing a record 4.56-billion-bushel soybean crop. The conversation also covers the long-grain rice balance sheet, where ending stocks are down 50% from last year, and a larger cotton crop driven by higher yields across the Delta States.

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the 2026 ARC and PLC election, with signup open through December 11. They explain why the later signup works in producers’ favor, since USDA price projections and a better read on county yields are already available. They also explain why long-grain rice and cotton are leaning toward PLC while corn and soybeans look stronger under ARC-CO. The conversation then turns to wheat, where the choice is closer and depends a lot on how county yields have tracked against the benchmark.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy look at how ongoing shipping disruptions from the Iran conflict continue to raise fuel and fertilizer costs for Arkansas row crop producers. Ryan explains how problems in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have pushed farm diesel far above the price used in the University of Arkansas 2026 Crop Enterprise Budgets. He also explains why urea costs hit corn, rice, and cotton growers harder than soybean and peanut producers. The two walk through an analysis Ryan built with Scott Stiles estimating the added cost per acre for each crop and the total impact on the state.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy walk through the Southern Integrated Risk Management Tool (SIRM), a free web-based decision tool that helps farmers, county agents, crop insurance agents, and ag lenders build a crop insurance portfolio. The tool covers insurable counties in 13 southern states for principal row crops like corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans, estimating producer premiums for buy-up coverage and area plans such as SCO and ECO, adjusted for premium subsidies and land tenure. Hunter also demos how producers can use the tool to fit coverage to their own operation.

Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram discuss the latest September 2026 WASDE, where the balance sheet held few surprises but the price changes stood out. Scott opens with a primer on how FSA certified acreage feeds into NASS production estimates and why the numbers firm up once the summer surveys are behind us.  The conversation then turns to yield, with drought driving USDA's corn yield cut, and to a counter-seasonal rally that led USDA to raise average farm prices for corn, soybeans, and cotton. Hunter and Scott finish with the global factors in play, from strong Chinese soybean demand to a rocky start for Brazil's planting and the smallest French corn crop in 50 years.

Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram sit down to discuss the crop insurance chapter from the newly released Surviving the Farm Economy Downturn: 2026 Update. Hunter walks through the basic decisions producers face when selecting federal crop insurance, from choosing between farm-level and county-level coverage to how unit structure and the differences among Yield Protection, Revenue Protection, and RP with Harvest Price Exclusion shape both premiums and protection. The chapter is meant as a starting point, and the episode points listeners to the full publication and other University of Arkansas resources for going deeper.

Ryan Loy is joined by James Mitchell, Associate Professor and Fryar Price Risk Management Center Associate Director at the University of Arkansas, to dig into the new Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis tool.  With cattle prices at historical highs, this free online dashboard lets producers plug in their own numbers to compare buying a bred heifer against raising one of their own, returning net present value, breakeven price, and payback period in real time. James and Ryan explain how the tool treats a cow as a long-term investment and why the opportunity cost of holding a heifer calf back matters at today's prices.

Hunter Biram, Scott Stiles, and Breana Watkins to look at why attractive winter wheat and canola prices may draw Arkansas acres this fall. With row crop margins still squeezed by high input costs, they dig into the newly released 2027 University of Arkansas enterprise budgets for both crops, walk through a side-by-side return comparison, and explain why canola holds a gross revenue edge on paper.  The conversation also covers the fundamentals driving the wheat rally and the practical realities of canola's closed-loop marketing, limited delivery points, and the learning curve growers may face with a new crop.

Ryan Loy sits down with Matthew Marchant, a PhD student in agricultural economics at the University of Arkansas, to discuss how highly pathogenic avian influenza moves through the Mississippi flyway. They explain why the current strain spreads mainly through wild waterfowl rather than farm-to-farm contact, and how that ties bird flu risk to a predictable seasonal pattern that widens across the flyway from fall into spring. Marchant walks through what that seasonality means for producers, from timing biosecurity efforts to preparing before peak exposure arrives each year

Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the August USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports, where a recurring theme of more acres but lower yields shaped the outlook for soybeans, long grain rice, corn, and cotton. They dig into the surprising jump in corn and soybean acreage, the drought driving yield cuts from Texas through the western Corn Belt, and why cotton comes down to what gets harvested rather than what gets planted. Hunter and Scott also cover Arkansas' record projected soybean yield, a 50,000-acre increase in long grain rice, and a record soybean crush forecast. Even with tighter supplies, they explain how improved price expectations for the 2026/27 marketing year offer a bright spot against still-elevated input costs.

Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy dig into why global cotton mill use is projected to reach its highest level since the 2017/18 marketing year, the fourth consecutive year of growth. They explain how the gain is concentrated in China, India, and Pakistan, which together account for nearly 75 percent of this year's increase, and why demand happening thousands of miles away shows up in the price an Arkansas producer sees. Ryan unpacks how rising crude oil prices have made cotton more competitive with polyester, and how tighter supply is pushing world ending stocks to their lowest point since 2018/19. They close on what stronger demand and a projected 73-cent season-average price could mean for cotton growers heading into the new marketing year.

In the third and final episode of our series on USDA's Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule, Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram dig into what the rule means for rice producers' premium costs, with a timely twist, since USDA moved to reinstate the prevented planting "plus-five" buy-up just before recording. Hunter breaks down why a seemingly small change could carry meaningful consequences for producers, why those effects vary so much from county to county, and what the reinstatement means for rice farmers going forward.

In this episode, Hunter Biram walks through how the share of long grain rice base shapes a farm's average Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment rate, drawing on the University of Arkansas PLC Payment Calculator to run the numbers. He explains why farms with roughly 500 base acres or fewer stay insulated from payment limits, while larger operations may face a whole farm average rate that falls short of recouping 2025's economic losses.  With per-acre net returns for rice running deep in the red, producers should visit their local FSA office and update their farm operating plans for the 2026 crop year before September 15th.

Hunter Biram is joined by Scott Stiles to go through the July 2026 WASDE report and what it means for Arkansas producers. They cover the sharp cut to long-grain rice production, now the smallest crop since 1993, and a higher price outlook. The conversation also gets into the surge in Arkansas soybean acres, a tighter corn balance sheet tied to European drought, and a larger cotton crop. With harvest running weeks ahead of schedule, better prices still aren't enough to fully offset rising input costs.