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Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host and diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. The African-American and Jewish communities were once allies in the civil rights struggle in the US. Julius Rosenwald, the Jewish businessman and head of retailing giant Sears, Roebuck, with Booker T. Washington to help fund nearly 5,000 schools for Black children across the Jim Crow South. Jews made up a significant percentage -- by some estimates the majority -- of non-Blacks marching in the South and organizing voter drives. Many leading rabbis, including Abraham Joshua Heschel and Joachim Prinz, marched with Dr. Martin Luther King. Dr. King was planning to bring hundreds of Black pastors and community leaders to Israel in 1967, but that historic visit was derailed by the Six-Day War. He was planning to lead the mission in 1968, but was tragically cut down by an assassin's bullet in Memphis before he could. Five hundred African-American and African pastors visited Israel this week to fulfill MLK's vision, and to work on rebuilding the Black-Jewish alliance, which has frayed in recent decades, characterized as often as not by mutual suspicion and ignorance. Rev. Dr. Benjamin Chavis began working with Dr. King at the age of 14 in North Carolina. He rose to prominence in the civil rights movement, and was wrongly convicted for a 34 year sentence for fighting for racial desegregation. After having his conviction overturned, Chavis became head of the NAACP and the Million Man March. Chavis, who has been active in fighting antisemitism and anti-Zionism, said that the downturn in Jewish-Black ties was the result of the deaths of the leaders who brought the communities together in the 1960s. He stressed that there would not have been an effective civil rights movement without the support of the Jewish community, and that is one of the reasons the two communities must work on the relationship. "Blacks and Jews are stronger together than separate and apart," said Chavis. "I think Blacks have to speak out more against antisemitism. I think Jews have to speak out more against racism against Blacks and other communities of color." If Dr. King was alive, he said, he would say the key to a democratic Middle East is a strong Israel, not a weak Israel. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host and diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. The midterms were a disaster for US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The Democrats seized control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, including in traditionally deep-red states like Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas. They also made important gains at the state level across the country. Several proudly anti-Israel candidates won their races, including Abdul Al-Sayed in Michigan and a trio of Zohran Mamdani-backed Democrats in New York City. Was the election about the US relationship with Israel? And what does it mean for the future of that relationship? To analyze the implications of the 2026 midterms, we are joined once again by Michael Oren, a scholar of the Middle East, Israel's former ambassador to Washington, and an expert on the US-Israel relationship. He said that the 50-year special relationship between Israel and the US ended on Tuesday, and the implications will be felt beyond the issue of military aid. Even though Israel wasn't responsible for many of the processes driving US politics, it is on the receiving end of them. MAGA isolationism and the rise of the Democratic Socialist might have their roots in domestic politics, but they have profound implications for Israel. Israel, said Oren, accelerated those processes by failing to curb West bank violence and avoiding any mention of peace with the Palestinians or Syria. Jerusalem can mitigate some of the fallout and soften some of the blows, he said. Still, it should start diversifying its military and economic partners, and make clear that it will not be bound by any deal between the US and Iran. As the US moves to cut off military aid, he said, Israel should be working overtime to transform the relationship into one of a technological and AI partnership, especially with the Pentagon. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host and diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. On Tuesday, Israelis went to the polls for the first time since the Hamas invasion of October 7, 2023. One might think the massacre and the subsequent wars would result in a massive political shake-up. But they did not. Israelis stuck to their voting patterns from four years ago, despite everything that has happened since. Neither the Benjamin Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition Gadi Eisenkot bloc has a clear path to 61 seats and a government. A major headline from the elections is the massive turnout in the Arab sector, driven by a desire to get Itamar Ben-Gvir out of office. That only complicates the math. Though the two Arab parties want Netanyahu out of power, most parties in the opposition bloc have said they won't sit with them. Another round of elections is a possibility, but that is not an ideal outcome. It will cost the economy over $1 billion, will extend the political deadlock for months, and will bring in another period of irresponsible campaign rhetoric. More and more voices are calling for a unity government, but that won't be easy to bring about. Netanyahu will want to lead it, but the Eisenkot bloc ran on ousting him. There is an outside force that could make that happen, and that force sits in the White House. US President Donald Trump has every reason to push for it, besides the taboo against involvement in other countries' domestic politics. But Trump clearly doesn't care about that, having twice endorsed Netanyahu in the lead-up to elections. He wants a stable Israel with which he can partner in confronting Iran and making peace with Saudi Arabia. A rotational government with Netanyahu leading Israel for two years -- the remainder of Trump's term -- then contending for the role of Israel's president as Eisenkot takes over would make sense for Trump. It could also get rid of Ben Gvir, whom the Trump Administration sees as a troublemaker who harms both Israeli and US interests. If President Isaac Herzog isn't able to get the sides together, then look out for an invitation to the White House for the party leaders. That could be a good outcome for Trump, and might be the best chance that Israel has as well. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did something rare -- he convened a group of Israeli journalists to give a briefing on his new national security concept. A national security concept is no trivial matter. It affects how armies build their forces, how they fight wars, and how they think of core ideas like war and peace. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, the head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, argues that there is a new, unofficial national security concept that has emerged after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent wars. He says that peace is no longer the goal in this new concept, and instead there is openness to unending wars as the best way to guarantee security. Moreover, Jewish superiority is becoming a dominant belief, Hayman warns, in violation of Israel's Declaration of Independence. Hayman also cautions that Israel has no way of replacing its relationship with the US, not with other countries nor through autarky. It makes sense to be more self-sufficient, but Israel doesn't have a "diversification path." Hayman was the IDF's chief of military intelligence before Aharon Haliva, the general in office on October 7. He says that only a commission of inquiry will be able to truly provide answer on what went wrong in the leadup to the attack, and acknowledges that he should appear before the commission as well. He lays out several failures in intelligence during his tenure -- Israel never thought the Palestinians could lead the Iranian axis, it didn't take Hamas's attack plan seriously enough once it gained access to it, and there were 9 pieces of intelligence from October 4 that should have been evaluated in a more comprehensive manner.  On Iran, Hayman doesn't see many paths that don't lead to another military confrontation. "We are in a no-deal, no-strike situation," he says. "The conclusion unfortunately, is you need to do something." Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Israel is doing well on the battlefield since October 7, but has lost significant ground in the information war. Much of that discourse is rooted in legal language -- war crimes, arrest warrants, illegal settlements, charges of genocide. International law and the conversation around international law is a central battlefield for Israel. Natasha Hausdorff is one of Israel's most prominent advocates, especially around questions of international law. Hausdorff is a barrister in London with law degrees from Oxford and Tel Aviv University. She is the legal director of UK Lawyers for Israel Charitable Trust, and is the founder of the Center for International Rule of Law. She argues that there is an ecosystem of international organizations, NGOs, and foreign governments "promoting a particular agenda against Western civilization" and using the phraseology of international law to vilify Israel. Hausdorff says Israel takes measures to protect civilians that go beyond those of any other army in the world. That includes the delivery of leaflets, phone calls to individual householders, evacuation corridors to humanitarian zones, and yes, estimates of collateral damage before strikes. She also argues that the International Committee of the Red Cross does not have a clear mandate to access terrorist combatants in Israeli prisons. Turning to the genocide question, she says the UN Commission of Inquiry that ruled Israel was committing genocide in Gaza was "essentially a copy and paste" of the Amnesty International report, which relied on a Human Rights Watch report. Hausdorff calls it "a cycle of disinformation laundering... Hamas propaganda getting that stamp of UN authority." She also laments Navi Pillay's Nobel Peace Prize, saying she is part of the effort to lower the threshold for genocide in order to find Israel guilty. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Israel and Jews around the world marked three years since the October 7 attacks this week. It was a time to remember the fallen and the survivors. It was also an opportunity to take stock of Israel's conflicts and what Israel should do next. Elizabeth Tsurkov, a PhD student at Princeton and Middle East scholar, says that Israel's approach to Syria and Lebanon needs to be recalibrated. Israel thinks it has a "panacea" in its buffer zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, she argues. But it's not clear how that solves Israel's challenges, and at least in Syria, it is making Israel less safe. She notes that Hezbollah is a badly weakened force and has lost a lot of legitimacy inside Lebanon. But the Joseph Aoun government is not about to risk domestic tension and even civil war by actually trying to disarm Hezbollah. Israel remaining in Lebanon only weakens the Aoun government further, Tsurkov argues. In Syria, she says, decisions are made by a group of five people, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa. They are "deeply, deeply pragmatic," says Tsurkov. They have sacrificed much to reach a position of power, and are not about to throw it away by picking a fight with Israel. However, she warns, Israel is making a major mistake with its buffer zone in Syria. Instead of making the border safer, the IDF presence is antagonizing the locals and will eventually push some toward guerrilla warfare against Israel. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. It was a stormy week politically in Ireland. It wasn't over an attempted terrorist attack like we had here in Israel this week. It wasn't over the rising cost of energy or immigration, like elsewhere in Europe. It was a soccer match against Israel. That was enough to dominate the country's headlines. How did Ireland become so focused on Israel, and so hostile to the Jewish state?  Alan Shatter, a leading Jewish figure in the country and former justice and defense minister, says a pro-Palestine 'cult' has taken over the country's politics. The country has always had a checkered past with its Jews, he said. The Provisional IRA had deep ties with Palestinian terrorists, and their political movement Sinn Fein 'contaminated' Irish politics by putting the Palestinian cause front and center. That obsessive focus has spread from politics across Irish society, Shatter lamented, and now trade unions, teachers, artists, and athletes have significant pro-Palestinian movements. The angst over the soccer match against Israel a new "level of complete and utter absurdity," he said. Now, he said, many Jews are asking whether they have a future in the country in the face of daily abuse online and a toxic environment around Israel. "There's a deep problem here," Shatter said. "It's one the government refuses to recognize. It's one the government is contributing to." Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Benny Gantz was in the headlines in Israel and often across the globe for the better part of two decades. He was the 20th IDF chief of staff during two major operations against Hamas, was opposition leader, served as defense minister, and for the eight months after October 7, was a senior member in the war cabinet. His fortunes have changed, however, His party is polling well below the electoral threshold, and there are no signs that is about to change. Opposition figures are calling for Gantz to drop out, warning he will waste tens of thousands of votes that could prove decisive in replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But Gantz insists he is in the race for the long run. Gantz said that he doesn't owe anything to anyone except his own voters. He acknowledges that he won't be prime minister, but says that he can be the bridge between the camps in a broad Zionist unity government. Everything is possible for Israel with a unity government, he said, while no problem can be addressed without one. Netanyahu, he said, needs to be replaced. October 7 was his responsibility, said Gantz, and Netanyahu has also divided Israeli society. He was fairly optimistic about Israel's operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, saying that Israel cannot allow radical forces to build up capabilities that could be used to attack Israel. Gantz stressed that Israel is not taking revenge in Gaza, but is securing its own future by working to defeat Hamas. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Israel's relationship with the West, especially Europe, took an unhappy turn this week, as UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced that his country would be imposing widespread sanctions on Israel's settlements. France and Canada said they would impose similar penalties, while other European countries called for EU measures against Israeli settlements. The European Leadership Network, or ELNET, works to improve ties between Israel and Europe. Yossi Abravanel, ELNET Israel's deputy director, joined Lazar Focus to explain why countries are announcing sanctions now, and how Israel should respond. According to Abravanel, domestic politics is the main driver of the decision to impose sanctions on Israeli settlements. He said that countries are willing to harm their own interests to appease anti-Israel voters, and that an advisor to the previous British prime minister Keir Starmer told him as much. He said that Israel should not "go too far" in its response to the sanctions. Europe is Israel's largest trade partner, he stressed. Israel must keep lines of communication with European countries open, and stress that Israel is a democracy fighting for shared values. Encouragingly, Abravanel noted that opposition parties in many countries considered hostile to Israel, including in Spain, pledge that they will overturn anti-Israel moves by sitting left-wing governments. He emphasized that Germany, which opposed the sanctions, works to protect Israel in the EU every day, and Israelis should recognize the lengths to which Germany goes for the Jewish state. Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. The US-Israeli war against Iran was initially about military capabilities -- Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, its armed proxies -- but very quickly became a war about energy. It was Iran's ability to choke global energy supplies that forced US President Donald Trump to effectively stop the war. We also saw how central the flow of natural gas has been to the Ukraine war, as European countries scrambled to replace Russian gas to heat their homes and power their economies. These complex challenges take place as the world tries to come up with a coherent climate policy, something it has struggled to do for decades. Danish political scientist Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, is one of the world's most original thinkers on these issues. "Energy is prosperity," he stressed. Affordable, available energy