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The Overton Insights team is joined by Florida Politics reporter AG Gancarski to discuss the midterms in Florida and new national polling trends. Both Mark and AG expect Republicans to hold Florida this November, but they split on the margins. In this episode, we cover: Is Byron Donalds' lead as safe as it looks? - Mason-Dixon has Donalds up 7 over David Jolly and YouGov has him up 2. AG and Mark dig into why Donalds skipped the primary debates, Jay Collins' influence, James Fishback's refusal to endorse, and the end of the DeSantis era. How close can Angie Nixon get to Ashley Moody? - Moody leads the special election for Marco Rubio's old Senate seat. Mark argues that if Nixon keeps it within five, Jolly could win the governor's race. What does Gallup's D+11 Party ID poll mean for the midterms? - Gallup's Q3 party ID is the best number for Democrats since 2009. Mark expects the final environment closer to D+8, and AG says he isn't seeing a shy Republican effect in Florida polling. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 04:31 - Did skipping debates cost Byron Donalds? 07:10 - Why James Fishback is staying on the sidelines 10:42 - Donalds' polling lead and Jolly's money problem 13:55 - Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon 20:13 - Is Florida a red state or a purple one? 24:41 - Gallup's D+11 and the blue wave debate 29:41 - Can Republicans separate from Trump? 31:24 - Florida predictions: governor and Senate 33:01 - Florida's sleeper race for CFO POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Mason-Dixon Florida poll: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28724874/fl1026results.pdf 📊 YouGov Florida poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf 📊 Gallup Q3 party identification: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654560/quarterly-party-affiliation.aspx The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. This episode features special guest AG Gancarski, who has covered statewide elections for Florida Politics since 2014. His work has also appeared in the Washington Post, New York Post, Washington Times, and National Review. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Less than five weeks until the election, Mark Cunningham calls these key governor races. Plus: new drama unfolds in Texas, and a new polls in Georgia and Ohio shed light on shifting dynamics. In this episode, we cover: Can Republicans hold governor's mansions in a blue wave year? - Mark's first gubernatorial predictions: Rick Jackson by 1.8 over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Vivek Ramaswamy by 1 over Amy Acton in Ohio, Jocelyn Benson by 8 in Michigan, Rob Sand by 3 in Iowa, Tina Kotek by 2.6 over Christine Drazan in Oregon, and David Crowley by 4 over Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Mark expects split tickets in Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing Georgia? - A YouGov poll of about 3,300 likely voters shows a 10-point gap between Jon Ossoff's Senate number and Lance Bottoms' governor number. Mark explains why that moves the governor's race from lean D to a toss-up. Why is the blue wave stronger in red states? - Olivia brings in Nate Silver's read on where the wave is landing. Mark argues voters are punishing whoever holds power: Trump in red states, Democratic incumbents in places like Oregon and Maine. Will Ohio prove the polls wrong? - Mark runs down the latest polls of Ohio, and explains why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't translating in the polls while Sen. Jon Husted's low profile could be hurting him. Is Trump dragging down Ken Paxton? - Paxton seemingly blames Trump and the RNC midterm convention for his campaign's troubles. Mark reacts and explains why he doesn't trust the Pulse Decision Science internal poll showing Paxton ahead. How unpopular is the Iran war? - The Argument's national poll puts the war in Iran near Vietnam among the least popular U.S. wars of the last century, and finds Trump's approval falling as gas prices rise. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:35 - Headlines: two Michigan polls, a Paxton internal, and Cook shifts in Florida and Texas 01:49 - Mark flips his read of the Georgia governor's race to Rick Jackson 02:21 - Governor calls for Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa 04:16 - Oregon: the governor's race where Republicans could pull an upset 05:35 - Wisconsin after the Marquette poll 06:17 - Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing her lead? 08:46 - Why the blue wave seems strongest in red states 10:20 - Ohio may be the test of whether the polls are wrong 13:17 - Why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't helping him 16:29 - Paxton's leaked audio and new internal polling 20:12 - The Argument: Iran war, gas prices, and Trump's approval POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Michigan Senate poll (Cygnal/Beacon): https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/ 📊 Fox News Michigan Senate poll: https://www.foxnews.com/fox-news-poll-methodology-statement 📊 Pulse Decision Science Texas Senate poll (Paxton internal): https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2105048317780771129?s=20 📊 Co/efficient Maine Senate poll: https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/ 📊 YouGov Georgia poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105347162850607610?s=20 📊 Big Data Poll Ohio Senate poll: https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/ 📊 Marist Poll Ohio: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2104786340403675323?s=20 📰 The Argument polling article on wars and gas prices: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Six weeks out from the elections, we lay out our first Senate forecasts and review the week's biggest poll drops. In this episode, we cover: Who wins the Senate six weeks out? Mark makes his calls in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Is Michigan slipping away from Mike Rogers? NYT/Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up 49% to 44%, and Suffolk has El-Sayed +7 points, his biggest lead since Labor Day. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean D, while Cook still rates it a toss-up. We break down rising gas and diesel prices, Trump's approval drag, and whether Dana Nessel's endorsement signals Democrats are finally uniting behind El-Sayed. How can two good pollsters be 13 points apart in Iowa? We analyze registered vs. likely voter samples and why a split-ticket could happen. Is there any chance for Ken Paxton in Texas? Talarico comes in leading all new polls in Texas again this week. We compare both to our own Overton Insights Texas poll and look at the NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll. We also ask whether quiet Republican voters could shrink the blue wave. Could Nithya Raman win LA by double digits? A new poll shows Raman ahead of Mayor Karen Bass, and she now leads on Kalshi 57% to 42%. Mark predicts a double-digit point win, with a potential Spencer Pratt endorsement of Bass. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: NYT/Siena drops in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire 00:45 - We predict these key senate races 04:32 - Michigan polls this week 06:51 - Gas, diesel, and the Trump problem 09:58 - Is the Democratic coalition finally uniting behind El-Sayed? 11:37 - Susan Collins leads in NYT/Siena poll of Maine 14:23 - Iowa's 13-point polling gap: Marist vs. Emerson 17:01 - More Texas polls show Talarico ahead 21:20 - New Hampshire still looks competitive 23:55 - Are quiet Republicans hiding in the polls? 25:01 - LA mayor: Nithya Raman surges past Karen Bass 26:45 - Would Spencer Pratt really endorse Karen Bass? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 NYT/Siena Michigan Senate poll (9/15–9/22), El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/michigan-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Suffolk Michigan Senate poll (9/16–9/20), El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=3846F455203B08DE085D08400622793E4DB74FB2 📊 Emerson Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/ 📊 Washington Post Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf 📊 InsiderAdvantage Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +2: https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/ 🎙 Nate Silver on gas and diesel prices: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2102491410029019311 📊 NYT/Siena Maine poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Marist Iowa poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102249505387151488 📊 Emerson Iowa poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 NPR/Marist Texas poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf 📊 Emerson Texas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/ 📊 Overton Insights Texas poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll,: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Los Angeles mayoral runoff poll: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2102736228298674447 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

The generic ballot is moving fast toward Democrats, and Mark's not sure whether to call it a wave or a tsunami. But here are three races Republicans surprisingly have a chance at winning! In this episode, we cover: Blue wave or blue tsunami? – National generic ballot polling has swung hard toward Democrats, with likely-voter samples running as high as D+11 to D+13 (Marquette). We break down why the shift tracks so closely with Trump's approval, why the $5,000 checks aren't moving Republican voters, and what the roughly 10-point statewide movement means with just weeks to go. Three competitive races Republicans should watch – In a D-leaning national environment, New Hampshire (Sununu vs Pappas), Oregon (Drazan vs. Kotek), and Minnesota (Tafoya vs Flanagan) are all much more competitive than many expected. We analyze why these states run on their own logic, plus a Maine deep dive on why Susan Collins is outperforming Trump by 20-plus points and holding a narrow lead over Troy Jackson. Iowa's split-ticket setup – We discuss Rob Sand's strong run for governor, the tighter Turek–Hinson Senate race, and why voters cross party lines for governors far more readily than for senators. Mark flags Sand as a name to watch for potential 2028 presidential nominees. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode… 00:28 - Blue wave or blue tsunami? 01:00 - Likely voters make it worse: Marquette D+13 and the D+8-to-10 read 01:45 - A 10-point swing in nearly every state 02:12 - How much of this is just Trump's approval? 