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This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world in which wars of choice are producing consequences nobody quite knows how to manage. They begin with Ukraine (Putin’s war of choice), where Haass calls American policy toward Russia nothing short of shameful, and the decision to restrict Ukraine’s military communications raises deeply troubling questions about Washington’s reliability and priorities. From there, they turn to Saudi Arabia, a Saudi war of choice in 2015 and where now the Houthis are threatening not simply the kingdom’s security but potentially the legitimacy and stability of the House of Saud itself. The parallels with America’s predicament in Iran (Trump’s war of choice) are, shall we say, uncomfortable. Also on the agenda: Germany’s economic malaise, Europe’s absence from the AI race, and the disturbing normalization of political violence in the United States. Finally, the Yankees and Dodgers discover that money cannot buy everything, while baseball’s smaller markets remind us that competence can more than compensate for payroll. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This episode of Alternate Shots begins with a status report on the Iran War (who will cry "uncle" first, is the question), President Xi's mysterious "naps" at the White House, the upcoming Israeli election, the U.S. abandonment of Ukraine, the "plague" outbreak in Siberia, Pete Hegseth's presidential campaign and OpenAI's astonishing breakthrough(s) in mathematics. We end with the speedy departure of the New York Yankees from the MLB playoffs and the surprisingly competitive Nearby New York Giants. Reggie Jackson may need to hedge his bet. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world where institutions, summits, and alliances are showing their age. They begin with UN week in New York, where Haass argues the United Nations has become less an institution than a venue: useful for speeches and side meetings, but largely irrelevant when the major powers disagree. From there, they turn to the Trump-Xi summit, a quiet affair that may be preferable to the wrong kind of grand bargain. They also discuss Haass’s Foreign Affairs essay on Iran, where diplomacy is now the least bad option after months of war, higher oil prices, and diminishing U.S. leverage. Also on the agenda: China’s role in sustaining Iran, Russia’s temptation to test NATO, AI and cyber vulnerability, Trump fatigue, and the tragedy of the New York Giants. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass look ahead to the Trump-Xi summit and ask whether, in this instance, an uneventful meeting would be preferable to a consequential one. Haass worries not about failure, but about the wrong kind of success: a commercial deal purchased at the expense of Taiwan, American allies, or U.S. leverage on Russia and Iran. From there, they turn to AI, where the United States and China dominate the field but lack the trust, process, and perhaps urgency required to build meaningful guardrails. They also assess the Houthis’ expanding role in the Red Sea, the widening maritime crisis, Saudi Arabia’s diminishing options, and America’s munitions shortfall, which points to a deeper conceptual failure in U.S. defense planning. Finally: press access, a possible blue wave, the Giants, and the Jets. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass consider a world in which old assumptions no longer hold. They begin with 9/11, what it did and did not change, and the danger that AI, drones, and biotechnology could make terrorism newly consequential. From there, they turn to diplomacy done backward: envoys courting Moscow before Kyiv, money offered where nationalism is the real currency, and the spreading crisis at sea as the Houthis threaten the Bab el-Mandeb. Also on the table: Iran, Saudi Arabia, oil prices, Treasury overreach, AI dread, the Giants, late-night tennis, and the Walker Cup. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether declaring the Iran war over makes it so. Haass is skeptical: a blockade remains an act of war, retaliation remains likely, and the United States is still stuck in the gray zone between ceasefire and conflict. They also examine Russian support for Iran, the anti-American axis on display at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Turkey’s hedging, Venezuela’s oil gamble, inflation, the possibility of a blue wave, and the risks of AI escaping its sandbox. Finally, because every reputable outlet needs a sports section, they turn to the Giants and Odell Beckham Jr. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass mark six months of the Iran war and ask: what went wrong? Many things is their answer. They're equally downbeat about Treasury Secretary's "D-Day" and President Trump's rekindled interest in North Korea, although not as downbeat as Stanley Druckenmiller and the South Koreans. The conversation then turns to the devastating research report from The British Medical Journal (BMJ) on professional (American) football players and CTE (brain damage). Bonus: a quick mini-roundup of sports news.  Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass examine a world discovering that technology, politics, and war are moving faster than institutions built to manage them. They begin with Iran, where Haass argues Washington should have led with economic pressure, not military escalation, and where coercion now tests which side can endure more pain. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s drone advantage, America’s dated defense posture, and the need for something like a second Pentagon built for cheap, scalable systems. They also weigh deficits, vaccines, anti-vax politics, Democratic enthusiasm, Trump’s health, and the uneasy state of the WNBA. Finally, because equilibrium must be restored, there is golf: Winged Foot, Phil Mickelson, and the value of low expectations. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which imperfect outcomes may be the best available ones. They begin with Iran, where Haass sees a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but not peace, not a ceasefire, and not a strategic victory. Tehran has gained leverage; Washington has limited options; and America’s defense-industrial base is proving ill-suited to the wars it may be asked to fight. From there, they turn to Ukraine’s air-defense crisis, the unreality of the latest Gaza peace plan, Israel’s growing estrangement from American politics, and the coming collision between AI and domestic policy. Finally, because no episode is complete without sports, Haass hedges on the maybe-not-playoff-bound New York Giants and both marvel at the resurgent Boston Red Sox.  Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass assess a world in which overreach has become policy. They begin with Iran, where the United States and Tehran appear to be acting against their own interests: bombing, retaliation, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and a memorandum of understanding that solved too little and conceded too much. Haass argues the next step should be a ceasefire, renewed nuclear diplomacy, and a more serious effort to reopen the strait. They then turn to a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear arrangement, the absence of process in American foreign policy, Mayor Mamdani’s performative politics, a brutal Fox poll for Trump, AI systems moving faster than governance, and, finally, Cam Young, the Open, and the World Cup. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass ask whether Washington has anything resembling a Plan C for Iran. Haass offers one: First, accept that previous U.S. plans (first bombing our way to regime change or Iranian capitulation followed by an effort to negotiate an end to the war on reasonable terms) have all failed. Then he suggests adopting a new strategy, one that includes maintaining sanctions rather than rewarding Tehran, building Gulf defenses against Iranian drones and missiles, accelerating measures to gradually reduce the Strait’s strategic importance, and returning focus to the nuclear issue to ensure that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. It may mean accepting the uncomfortable reality of a privileged role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz for a time if it is to stay open. The two co-hosts also discuss Ukraine’s new leverage, Russia’s temptations, America’s contested midterms, and the curse of Trump in sports. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