has led to humanity's flourishing over the past two decades. Prosperity means you get less sick, you live longer, there is less child mortality, education is better, and you have more personal opportunities. Global warming, he said, is a problem and will have mostly negative impacts. But we must ask ourselves whether we are pushing solutions that will end up doing more harm than the problem we are trying to solve. The conversation, he stressed, must be based on what the UN climate panel actually says. It does not predict the demise of the human race. It does say it can cost 2-3% of global GDP by 2100, meaning it is a problem that needs addressing. But if your solution brings down GDP by 15%, then that is not the correct solution. Climate innovation is the key, which is a low-cost way of getting green energy to be cheaper than fossil fuels. For the foreseeable future, however, we are going to keep relying on fossil fuels. If current trends from 1971 remain the same, we are on track to get off fossil fuels in 1,000 years. The point of public policy, he stressed, "is to leave the world better off in the future. Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. On the three major fronts with which Israel is contending, there has been some progress on the diplomatic front -- with the caveat that not everyone believes that is a good thing. Lazar and Gabriella Jacobs look at the latest in each of the three theaters -- Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. On Monday, President Donald Trump -- having called off a major joint strike with Israel -- said the US and Iran were in the midst of talks that could see the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened. Lazar argued that because of the November midterms and pressure from Gulf allies, Trump clearly doesn't want to go back to war, and Iran knows it. Tehran is not afraid of another major US campaign, and continues to raise its demands. The diplomatic process in Lebanon is more promising. Israel and Lebanon met in Rome for the seventh round of direct talks this week. Though Lebanon wants Israel to pull its troops back more quickly, the US is not about to pressure Israel to do so. Despite a bloody week in southern Lebanon in which two Israeli soldiers were killed, as well as several Lebanese, the two sides still met. At the same time, Lazar said, this process isn't about to disarm Hezbollah across the country. Major changes will need to take place within Lebanon for Hezbollah to decide that it has failed in its four-decade-long quest to destroy Israel through violence. The Trump Administration and Board of Peace are claiming progress in Gaza, as they convince Hamas to sign on to a new disarmament roadmap. Israel has not ratified it, and insists it will continue to confront active threats. Indeed, Israeli strikes early in the week clearly frustrated mediators. Still, Lazar noted, officials tell him that noticeable restraint from the IDF is helpful, and there is cautious optimism coming from the Board of Peace. Gabriella asked if the three diplomatic processes are linked. Lazar explained that Iran has been trying to unify the fronts against Israel, and situate itself as the arbiter of what happens in Lebanon, and maybe someday, in Gaza. Israel has successfully de-linked the fronts, while stressing that if the Islamic Republic falls, Hezbollah and Hamas are likely to follow. Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and Yitzchak Ledee and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. This week, we want to take a broad look at the direction of US foreign policy. How does domestic politics affect America's ability to wage war? Is a moderate bump in gas prices enough to keep US President Donald Trump from achieving his goals against Iran? What changes after the midterms? We also want to examine the nose-dive in support for Israel among Democrats, and the rise in antisemitism on the right wing of the Republican Party. Prof. Victor Davis Hanson is one of the most prolific and well-known American historians. Trained as a classicist, he has written extensively on ancient and modern warfare. He also has unique insights into the currents driving US politics. Hanson said that midterm elections often warp foreign policy. The incumbent party almost always loses, and with the Republicans holding a thin lead in the House of Representatives, they are in serious danger of losing the House. If that happens, said Hanson, Trump will face two years of impeachment hearings. In addition, said Hanson, Americans are willing to support military action, but run out of patience quickly. "They don't mind the violence," he said. "They don't mind, to be frank, how many people you kill. They don't want to lose any Americans, but they want it short, and out of the Middle East especially." Hanson pointed out that Democratic Socialists have only won a few elections in deep blue states thus far, and they are not the inevitable future of the Democratic Party. Both parties have had fringe outliers that damage their chances, only to have course corrections in subsequent cycles. What is unique about the Democratic Socialists phenomenon, he says, is that it is combined with an Islamist element: "What unites them is they hate Western civilization. They hate capitalism, even though they do quite well by it. They hate Israel. And I'll be candid. I think they hate Jews as well." He argued that on the right, the Republican Party and broader conservative movement are pushing back on their antisemitic fringe. Vance, said Hanson, is "brilliant." He sees that Marco Rubio's star is rising and is trying to find a way to position himself as the party's frontrunner. Vance's way to do so, said Hanson, is to appeal to the disaffected working-class whites he grew up around. On