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This episode opens with a proposal from Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that Russia join the Organization of Turkic States, and we then turn to a conversation about the future of Russian control of Kyrgyzstan’s natural gas pipeline network. When a resident in Talas asked about piped gas earlier this month, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov warned that he could take back the network from Russia’s Gazprom, and in doing so invoked the infamous takeover of the Kumtor gold mine. The discussion examines what Gazprom acquired when it bought Kyrgyzgaz for $1 in 2013 (hint: a lot of debt), what taking the network back would actually entail, and where Kyrgyzstan would get its gas even if it owned the pipes. It also considers whether the threat is a bid for investment, an appeal to voters ahead of January’s election, or both. Anya Kuteleva, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Wolverhampton, discusses her research on oil museums. The interview focuses on Kazakhstan, especially Atyrau, and draws comparisons with museums in Azerbaijan, Russia and North America. Kuteleva describes how exhibits portray oil workers as people who helped build the country, and how corporate funding makes these museums valuable places to learn. Yet the environmental costs and the prospect of a future without oil get much less attention. She asks what that imbalance teaches visitors, including children, about the place of oil in everyday life. The final segment turns to Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and his ambition for his country to (eventually) receive $50 billion a year in remittances. A recent experience with Germany illustrates the gap between demand for skilled workers and actual hires, however. The discussion considers language training, incentives and public ratings for private recruiters, and the work that would still fall to neighbourhood bodies and embassies. Links and further reading Kyrgyzstan and regional diplomacy * Tokayev’s speech at the Organization of Turkic States summit in Ankara — his proposal for Russian participation in the OTS+ format or as an observer. * Japarov’s exchange with residents in Talas — the warning to Gazprom and the reference to Kumtor. * Kyrgyzstan and the limits of Russian gravity — the wider context for the gas dispute. * Centerra’s account of the 2022 Kumtor settlement and Kumtor Gold Company’s account of the transfer. * The Russia–Kyrgyzstan gas agreement — Article 11 covers renewal, return of the assets and compensation. * Gazprom Kyrgyzstan’s plans for network investment in 2027–28 and the separate supply and transit contracts through 2040. * Kyrgyzstan’s election calendar — the presidential vote is scheduled for 27 January 2027. Anya Kuteleva and the oil museums * Anya Kuteleva’s academic profile — senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Wolverhampton. * Interpretive Infrastructure: Oil Museums and Corporate-State Power in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan — her open-access research article. * Petrocultural Imaginaries in the Halls of Kazakhstan’s Museums — more on how Kazakhstan’s museums present the oil industry. Uzbekistan and labour migration * The Uzbek presidency’s readout of the 2 November meeting — German language and vocational training, private recruitment agencies, and the roles of mahallas and embassies. * Mirziyoyev’s remarks on the $50 billion remittance ambition. * Uzbekistan’s central bank on remittances in January–September 2026 — a benchmark for the scale of that ambition. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This episode opens by examining the mounting pressure on independent journalism in Kazakhstan, following Reporters Without Borders’ inclusion of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on its list of press freedom predators. The cases include Bagdat Asylbek, whose apartment was entered while police questioned him; Amangeldy Batyrbekov, who faces a further period in custody after an administrative jail term; and Lukpan Akhmedyarov, whose travel ban remained in place despite prosecutors finding it unlawful. The discussion connects these individual experiences to restrictions on parliamentary reporting, new accreditation rules for foreign journalists, and the abuse of copyright complaints to disrupt social media accounts. It asks what these overlapping pressures mean for public accountability, while acknowledging the difficulty of identifying those responsible for particular online attacks. Writer and translator Jake Zawlacki discusses his English translation of Mosquito, Akhmet Baitursynov’s poetry collection, first published in 1911. The interview places the poems within a wider project of education, language reform and Kazakh self-determination associated with the Alash movement. Zawlacki describes their urgency, humour and vulnerability, and explains the challenges of translating archaic language, preserving the sequence of ideas and finding an English musicality without reproducing every rhyme. The conversation also considers how much Central Asian literature remains unavailable in English and which works might come next. Finally, the episode revisits Marco Rubio’s visit to Samarkand, his business delegation and the C5+1 ministerial. The discussion covers the announced U.S.