Advertise on podcast: Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

SHOCK! That's the word that came to mind for our guest this week, Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman, about the Reserve Bank's recent decision. We discuss the implications, and the historic nature of such a move. We love to talk about the exchange rate and interest rates. For a Treasurer, movements in these rates can make a massive difference in ensuring the bank's finances remain ship-shape. We discuss how the volatile environment we're living through affects Kiwibank. Hot competition in the New Zealand lending market, environmental challenges, and opportunities from AI are all front of mind for Belinda. Alongside just about everything else which can impact the bank… Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Headline inflation eased back over the September quarter, but still remains high at 3.7%. But that's ancient history now. With petrol prices through the roof this quarter, we're more worried about what lies ahead. Domestic price rises continued to ease, while lower oil prices in July and August softened imported prices too. We love to sing the praises of a cheap Kiwi dollar, but while it benefits our exporters and tourism operators, it doesn't help with inflation. Measures of core inflation are mixed. While inflation excluding the transport group is sitting at a moderate 2.7%, other core measures are a bit too high for comfort. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our friends across the Tasman are feeling the pinch of a year's worth of interest rate hikes. But that's not stopping them from popping by for a visit. The oil price is popping off, and shipping costs are popping too. A double whammy we don't need. It's hitting the most vulnerable Kiwi households hardest. The US interest rate expectations are tame given a slight upside surprise to their latest inflation data. But it seems it's all just about timing. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It's been a tough year, and petrol prices are squeezing Kiwi households once again. Forced to make trade-offs, the hardest struck are those who are already struggling. The housing market is still falling slowly from grace. But the current downward trend is slow, not the strong correction we saw post-covid. A golden opportunity for first home buyers. What can we expect then from inflation and the rest of the year? Imported inflation will rise once again, but our exporters and tourist operators will still be winners based on current trends. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It's optimism galore this week! Kiwi businesses are gritting their teeth and getting on with it. They're looking through a soft September quarter with buckets of optimism about the future. We like it.The Government looks to be in a better financial position than was previously expected. While this may have been because of higher prices boosting its tax take, it bodes well for the fiscal outlook from here.Bond yields around the world are marching on up. US bond yields have reached levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We demystify what's happening with the Kiwi dollar, with a bit of help. We're joined by Hamish Wilkinson (Wilkie) and Adrian Lodge (Lodgey), who are two recurring guests on the podcast and both Senior Dealers in the Kiwibank Financial Markets Team. Between them, Adrian and Hamish have over 40 years of currency moves' wisdom to share. Global interest rates are rising, and New Zealand is a small cork in a big ocean. We discuss how US and Australian central bank policy influences the Kiwi dollar. The economic outlook is highly dependent on how well our importers and exporters can balance their books. A weak Kiwi currency is good news for tourism, but bad news for importers and for the fuel price. We mention our latest FX Tactical, and Hamish and Adrian helped us write it. Read all our insights and theirs here. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The New Zealand economy squeezed out 0.2% growth over the June quarter. Not a massive number, but it's good to see it being positive at all! Construction was a key driver of growth. Consumer spending took a hit in light of high petrol prices, a slow housing market and a weak labour market. While the economy has proven resilient, we still caution against more interest rate hikes. Is the grass greener in New Zealand after all? July's tourism numbers suggest yes! July officially marks the first time that 2019 tourism arrivals has been exceeded, and we're excited for the bumper summer season ahead. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.   Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Approximately 40% of Kiwi aren’t contributing to Kiwisaver (30% when you exclude those under 18 and those retired). We dive into what could improve Kiwisaver investment with Greg Smith, Investment Specialist at Generate. We delve into the age-old debate between passive vs active investing. We also tackle AI investment and how fear and uncertainty can drive the (terrible) decision to stop investing all together. When it comes to the future, we like making big calls. Greg calls what he sees in the economy a “green tinge”, the pre-curser for actual “green shoots”. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Reserve Bank delivered a 25-basis point hike, taking the interest rate to 2.75%, as expected. But we are happy that they are looking at the future through a more dovish lens.  Export-supported regions and sectors have performed well. Consumer spending on the other hand, not so much. A strengthening of the economic recovery is important, but we're still waiting for it to broaden, too. A soft labour market is key to this RBNZ decision, and for the next two meetings coming up this year. Unemployment data looks grim. And over one in six young people in the labour force were unemployed in the June quarter. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The days of getting a university degree and automatically landing a good job are over. So what should we be doing about it? We are joined by AUT Senior Lecturer, Educator and Economist Lloyd Gutteridge, to discuss the plight of young Kiwi students and the job market they are landing in.   Kiwi innovation is alive and well. One solution to New Zealand's economic woes could be the resurgence of innovative social enterprises, especially in the regions. The biggest threat to young people now is a loss of curiosity and drive. This places educators under the spotlight as they help students navigate the age of AI.   When we talk about scarce resources, in the age of information we have to talk about attention. And as the proportion of neurodiverse kids increases, teaching has to adapt. Could a move back to pen and paper be part of the answer? Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we're joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit to talk about a range of topics concerning the Kiwi economy. David's finger is on the pulse when it comes to NZ businesses. He reveals why he's cautiously optimistic about 2027, and what the catalyst will be for his cautious optimism to turn into pure optimism. House prices are sharply down from their peak. We explore what this means for Kiwi households, the regions and the economy as a whole. Kiwi businesses have done it tough these past few years. We delve into topics such as margin squeeze and liquidations to uncover what's really happening under the hood of the New Zealand economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation expectations have deflated like a balloon. But that doesn't burst our bubble. In fact, we are stoked to see the numbers going in the right direction. The Reserve Bank will be too. It won't affect their current path to 3% interest rates, but a hold in 2027 is looking more likely. We'd love if the Reserve Bank took a holiday next year, just like the international travellers turning out in droves again. This last year to June had the highest number of tourists arriving since 2019. Positive manufacturing index numbers for July make it a trifecta of good news. New Zealand's manufacturing index is above the long-run average. As long as we have a weak Kiwi dollar, that strength is likely to continue. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We have a labour market round-up this week. The unemployment rate was 5.6% for the June quarter. This lags behind the rest of the economy, so it's a reflection of where we were 6-9 months ago. That's before the strength we saw in January and February (and before the oil crisis). Youth are the shock absorbers that take the impact when the economy hits a bump. With a 17.2% unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24, compared to 3.5% for those aged 35 to 44. Youth unemployment has always been elevated relative to older groups, but the current level is among the highest seen in 14 years. Overall, the picture feels bleak. Wages are not keeping up with prices (2% wage growth vs 4.1% inflation) and households are going backwards. But not all of NZ is feeling it the same way. Unemployment was 6% for the North Island compared to only 3.7% in the South Island. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We take a look at an international central bank roundup. Three banks held their rates steady last week, more concerned about growth and demand destruction than inflation pressures. We agree, we'd like to see the same here. Back home we dive into confidence data. Although the oil crisis has given both households and businesses a headache, things appear to be recovering. Albeit slowly. We talk about some beefy topics most weeks... none more so than Kiwi beef exports and the surge in demand from the US. Just in time to save us from a drop-off in demand from China. Talk about good luck! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The latest inflation data revealed some big, scary numbers. Inflation is running at 4.1%, the highest since 2023. Electricity, meat, and of course fuel prices were up sharply. However, domestic inflation finally eased, and the core measures of inflation that strip away volatile energy and food prices are a lot less frightening. Kiwi households continue to uphold good savings habits. Although the ever soaring cost of living continues to be the biggest barrier to household savings. Geopolitical uncertainty rages on and oil prices bounce around. Renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is driving business and consumer uncertainty here in Aotearoa. One thing is certain, though, and that's Jarrod's plans to convert his home into a cattle farm. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.   Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.