Iran, Hanson stressed that the people leading the regime are fanatics. What the US should do is create a transitional government in exile in a nearby Arab country and send frozen regime funds to that body. "Sow the seeds of dissension and let it work like that," Hanson urged. "But I don't think we need to talk to them anymore. It's completely futile." Overall, he said Israel is in a strong position diplomatically and militarily, while Iran is weaker than many realize. Russia and China are also slipping economically and demographically, while the US is squeezing them out of places like South America. Hanson argued that prioritizing the Palestinian cause is a "Western elite fetish in Europe and the United States." Finally, with one of the world's leading classics scholars on the show, how could we not discuss Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey? Hanson called it "a spectacularly produced film, special effects, and he encouraged people to take an interest in Homer. But "it's really not Homer's Odyssey. I would call it a diverse, equitable and inclusive Odyssey, a DEI Odyssey." Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. Even for Israeli standards, it's been a pretty wild week in Israel's neighborhood. The ceasefire war between the US and Iran continues to escalate. The threats from US President Donald Trump against Iran grow ever more bombastic, but there is a real feeling that he might carry out a significant attack soon that goes well beyond the limited strikes that we have seen over the past two weeks. Of course, Iran is hitting back, primarily at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, saying it is targeting US bases in those countries. The Iran-backed Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers, as that conflict begins to heat up. Houthi threats to the Bab al-Mandeb would mean the Iranian axis is closing the two waterways connecting the Middle East and Europe to Asian markets. There was slightly better news to the north. After six rounds of direct talks and an agreement that envisions peace between Israel and Lebanon, Lebanese forces began moving into the first pilot zone vacated by Israeli forces. Joined by Times of Israel colleague Nava Freiberg, Lazar made sense of the interconnected but distinct theaters that Israeli leaders and citizens are paying close attention to. He explained what Iran is trying to do with its attack on Arab countries. It is determined to impose its reading of the MOU on the world, especially as it comes to control over the Strait of Hormuz. That is why it hasn't hit Israel. Iran knows that Israel, Lazar said, isn't about to run to Trump and ask him to give in to Iran's demands to get it stop firing. Instead, Israel would relish the opportunity to carry out some of the attacks that it had to call off in April, and would likely go well beyond what the Americans are doing. It doesn't make sense for Israel to go out of its way to get involved either. For now, Iran is being degraded, it isn't getting economic relief, and Trump is becoming increasingly frustrated with his Iranian interlocutors.  Meanwhile, life is fairly normal in Israel, with flights returning to Ben Gurion Airport and citizens focusing on the election fight. Lazar also shed light on alternative energy pathways being developed in the wake of Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Israel might have an opportunity to be key element of some of these plans, but it has to change the tenor of relations with some of its Arab partners. Lazar explained why the Saudi-US nuclear deal is a problem for Israel. First of Israel, it shows that Israel is not being consulted by the White House on strategic decisions. In addition, it represents a potential proliferation risk, especially if the current regime in Riyadh is replaced. Turning to Lebanon, Lazar said that progress on the first pilot zone is undoubtedly a positive step. Still, the Lebanese army is incapable of taking on Hezbollah at this stage, and a lot will have to happen before disarming Hezbollah is a likely outcome. It will be important to help the Lebanese government show the public that negotiations with Israel achieve results, especially the return of some civilians to their homes. Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. The ceasefire war between the US and Iran continues to expand. Instead of making do with a wildly favorable memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump, Iranian leaders want more -- especially recognition of their control over the vital Strait of Hormuz. Nicholas Carl, assistant director for the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, said that the current fighting should be understood as the next stage in the US-Iran war -- namely, the Battle of Hormuz. Carl noted that the US and Israel achieved extensive military success in their campaign against Iran's ballistic missiles, nuclear program, conventional forces, defense industry, and leadership. But that military success has not been translated into enduring strategic success. "We haven't compelled the Iranians to accept a positive political outcome for us yet," said Carl. "They're still willing to fight." The Iranians came dangerously close to imposing their will on Trump, and winning the war, he argued, as the president halted the campaign and signed an MOU that came under withering criticism even from his allies. Iran is now trying to make its victory permanent, said Carl, and is working to press its advantage and end the war with its maximalist demands met. Iran is seeking to destabilize energy markets sufficiently to convince Trump that ongoing war is too costly, both economically as well as politically, and that he should accept a permanent agreement that is even more advantageous to Iran. If the war ends with Iran receiving significant financial relief and in formal control of Hormuz, he said, it will have won the war. That would certainly contribute to regime stability, but it is impossible to predict how long it will last. Something must give, argued Carl -- either the regime or the people. The regime might fall under ongoing cycles of mass protest. But it could also become even more repressive, turning into a Middle Eastern North Korea. Alternatively, it might fracture into ethnic enclaves, much like Syria. Carl said the reported Mossad plan to install former Iranian president Ahmadinejad as the leader of a new Iran is a bit far-fetched in terms of its chances for success. On the US-Israel partnership, there are certainly new forces in American politics challenging the relationship, but both countries must recognize that they're stronger together against actors like Iran. In the meantime, he said, the war between the US and Iran "is going to keep on going until one side has outlasted the other." Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe. A few short weeks ago, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran that was widely panned, especially in Israel. The bizarre agreement met none of the US or Israel war aims, extracted no concessions from Iran, and even gave it effective control over the fighting in Lebanon. Predictably, the MOU hasn't led to anything like peace. This week, Iran launched attacks on civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to US strikes, followed by Iran launching drones and rockets at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Is the Trump MOU dead? If it's not, how should Israel ensure that its goals are met, even if returning to war in the short term is not possible? And what does this mean for Israel's fight against Iranian proxies on its borders? Dr. Eyal Hulata, a veteran of Israel's security services, served as National Security Adviser in the previous government under Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. As the figure who led Israel's inter-agency effort to confront the Iranian threat, Hulata is uniquely positioned to discuss Israel's long fight against the Islamic Republic. He said that Israelis should be proud of the effectiveness and accomplishments of the two air campaigns against Iran, which pushed back the Iranian nuclear program significantly. However, said Hulata, as long as the regime controls Iran, it will be almost impossible to solve the Iranian problem. Even though the US and Iran failed to topple the regime, Hulata stressed that the country is being led by new figures, and it is too early to say whether they will be more hardline than their predecessors. Regardless of the disappointing way the campaign ended, Hulata noted, what is important now is to look toward the next phase of the struggle against the Iranian threat. Iran's military and defense industry were badly degraded, but those achievements will be temporary if they are not followed up by ongoing pressure, sanctions, and intelligence operations. Israeli intelligence must remain intensely focused on Iran's nuclear sites, he said, in order to detect any attempts to return to nuclear enrichment. Israel will have to respond to such a development, Hulata emphasized. Ballistic missiles will continue to not only be a threat to Israel, but also to Iran's Arab neighbors. Israel must ensure that Iran's missile stockpile doesn't become too large for Israeli multi-layered air defenses, said Hulata. Any deal reached between Trump and Iran, even if that is unlikely, must not give Iran anything they don't have right now, said Hulata. Iran has not been able to enrich uranium for over a year, he noted, and should not be given permission to do so in an agreement. However, Iran will not make any concessions unless they are pressured into doing so, Hulata emphasized. "We shouldn't buy into this narrative that they have won in this military conflict," said Hulata. "They've suffered unprecedented amounts of of of damage, direct losses and indirect losses. The only way that they can recover from this is through the waivers that an American president will give them in exchange for a negotiated agreement." "This is why it is important that this negotiated agreement demands substantial outcomes," he continued. "Otherwise will be just kicking the can down the road and this will not be good in the long term." Turning to Lebanon, Hulata said the agreement signed with Beirut is the right approach, though Israel should not give anything up that compromises its security. The Lebanese government understands the Hezbollah threat, he said, but lacks capacity. In order for it to succeed, Beirut needs to commit to pushing back militarily against Hezbollah, with the firm backing of international partners. At the same time, Iran's financial support for Hezbollah must be cut off. On Syria, Hulata said that while Ahmed al-Sharaa is a jihadist, he shares the Israeli interest in reducing Iran's influence in Syria. At the same time, Turkish influence there is a serious problem, and Israel needs to keep a close eye on a growing threat from Ankara. Hulata said that while Israel could have done much more to break Hamas rule in Gaza, its best move now is to stick with Trump's 20-point plan, while bringing in partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. "Hamas is way weaker than it was before," Hulata said. "Hamas is disconnected from external lifelines of support. There is an ability to have a civilian rule in Gaza that would take power from Hamas and push it away." That would take creating safe civilian areas in the Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza in order to create new conditions in Gaza. Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.