–Uzbekistan commercial package, critical minerals, Saida Mirziyoyeva’s prominent role, possible aviation links and space cooperation. Rubio’s acceptance of Central Asia’s relationships with other powers raises a broader question: could a narrower, more transactional American approach prove productive within the region’s geographical and economic constraints? The test is whether diplomatic attention and headline deal announcements translate into sustained commercial relationships. Links * Reporters Without Borders: the 2026 Press Freedom Predators List — the list discussed in the introduction. * Adil Soz’s English-language news and monitoring — the press freedom organisation recommended throughout the conversation. * Bagdat Asylbek: police questioning and the break-in at his apartment. * Amangeldy Batyrbekov: two-month remand. * Lukpan Akhmedyarov: prosecutors find the travel ban unlawful — Vlast’s report, in Russian. * Adil Soz’s Facebook page restricted following a copyright complaint. * Committee to Protect Journalists: prosecutions, bans and spurious copyright claims in Kazakhstan — includes Akhmedyarov and his YouTube project, Prosto Zhurnalistika. * Mosquito — Academic Studies Press — Akhmet Baitursynov, translated by Jake Zawlacki; publisher information and purchase options. * Jake Zawlacki’s newsletter, Frippery and Flummery. * Rubio’s remarks at Registan Square, alongside Saida Mirziyoyeva — includes the question about China, his response on cooperation with other countries, and the possible Miami flight. * C5+1: Historic Partnership, Prosperous Future — full joint statement. * US–Uzbekistan Business and Investment Council: the announced $12 billion package. * Full business-council remarks by Mirziyoyev and Rubio — includes the description of 54 agreements and prospective initiatives. * Daniel Rosenblum’s interview with RFE/RL — the business mission, practical constraints and limits of American influence. * Kazakhstan’s readout of Rubio’s bilateral meeting — includes his interest in a subsequent visit to Kazakhstan. * MozFest in Barcelona — the Mozilla Festival that Tlegen attended. Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s podcast opens with new Ukrainian figures on Central Asian citizens recruited into Russia’s war against Ukraine. The state-run Khochu Zhit project says it has identified more than 20,000 recruits from the region, with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan accounting for the largest numbers. We examine the mixture of financial incentives, citizenship offers, coercion and deception behind recruitment, and the contrasting official responses in countries that prohibit participation in foreign wars. Population comparisons complicate the picture: Kazakhstan’s figure is closer to Uzbekistan’s than the raw totals suggest. Recent efforts to extract Kazakh citizens from Russia’s military also raise difficult questions about consular protection, individual responsibility and what awaits returnees at home. Our second topic is Central Asia’s changing internet geography. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have inaugurated a 380-kilometre fibre-optic cable across the Caspian, which could provide an alternative westward route towards Europe. We revisit the Internet Society’s CAPS Unlock-supported research on Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian networks and explain why another cable expands choice without eliminating every vulnerability. China’s role as the Caspian project’s contractor adds another dimension, alongside a separate announcement: Tajikistan’s new digital corridor to China through the Pamir Mountains. We consider what these routes could change, Uzbekistan’s interest in access, and the distinction between advertised capacity and the services users actually receive. For our interview, recorded during ASIAC Days in Almaty, we spoke with Matthew Heneghan, an ESRC doctoral researcher at the University of Glasgow. His research examines how migrant remittances shape the economies and politics of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Money sent home begins as a private transfer between family members, but banks and governments increasingly seek to draw these flows into formal financial systems. We discuss how remittance histories can help households qualify for credit, the commercial opportunities this creates, and whether wider access to financial services comes with adequate protections for the people whose earnings sustain the system. Links Russia recruited more than 20,000 Central Asian citizens, according to Khochu Zhit, Khochu Zhit Telegram channel Uzbekistan reported 338 mercenarism