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Let’s talk energy and revisit the promise and peril of investing in Venezuela. Venezuela holds the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world and was once a top global producer, but years of mismanagement left its oil and gas industry in disarray. Now, renewed international interest following geopolitical and regulatory changes has operators, service companies, and investors re-engaging at a pace not seen in years. Production is already climbing past 1.2 million barrels per day, but the real story isn't new drilling – it's fixing what's already there. From reactivating idle rigs to untangling the commercial frameworks that could finally unlock the country's massive Orinoco Belt and offshore gas resources, this episode maps out exactly what a credible path back to relevance looks like, and how fast it could realistically happen. In this episode, we'll look at: ·       How much oil could Venezuela realistically produce in the next few years, and is a widely cited target like 1.5 million barrels per day conservative, or genuinely ambitious given the country's track record? ·       Why might the single most valuable investment dollar in Venezuela right now go toward unglamorous fixes – compressors, workovers, pump replacements – rather than drilling new wells in the Orinoco Belt? ·       What specific commercial and regulatory protections do international investors need in place before committing billions of dollars to multi-decade Venezuelan oil and gas projects? Related Analysis: ·       Loran vital to gas and LNG future for Shell, Trinidad & Tobago and Venezuela (clients only) ·       Venezuela's upstream revival: Turning policy momentum into production growth (available to non-clients) ·       Venezuela upstream reopening broadens as new operators enter the market (clients only) ·       Venezuela’s oil sector comeback accelerated by majors and newcomers (available to non-clients) ·       Venezuela’s upstream revival hinges on closing the ambition-to-execution gap (clients only) ·       Can Venezuela replicate Canada’s oil sands success? (clients only) Related Episodes: ·       What’s next for Venezuela? Oil production, global markets and foreign investment, with Jorge León ·       A glimpse into energy in 2026, with Jarand Rystad ·       Non-OPEC+ oil growth finds its engine in South America, with Radhika Bansal Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on: LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X

Let's talk energy and get an inside look at the ambitious plans by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to expand its natural gas business in the Americas. XRG, Adnoc’s foreign investment arm, has been taking stakes in high-profile gas developments globally as it seeks to create a global gas portfolio, Bill Lambert, Senior Director for Business Development in the Americas at XRG explains, including stakes in upstream assets and LNG liquefaction projects. Recently, the company has set its sights on the Americas, where it is seeking to build a flexible portfolio that includes assets in Argentina, Venezuela and the US, with goals for further growth. Lambert discusses how XRG’s long-term investment horizon shapes its acquisition strategy and what an ideal gas portfolio in the Americas might look like five years down the road. Related Analysis: Argentina LNG gathers pace with Eni and XRG upstream entry – Client Portal Mideast war puts Vaca Muerta's million-barrel promise in the spotlight Absheron FID expands XRG's Caspian stake, but top-five gas goal rides on LNG – Client Portal Venezuela’s oil sector comeback accelerated by majors and newcomers US shale E&Ps test buyer interest as elevated prices spur next M&A growth phase – Client Portal Related Episodes: Why the Permian Basin won't replace lost Middle East oil Cheap no more: How rising demand is reshaping US natural gas The next US shale hotspot: Western Haynesville, with Matthew Bernstein Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on: LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X

Let’s Talk Energy and get an inside look at how US power producers are responding to surging electricity demand. US power demand had been growing slowly for the last few decades but now electrification, re-industrialization and large-load data centers is pushing demand growth up dramatically, straining markets, the grid and the pocket books of consumers and putting producers at the center of some of the hottest issues in this year’s mid-term election. CORRECTION: At 9:20 minutes - NRG estimates that its Bring Your Own Power (BYOP) activity will result in $500 million in annual earnings by 2029. Related Analysis: Data Center Report – 2026 (clients only) Data centers and electrification test the limits of power delivery (available to non-clients) PJM needs 8.4 GW of accredited UCAP in next auction to shore up reliability (clients only) The big chill and the bigger bill: ERCOT hits historical power price spreads (clients only) Gas Turbine Report H2 2026 (available to non-clients) Related Episodes: How data centers and natural disasters are pushing the grid to its limits How AI is reshaping the way we build, run and secure the grid Will power-hungry data centers overwhelm the grid? Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on: LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X

Let’s Talk Energy and look at the growing stresses to power grids from the growing amount and severity of extreme weather and wildfires alongside rapidly rising demand from data centers.  Keeping the lights on during natural disasters has never been more important as lifesaving services – and life in general- require more power and computing capacity than ever before. And that task is getting more difficult. From 2018 to 2024, the number of major outage events each year - power cuts affecting 30,000 customers or 15% of customers in a specific US county - increased by about 40% to more than 6,500 annually, according to a March study from the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the average duration of these outages rose 23% to just under 12 hours. Now grids are being asked to add a massive wave of new data centers. Globally, data center power demand grew 50% from 2023 to 2025 and is expected to almost double to just under 250 GW by 2030, according to Rystad Energy forecasts, putting unprecedented strain on the power system. ·      Can grids cope with the simultaneous stresses of increasing natural disasters and rapid demand growth from data centers? ·      How should big tech, utilities and regulators manage data center demand as well as supply from onsite generation during these types of events? ·      What is the outlook for improving the way grids function during weather-related stress, perhaps even leveraging the same AI that is adding to the stress in the first place? Related Analysis: Europe, US and India make up 60% of global grid investments next decade (clients only) Data Center Report – 2026 (clients only) How AI is reshaping the way we build, run and secure the grid, with Microsoft's Per Christian Honningsvaag: Let's Talk Energy Q&A (available to non-clients) Data centers and electrification test the limits of power delivery (available to non-clients) China's data center capacity set to top 60 GW by 2030, driving a doubling of power demand (available to non-clients)

Let’s Talk Energy and kick off our first episode back from our summer break with a look at the Permian Basin. The production trajectory in the Permian has been one of the single most important variables to understanding global oil supply – if not the entire oil industry – for much of the past decade.  Permian production more than tripled since the start of the US tight oil revolution around 2014 and now sits above 6.6 million barrels of oil per day -almost half of US oil output – and well over 25 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. In the process, hundreds of companies sprang up, rapidly drilled, merged, drilled a bit slower and merged again as they sought to win over investors whose demands shifted from rapid growth to cash returns. But the days of jaw-dropping production gains are over, and companies aren’t inclined to ramp up activity to fill the hole in global supply left by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, we’ll look at: How much affordable oil is left in the Permian and how long might operators be able to keep up current rates of production? Which companies control the highest number of choice locations, and do they have enough to earn the confidence of investors keen to know if their cash returns are sustainable? And what are the implications of the rising volumes of natural gas that are trading at much higher prices than they did in the past? Related Analysis: Permian Deep Dive Report (clients only) The price of passage: How Hormuz recovery determines Brent’s future (clients only) ExxonMobil’s Permian efficiency gains pay off with bumper quarter (clients only) Sustained oil price signal needed to trigger shale supply response (clients only) E&Ps pay premium for contiguous Delaware NM acreage in lease sale (clients only) US shale braces for next consolidation wave as smaller players seek scale (available to non-clients) Related Episodes: How data center growth is slowing the US shale comeback How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance Cheap no more: How rising demand is reshaping US natural gas The next US shale hotspot: Western Haynesville, with Matthew Bernstein Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on: LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X

We're on summer break and back with new episodes in late August 2026. That’s a wrap on the first half of 2026 and our 44th episode. Over the past 10 months, Let’s Talk Energy has surpassed 1 million views on YouTube, tallied more than 70,000 hours of watch time and totaled over 25,000 downloads across Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Thank you for spending your time with us  We’re taking a summer break from early July to recharge. While we’re away, the full archive is there for the road trip, the beach or the river float.  We’ll return in late August with new episodes dropping every two to four weeks while our regular producers are on family leave. We’ll be back to our regular weekly schedule in 2027.  We’ve got a strong lineup taking shape for the fall, including some high-profile guests from major energy producers, supply chain giants and, of course, Rystad’s own expert voices. We’ll also have another dispatch from the sidelines of the Rystad Energy EMEA Summit in London in October.  Got a question or a topic you’d like us to tackle when we’re back? Email us at [email protected].  Have a great summer and see you again in late August!  Related Episodes:  A few recent episodes worth catching up on while we’re away:  How AI is reshaping the way we build, run and secure the grid, with Microsoft's Per Christian Honningsvaag  How a decade of underinvestment is reshaping the global hunt for oil, with APA Corporation’s Tracey Henderson  Why the world's cheapest oil is now its riskiest investment, with Olga Savenkova and Schreiner Parker  How data center growth is slowing the US shale comeback, with Ryan Hassler and Roe Patterson    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on:  LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X

