Advertise on podcast: Earnings Unscripted: Stock Earnings Calls & Analysis

Today's earnings from Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and ServiceNow (NOW) revealed a sharp divide in the AI economy: hyperscalers are taking on over $1.6 trillion in combined off-balance-sheet compute commitments just as enterprise buyers rebel against wasteful "tokenmaxxing" and force software vendors to embed human engineers and hardware kill switches to manage rogue agents. - Microsoft and ServiceNow route tasks to cheaper models and isolate agents, creating hybrid billing friction. - Alphabet burns $9.1B in free cash flow, issues stock, and builds inventory to sell physical TPUs. - All three deploy internal AI to automate coding and sales operations, triggering severance and exits. While underlying cloud demand remains strong, transitioning enterprise software from per-seat licenses to usage meters and funding physical data centers beyond operating cash flow are reshaping tech balance sheets and corporate headcount.

ServiceNow raised its full-year AI target to $1.7B+ in Q3 2026, yet shares dropped 20% after hours as bundling free human deployment engineers into AI deals carved basis points right off subscription revenue growth. In ~10 minutes: - Subscription revenue rose 21% YoY to nearly $4B 📈 - Bundled deployment engineers creating a 50 bps Q4 subscription drag - Automating 100 internal sales ops roles while $87M severance hits - Slashing Q3 capex 61% YoY to $91M, lifting FCF margin to 36% To get customers burning AI consumption credits twice as fast, management is embedding Forward Deployed Engineers directly into large contracts. Under GAAP rules, that support is carved out of subscription revenue and shifted into money-losing professional services—explaining why only half the Q3 revenue beat flowed into the full-year guide. Meanwhile, CEO Bill McDermott is pitching ServiceNow's Control Tower to clean up enterprise "vibe slop flops." Company: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Microsoft blew up its legacy reporting structure in Q1 FY2027 to finally reveal standalone Azure revenue at $33.2B (+48% YoY), even as third-party GPU deliveries slipped into the back half of the year. In ~10 minutes: - How weekly fleet software optimizations beat cloud estimates despite delayed GPU racks. - OpenAI crossing the 10% customer threshold, driving 11% (~$10.2B) of total revenue. - Billions in off-CapEx cash outflows quietly financing hardware suppliers' components. 💸 - Friction in M365 E3 seat sales during the shift to hybrid consumption billing. While headline free cash flow fell 27% YoY to $18.6B on $39.4B in cash CapEx, Microsoft is also using its balance sheet to act as a bank for its server supply chain. With Q2 CapEx guided above $50B and delayed GPU leases set to hit in H2, CFO Amy Hood signaled that tapping the debt markets is firmly on the table. Company: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | Q1 FY2027 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Alphabet just crossed a $1 trillion balance sheet in Q3 2026, yet burned $9.1 billion in quarterly free cash flow to feed its massive AI buildout. In ~10 minutes: - Why a SpaceX stock drop knocked $0.55 off Alphabet's diluted EPS 🚀 - How selling physical TPU boxes bloated inventory to $13.3B - Issuing $12.4B in ATM equity—more than double RSU tax needs - Search query growth at a 5-year high vs. the AI Mode ad drag - Over $1.07T in off-balance-sheet leases and commitments Google Cloud revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $30.7B, but the company is fundamentally flipping its capital structure. With zero share buybacks, $29B in fresh debt, and third-party "bridging" server rentals set to squeeze Q4 Cloud margins, we unpack the real cash mechanics behind Alphabet's AI hardware pivot. Company: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Today’s earnings showed that decade-long order backlogs and global brand power only convert into cash when companies engineer around physical factory bottlenecks, supply-chain stalls, and a stretched restaurant consumer. - Seagate (STX) pushed operating margins past 50% using lasers to pack more data onto fewer disks. - Boeing (BA) cleared FAA 737 testing but stalled on wing assembly, delaying $10B cash flow to 2029. - Coca-Cola (KO) split packaging for budget and premium buyers while holding leverage low ahead of an IRS ruling. Across hardware and consumer staples, physical throughput and balance-sheet defenses are separating headline demand from actual cash generation.

Seagate Technology (STX) just crossed a 50.7% non-GAAP operating margin in Q1 2027, proving that factory-heavy hard drive makers can post software-level profitability when cloud supply is sold out through 2028. In ~10 minutes: - Why cloud giants are locking in hard drive supply through 2030 ☁️ - Refusing to pass 10 platters: nanophotonic lasers vs. factory CapEx - Passing component inflation and Mozaic 4 "lossiness" straight to hyperscalers - Slashing debt by nearly $2B to set up a 2027 buyback pivot - The 10-K footnote showing a 20x jump in supplier financing obligations While competitors spend heavily to cram 12 or 14 platters into a box, Seagate kept CapEx at 5% of revenue by using lasers to pack more data onto its existing 10-disk architecture. Even with inventory days jumping to 97 ahead of Mozaic 4 qualifications, Q2 guidance calls for $4.8B in revenue and operating margins expanding toward the mid-50s. Company: Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) | Q1 FY2027 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

The Coca-Cola Company delivered a textbook Q3 2026 beat-and-raise with $13,380M in revenue—matching Q2 to the exact million—yet the stock faded as investors misread a temporary mix shift and overlooked a massive impending tax ruling. In ~10 minutes: - Why +1% price/mix hides 4 points of underlying pricing power. - Hoarding cash at 1.3x leverage ahead of a $20B IRS ruling. - Plasma-coated bottles in South Africa vs. fairlife shakes in America. 🥤 - Trading 8 points of 2027 revenue for asset-light bottling margins. Beneath the surface of a quiet earnings-day drift, CFO John Murphy is engineering the balance sheet for a binary appellate court outcome while CEO Henrique Braun executes the final stages of Coke's global refranchising. We also unpack why BODYARMOR is sitting at zero impairment cushion and why 2027 FX guidance was stale before the call even started. Company: The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Boeing’s Q3 2026 proved that locking up a monopoly on next-gen US fighter jets and hitting a record $745B backlog still can’t save the stock when internal wing-shop bottlenecks delay 737 delivery targets. ✈️ In ~10 minutes: - Why wing-shop "flow enablers" failed, pushing Rate 52 to late 2027. - Winning the Navy's F/A-XX fighter without toxic fixed-price contract terms. - How a $252M HRL Labs sale quietly doubled headline Defense margins. - Why 787 margins will beat 2018 peaks by 2029 while 737s never will. - The $10B free cash flow roadmap for 2029 shielded from cash taxes. Despite paying a ~$700M DOJ settlement check, Boeing generated $464M in Q3 free cash flow and finally secured FAA certification for both the 737-7 and 737-10. Yet shares tumbled 10% on earnings day as factory friction shifted the commercial ramp to the right. We break down why management intentionally slowed down the Wichita fuselage line and how they built a mid-2027 certification buffer into 777X accounting. Company: The Boeing Company (BA) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Cadence Design Systems turned a supposed cyclical renewal trough in Q3 2026 into an all-time record $8.2B backlog, even as a quiet $42.2M restructuring charge weighed on GAAP margins. In ~10 minutes: - Why 25 chips inside a single humanoid robot hand matter 🤖 - How the new Maestro AI router cuts token costs 5x - Unpacking the $42.2M restructuring charge and Hexagon's zero-profit drag - Why a 15% inventory spike to $449M signals Q4 strength - Borrowing $150M domestically to double buybacks while 85% of cash sits offshore Non-traditional system companies—from space tech to robotics—now drive 45% of Cadence's entire business. Plus, TSMC's roadmap for a 48x explosion in effective chip sizes is turning Cadence's verification hardware into an indispensable physical moat, giving management the confidence to raise full-year guidance for a third time. Company: Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Verizon’s Q3 2026 proved a telecom carrier can stop giving away free phones and still add 406,000 subscribers, even as Wall Street sold the stock down 3.2% on broadband slowdowns and balance sheet fine print. In ~10 minutes: - Subsidy-free "Simplicity" plan cuts promo costs 41%, lifting EBITDA margin to 40.2% 📱 - Why management intentionally turned away 300-megabit home internet buyers - Repurposing dormant millimeter wave spectrum for a 1-gigabit metro rollout - $3.2B in spectrum payments and $4.3B in vendor financing bypassing Free Cash Flow - Locking in $4B of AI dark fiber deals while rejecting SpaceX MVNO partnerships While the consumer business is cleaning up its economics, the corporate treasury team is still playing three-dimensional chess. We unpack how hybrid debt equity credits and off-balance-sheet equipment financing flattered headline leverage and cash flow metrics. Company: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Today’s earnings exposed a sharp split between physical AI infrastructure and software: power and storage suppliers locked in customer demand through 2031, but the physical cost of scaling factories and working capital triggered double-digit stock drops while software and automation froze headcount. - Western Digital (WDC) and Bloom Energy (BE) fell over 12% as cleanroom bottlenecks and unbilled milestones drained cash. - Spotify (SPOT) rallied 10.6% after peaking R&D spend without adding staff and selling internal AI coding tools externally. - Newmont (NEM) used $7.3B in nine-month cash flow for massive buybacks as silver and copper credits masked rising diesel costs. Across sectors, net-cash balance sheets are funding billions in share repurchases even as physical manufacturing bills climb.

Spotify Technology S.A. grew Q3 2026 R&D expenses by 35% YoY while shrinking headcount, declaring the official peak of its AI investment cycle as the stock surged over 10%. In ~10 minutes: - Why a 24% YoY drop in diluted EPS to €2.48 hid a strong €672M operating income beat. - How stock appreciation triggered €13M in unforecasted "Social Charges" payroll taxes. - Selling internal AI developer tools to outside companies to subsidize R&D costs. - Using ChatGPT and Meta's Muse as top-of-funnel remote controls, just like Waze. 🎧 - Q4 guidance for €820M operating income as audiobooks expand to 180+ markets. Even with tens of millions of users talking to Spotify's voice agent and mixing tracks to the millisecond, management is keeping a tight lid on payroll and using $1.1B in YTD buybacks to shrink the share count. The next real test arrives in Q1 2027, when two-year licensing agreements with Universal and Warner come up for renewal right as Spotify's margins hit new highs. Company: Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Bloom Energy generated more non-GAAP operating profit in Q3 2026 alone than in all of 2025 combined, yet the stock fell 15% as working capital burned $181M in free cash flow. In ~10 minutes: - Product sales top $1B at 38.4% non-GAAP gross margin ⚡ - Unbilled contract assets double QoQ to $793M, stalling cash collection - Why a $218M vendor advance spike followed a July short report - Zero amortization on the $306.5M Oracle warrant asset in Q3 - Sridhar’s "token cost of electricity" pitch and 800V DC savings Hyperscalers are wiring hundreds of millions in long-term deposits to lock in Bloom’s fuel cells over a year in advance, pushing FY26 revenue guidance to a $4.5B midpoint. Still, between financing customer delivery milestones on the front end and advancing cash to suppliers on the back end, hyper-growth is testing the balance sheet. Company: Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Newmont Corporation's Q3 2026 generated massive cash flow and a negative $9,301/oz by-product gold cost in Mexico, yet the stock fell 4% after hours as investors braced for a Q4 cost spike. In ~10 minutes: - ⛏️ How Peñasquito silver and zinc created a -$9,301/oz gold AISC. - Why Q4 by-product AISC is guided to jump from $1,454 to $1,900/oz. - Settling the Barrick Nevada dispute with a $1.95B check for Fourmile. - New $50M indirect oil cost sensitivity and above-budget labor inflation. - Reallocating $400M in winding-down Peru water treatment spend to Red Chris. While $4,317/oz realized gold and Cadia's post-earthquake recovery pushed 9M free cash flow to $7.3B, the market focused on what happens next quarter. With Mexican silver output set to get cut in half and capex peaking at $1.12B in Q4, the co-product shield is fading right as sticky diesel crack spreads and El Niño drought risks at Lihir come into view. Company: Newmont Corporation (NEM) | Q3 FY2026 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.

Western Digital’s Q1 2027 proves that legacy spinning hard drives can generate software-like gross margins when AI storage supply is capped—even if the market sold off over clean-room CapEx fears. In ~10 minutes: - Why WDC’s CapEx doubled to $227M without adding drive unit capacity 💿 - How rising DRAM and NAND prices slowed hard drive cost declines - Top seven hyperscalers locking in storage visibility out to 2031 - The $105M tax adjustment making GAAP and Non-GAAP net income identical - Guiding Q2 revenue to $5.1B with 60%+ Non-GAAP gross margins Despite beating Q1 consensus with $4.38B in revenue (+55% YoY) and $4.64 Non-GAAP EPS, WDC shares fell over 12% after hours. We unpack the clean-room physics of transitioning to 14-platter HAMR drives, why a $317M employee RSU tax withholding ate into free cash flow, and how WDC is engineering dual-pivot drives to steal AI inferencing cache workloads back from flash memory. Company: Western Digital Corporation (WDC) | Q1 FY2027 AI-assisted production. Feedback/ticker requests: https://x.com/EarnUnscripted.