cases across foreign conflicts, Gazeta.uz Tajik authorities reported no punishment for participation in the Ukraine war, Asia-Plus Kazakh lawyer reports eleven citizens removed from the combat zone, Ak Zhaiyk Tokayev and Aliyev inaugurate the Trans-Caspian fibre-optic line, Akorda Kazakhstan Internet Landscape: Understanding Threats and Opportunities, Internet Society, supported by CAPS Unlock Uzbekistan’s proposed access to the Trans-Caspian cable, Gazeta.uz Tajikistan launches a digital corridor to China, Fergana Matthew Heneghan’s professional profile Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, we begin with Turkmenistan’s announcement that its e-visa system has finally gone live. On paper, this could remove a major obstacle for visitors. Tourists have traditionally needed a letter of invitation and a package from a licensed local agency, with hotels, transport and a guide arranged in advance. The new system is supposed to move the application online and eliminate the separate invitation. Yet crucial details remain unclear: the portal is difficult to locate, and the authorities have not explained eligibility, fees, processing times or whether travellers can apply without an intermediary. We ask whether this represents a genuine opening, or does it simply adds a digital layer to an unusually restrictive system? Our second topic is the 25 percent rise in trade among the five Central Asian states. They exported $8.1 billion in goods to one another between January and July, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan responsible for more than 80 percent of the total. We look beyond the headline at Kazakhstan’s dominant role, Uzbekistan’s expansion as both buyer and seller, Turkmen gas and electricity exports, and the threefold rebound in Kyrgyz-Tajik trade after their border reopened. The figures point to stronger regional ties, but not yet a common market. Much of the increase appears to involve larger shipments of familiar products along established routes, while smaller private exporters still face customs delays, certification rules, currency constraints and expensive logistics. And for this week’s interview, we spoke with Zhanibek Arynov, Assistant Professor at Nazarbayev University’s Graduate School of Public Policy. His ongoing research uses focus groups with university students to test whether a Central Asian identity exists beyond official diplomacy. His preliminary findings suggest that young Kazakhs do see Central Asia as a coherent region, while remaining Kazakh first and Central Asian second. They feel closest to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, know less about Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and show little attachment to the older, Russia-associated idea of Eurasianism. Arynov cautions, however, that enthusiasm for regional unity may partly reflect limited knowledge of neighbouring countries and of the difficult choices that closer integration would raise. Links * Turkmenistan Launches E-Visas and Online Registration for Foreign Citizens, Turkmenistan Information Portal * Intra-Regional Trade in Central Asia in January–July 2026, Center for Economic Research and Reforms * Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries: Trends, Barriers, and Prospects, by Yuliy Yusupov * Central Asia’s Ticket to Ride Out of Trade Isolation, by Yuliy Yusupov * Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System, by Zebo Isakova * Zhanibek Arynov’s academic profile, Nazarbayev University Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

We began this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast with the deaths of 14 Kazakh servicemen during a naval exercise on the Caspian coast. Seventeen men were swept into the sea during an amphibious landing, but only three survived. The Defence Ministry initially attributed the disaster to a sudden deterioration in the weather, but weather forecasters had already issued a warning. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev later said the servicemen had not been properly equipped with life jackets. Five officers have been detained, Defence Minister Dauren Kosanov has been removed, and two commissions are examining both the incident and the wider condition of Kazakhstan’s armed forces. The tragedy has revived arguments over military safety, compulsory service and whether lessons were learned after a similar fatal exercise in 2015. Also, we considered Kyrgyzstan’s order for 10 freight locomotives from the U.S. company Wabtec. The purchase will renew almost a third of the national operator’s fleet and comes as Kyrgyzstan builds the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Wabtec is American, but its regional manufacturing base is the LKZ factory in Astana, which it now owns outright. We trace that factory’s Kazakh, Russian and American history, and ask how the locomotive order fits alongside Chinese railway construction and Kyrgyzstan’s new transit-trade agreement with Pakistan. These projects reveal an emerging transport system built from American technology, Kazakh industry, Chinese infrastructure and access to South Asian ports. For our interview, recorded during ASIAC Days in Almaty, we spoke to Aleksei Chigadaev, a doctoral candidate in political science at Freie Universität Berlin. His ongoing research treats Chinese e-commerce as a form of infrastructural power. Chinese companies may supply not only a product but also the marketplace, payment system, warehouse, delivery network and data storage behind the purchase. This makes trade more efficient and easier to regulate, but it may also leave Kazakhstan dependent on commercial systems controlled elsewhere. Links * 14 Dead on the Caspian: What Questions Has the Tragedy Posed for Kazakhstan’s Army?, Informburo * Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Dismisses Defence Minister After 14 Die During Naval Exercise, Reuters * Bodies of Two Missing Caspian Servicemen Found; Search Operation Completed, Kazakhstan Ministry of Defence * Kyrgyzstan Will Purchase 10 Mainline Freight Locomotives from the United States, Kabar * How Kazakhstan Is Poised to Drive Wabtec’s Growth in Central Asia, Wabtec * Work Proceeds on Tunnels for the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway, Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport and Communications * Joint Statement by the Leaders of Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, after an unplanned delay, we return to the podcast with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s seemingly growing reliance on Russian natural gas for its domestic needs. The country plans to buy around 11 billion cubic metres from Gazprom in 2026, almost three times last year’s volume, with another 9 billion under discussion for 2027. That sounds counterintuitive for a major oil-and-gas producer. The explanation lies less in the size of Kazakhstan’s reserves than in its ability to process the gas it extracts and turn it into marketable fuel. Disruptions at Tengiz, damage to the Russian processing plant serving Karachaganak and repeated delays to new processing capacity at Kashagan have squeezed supply just as household connections and industrial demand have expanded. Russian imports may address the immediate shortage, but the continued high volumes anticipated next year point to a more structural problem. In our other topic of discussion, we turn to the case of Mansur Movlayev, a 31-year-old Chechen dissident detained in Kazakhstan since May 2025. Russia seeks his extradition over an accusation that he financed extremist activity. Movlayev says the case is politically motivated and that Chechen security forces previously abducted and tortured him. Kazakhstan has refused him asylum and approved his extradition, although an interim-measures request from the UN Human Rights Committee calls on Kazakhstan not to remove him while it considers his complaint. After Kazakhstan’s Cassation Court upheld the refusal of asylum, Movlayev attempted to take his own life and reportedly made a second attempt while he received hospital treatment. His case tests Kazakhstan’s obligation not to return anyone to a country where they face a credible risk of torture. For our interview this week, we speak to Zebo Isakova, Doctor of Science in Economics at Kimyo International University in Tashkent. Her paper, “Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System,” appears in The Argument, CAPS Unlock’s policy essay series. Isakova argues that Uzbekistan has invested heavily in roads, railways and digital trade procedures without fully connecting the agencies responsible for individual shipments. Exporters must still navigate separate systems, repeat information and wait for sequential approvals. Larger companies can absorb those costs; smaller businesses frequently cannot. Links * Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System, by Zebo Isakova * Why Has Kazakhstan Started Deporting Political Activists?, by Temur Umarov * Russian Gas Supplies to Kazakhstan Could Triple to 11 bcm in 2026 — Deputy Minister, Interfax Kazakhstan * Россия захватывает газовую отрасль Казахстана? (Is Russia Taking Control of Kazakhstan’s Gas Industry?), Exclusive.kz * “I’m Tired of Injustice”: Chechen Activist Mansur Movlayev Attempted Suicide After Kazakhstan Denied Him Asylum, Bureau.kz * Остался только страх. Почему Казахстан отказывает в убежище уроженцу Чечни (Only Fear Remains: Why Kazakhstan Is Denying Asylum to a Chechen Native), Caucasus.Realities Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week, we begin in Bishkek, where leaders have gathered for a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that marks 25 years since the group took its present institutional form. The prestige has come at a considerable cost for the host city, with road closures, commercial restrictions and severe disruption as Kyrgyzstan stages the summit alongside the World Nomad Games. We look back at the SCO’s origins as a forum created to settle borders