Advertise on podcast: Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week’s episode of Markets Happy Hour, host Aoifinn Devitt welcomes back Alan Dunne, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Archive Capital, for a wide-ranging look back at the year and a check-in on where markets stand today. Aoifinn and Alan revisit their January 2026 conversation to see what’s held up and what’s changed, covering geopolitical instability across Europe, the shifting AI narrative from “AI is good for stocks” to a more nuanced, risk-aware story, and why inflation has remained stubbornly high despite central bank targets. They dig into France’s bond market stress, rising borrowing costs, and elevated private debt levels, and compare that to the relative resilience seen across the rest of Europe. The conversation moves to the US, where upcoming elections, rising long-term yields, and a widening credit spread on AI infrastructure names like CoreWeave are raising fresh questions about the durability of the AI buildout. Alan and Aoifinn also cover the pressure building in US housing, the SpaceX IPO and what it signals for the IPO market heading into next year, how climate transition plans are starting to lower corporate borrowing costs, and where commodities like copper and gold fit into portfolio positioning for the year ahead. Topics covered in this episode: A look back at 2026 market predictions and what’s played out Why the AI narrative has shifted from bullish to more cautious France’s bond yield spike and Europe’s broader fiscal picture US elections, rising yields, and credit market warning signs in AI infrastructure Housing market strain under high mortgage rates The SpaceX IPO and outlook for future tech listings Climate transition plans and their effect on borrowing costs Copper, gold, and commodities positioning for 2027 🔔 Subscribe for more weekly market insight and commentary from Markets Happy Hour. #MarketsHappyHour #Moneta #FixedIncome #AIInvesting #France #BondYields #Inflation #PortfolioStrategy #Commodities #MarketOutlook #2027Outlook #CreditMarkets

In this podcast the Terrible Twins are back! No I'm not referring to the trouble that can ensue when I invite Ian Mc Knight on the podcast for a banter - I'm referring to the Terrible Twins stalking markets - interest rate hikes and AI concerns. In light of our guest this week we do spend more time than usual on the UK economy and it is a robust discussion in which we challenge some of the growth assumptions across Europe as well as China, and ask who the relative winners will be in the export/import global trade cycle as well as in US markets as they currently stand. As usual with Ian , this is a robust discussion that at times controversial, never mundane and particularly enjoyable and lively.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we pledge to go jargon free - after I was caught out using the jargon "K shaped recovery" on BBC business news on Wednesday morning. Lesson learned! This week, which comes to you from Amsterdam (with some bad conference room lighting) we discuss the heightened inflation expectations, which are still paired with strong spending - creating a bit of a disconnect. We ask about whether that suggests the classic "K shaped recovery" is unraveling - that the lower end consumer is getting some "legs" and starting to spend more. We are unconvinced of that - given the fact that food prices remain high across the board - and could "poison" the well of future inflation. Energy too remains at high levels, so can interest rates possibly not follow inflation upwards? Digging into equity markets, earnings are growing in the S&P at 27%, undoubtedly powered by AI and we ask about how in fact these margins can possibly be expanding with rising costs and a more discerning consumer. We wonder if this is short term - have the costs been artificially suppressed and has the consumer pulled expenditure forward? The start of the AI cycle really killed the trajectories of both value stocks and small cap stocks, and there has been no repeat of the rotation and mean reversion that has typically presented in these cases. A sector that has languished in equity markets and is acutely exposed to interest rates is real estate, and from residential housing bearing the weight of 7% mortgages to commercial property caught off-guard by rising rates, there seems to be few places to hide in real estate investing today - except, perhaps, in SF houses or data centers. For investment portfolios public equities remain the buoyancy that has kept the portfolios afloat as rising bond yields have eroded fixed income return and real estate remains stagnant. While we have heard some anecdotal evidence of private equity returns and distributions slowly, behind the scenes, improving, any portfolio that is underweight public equities will lag its benchmark. Whether this matters is another question - most investors target steady state absolute returns, but it does remain to be seen if shifts will take place in these targets as equities dominate the headlines and steal an increasing share of the pie.

Welcome to the first Markets Happy Hour webinar. Host Aoifinn Devitt welcomes Will Stephenson, co-founder of Fiber Pay, to discuss why currency planning is one of the most overlooked pieces of global wealth management. In this conversation, Aoifinn and Will cover: "Currency architecture" — mapping your income, spending, and investments across the currencies tied to where you live, work, and invest How to time and execute large currency transfers, including real estate purchases abroad Strategies for managing currency risk during the gap between signing and closing on property Why FX forecasts are harder to rely on than ever — and what that means for planning How inflation and interest rate trends compare across the US, UK, Europe, and emerging markets The US dollar's role as a safe haven and what's driving demand to convert dollars into other currencies right now Why clients should plan early rather than scrambling at the last minute Whether you're buying property abroad, funding a child's education overseas, or simply holding wealth in more than one currency, this episode offers a practical look at the planning questions that matter most. 🔔 Subscribe for more from the Markets Happy Hour series. #CurrencyExchange #WealthManagement #ForeignExchange #InternationalRealEstate #MarketsHappyHour #Moneta

This week’s Markets Happy Hour podcast comes to you from a secret garden in New York City, as I wrap up a full day of interviews and two media appearances – Bloomberg and Fox News. It is therefore quite abbreviated this week, as we get ready for our Live Markets Happy Hour Webinar with a special feature on currency architecture next week. This week we talk about the “Economy that Never Sleeps” from the “City that Never Sleeps. The inflation pressure from energy seems to be confusing the read that the Fed is trying to take from inflation, and as the ripple effect of last week’s interest rate hike are felt through markets, the reaction remains subdued – until now. It remains to be seen whether mortgage rates at 7% proves to be a critical milestone in terms of its deterrent effect on homebuilding, home sales and general consumer wellbeing Markets continue to narrow and the market cap weighted indices are diverging from equal weighted again. Tech earnings remain strong, but non-tech earnings are also cutting in a very decent showing. Meanwhile geopolitics are continuing to be unpredictable but not in a ways that are unsettling markets while AI battle lines continue to be drawn.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we were delighted to be joined by Helen Thomas, founder of BlondeMoney (in 2016) to bring together the worlds of political and financial risk. She is deeply versed in UK and global politics. We start with the big news of the week - which, despite the title of the podcast being D-Day for Doomers, is now yesterday’s rate hike by the Fed. While small (25 bps) the hike felt momentous because of the shift of the direction, the reality that inflation is not falling and the fact that the new Chair Kevin Warsh clearly went against the direction of travel that President Trump would have wanted. This shores up the Fed’s independence as an institution. On the other hand it is actually not that significant at all if we look back to the history of bond yields. Helen turns her gaze on the political landscape across Europe and how it is evolving, sharing insights on the forces that have driven some of the current fractures. We speak about what the EU Commission President has said we need to do in terms of “urgently reimagining” our partnerships, and the recent overtures by Canada to become a member of the EU is just one example of how the Middle Powers may start to forge their own – alternative – path

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by HSBC Asset Management Global Investment Strategist and “market storyteller” Joe Little. A legendary force on Linked IN, we were delighted to feature his insights here for 30 minutes. We start with picking apart the prevailing narratives and counternarratives that continue to course through markets driven on the one hand by last week’s positive employment number in the US and ask whether these stats can be relied upon as much as ever. Narratives differ of course, with the rise of populist politics in the Germany framed as a reaction to a perceived “dark place”. We ask whether the resilience in markets – whether to the oil price, geopolitics or tariff newschatter – is due to a fundamental lower reliance on these things – a diversification of causal factors or a combination of an outsized The bond market has been getting a lot of attention as a “showdown” seems to be ongoing between Scott Bessent who has suggested that he “is the house” and can persist with the current bond market intervention. The bond market currently seems unconvinced by this suggestion and bond yield continue to gap out in global markets – most notable in the UK. Equity markets have been a bit choppier over the past few week or so and the strain of higher oil prices as well as the bond market movements have continued to introduce some uncertainty. The traditional relationship with higher bond yields would be that as bond yields rise, the equity market premium has to adjust in order to compensate for the higher risk run in equities. We turn as the last section of the podcast to Emerging Markets, which have been buoyed by strong sentiment, strong currencies and relative attractiveness of their bond yields as the dollar comes under pressure. Joe discusses the reasons for the higher bond yield and how this relates to the dollar outlook, and suggests that it is coherent. He further cites the evolution of many emerging market institutions from their crisis fighting mode into a newer state that is instilling confidence and trust – due to measures like raising rates to avert hyperinflation or maintaining independence and an even keel amid geopolitical uncertainty. This all underscores the case for diversification of portfolios, and careful rebalancing.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Mark Tinker, CIO of Tosca Fund Management in Hong Kong, and, more importantly for us here a prominent commentator and the author of two blogs - Market Thinking and This Is Not Investment Advice. In this extended (full) version of the Markets Happy Hour recording of earlier today we discuss cost-push v. demand-pull inflation and why only one can be controlled - what the REAL intention of of the Fed and Scott Bessent is, and how there is more alignment than might be assumed (hint it ties back to the hyperscalers and their ability to raise capital). We discuss the fragility of some of the AI models and the case for rotation into the second tier beyond the hyper-scalers and ask about the robustness of the current earnings wave. Just like other data is increasingly uncertain, the data we are seeing in earnings may be self-referential too - just like the AI financing boom we have been seeing. Our deeper dive version of this podcast debates the reason for the struggle of active managers in recent years as well as a thought experiment around AI financing and what is actually real using an example of the subscribers on Mark's blog.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Mark Tinker, CIO of Tosca Fund Management in Hong Kong, and, more importantly for us here a prominent commentator and the author of two blogs - Market Thinking and This Is Not Investment Advice. We have here an abbreviated version of our longer discussion which involved two deeper dives as set out below. This abbreviated version touches on cost-push v. demand-pull inflation and why only one can be controlled - what the REAL intention of of the Fed and Scott Bessent is, and how there is more alignment than might be assumed (hint it ties back to the hyperscalers and their ability to raise capital). We discuss the fragility of some of the AI models and the case for rotation into the second tier beyond the hyper-scalers and ask about the robustness of the current earnings wave. Just like other data is increasingly uncertain, the data we are seeing in earnings may be self-referential too - just like the AI financing boom we have been seeing. Our deeper dive version of this podcast is also listed in the same channel. In that we do a deeper dive into the struggle of active managers in recent years as well as a thought experiment around AI financing and what is actually real.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am delighted to be joined by Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Partners Group. Our conversation starts with a traditional vibe check on the narratives and counter-narratives driving market sentiment. She speaks about a multi - engine economy growing thanks to a stable consumer, soaring Capex, spending on areas such as defence. We move then to discuss Scott Bessent's Big Bet, which is clearly that his intervention in the bond market wills stem the rise at the long end of the yield curve. Anastasia notes the difference in focus of each of the Fed and the Treasury Secretary with a focus on different ends of the curve, and notes the reason for long term yields being as high as they are - higher growth expectations, the stickier inflation, but also the sell-off by other US Treasury bond holders. Discussing geopolitics she notes the amount of oil still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and the fact that only a fraction of the trade between the US and Canada are actually affected by tariffs, and we mull over the workarounds that are likely to follow once the new realities of global trade filter through. Finally we focus on the innovation economy and the role of private equity in it - noting the uptick in flows into private equity so far this year and the role that private equity investors are likely to play in driving innovation within their portfolio companies. In conclusion we note the passing of music legend and philanthropist Dolly Parton and how she defied expectations, leaving you with her immortal words "Find out who you are, and do it on purpose" .

This week we have a bonus episode of the Markets Happy Hour podcast in which we feature Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of Syz Bank, recorded on site in Geneva. I have followed Charles-Henry and his original – and sometimes provocative – takes on LinkedIN for some time and it was great to gather his views as summer comes to an end. Our conversation features a Europe-based lens on market events and dynamics and we begin with a discussion of the Swiss budget surplus – an increasingly anomalous feature among developed nations. We turn then to the European economic vibes and the prevailing conclusion is that earnings, growth numbers and other economic indicators are generally better than expected revealing a surprising resilience. We ask whether the sluggishness that led to many European nations not being at the frontlines of the current AI buildout may not be such a disadvantage after all. Certain nations such as France have abundant nuclear power, data centre construction is underway and policy moves to protect AI sovereignty might place local operators in a strong position. Charles-Henry points out that European companies would be well placed to see productivity gains from AI, given their relatively small size. He notes the earnings bull market in Europe which could be enough to push markets higher. We discuss how Europe benefits from global trade and also how its dependence on US services is very different from 2008. The weakness in Europe is not just from AI but also from the European industrial base, and he notes that Europe will have to invest in itself and really focused on innovation. When discussing the USD and its recent weakness Charles-Henry argues that the US is being forced into the choice of supporting the bond market OR the currency, and like Japan has prioritised supporting the bond market, given the debt load as well as the dependence on rates within the economy.

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Anwiti Bahuguna Co-CIO of Northern Trust Asset Management, who has had a long history of multi-asset investment for a range of institutional and wealth management clients. The title of the podcast refers to the "Ferragosto" phase of Eurosummer, which has been tumultuous and newsfilled, and quite ferocious bot in terms of its heat and its pace. Discussing inflation, Anwiti argues that the current AI buildout is predominantly inflationary, and we discuss how this translates into an underweight to bonds in the multi-asset programmes that she runs at Northern Trust Asset Management. The economy is fundamentally strong, which is shoring up equity markets and driving them to new highs, she stresses that the cyclical forces have been weaker while structural forces remaining quite robust. This disconnect is evident in the bond market when we compare developed markets, which in the past week have seen rates gap out to a 19 year high in the case of the US 30 year. We reflect on the two consecutive Fed interventions (the first one around the Yen and the second one around bond buying in the long end of the US) in the bond market as revealing as to the importance that is placed on shoring up the fixed income market (a theme echoed during our Europe-featured bonus podcast also launched today). We also ask if the initial negative reaction to the Fed communication schedule is premature - given the very early stage of the tenure of the new Chair. Anwiti suggests that any change would be received with some trepidation, and that this does not necessarily point to a Fed that is "losing the room". Turning to equity markets we strip out the tech effect and see that under Trump 2.0 equity markets have been broadly strong. This should not suggest, however, that other sectors are not exposed to AI, it does continue to underpin all sector momentum. Looking on a global level - we discuss the earnings strength on a global front, and point to the earnings growth in Emerging Markets, Europe and Japan, and look to the relatively strong performance of emerging markets as a whole. There are of course exceptions here - losers as well as winners - in particular in India, which has been hugely boosted by outsourcing recently. This has recently seen some attrition led by AI. To conclude we discuss the cracks in the current positive momentum, suggesting that both the higher yields present in hyperscaler credit as well as the hesitation regarding private credit segment all point to a healthy scepticism regarding boundless capex spend, as well as the potential for some loans to go bad. The suggests that the biggest "scorecard" for private credit is what is happening in the investment grade market and the reckoning there.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am joined by Simon Evan-Cook, a Multi-Asset Fund Manager at Downing Fund Managers who writes the Fund of Funds Insider column for Citywire. He was previously a AAA-rated fund manager, winning multiple investment awards, including four prestigious ‘Fund Manager of the Year’ titles. Today we reflect on a week that has revealed much about a few split screens that we are seeing in markets. On the inflation side there is the split between inflation expectations, which have been low, the headline numbers which are still subdued and the rising commodity prices including oil. There is a split screen around market volatility too - relatively low overall market volatility, that has seemed to be muted on the overall market side, while it has been accentuated within individual sectors - e.g. semiconductors have been 5x as volatile as the general market. Besides reflecting on economic vibes, particularly as they relate to the UK and the dependence on real estate and housing prices, we also discuss the importance of the recent Yen intervention and what it reveals about the global market system, as well as the outlook for Japan. Moving to broader portfolio construction, Simon admits his preference for equities and how he approaches portfolio construction. He is watching from the sidelines on private credit, and we discuss how some of the muddy waters surrounding that sector have been showing in the trading price of these companies. Their defaults may be subdued but their watchlists tell another story.

In this week's abbreviated Markets Happy Hour podcast we discuss the Trip to Nowhere that the on-again-off-again hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have created. Coming to you live from the mountains we reflect on inflation movements and the divergence with inflation expectations, as well as the bond market's persistent skepticism regarding Fed policy and the fiscal security of various developed markets. Equity markets have been positive for Europe year to date and earnings and revenues have been strong across the US, Europe and Asia, while venture capital returns have come under the microscope with the sale of Air Table to Bending Spoons.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss the split US Fed as they look to the next direction of interest rates. We also touch on the devastation caused by the wildfires across Europe so far this summer - and ask about their impact on policy, productivity and morale. Moving back to market forces, we remain pretty much where we were already with the state of geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz - we have had a halt to hostilities then an outbreak again. The oil price remains the most hard hit asset and has swung around fairly notably in the past week. All of this adds "fuel" to the inflation worry, which bond markets seemed to take seriously this week. The split Fed and the lack of direction - deliberately - under the new chairman left a rather sour taste, with bond market selling off. This deliberate lack of telegraphing and the Fed itself almost "Taking the Fifth" went down like a proverbial lead balloon and it is interesting to ask if there will be an erosion of trust and therefore a sundering of the link between the Fed and the bond market that it may seek to influence. Other economic vibes percolated, particularly around Europe where on the one hand old industries like German carmakers, continued to struggle, while there was some surprising pockets of growth - such as among German start-ups, while defence stocks continued to perform well. Sovereignty is increasingly a buzzword when it comes to AI - whether at a corporate level - where there is increasing reticence around giving up the proprietary layer IP to a frontier model, such as by feeding it to Claude. This was first raised by Alex Karp of Palantir, reinforced by Satya Nadella of Microsoft and now increasingly in evidence as the frontier model labs roll out everything from design studios to their own drug development channels. Sovereignty is in issue too within Europe where countries have started to reject the use of Palantir and to "urgently" seek national champions due to security concerns with the uniformity of this software. The rise of French company Mistral as an Open AI competitor, while the other French AI company ChapsVision is emerging as the European competitor to Palantir and the French authorities announced in June that they would replace Palantir after a period of transition. Equity markets were unsettled, with some chartists suggesting that the fall in the Magnificent 7 was a sign that they were losing their place in the sun, replicating how the FAANGs had fallen out of favour after 2018-2019. This rotation out of tech had favoured European indices with some commentators suggesting that they are now the anti-tech index. - is this a good or a bad thing thought? For investors seeking to diversify their portfolios it is surely a good thing - not every company will be a tech company will they? In other news prediction markets are now not optimistic on an OpenAI IPO even in 2027. Times are changing.