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In this episode, Tom Vogl shares a harrowing story of an enormous avalanche that narrowly missed his group of backcountry skiers in the North Cascades. In this humble and vulnerable account, Tom reflects on how the events of the day unfolded, how plans changed, and the mindset they were in that may have contributed to the near-miss. As we explore the event, he moves on to how he has since learned and developed different habits and system approaches to be more risk-aware in the present. Tom's story helps us understand ways we can use good habits and systems to convert lucky to good! *Note - fixed the audio for this episode *

In the world of outdoor education, success often teeters on the edge of luck and skill. What happens when we experience a near miss? How do we learn from those moments that could have ended in disaster? In this episode, we'll explore a compelling story shared by risk management consultant and coach, Stuart Slay. This account highlights the critical lessons learned from incidents in outdoor programs, emphasizing the importance of planning, accountability, safety leadership and reflective practices. Were they lucky, or good?

Part II of our two part series with Kate Koons, talking about lessons learned from risk management in Antarctica and beyond. What has Kate learned from outdoor education, avalanche education, mental health training, and wilderness risk management that she has successfully adapted and applied to her field safety work in Antarctica? We also return to her story of a snowmobile incident from Part I and evaluate if they were lucky, or good. Safety Science concepts include Safety Clutter, Systems Thinking, AcciMaps, and Psychological Safety, among others.

Guest: Kate Koons In this episode, Kate Koons shares her risk management leadership experiences from Antarctica and beyond, highlighting the importance of psychological safety, planning, and communication in extreme environments. Chapters 00:00 Kate's Journey as a Learner and Mentor 02:44 Incident in Antarctica: A Case Study 10:10 Response and Recovery: What Went Well 17:34 Graceful Extensibility Built Into the Design 19:04 Emergency versus Crisis 23:32 The Importance of Psychological Safety 30:09 Competing Priorities in Scientific Field Work 32:50 How do we perceive risk?

Guest: Chris Bartram Outdoor Educator, Mountain Guide and Risk Management Consultant Chris Bartram revisits a challenging experience from early in his outdoor education career, struggling with group dynamics and threatening, disruptive behavior from a student. In revisiting the story, the conversation shifts from a simple story of blame, to a more complex story of organizational, administrative, and environmental factors that contributed to the group's challenges. Applying a systems-thinking lens, Chris explores deeper lessons learned from the event, and wraps up with focused advice for organizational leaders and managers to learn from his experience. Chapters 00:00 Introductions 01:37 Student Behavioral Challenges 04:45 Group Dynamics 07:46 Behavior Management and Health Concerns 11:57 A Brief Change in Student Behavior... 12:56 Analysis of the Incident 22:31 Were we lucky, or good? 32:32 Advice - Listening to the Front Line Workers 33:33 Positive Capacities

Episode 8 - The Costs, and Gifts, of Outdoor Incidents (Tracy Rekart) Guest: Tracy Rekart Tracy Rekart shares a powerful story of a climbing incident, lessons learned about risk, communication, and resilience. This episode explores how to handle failure, recognize biases, and pursue recovery after a critical incident occurs. Her story is filled with insights, clarity, courage, and vulnerability, all of which provide useful takeaways for outdoor & experiential educators. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest 01:12 Tracy's Climbing Incident: A Personal Story 09:00 Reflections on the Incident and Lessons Learned 12:55 Communication and Safety in Outdoor Education 17:09 The Aftermath: Recovery and Relationship Growth 19:39 A Dream of Healing 20:28 Finding a New Home and Life Choices 21:45 The Importance of Presence in Recovery 23:25 Learning from Vulnerability and Holding Space 24:43 Cognitive Biases in Outdoor Education 27:24 The Substitution Effect in Decision Making 30:26 FailSafe vs. Fail Safely 31:48 Excavating for Risks and Final Thoughts Learn more about Tracy and her work at https://www.tracyrekart.com/

Welcome to our first mini-episode, live from the lighthouse at Mukilteo, Washington State! In this brief conversation, Matt Baker-White, an early adopter of our "Lucky or Good" approach, explains the difference between focusing on outcomes versus focusing on effective processes in his work at the Wild Rockies Field Institute.