04:10 - Why the $5,000 checks aren't working 05:49 - Three races Republicans shouldn't be competitive in: NH, Oregon, Minnesota 07:25 - Maine deep dive: Collins vs. Jackson favorability and the double-haters 09:40 - Mark's upset pick: Susan Collins wins again 09:57 - Cook moves New Hampshire to toss-up 10:27 - Mark takes a victory lap on Sununu 11:35 - The unexpected potential map: Texas blue, New Hampshire red 12:59 - Setting the stage in Iowa 13:22 - Rob Sand, candidate quality, and the governor's race 15:50 - A 2028 name to watch 17:01 - Why voters split tickets for governor but not Senate 18:14 - Does that cross-party habit reach the Texas governor's race? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights Texas Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 Marquette Law School Poll (likely voters, D+13): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/?n=@ 📊 Morning Consult generic ballot (D+4): https://intel.morningconsult.com/mc-content/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling 📊 Quantus Insights Maine Senate poll (Collins vs. Jackson): https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race 📊 Emerson Iowa polling: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 Cygnal Iowa poll: https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf 📰 Cook Political Report — New Hampshire Senate moved to toss-up: [LINK NEEDED] The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

Our Texas poll is now included in Nate Silver's forecasts! Plus Olivia and Mark dig into three races most people may not be watching yet, plus the math both parties need in order to control the Senate after the midterms. In this episode, we cover: - Overton's Texas poll tops Nate Silver's forecast – Our recent Texas survey, built on a likely voter screen of over 1,100 respondents, is now weighted highest in Silver Bulletin's model. We break down what got us there and why methodology matters more than timing. - Kansas gets its moment – A listener contest winner picked the topic, so we dig into the Kansas Governor's race between Cindy Holster and J.D. Masterson, plus the Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton Senate race. We discuss why Kansas isn't the deep-red state people assume, and why this is the first two-candidate governor's ballot the state has seen in 32 years. - New Hampshire's under-the-radar Senate race – Mark makes the case for why John Sununu could be more competitive against Chris Pappas than the betting markets suggest, and what his family name means in a state with a surprisingly libertarian streak. - Minnesota's stunner of a poll – A new TIPP survey has Michelle Tafoya down just two points to Peggy Flanagan, a huge indicator the race may be closer than one might expect. We discuss what it signals for Republicans across the Midwest. - The path to Senate control – With Republicans holding a 53-47 edge, we rank the races that actually decide the majority, including Maine, Texas, and one Senator whose party affiliation could scramble the math entirely. --- POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Global Strategy Group poll, Kansas Governor's race (Holster internal): https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/28/nevada-dems-2028-reality-check-01053864 📊 University of New Hampshire poll, Sununu +2: https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/ 📊 TIPP poll for the League of American Workers, Minnesota Senate: https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-minnesota/ --- The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Is Texas a red state, a purple state, or something in between? Our new Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation poll finds the Paxton–Talarico Senate race locked in a dead heat when leaners are forced to choose a candidate, and our hypothetical matchips may upend everything you've heard about who the "electable" candidate really is. In this episode, we cover: It's football season! We asked over 1,100 likely Texas voters who the most obnoxious college fan base is. We crowned the Texas A&M Aggies as the winner with 29.7% and University of Texas took a close second with 27.4%. Surprisingly, the University of Houston Cougars came in third. Is Texas actually turning purple? – 57% of Texans call their state reliably red, 38.3% say it's competitive, and just 4.7% call it blue. We break down why newcomers are far more likely to see purple, why nearly 29% of Republicans agree, and TPPF's Eric Oldfather makes the case that Texas is a "light red" state. Paxton vs. Talarico is a coin flip – Ken Paxton sits at 43.4% to James Talarico's 44%, and the race lands at an exact 50-50 once leaners are pushed. We analyze why this is the best Senate number Paxton has posted in months, and why Talarico has to "pitch a perfect game" to win. The Cornyn and Crockett myth-busting – Conventional wisdom said John Cornyn would have likely been the stronger nominee. This data says otherwise. Paxton trails Talarico by 0.6 points, and Cornyn by 0.9 points. On the other side, Jasmine Crockett loses to Paxton by 6 points. We discuss what that means for candidate quality versus the national environment. Is the Texas power grid reliable? We polled the difference in confidence among voters during periods of extreme heat and extreme cold. Eric Oldfather from the Texas Public Policy Foundation joins us to discuss the state of the Texas power grid and what Texans should know about today's energy policy landscape.  POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. This episode also features special guest Eric Oldfather, Vice President of Communications at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an Austin-based think tank. A sixth-generation Texan, Oldfather spent a decade as a digital marketing consultant for political campaigns and advocacy groups before joining TPPF, and holds a political science degree from George Washington University. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - September 2026 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