[Summer break] Let's Talk Energy will return with new episodes in late August 2026. Let’s Talk Energy and try to understand how AI might be used to future proof the grid and what bumps we could encounter along the way. Regulators and utilities worldwide are sounding the alarm about the impact of data centers on the stability of the electricity grid. But the same compute that is straining our power system can also improve efficiency and access diverse sources of power more easily. That efficiency, however, could result in more complex and critical decisions relying on AI, rather than on human judgment, potentially inviting questions about safety and cybersecurity. Can AI alleviate the need for more physical grid infrastructure and defray some of the expense needed to make the system fit for the future? How can a growing role for AI in grid management improve reliability, and how should we think about the threats from digital hiccups or malicious cyberattacks on our critical infrastructure? And how is Microsoft looking at the potential for its own data centers to at least support – if not enhance – the way grids function today? Related Analysis:  Rystad Energy launches Spektra: the next-generation market intelligence platform, shaped by the clients who use it (available to non-clients)  Fuel cell investment by data centers set to grow tenfold, reaching $30 billion by 2030 (available to non-clients)  Powering the AI era: A special report from Reuters Insights and Rystad Energy (available to non-clients)  Grid Equipment Report - First Edition (clients only)  As gas turbine orders surge 75%, new market entrants eye growing AI demand (clients only)  Fuel cell investment by data centers set to grow tenfold, reaching $30 billion by 2030 (available to non-clients)  Data centers offer chance to boost green power consumption in China (clients only)  China's data center capacity set to top 60 GW by 2030, driving a doubling of power demand (available to non-clients)  Related Episodes:  The AI arms race has a critical minerals problem, with Michael Walshe and Jeff Dickerson  Will power-hungry data centers overwhelm the grid?  Shell’s Peter Wood on AI, future energy scenarios and trade turning points.  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Let’s Talk Energy and look at the growing resurgence in oil and gas exploration. Starting in the 20-teens, many oil companies began cutting exploration budgets and letting go or reassigning the people behind that work. The shift was driven by efficiency gains and the rise of vast US shale fields, but also pressure from investors and the uncertainty over the long-term demand for oil. Now, however, oil demand is expected to remain resilient, shale fields are showing their limits and investors are asking companies whether they are finding enough barrels to maintain their cash returns, exploration is back in vogue. But rebuilding an exploration portfolio doesn’t happen overnight and the industry as a whole is finding less oil and making fewer large discoveries than it used to each year.    How has the exploration business evolved over Tracey’s career and what defines a successful wildcat today?  How is APA Corporation, which kept exploring when others did not, looking at its prospects in places as diverse as Suriname, Uruguay, Egypt, and the Permian?  Can new technology and new ideas help the industry break out of its discovery drought?  Related Analysis:  Global Discoveries Report – June 2026 (clients only)  BP's UK exit looks credible as exploration strategy takes shape (available to non-clients)  Technical evaluation agreements are reshaping global exploration entry (clients only)  Newfoundland's new bid round hinges on policy reform to attract new explorers (available to non-clients)  Discovered volumes in 1Q26 sinks to lowest first-quarter level in two decades (clients only)  High-impact wells: Africa will continue to drive global drilling activity in 2026 (available to non-clients)  South America’s next frontier: Wells that could reshape the Atlantic Margin (clients only)  Related Episodes:  Non-OPEC+ oil growth finds its engine in South America, with Radhika Bansal  The next US shale hotspot: Western Haynesville, with Matthew Bernstein  The looming oil supply challenge with Artem Abramov  How Malaysia is looking to seize its upstream opportunity    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4vj3TTe Let’s Talk Energy and examine how, despite being an intensely competitive business, oil and gas is also a team sport. Companies frequently partner with others to gain access to new resources, spread risk and add specialized expertise.   For years, there was a standard playbook for how different types of companies – big Western supermajors or giant national oil companies and everyone in between – would think about who they would partner with, where they would do it and why.   Now that playbook is changing, driven by trends as diverse as rising geopolitical competition, more resilient oil and gas demand, increasing capabilities among national oil companies and demands from public investors that public players turn a tidy profit, even in tough times.   How are the needs and abilities of national oil companies and Western players changing as they evolve?  Is the war in the Middle East shifting the calculus of the region’s national oil companies when it comes to bringing in outside investors or its attractiveness to international players?   Finally, what does this mean for how companies think about pairing up to secure not just the reserves they need but also the ability to produce them?  Related Analysis  TotalEnergies overcomes Middle East disruption, looks to Namibia (clients only)  Mideast war puts Vaca Muerta's million-barrel promise in the spotlight (available to non-clients)  Special Report: The Majors' Portfolio Investments (clients only)  Kazakhstan expands exploration push with 30-plot auction as international interest grows (available to non-clients)  Hormuz outage hits production but soaring prices support company cashflows (clients only)  One NOC grew 70%. Another lost 17%. What separates the winners from the rest? (available to non-clients)  Majors’ LNG growth aspirations hang in the balance as Hormuz crisis deepens (clients only)    Related Episodes  How Malaysia is looking to seize its upstream opportunity  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey  Non-OPEC+ oil growth finds its engine in South America, with Radhika Bansal  How oil majors are appealing to investors with Olga Savenkova    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Let’s Talk Energy and dig into the companies that are drilling, fracking and producing oil and gas in the US shale plays. Oil and gas companies working onshore US are cautiously increasing activity to bring on more production, incentivized by the currently high prices for oil. While the price outlook remains highly fluid, the continued conflict in the Middle East and the need to refill the resulting 1-billion-barrel deficit in global storage levels is giving CEO’s confidence to marginally increase production. But, as many listeners know, oil companies don’t drill wells, hook them into pipelines, or do many of the other things that are needed to get oil and gas flowing out of the ground – they pay oilfield service companies to do that work.   