This week on Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass take stock of a world long on ceasefires and short on strategy. They begin with the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the subject of Haass’s recent Home and Away essay, bluntly titled “Defeat,” and ask whether the deal is less diplomacy than capitulation: vague on the nuclear question, silent on missiles, generous to Tehran, and dangerous for Israel and America’s partners. From there, they turn to Netanyahu’s narrowing room for maneuver, JD Vance’s warning to Israel, and the erosion of U.S. reliability. They then discuss Haass’s forthcoming Foreign Affairs essay with Council on Foreign Relations Taiwan expert David Sacks on Taiwan, arms sales, and the risk of treating commitments as bargaining chips. Finally, they touch on Keir Starmer’s troubles, Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock, the Knicks’ improbable championship. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

John Ellis and Richard Haass take up a world in which problems are less solved than managed. Iran remains unfinished business, with the future of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits on Iran, and sanctions relief all in play. What is certain is that the Gulf states face a future of greater uncertainty, with some likely to try to come to terms with Iran and others more inclined to confront it. China’s outreach to North Korea reveals an effort on Xi Jinping's part to reestablish influence there as well as the unease beneath his partnership with Putin as Russia's war with Ukraine grows more costly, less winnable, and harder to exit. At home, California’s elections and urban progressive politics point to intra-Democratic tensions heading toward 2028. And, inevitably, the Knicks, with one of our two hosts going with his head and the other his heart. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

For years, artificial intelligence occupied the familiar territory of technological optimism: faster growth, greater efficiency, and the promise that innovation would solve more problems than it created. That era may be ending. This week on Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis examine the rapid emergence of AI not simply as a business story, but as a political, strategic, and even theological one. Prompted by a sweeping papal encyclical warning against surrendering human judgment to machines, the conversation explores the widening backlash against Silicon Valley’s concentration of power and the growing fear that societies are drifting into dependence on systems they neither understand nor control. From the possibility of AI regulation and U.S.-China competition to the surprising coalition forming between populists, evangelicals, and labor skeptics, Haass argues that the debate over artificial intelligence is quickly becoming a debate about governance itself. Also: early 2028 political maneuvering, Texas intrigue, and the improbable emotional stability of New York Knicks fans. Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger

In this week’s Alternate Shots, Richard Haass and John Ellis begin with Iran, which remains suspended in the uneasy territory between war and peace.  Washington appears to be inching toward a revised nuclear arrangement that resembles, in substance if not in branding, the very deal Donald Trump tore up in his first term. Also emerging are growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may come to regret advocating for a war that has created growing problems for Israel's relations with its most important patron. In Asia, Trump’s remarks on Taiwan raise unsettling questions about whether support for Taiwan could be traded off in exchange for increased access to China's market. The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where mounting Russian casualties, strikes deep inside Russian territory, and growing signs of political anxiety around Vladimir Putin suggest the war may be nearing an end on terms closer to Ukraine's than Russia's. Domestically, Senate Republicans might finally be balking at the political excesses and corruption of the Trump administration, which is turning into a political liability with all but hard-core Republican voters. The episode closes, as always, with sports, which thanks to the Knicks and the PGA provide an upbeat final few minutes.   Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass News Items on Substack Home and Away on Substack Produced by Dale Eisinger