Seventy-one percent of Americans don't want data centers built near them, and it's becoming one of the most critical issues on the 2026 ballot. This week we dig into why the industry lost the messaging war before it started, where Trump's approval is dragging Senate candidates, and a seasonality quirk that may make summer polls lean more Democratic. In this episode, we cover: Why are data centers the most hated issue of the cycle? – A leaked Senate GOP campaign memo warned AI companies that opposition to data centers is threatening a key Ohio seat. We break down why the backlash crosses party lines, how candidates like Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin are flipping the script, and why roughly 70% opposition is showing up in state after state ahead of our upcoming Texas poll. Is Trump's approval sinking the Senate map? – With net approval sitting between minus 20 to 26, we analyze the balancing act Republican candidates face as November quickly approaches. What's behind the summer polling bump for Democrats? – Patrick Ruffini's review of roughly 3,300 Senate polls found a late-July-to-August lean toward Democrats that fades by Election Day. We discuss the leading theories, from reluctant Republican voters to likely-voter model gaps, plus Nate Silver's take using the Michigan Senate race as a live example. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Gallup polling on data center sentiment (~71% unfavorable): https://news.gallup.com/poll/709772/americans-oppose-data-centers-area.aspx 📰 Axios reporting on the Senate GOP campaign memo (Ohio): https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/gop-data-center-memo-ai-election?utm_medium=referral 📊 Patrick Ruffini / Echelon Insights report on ~3,300 Senate polls: https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/why-senate-polling-is-always-worse The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

What an upset in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary! Plus, our take on Median Strategies "social experiment" and how it hurts the credibility of legitimate pollsters. In this episode, we cover: How did a $16 million establishment favorite lose to a candidate with under $1 million? – We break down Angie Nixon's grassroots upset over Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate primary, why Mark thinks Democrats' habit of nominating "boring but well-funded" candidates keeps failing, and what Nixon's win means for Ashley Moody and Republicans' hold on the seat. The internet is not real life, (as we expected) Florida governor edition – Byron Donalds won with 48% of the vote, and James Fishback's enthusiastic online following translated to a distant third-place finish behind Jay Collins. A pollster admitted it made up numbers, and it got worse from there – The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) had Fishback within striking distance while every legitimate poll had him near 10%. We discuss their memo explaining they moved Jay Collins voters to Fishback, the "social experiment" claims from Median Strategies, and what G. Elliott Morris and AAPOR are doing about it.   SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a shocking Senate upset and a fake poll 00:22 - Angie Nixon takes down a $16 million favorite 02:25 - Was this a Mamdani-style campaign? Not quite 04:00 - The governor's race goes exactly as polling predicted 04:21 - Byron Donalds wins by 22, Fishback finishes a distant third 06:37 - David Jolly vs. Angie Nixon: two very different Democratic bets 09:06 - Electability and the late-decider question 10:14 - The Fishback polling problem, TPSI 13:10 - The memo that made it worse: "we changed the votes" 15:40 - Median Strategies and the "social experiment" scam 17:30 - Why internal candidate polls need more scrutiny 21:04 - How to spot a credible poll when you're scrolling X POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Echelon Insights (weekly platform usage, 27% X): https://echeloninsights.com/insights/august-2026-verified-voter-omnibus 🎙 G. Elliott Morris on excluding TPSI from aggregation: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/2090406757818359935 🎙 AAPOR statement on fabricated data: https://aapor.org/announcements/aapor-responds-to-fabricated-polling-data/ The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow. In this episode, we cover: - How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame. - How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision. - Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York  00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin  03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier 05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in 06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics 09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll 11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP 11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore 13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York 14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold" POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/12/siena-hochul-has-10-point-lead-over-blakeman-in-first-poll-of-likely-voters-01033560 📊 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/wisconsin/ 🎲 Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it. In this episode, we cover: How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers. Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled. Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/  📊 YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf  📊 NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html 🎲Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: kalshi.com/markets/senatetx 🎲Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: polymarket.com/predictions/texas-senate 📊 PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): https://www.wisn.com/article/crowley-campaign-argues-primary-is-closer-than-polls-say-after-michigan-results/73358997  📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/07/29/marquette-law-poll-finds-expanded-support-for-hong-in-democratic-primary-barnes-sits-second-and-crowley-third/ 🎲Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 🎲Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner 📊 Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_Oz7n375ncOkmMWPs8DJTKcBD3Gke4-/view  📰 "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/us/politics/democratic-party-socialists-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=1  🎙 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084835353437860230?s=20  This episode of The Polling Alley features Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham, founder of the Beacon Poll, with special guest Randy Ellison, founder and president of Targoz Market Research and author of the Pollsters' Almanac on Substack. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Will El-Sayed beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? New Emerson polling has Abdul El-Sayed up 15 over Haley Stevens, and Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement may have made things worse...  In this episode, we cover: Did Whitmer's endorsement backfire on Haley Stevens? – Fresh Emerson polling shows Abdul El-Sayed leading the Michigan Senate primary by 15 points, with a separate poll putting him up 11. We break down why Governor Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens right before Monday's debate seems to have cost her approval rating 16 points, and whether El-Sayed can hold the middle against Mike Rogers in a general election. Could Ohio Split the Ticket? – Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton are running dead even for governor, and John Husted is trying to defend a Senate seat with little name recognition against Sherrod Brown. We dig into why polls and prediction markets align, and why Ohio may be more like Michigan than some want to admit. Who do voters actually consider "elite"? – A new poll from The Argument / Verasight asked Americans to define the elite, and the answer wasn't professors or journalists. We discuss what the results mean for how both parties talk about class, and why Democrats may be stuck choosing between a primary they can win and a general they can't. 📊 Emerson College Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2... 📊 Tavern Research Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 📊 NY Times/Siena Poll, Ohio Governor Race: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2... 🎲 Ohio Governor Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyoh... 🎲 Ohio Senate Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/senateohs/... 📊 The Argument / Verasight Poll, "Who Are the Elites?": https://substack.com/@theargument/p-2... The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Poll Director Mark Cunningham. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights  Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! These front-runners have been leading by double-digits in the polls, but contenders try to catch up as primaries near. We break down three governor's races and whether their campaign strategy seems to hold up.  In this episode, we cover:  Is Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee lead actually collapsing? – Blackburn led John Rose by 53 points and Monty Fritz by 58 points in May. Recent polling has her rivals climbing into the teens, and her decision to play prevent defense could give them an opening. We break down whether Rose's establishment money or Fritz's grassroots online army has a real shot at closing the gap before early voting ends. In Florida, will Donalds' Blackburn-esque playbook work? – Byron Donalds holds a 5-point edge on Democrat David Jolly in general election polls, but first he has to win the nomination. James Fishback and Jay Collins are each pulling double digits and could split the anti-Donalds vote. We discuss Fishback's online-first campaign, Collins running on a DeSantis endorsement he doesn't actually have, and why a contested primary could push whoever wins further from the center. Wisconsin Democrats can't agree – Francesca Hong is sitting at roughly 75% on prediction markets while the party's moderate lane split between two candidates, one of which who already dropped out then was pulled back in. We analyze what a fractured primary means heading into November. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Tennessee GOP primary internal poll, Blackburn - https://www.tennessean.com/story/news... 📊 TN GOP Primary, May 2026 Beacon Poll: https://tennsight.com/polls/may-2026/ 📊 Tennessee poll, Wick - https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Tennessee GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/tennesse... 