and reduce tension between China, Russia and the newly independent Central Asian states. We then ask what the organisation has become as its membership and ambitions have expanded. China now dominates regional trade, supplies the manufactured goods Central Asia wants and buys many of its raw materials. Russia remains important through migration, security and inherited economic links, but it cannot match China’s manufacturing capacity. We also examine the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s reported praise for “Chinese-style modernisation,” a revealing sign of China’s appeal as an economic, technological and increasingly political model. From Bishkek, we turn to Kazakhstan’s first election for its new 145-seat, single-chamber Kurultai. Adilet won 71.17 percent of the vote and 110 seats after it absorbed the former ruling party, Amanat. International observers said the election was technically well prepared but offered little genuine political choice. We consider whether Kazakhstan’s promised constitutional reset has produced anything substantially new, as well as the appointments of Yerlan Karin as vice president and Aibek Dadebay as speaker. We also look ahead to the new People’s Council and the succession speculation that now surrounds the 2029 presidential election. For our interview this week, we spoke with Ainagul Amatbekova, lead researcher for State of Youth Civic Engagement in Kyrgyzstan’s Shrinking Civic Space. The report challenges the idea that young Kyrgyz people have become apathetic. Civic participation has not disappeared, but has become quieter, safer and more local, with greater emphasis on volunteer work, mutual aid, education and online activity. Amatbekova explains how political pressure intersects with less visible barriers such as poverty, migration, gender and the divide between urban and rural communities. She also sets out what governments, civil society organisations and donors could do to make youth participation safer, more meaningful and more accessible. Links State of Youth Civic Engagement in Kyrgyzstan’s Shrinking Civic Space — https://capsunlock.org/publications/state-of-youth-civic-engagement-in-kyrgyzstans-shrinking-civic-space/ World Nomad Games: Did the Experiment Work? — https://capsunlock.org/world-nomad-games-did-the-experiment-work/ Xinhua report on Xi Jinping’s meeting with Shavkat Mirziyoyev and “Chinese-style modernisation” - https://russian.news.cn/20260901/860d5d94ce8d4b43b4af0f52c0ddd52d/c.html OSCE/ODIHR, preliminary findings on Kazakhstan’s parliamentary election - https://odihr.osce.org/odihr/667167 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Central Asia is one of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing regions, but what do the latest demographic trends tell us about its future? This episode begins with new population figures from Kyrgyzstan, where the latest statistics point not only to continued growth but also to accelerating urbanisation. The discussion explores why Bishkek is expanding faster than the country as a whole, what falling fertility means for the region in the longer term, and why demographic change is becoming one of Central Asia’s defining policy challenges. The conversation then turns to Uzbekistan, where the country’s first population census in more than three decades revealed more than 810,000 additional residents compared with previous official estimates. We discuss what this means for measuring economic performance, labour markets and long-term development planning, and why the census may ultimately improve policymaking despite raising new questions about productivity and employment. In our interview section, Hugh McLean, Senior Adviser on Climate Change Education at CAPS Unlock, discusses an upcoming new policy discussion paper arguing that climate change education should become a compulsory element of education systems across Central Asia. Drawing on more than 1,000 contributions from young people through the Turn It Around Central Asia initiative, he explains why climate education should focus not only on environmental knowledge but also on agency, community action and preparing future generations for a changing climate. The episode concludes with a discussion of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where China outlined its vision for global AI governance. The hosts examine Kazakhstan’s participation, the creation of a new international AI cooperation organisation, Central Asia’s increasingly important role in global technology diplomacy, and the opportunities and risks that accompany growing dependence on foreign AI ecosystems. LINKS Turn It Around project - https://capsunlock.org/projects/tia-central-asia-cards-eng/ Kyrgyzstan population news - https://24.kg/obschestvo/381849_naselenie_kyirgyizstana_prevyisilo_74milliona_chto_pokazala_novaya_statistika/ Uzbekistan population surpasses 39 million - https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2026/06/30/population-uzbekistan/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Central Asia’s electricity systems are under growing strain. Kyrgyzstan expects to import more than 4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity this year as rising demand collides with its heavy dependence on hydropower and low water levels at the Toktogul Reservoir. Tajikistan faces a similar problem: reduced inflows into the Nurek Reservoir have cut power generation and forced the government to curb electricity exports ahead of another difficult winter. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has set a new record for summer electricity consumption as extreme heat drives greater use of air conditioning. The country has so far managed to match demand with production, helped by rapid growth in solar generation. But the wider regional problem remains unresolved: despite complementary power systems, electricity trade within Central Asia still accounts for only a small share of total demand. This week’s guest is Antoine Magnier, a master’s student in political science at McGill University who recently completed an internship with CAPS Unlock. His new paper, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology, examines the deepening nuclear relationship between Kazakhstan and China. China needs secure uranium supplies for its rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear reactors and wants foreign markets for its technology. Kazakhstan wants to move beyond the export of raw uranium and secure a larger role in fuel production, reactor construction and the wider nuclear supply chain. Magnier explains how Astana is attempting to trade access to its resources for technology, while avoiding excessive dependence on either China or Russia. The episode closes with a look at how false copyright complaints and coordinated reporting campaigns can turn social-media moderation systems into tools of extortion and political pressure against journalists, media outlets and election observers in Kazakhstan. LINKS * Antoine Magnier, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology - https://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstans-uranium-bargain-trading-resources-for-technology-2/ * Uzbekistan’s record summer electricity consumption - https://www.spot.uz/ru/2026/07/11/electricity-summer/ * Kyrgyzstan’s projected electricity imports for 2026 - https://24.kg/ekonomika/381062_bolee_4milliardov_kilovatt-chasov_elektroenergii_importiruetkr_v2026_godu/ * Tajikistan’s winter electricity outlook and Nurek Reservoir levels - https://asiaplus.news/2026/07/13/predstoyashhej-zimoj-sveta-budet-bolshe-ministr-energetiki-tadzhikistana-dal-prognoz-na-otopitelnyj-sezon/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Uzbekistan’s strategic outlook continues to evolve. This week we examine President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s landmark state visit to Georgia, the first by an Uzbek president in more than two decades. Beyond the diplomatic symbolism, we discuss what was actually agreed: plans to deepen cooperation on the Middle Corridor, new logistics infrastructure centred on Georgia’s Black Sea ports, and a growing economic partnership that could reshape Uzbekistan’s access to European markets. We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev has been convicted in the high-profile “Letter of the 75” case. We assess why the suspended prison sentence matters, what it says about the relationship between President Sadyr Japarov and his former ally, and whether the latest reshuffle of the country’s security apparatus represents genuine institutional reform or simply a redistribution of power. In our interview slot, we’re joined by Paolo Sorbello, editor of the English service of independent Kazakhstan news outlet Vlast.kz, to discuss his major recent investigation into the country’s rapidly expanding digital surveillance infrastructure. Drawing on extensive reporting, Sorbello explains how facial recognition, AI-powered CCTV, smart-city projects and large-scale data collection are becoming embedded in everyday life. We discuss the government’s case for these technologies, their role in policing and public services, and the broader questions they raise about privacy, accountability and political control. LINKS * Paolo Sorbello’s feature on Kazakhstan’s digital surveillance system (Vlast.kz) - https://vlast.kz/english/69775-kazakhstans-big-brother.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