How Vulnerability and Listening to Weak Signals Can Save Lives: A Conversation with Gareth Lock  In this episode, Gareth Lock (from the Human Diver) shares a powerful personal story about a near-fatal cardiac event and explores how vulnerability, systems thinking, and recognizing weak signals can improve safety in outdoor and diving environments. Key Topics: Gareth’s personal experience with a critical cardiac event and key lessons learnedThe importance of listening to weak signals and small cues in safety managementHow vulnerability models foster a safety culture that encourages speaking upThe concept of local rationality and understanding decision-making in contextContrasting linear risk analysis with holistic systems thinking approachesThe benefits of framing risk positively: beneficial risks and growth opportunitiesFail-safe design principles: creating resilient systems that recover gracefullyThe role of cognitive biases like hindsight bias and ways to counteract themApplying safety science concepts to outdoor education and adventure activitiesThe significance of language and shared vocabulary in safety conversations Resources & Links: Gareth Lock - The Human Diver

In the world of adaptive outdoor education, the balance between safety and adventure is tenuous. One common challenge that many organizations face is the fear of failure among staff, especially in high-consequence situations. In this post, we’ll explore insights shared by Jaime Overmeyer of the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center on how to transform the stigma of failure into a powerful tool for growth, confidence, and innovation. By creating a balance between clear policies with trust and flexibility for innovation, Jaime describes how she has built an organizational mindset of "failing forward" on the pathway of continuous improvement.

SUMMARY  This episode explores the impact of climate change on outdoor and experiential education, emphasizing proactive risk management and organizational resilience. Guest Shana Tarter shares insights on adapting to climate threats, rethinking risk assessment, and implementing strategic planning to proactively manage risk and promote mission continuity. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest 01:36 The Opportunity to Be Good Rather than Lucky 02:17 Impact of Climate Change on Outdoor Programs 04:24 The Dichotomy of Luck and Good 05:43 Recognizing Slow-Moving Threats 07:41 Lessons from COVID-19 for Climate Adaptation 08:48 Mental Models and Sunk Cost Bias 10:24 Incentives for Change in Risk Management 12:59 Evolving Risk Assessment Models 14:30 Dynamic Risk Assessment in Climate Change 18:22 Collaboration in Decision-Making 20:12 Navigating the Yellow Zone of Risk 21:04 Proactive Approaches to Risk Management 23:56 Operational Resilience and Planning 26:04 Informed Consent and Communication 27:54 Moving from Lucky to Good 28:19 Final Thoughts and Action Steps RESOURCES Wilderness Climate Action Group - https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/ Journal Article:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526

Guest: Dan Veenhuizen What happens when highly trained avalanche professionals get caught in an avalanche of their own?  What were the factors that set them up to fail, and what were the good habits and practices that helped to mitigate the impact?  ​ Join us for a curious, humble examination of the lessons learned from this incident - and how we might apply these lessons in other aspects of our lives and outdoor adventures.   ​ Were they lucky, or were they good?   Key Topics Dan’s personal avalanche accident story and the sequence of eventsHow terrain configuration and wind slabs contributed to the avalancheThe importance of probabilistic hazard assessment and recognizing changing conditionsThe role of heuristics such as social proof, confirmation bias, and familiarity in decision-makingGroup dynamics and the influence of expert familiarity on safety judgmentsStrategies for building safety routines: intentional checkpoints and debriefingThe value of modeling vulnerability and honest communication in safety cultureThe shift in avalanche education from terrain to decision-making and group psychologyConcepts of fail safe vs. fail safe design in outdoor risk managementContinuous learning and promoting a culture of sharing near misses and mistakesResources & LinksThe North American Avalanche Danger ScaleICSP Conference (International Snow Science Workshop)Ian McCammon and Sarah Boilen's work on field debriefsCanadian Avalanche Association CurriculumHeuristics and Decision Making in the Context of Avalanche Safety

What happens when a seemingly benign activity, one that has been done many times before, drifts into riskier terrain than usual? And how do some decisions and factors that occurred earlier on the program amplify the impact of this unexpected event? Join outdoor risk consultant and author Deb Ajango, who shares the story of an incident she was brought in to review with a school that experienced a snow shelter (quinzhee) collapse on some of their participants. What role did luck and other factors play in this unfortunate event?

In this episode, Norm Eckman shares his evolution in outdoor education, emphasizing the importance of focusing on what instructors can control—structure, presence, supervision, and involvement—to evaluate course success and prevent burnout. The discussion explores safety models, organizational learning, and the continuous pursuit of improvement in outdoor programs. See other episodes and share your story at www.luckyorgoodpodcast.com

Guest: Tamara Walker A climber's terrifying solo climb down steep ice, and what she learned from this experience. Discover a deeply personal story of mountain climbing that explores the interplay of luck, skill, and psychological resilience. This episode offers valuable insights into managing fear, decision-making under pressure, and how past experiences shape our responses in high-stakes environments. Was she lucky, or was she good?