📊 Florida primary poll, Donalds - https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2079... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Florida GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/republic... 📊 Wisconsin head-to-head polling - https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2079... 🎲 Kalshi odds, Wisconsin Democratic primary - https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsi... The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside host and Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Youtube - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Two new polls of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary released within days of each other disagree by twenty points on who's leading the field. Plus, who are "double haters" voting for in November? In this episode, we cover: - Which poll do you believe in Michigan's Senate primary? Detroit News and Data for Progress released dueling surveys on the Democratic Senate primary. One shows Haley Stevens up 7 points. The other, an internal poll from the Abdul El-Sayed campaign, shows him up 13 points. - Republicans, be careful what you wish for. Some Republicans are rooting for El-Sayed to win the primary, betting he's the weaker general election opponent. We discuss why that strategy could backfire. - Meet the "double haters." A new G. Elliott Morris/Verasight poll finds one in five voters rate both parties below 50 on a feeling thermometer scale. These "double haters" favor Democrats by 26 points. We unpack why this group leans left, and the one stat in the poll that actually matters for the midterms.   The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.  Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Two Senate candidates dropped out this week, and Maine Democrats scramble to find someone capable of beating Susan Collins. In this episode, we cover:  - Who could replace Graham Platner in Maine and can anyone beat Susan Collins? Platner is out, and Maine Democrats have until the 27th to name a replacement with no clear heir apparent. We break down why PPP shows Troy Jackson leading while Janet Mills sits last, why Jared Golden's refusal to run changes everything, and why Collins is suddenly the favorite in a race Democrats thought they were winning. - Paxton vs. Talarico: is Texas actually a coin flip? A new NYT/CNN poll has the race tied 47–47, with Talarico running eight points ahead of the generic Democrat. We analyze whether that's a strong candidate or a weak Paxton, why the betting markets still give Paxton a 75% edge, and what "getting platnered" could mean before November. - Michigan gets even messier after McMorrow exits. With Mallory McMorrow out, it's Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens, but McMorrow's name stays on the ballot and she's declined to endorse. We discuss why El-Sayed's frontrunner status may be overpriced, what Emily's List jumping to Stevens signals, and why Republicans are quietly rooting for the progressive. - In Georgia we look at why Jon Ossoff is cruising, whether his influence can land Keisha Lance Bottoms in the governor's mansion.   The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. W ant to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance are leading the primary fields in Overton Insights' latest national poll. This is a special episode breaking down the March 2026 Overton Insights national poll, from presidential primary matchups to findings about unpopular political commentators and what voters think about a military draft. In this episode, we cover: Buttigieg leads, but can he actually win? Pete Buttigieg tops a crowded Democratic primary field at 16%, two points ahead of "Undecided" and three points ahead of Gavin Newsom. We break down why his lead is almost entirely a function of a fractured field, what receiving zero percent of the Black vote means for his ceiling, and why Kamala Harris at nine percent — tied with Bernie Sanders — may signal she's done before she starts. JD Vance leads the Republican primary, but trails behind Rubio in head-to-head ballot test. Vance tops a crowded GOP field, but loses by six points in a head-to-head against Marco Rubio. We analyze what's driving Vance's decline, why Rubio's bipartisan appeal may make him more electable, and whether Ron DeSantis is actually more viable than his last campaign suggests. Hasan Piker, Candace Owens, and the name ID reality check. Our poll tested favorability on a range of political figures from Spencer Pratt to Ben Shapiro to Erica Kirk. The crosstab that broke X? Forty-two percent of people who still live with their parents view Hassan Piker favorably, one of the only groups with a net positive. We discuss what name ID data tells us about the echo chamber problem in political media. Military draft, sports betting, and independent voter drift. We found that 66% of Americans oppose a Trump-implemented military draft, though Republicans split nearly 50-50 when Trump's name is attached. We also cover sports betting sentiment (47% oppose legalization in their state) and look at how independents are tracking much closer to Democrats than Republicans in this poll. The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Director of Polling and founder of the Beacon Poll and is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll crosstabs - March 2026 Overton Insights National Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-may-2026/