Advertise on podcast: The Spillover

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda   Mentioned on the Episode:   “Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F,” Economic Research Service USDA   Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,” The Anthropic Institute   Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms,” Politico   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics   Mentioned on the Episode:   Adam S. Posen, “China Still Has What America Needs,” Foreign Affairs   Adam S. Posen, “Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography,” Intereconomics   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize–winning author; staff writer, The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University   Mentioned on the Episode:   Anne Applebaum, “MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption,” The Atlantic   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters   Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab   Mentioned on the Episode:   Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times   “Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView   “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office   Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and how managing demand and boosting efficiency are critical for long-term energy security and climate progress.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback,” CFR.org   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock,” CFR.org   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come,” The Economist   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI,” The Economist   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market.   Hosts:  Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)  Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest:  Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo   Mentioned on the Episode:   Torsten Slok, “A Slower AI Payoff Would Be Everyone's Problem,” Apollo   Torsten Slok, “Monitoring the AI Trade: How Growing Debt Issuance Is Reshaping the Landscape,” Apollo   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitable American success.    Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Geopolitics of AI, Johns Hopkins University Press   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis. Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest:   Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East and codirector of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, Baker Institute   Mentioned on the Episode:   Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Jim Krane, “Maritime Chokepoints and Risks to Global Shipping and Energy Security,” Baker Institute   “China ‘Blockade Simulation’ Exposes $5 Trillion Global Danger,” Bloomberg   “Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy,” CSIS   Spencer Kimball, “Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1983,” MSN   “China Is Now the World’s Great Oil Power,” The Economist   “The Middle East and Global Energy Markets,” IEA   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture. Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Dave Walter, Today Then   Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart, The Unanchored Central Banker Tana French, The Keeper   Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance   Theo Baker, How to Rule the World   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry.   Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest: Jordan Schneider, Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk   Mentioned on the Episode: Jordan Schneider, “ChinaTalk” podcast and newsletter   “DeepSeek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race,” translation of Liang Wenfeng’s interview with Waves   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI race and how its trajectory will reshape economies, societies, and global politics.   Host:   Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Editor, Foreign Affairs   Guest:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Rahm Emanuel, Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2022–2025), Former Mayor of Chicago (2011–2019), Former White House Chief of Staff (2009–2010)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Emma Graham-Harrison, “Israeli Former Leaders and Security Chiefs Threaten Legal Action Over ‘Jewish Terrorism’,” The Guardian   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI. Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Jonathan E. Hillman, “Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.