Russia’s fuel crisis is no longer just Russia’s problem. As Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt refinery capacity, shortages are spreading across the country, forcing Moscow to manage supplies and raising difficult questions for its neighbours. We examine what this means for Kazakhstan, whose own refining capacity remains limited despite its vast oil reserves, and for Kyrgyzstan, which depends heavily on Russian fuel imports. We also look at how widening price differences have fuelled an extraordinary smuggling economy stretching across Central Asia. We then turn to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Brussels. While headlines focused on the announcement of roughly $12 billion in commercial agreements, we ask whether the more consequential developments were political rather than financial. We discuss progress towards an EU-Kazakhstan visa facilitation agreement, new aviation arrangements, and what closer cooperation with European partners could mean for Kazakhstan’s long-term economic development and technological ambitions. In the interview slot, we speak with Hugh Williamson, director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch, following the publication of the organisation’s major new report on Turkmenistan’s campaign against activists at home and abroad. The report documents imprisonment, enforced disappearances, surveillance of exiled dissidents, pressure on family members, passport restrictions and alleged forced returns from countries including Turkey and Russia. Williamson explains how Turkmenistan has expanded its methods of transnational repression, why September 2022 marked a turning point, and whether international pressure can realistically improve one of the world’s most closed political systems. Links * Human Rights Watch report on Turkmenistan’s transnational repression of activists - https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/06/24/lives-destroyed-for-speaking-out-turkmen-activists-at-home-and-in-exile/the * Reuters report on Russia’s request to Kazakhstan for AI-92 gasoline supplies - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-asks-kazakhstan-gasoline-ease-shortages-sources-say-2026-06-24/ * European Commission statement following President Tokayev’s visit to Brussels - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/statement_26_1436 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode begins with Uzbekistan’s historic World Cup appearance, the first by any Central Asian country. The opening match against Colombia did not deliver the result Uzbek fans wanted, but it did produce the country’s first ever World Cup goal and a striking display of regional support. From fan zones in Bishkek to messages of solidarity from neighbouring countries, Uzbekistan’s campaign has become more than a football story. It has also offered a glimpse of how sport can shape identity, pride and regional feeling across Central Asia. The episode then turns to Kazakhstan, where the newly created Adilet party has merged with Amanat, the long-dominant pro-presidential party formerly known as Nur Otan. What initially looked like a potential shake-up of Kazakhstan’s managed political system now looks more like a rebranding exercise. The discussion looks at what the merger says about political engineering, elite management and the coming elections to Kazakhstan’s new single-chamber Kurultai. For this week’s interview, the focus shifts to a very different subject: happiness. Professor Shoirakhon Nurdinova of the Kimyo International University in Tashkent discusses her book Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia, the first major comparative study of subjective well-being across the region. The book asks how people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan evaluate their own lives, and whether standard international measures of happiness capture what really matters in Central Asia. Nurdinova argues that income and GDP alone do not explain life satisfaction. Family trust, freedom of choice, informal support networks, health, employment patterns and local institutions such as the mahalla can matter just as much, and sometimes more. The conversation also explores why Western models of happiness may fail to capture Central Asian realities, and what policymakers should learn from looking beyond growth figures. Links Shoirakhon Nurdinova, Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia — https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-95-3082-3 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast is devoted to a conversation with Luca Anceschi, Senior Lecturer in Central Asian Studies at the University of Glasgow, about his newly published book, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia. The book examines how three Central Asian governments, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Anceschi argues that the pandemic was not simply a public health emergency that these regimes struggled to manage. Under cover of crisis, governments expanded their control over travel, public information and dissent, while shielding politically connected elites and reinforcing existing patterns of authoritarian rule. The discussion looks at the blurred line between emergency rule and ordinary governance, the different ways Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan framed the pandemic, and why Turkmenistan’s refusal to acknowledge any COVID cases became one of the most striking examples of pandemic-era denialism anywhere in the world. We also discuss the longer