How much more equipment is needed in the market to meet projected demand from US shale players?   What are the pinch points that could limit the ability of oilfield service companies or make it more expensive for operators to ramp up production?   How have changes in the sector, including past consolidation and ongoing diversification into work outside the oil and gas industry, on things like data centers, changed dynamics in the market?   Related Analysis:   House View Report (available to non-clients)  Iron Oak buys Signal Peak to become top frac sand supplier in Eagle Ford (clients only)  Putting things in perspective: Data center investments now on par with renewables, oil and gas (available to non-clients)  Service Price Inflation Report: Shale – 2Q 2026 (clients only)  How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance: Let's Talk Energy Q&A (available to non-clients)  Prolonged Middle East tensions could drive Lower 48 D&C pricing up 20-30% (clients only)  Related Episodes:  How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance  Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons  How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy?  Cheap no more: How rising demand is reshaping US natural gas  The next US shale hotspot: Western Haynesville, with Matthew Bernstein  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/3SfZuBC   Let’s Talk Energy and assess the possible long-term impacts of the war in the Middle East. The conflict has brought the geopolitics of energy and near-term market disruptions into sharp focus, as the world struggles with higher oil and natural gas prices and tighter supplies overall.   But underlying fundamentals, which pointed to growing oversupply in both oil and, to a lesser extent, gas markets, persist despite war-driven distortions.   And while no one can predict how long it could take for the US and Iran to reach an agreement to resolve the war, the two sides continue to negotiate and – at times – say they are making progress.  How long could the war-driven shortages and price inflation that we see today persist after the US and Iran reach some sort of agreement to end the conflict and fully re-open the Strait of Hormuz?  What changes to energy trade flows or policies could be more lasting and what shifts might be less durable as countries and markets digest this shock and steel themselves against future ones?  Which factors will be most important to watch to determine how the world ultimately recovers from a massive shock to the energy system?    Related Analysis  House View Report – Third Edition (clients only)   House View Report (available to non-clients)  Qatar and UAE LNG outlook shifts with new House View scenarios (clients only)  Middle East crisis delays but won't derail the renewable transition (available to non-clients)  Navigator: A busy China (clients only)    Related Episodes   Energy insecurity is changing the case for renewables Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets  Jet fuel markets and the Middle East war  Why Iranian oil could be the biggest energy story of the decade    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/3PEAT8X  Let’s Talk Energy and looks at the implications of the Middle East war on the region’s oil and gas industries. The disruptions from the war are being felt across the globe daily, but the longer-term impacts on the region could be even more significant. The disruptions from the war in the Middle East are being felt across the globe daily, but the longer-term impacts on the most important oil and gas-producing region in the world could be even more significant. In the near-term, countries will work to repair damaged infrastructure and restart delayed projects, while pushing ahead with plans to expand capacity. Looking ahead, upstream dynamics in the region have already changed following the departure of the UAE from OPEC and further shifts are likely as countries navigate a complex economic and geopolitical climate.   Has the war between the US and Iran changed the outlook for the upstream industry in the Middle East, and how long could it take to bring back shut production?  How are countries around the Gulf pursuing options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and just how much oil and gas could find alternative ways to market?  Will this experience change the way international and national oil companies from outside the region look at investment there as they seek to replenish their own dwindling reserves?    Related Analysis  Gulf war leaves $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment crunch (available to non-clients)  UAE’s first post-OPEC move – Double the Hormuz bypass by 2027 (clients only)  Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (available to non-clients)  Iraq lands surprise Qurnain frontier oil prize amid Middle East shut-ins (clients only)  Western majors’ Middle East portfolios take hit from Gulf crisis (clients only)  Friction to fracture: UAE cuts free of OPEC – who wins, who loses, who’s next? (clients only)    Related Episodes   How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey  Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons  Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/49X79uF Let’s Talk Energy and dig into the increasingly contentious world of critical minerals. These materials, and particularly rare earth elements, have vaulted to the forefront of the growing intersection between energy and security, forcing the West to reckon with China’s almost complete dominance of a sector that is the building block for everything from renewable power generation and batteries to computer chips and radar systems. The US and many of its allies are trying to rapidly develop a viable alternative supply chain through a combination of industrial policy, trade diplomacy and innovation. While seen as a critical issue for both countries, the summit between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump resulted in no concrete advances in trade policy, leaving an uneasy truce between the two sides.  How did China become so dominant in mining and processing critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements and how is it using this leverage?  How can the West begin to close the gap and why are new approaches needed for non-Chinese companies to compete?  What does a viable critical minerals industry in the West look like, and how long could it take to develop?   Related Analysis  Putting things in perspective: Data center investments now on par with renewables, oil and gas (available to non-clients)   Battery Metals Weekly: US zeros in on independent critical minerals supply (clients only)  Battery Metals Weekly: US eyes recycling for critical mineral independence (clients only)  Tariff update: Tariff politics intensify as G7 mineral bloc forms (clients only)  Related Episodes   Will power-hungry data centers overwhelm the grid?  Winners and losers in Trump’s energy agenda  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/48VVL1M Let’s Talk Energy and take the pulse of the aviation industry as it struggles to source enough fuel as the Middle East war dries up global supplies.    Airlines are facing their biggest test since Covid. While Brent futures are up 70+% this year, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe and risen 110% in Asia over 2025 averages.   The situation caused the CEO of United Airlines to warn ticket prices could increase by about 20%. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights that it said were no longer profitable.  US budget carrier Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether after declaring bankruptcy. And finally, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that Europe could start running out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks.    How has the war hit jet fuel supplies, and why has the price squeeze been even worse for jet than for crude?   How are refiners reacting to the shortage, and do high prices necessarily mean high margins for the sector?   What can countries do – short of grounding flights – to manage this market and help consumers cope with the runup in prices?     Related Analysis  Special Report #4: Middle East conflict implications (available to non-clients)  Hormuz crisis reshapes clean fuel investment across the transportation space (available to non-clients)  AusFuel Monitor: Emergency cargoes steady Australia jet-fuel supply for now (clients only)   Weekly insight: Europe’s jet-fuel market tightens as replacements fall short (clients only)  Weekly insight: Middle East strikes force jet fuel cracks to soar (clients only)    Related Episodes   What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil  Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X

This episode was recorded on Thursday, 30 April 2026. Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4dgjr2q Let’s Talk Energy and look at how oil-importing countries in Asia are coping with the loss of vital Middle East supply as benchmark prices hit four-year highs above $120. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, many refiners in Asia, who are the largest buyers of barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have spent the two months scrambling to find alternative supplies and bidding up spot cargoes of certain grades. But, at least in one country, that is changing. Recently, China’s refiners have flipped their approach and are selling cargoes back into the market, as export curbs, price controls and price-sensitive consumers hurt the economics of turning the crude into fuel. The change comes at a time when so-called alternative supplies, including those from Russia and Iranian cargoes that had continued to transit until the most recent US blockade of Hormuz, come under increasing pressure. But first, we look at the dynamics surrounding the departure of the UAE from Opec+ and how it could impact the markets in the near-term and further into the future.   How are major Asian importers finding the barrels they need at a price they can afford, while also shielding consumers from higher fuel costs?  How has China’s strategic shift impacted both physical and futures markets and how might we expect that behavior to evolve?   And will sanctions on one of China’s largest teapot refineries create a bidding war with Indian refiners over a limited available volume of Russian barrels.     Related Analysis  China resells crude as Asia absorbs the supply shock unevenly (clients only)  The oil chokepoint: China’s evolving playbook for Strait of Hormuz crisis  (clients only)  The UAE's exit and the limits of OPEC+ control: Special report #4, Middle East conflict (available to non-clients)  US sanctions on China’s Hengli aim to choke Iran - petroyuan gets a boost (clients only)  Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think (available to non-clients)  UAE’s OPEC exit can help alleviate pain for Indian refineries  (clients only)  Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on (available to non-clients)  Russian supply hit by drone attacks, but worst-case risks fade for now (clients only)    Related Episodes  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil  What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X