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US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama. The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted. The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research, based in Beijing) to unpack: Why “healthy competition” is a subtly new phrase in Beijing’s playbook, and what the shift in rhetoric signalsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s cryptic comment that China proposed “a bigger deal” over the weekend, and what that might meanWhy AI got an explicit shout-out in Xi’s comments during the bilateral meetings, and how managing the technology is becoming the new arms-control issue of the US-China relationshipThe risk nobody’s pricing in: If this meeting doesn’t build real momentum, the two follow-up meetings penciled in for later this year may just quietly fall off the calendarGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals. Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted. Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.”On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-host Cory Combs, sits down with Joerg – now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group – to unpack: Why “China Shock 2.0” isn’t really a shock at all, but a systemic feature of how Beijing plans its economy – which was written out in black and white years in advanceThe shipping container math that captures the trade imbalance better than any dollar figure: one container now leaves Europe for China for every four that come backWhy Wuttke thinks a stronger renminbi, not tariffs, may be China’s real concession on the table before October’s EU-China trade negotiation deadlineThe key Chinese tech sector Wuttke says Europe should consider closing its market to (and it’s not the one you’d guess)Why demographic collapse, not trade policy, might ultimately be China’s biggest vulnerability – and Europe’s unlikely opportunityThis episode is another banger, y’all. You won’t want to miss it!

China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack. But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack: Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalanceThe hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually fallingThe one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirelyPutting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end. Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one.Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models.Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users.On this week’s episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Eric discusses China’s approach to building AI offerings in the Global South with host Andrew Polk – but only after the two run through the flurry of travel and diplomacy Xi Jinping is undertaking throughout September. The two discuss the implications of Xi’s travels, then turn to China’s AI strategy in the region, touching on: How Xi turned a single stop in Egypt into a four-birds-one-stone diplomatic play, touching on the Iran war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Africa-China relations, and the dynamics around Xinjiang all at onceWhy the India-China thaw is real but fragile, and why Xi and Modi's sideline meeting at the upcoming BRICS summit matters more than anything on the summit's official agendaWhy China’s AI push into the Global South won’t really be about the models themselves – but about enabling those models with Huawei servers, support contracts, and services sold on top of free, open-weight codeWhy the "China is less secure" pitch against Chinese AI companies doesn't land in a Global South that trusts Washington about as little as it trusts BeijingWhy nobody in the Global South expects much from Xi's Washington visit, and why the mood in Beijing right now is just as hardened as it is in DCStrap in – we cover a lot of ground in this one!

The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is. To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of play.  In this episode, host Andrew Polk and Trivium colleague Cory Combs sit down with Evan to unpack: Why Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington, the first in over a decade, may be the one thing still holding the relationship togetherHow the trade war became a supply chain war back in April 2025, and why tariffs aren’t the main event anymoreWhy China keeps reaching for chokepoints tied to US national security instead of hitting the broader economy, and what that reveals about Beijing’s actual theory of leverageThe uncomfortable new front opening up: Beijing increasingly penalizing American companies for the crime of complying with US lawsIt’s another great discussion, so enjoy!

Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home. Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written. On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack: Why lumping AI labs, e-commerce platforms, and cybersecurity firms into the single regulatory category of “cyberspace enterprises” is a bigger deal than it soundsThe story behind AliExpress’s EUR 550 million EU fine, and why Chinese companies keep getting tripped up by rules they don’t fully understandOne vague line in the CAC’s latest policy doc that might matter most: Beijing says it will “regulate the overseas competitive behavior” of its own tech firms, with zero detail on howWhy cleaning up Chinese tech companies’ act abroad might get Beijing branded as the bad guy either way

China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.” Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectorsWhy deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poisonWhy even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume

Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally. US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack: How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in export controls it’s known about for agesWhy renting chips sits completely outside the rules that govern buying them, even when the end result is identicalWhy closing this gap risks a “double win” for Beijing: 1) marketing material to court the Global South with China’s AI stack and 2) and potential leverage to retaliate with rare earths, ultimately causing the US to back downWhy cutting off compute access could undermine trust in the US AI stack, like sanctions have eroded trust in the US dollar – and why that risk may be exactly what’s keeping policymakers’ finger off the trigger

When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull. But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about. Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.On this episode, host Andrew Polk sits down with Gerard, Dinny, and Cory to dive into: Why rare earths are a uniquely cheap and low-cost weapon for Beijing, and why other chokepoints like batteries carry far higher stakesHow China’s licensing regime doubles as a surveillance system, giving Beijing visibility into global supply chains it can use to ratchet pressure up or down at willThe “shoe that hasn’t dropped yet”: China’s shelved extraterritorial rule that could restrict any product containing Chinese-origin content, anywhere in the worldWhy intermediate goods are the next frontier to watch, and why China’s reaction function gets a lot murkier once controls move further down the production chain – into products with real commercial value to Chinese firms themselvesIt’s another great discussion – so enjoy!

On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities. And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’s first ever foreign-trade national security investigationWhy this round of retaliation was aimed squarely at the FCC and DHS, and how it traces back to actions on robotics, drones, and forced-labor sanctionsWhether Beijing’s unusually direct language about the Busan detente is a warning shot or a sign the deal is really at riskWhy neither side seems ready to blow up the agreement just yet, even as both keep testing its edges

US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies. Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China. On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that "multi-modal" strategy reveals about how it actually innovatesHow brutal domestic competition, not central planning, is driving some of China's biggest technological breakthroughsWhy Beijing tolerates crushing margin pressure on its own battery makers, and what it's betting that pain buysThe uncomfortable case for the US actually licensing "second-best" Chinese tech, rather than racing to rebuild it from scratch

Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place. There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack: The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too farWhy Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involution” 18 months ago, and what that rhetorical swap is designed to doHow China frames itself as both free trade’s champion and its victim, and why that framing leaves little room for compromiseWhy the US may have the least at stake here economically, and why Europe is where this fight actually gets decidedAs always, we hope you enjoy the discussion – reach out and let us know any thoughts or feedback.

China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year. In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. Let us know what you think about the new format!On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack: How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what formWhat "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidiesWhy Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cutsWhy none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up

A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test. His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Trivium Tech Analyst Bao Linghao (Shanghai) to unpack: Why DeepSeek's "no KPIs, no organization" culture is likely genuine rather than an investor pitch, and how a market-based valuation helps retain talentWhether DeepSeek's open-source commitment survives once – or if – it actually leads the frontier, given the pull to cash in once you get thereWhat Liang's "restraint" framing on pricing really means, and how DeepSeek's infrastructure edge lets it stay cheap without bleeding marginWhy Kimi K3's release upended assumptions about the US-China compute gap, and how "bench-maxxing" has muddied claims about how close Chinese models really areWhether China's crowded field of base-model labs is finally headed for real consolidationGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in. Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. Look for more of these in your feed soon.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack: Why MOFCOM's reported talks with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zhipu on export controls could reshape how Chinese model weights get releasedThe three priorities Beijing is trying to balance: model competitiveness, security risk, and controllabilityHow Kimi K3's release has intensified US anxiety, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floating possible sanctions over model distillationWhat Xi's WAIC speech signals about China staying committed to open source while tightening the regulatory leashGive it a listen and let us know what you think.