history of crisis management in Central Asia, from Soviet-era disasters to post-Soviet emergencies, and how governments have often responded not by solving underlying problems, but by managing appearances, controlling data and suppressing alternative accounts. The episode also covers the role of journalists, activists and international organisations, including the World Health Organisation, in documenting or contesting official narratives. Links * Luca Anceschi, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia - https://www.routledge.com/Pandemic-Politics-in-Central-Asia-Authoritarian-Contagion/Anceschi/p/book/9789048562190 * CAPS Unlock roundtable summary: The missing link in Central Asia’s energy transition - https://capsunlock.org/roundtable-the-missing-link-in-central-asias-energy-transition/ * Aruzhan Meirkhanova’s report on Central Asia’s electricity grids - https://justclimate.fes.de/topics/energy-policy-fast-forward-to-renewables/powering-the-transition-rebuilding-central-asias-electricity-grids-for-regional-resilience.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s CAPS Unlock podcast does something different. Instead of our usual regional round-up, we devote the full episode to Turkmenistan, a country too often left at the margins of Central Asia analysis, or reduced to caricature. We speak with Gulshat Chmaisse, a PhD candidate at the Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, about her new paper, Turkmenistan’s migration policies: Reshaping economy and society, published as part of CAPS Unlock’s The Argument series. The paper centres on a striking paradox. Turkmenistan depends heavily on labour migration. Remittances sent home by citizens abroad help sustain household consumption, offset low wages and limited state support, and reduce pressure for domestic economic reform. Yet the state also obstructs migration through passport restrictions, opaque rules, exit bans, blacklists and informal payments. Rozyyeva explains why official data badly understate Turkmenistan’s dependence on remittances, how informal transfer networks and the black-market exchange rate shape household survival, and why Turkey has become the main destination for Turkmen labour migrants while Russia remains important for students. The conversation also explores the feminisation of Turkmen migration. As men face greater scrutiny at borders and through military-linked restrictions, women increasingly migrate independently and become primary earners abroad, especially in domestic and care work. That shift brings new economic agency, but also legal insecurity, family separation, exploitation and trafficking risks. Listeners can find Gulshat Chmaisse’s paper at CAPS Unlock’s website: www.capsunlock.org Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with the legal and political dispute around Gazprom and Naftogaz in Kazakhstan. A court at the Astana International Financial Centre recognised a Swiss arbitration award of around $1.4 billion in favour of Ukraine’s Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom. But Kazakhstan’s justice minister later said the ruling would not be enforced, arguing that the dispute had no meaningful legal connection to Kazakhstan or the AIFC. We discuss why this matters, what the AIFC was created to do, and why the case exposes a tension between the centre’s international commercial-law ambitions and the Kazakh state’s political caution. We then turn to new figures from the Eurasian Development Bank showing that trade between Central Asian countries has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $12.3 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan remains the largest intra-regional exporter, followed by Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan’s role has grown sharply. The numbers are encouraging, but the baseline remains low. We discuss why intra-regional trade matters, how it differs from Central Asia’s raw-material exports to outside markets, and why barriers such as customs friction, poor infrastructure and border corruption still hold the region back. In our interview slot, we speak with Johan Engvall, Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, about his new report, Forming a New Central Asia: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Build Regional Order Under Multipolar Pressure. We discuss the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan axis, Uzbekistan’s post-2016 regional opening, the role of consultative meetings, the Middle Corridor, and whether Central Asia is becoming more capable of acting as a region rather than merely reacting to Russia, China and the West. LINKS * AIFC Court judgment in Naftogaz v Gazprom - https://court.aifc.kz/judgments/case-no-2-of-2026/ * Eurasian Development Bank Telegram post on intra-regional trade - https://t.me/eabr_bank/1266 * Johan Engvall’s report, Forming a New Central Asia - https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5814--SE Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe