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Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives? On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption. Topics covered: Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debtWhy Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recessionHow higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strongBrent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yieldsWhy Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside riskEric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuelHow diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPIEric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages missAI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contractionThe practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday lifeChapters: 00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks 05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields 12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff 18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief 23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions 31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation 40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation 44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns 50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent. Topics covered Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded The four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curve Brent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fear Nvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stock Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinking Timestamps 00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency 07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced 11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects 16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced 20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem 25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure 33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed 40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore 44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole 49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax 53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs 57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity 01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI world Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On this episode of Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next. Policy Pain!https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/policy-pain World War AIhttps://www.panoptica.com/world-war-ai-shared/ Topics covered Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility Timestamps 00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk. Main topics covered Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review 03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening 07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis 10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market 13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment 17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble? 20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him 23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected 29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX 33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset 38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge 42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing 48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation 55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles 59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors 01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next. Topics Covered: Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market 05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter 10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop 15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time 20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases 24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out 30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism 34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers 38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets 42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative 47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk 52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes 56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO 01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure 01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher. Topics Covered Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market Timestamps 00:00 Intro and market overview 01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news 03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience 06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit 08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies 10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth 14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks 17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear 18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment 20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk 22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework 24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven 26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus 29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup 31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning 33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations 35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver 37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets 40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk 44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning 47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil 49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership 51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity 54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure 56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility 58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership 01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate 01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

This episode of Last Call breaks down the biggest forces currently driving markets, focusing on the intersection of geopolitics, oil prices, volatility, and economic data. With a potential oil supply shock tied to global conflict, the discussion explores how rising energy prices could ripple through inflation, equity markets, and investor positioning—and why traditional signals like the unemployment rate may be giving a misleading picture of the economy. Jack and Matt are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze how oil prices above key levels could trigger major market moves, why volatility is behaving differently in this cycle, how narratives become “common knowledge” in markets, and what labor force data reveals about structural changes happening beneath the surface of the US economy. Andy Constan Twitterhttps://x.com/dampedspring Ben Hunt Twitterhttps://x.com/EpsilonTheory Brent Kochuba Twitterhttps://x.com/spotgamma Eric Pachman Twitterhttps://x.com/epachman Topics covered: Why oil above $100 could trigger a major equity selloff and volatility spike How oil acts as a tax on consumers and impacts GDP growth The relationship between oil prices, inflation, and interest rates Why supply-driven oil shocks are more dangerous than demand shocks How geopolitical conflict changes correlations between oil and volatility Why VIX can become tightly linked to the underlying crisis driver The key levels in oil that determine bullish vs bearish market outcomes Why markets may be underpricing the risks of prolonged conflict Ben Hunt’s “common knowledge” framework and narrative shifts in markets How investor behavior changes once risks become widely understood Why “buy the dip” psychology may not work in this environment How options positioning and dealer hedging flows drive short-term market moves The JP Morgan collar trade and its potential impact on market direction Why volatility may be rising faster than fundamentals justify The disconnect between market pricing and underlying macro risks Why the unemployment rate can be misleading as an economic indicator The difference between unemployment and labor force participation Structural decline in rural economies and migration to urban centers How labor force trends impact economic growth and local economies Why aggregate economic data fails to capture real-world conditions Timestamps:00:00 Oil as a tax on the economy and growth slowdown dynamics00:18 Strait of Hormuz risk and global oil supply vulnerability00:32 Why $100 oil becomes the key market breaking level00:45 Oil vs equities: why rising energy prices pressure all assets01:12 How this episode breaks down macro, narrative, and flows02:41 Andy Constan on oil shocks, inflation, and policy constraints06:08 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending07:22 Oil driven inflation and limits of central bank response09:51 Scenario analysis: oil below 90 vs above 10013:05 Is the market actually pricing in geopolitical risk?17:42 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and narrative shifts23:18 When risks go from ignored to fully understood27:44 Why consensus narratives can drive market turning points31:56 Brent Kochuba on oil and VIX correlation in crisis periods36:14 Why volatility may be underreacting to oil moves39:02 The VIX premium and signs something is breaking42:37 JP Morgan collar trade and dealer positioning impact50:58 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality58:47 Structural decline in labor force across US counties

In this episode of Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler look past the headlines to unpack what really moved markets this month. From the viral AI end of times scenario that sparked responses from Citadel, Fed Governor Waller, and Jeremy Siegel, to the growing stress in private credit and the rotation out of US mega cap stocks, this is a different kind of market wrap. Instead of recapping what the S and P 500 did, we explore what investors are actually doing with their money, how narratives shape positioning, and what the data says about whether this time is different. Featuring Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma, Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro, and Meb Faber of The Idea Farm, this episode dives into AI, software stocks, options flows, credit cycles, global equity markets, gold, and the power of base rates in investing. Main topics covered: The viral AI bear case scenario and why a fictional narrative moved real markets How investors should think in probabilities, bull cases, base cases, and bear cases What options pricing and put call ratios reveal about real fear versus social media fear The state of software stocks and whether extreme bearishness may have marked a short term bottom Private credit stress, rising default risks, and why every credit cycle ends when lenders say no more An on the ground anecdote from San Francisco illustrating how refinancing risk is playing out in real time The rotation from US mega caps into international stocks and why fiscal spending matters for equity markets Gold and gold miners as potential beneficiaries of global liquidity and currency shifts Why base rates matter when evaluating explosive AI revenue forecasts Historical lessons from the Nifty Fifty, Japan’s bubble, the dot com era, and other periods when investors believed this time is different Portfolio construction tools including diversification, rebalancing, and trend following in bubble environments Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI end of times narrative 02:16 Why investors are responding to fiction and what we can learn from it 08:00 Brent Kochuba on options flows and software stock positioning 13:00 Has extreme bearishness in software marked a bottom 19:55 Ben Hunt on private credit and the boom bust cycle 27:00 A San Francisco refinancing story and when lenders say no 33:08 Rupert Mitchell on global markets, fiscal spending, and gold 44:22 Meb Faber on base rates, bubbles, and this time is different 01:00:16 How to track AI’s real world impact in corporate data

Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way. Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven. Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward. Main Topics: • Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors• Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets• What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters• The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes• Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets• How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses• AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform• Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms Timestamps 00:00 — Intro and opening clips01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom