Advertise on podcast: Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of the US programme. Together they discuss what the US midterm results mean for the war in Iran. On November 3rd, American voters inflicted a spectacular drubbing on the Republican Party, with the Democrats winning control of Congress. The Democratic Party picked up Senate seats in usually safe red states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, and will hold its largest House majority in nearly two decades. Donald Trump was quick to distance himself from the outcome, claiming that the midterms were not a referendum on him or his policies. Vice-president J.D. Vance, by contrast, conceded that “the reason we lost is the war”, referring to the administration’s ongoing conflict with Iran. But Trump has said he would “do [the war] again” and is apparently considering a new round of escalation. Alarmingly, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson also claimed that the president “may be within days of launching a nuclear strike.” This week, Mark, Ellie and Jeremy discuss what the midterms mean for American politics and the war in Iran. What factors led to these results? What does the new political make-up of America mean for Trump’s war? And what is the current consensus on what Trump might do now? This podcast episode was recorded on November 5th 2026. Bookshelf: Two tracks to Tehran: The new efforts to stop another US-Iran war, by Ellie Geranmayeh Hold the obituaries: Trump is still the president, by Jeremy Shapiro Biden’s Choice by Ben Rhodes Athens and Sparta: The Rivalry that Shaped Ancient Greece, by Adrian Goldsworthy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Nevada Joan Lee, a policy fellow in ECFR’s US programme, and Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow in the American Statecraft program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they discuss what the imminent midterms mean for American foreign policy until the end of Donald Trump’s second term—and for Democratic foreign policy in the future. The US midterm elections take place on November 3rd, with Democrats hoping to win back the House of Representatives, and perhaps even the Senate. America’s global allies, however, will have to wait and see whether a Democratic Congress would be able to change America’s chaotic and increasingly predatory foreign policy. The main question is: what kind of foreign policy will the Democrats implement if the party wins back the presidency in 2028? This week, Mark, Nevada and Stephen discuss what is at stake in the US midterm elections and beyond. To what extent is foreign policy playing a role in the electoral races? Could the Democratic Party manage to take the Senate as well as the House of Representatives? And what would a Democratic win mean for Europe? This podcast episode was recorded on October 26th 2026. Bookshelf: After the midterms: What a volatile US and an embattled Democratic Party mean for Europe, by Célia Belin and Majda Ruge A Democratic win isn’t enough: How Europe can prepare for Trump beyond the midterms, by Nevada Joan Lee Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy, by Stephen Wertheim Life of the party: Democrats and the search for a post-Trump future, by Célia Belin, Chris Herrmann, Nevada Joan Lee America's Middle East: The Ruination of a Region, by Marc Lynch Retrench, Defend, Compete: Securing America's Future Against a Rising China, by Charles L. Glaser Moral Politics: How Liberals and Conservatives Think, Third Edition, by George Lakoff The Anthropocene Reviewed, by John Green Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss how Chinese industrial overcapacity is threatening European deindustrialisation—and what Europe can do about it. Over the summer, Europe’s approach to China shifted markedly. At the June 2026 European Council, leaders were largely united in seeing the surge of Chinese exports as a serious threat to European industry. They also tasked the European Commission to make one last attempt to negotiate a trade deal with Beijing. Days before the talks began, a leaked paper co-authored by France and Germany set out a tougher agenda for the EU’s China policy. On October 9th, after two days of negotiations in Beijing, the EU’s trade and economic security commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, announced that the first result was volume limits on hybrid vehicles, the biggest problem for Europe’s car industry, and that China has accepted the proposal. This week, the European Council in Brussels is returning to the issue, and Mark and Andrew discuss where the EU-China trade talks stand. What is behind the Franco-German paper? What options does the EU have to deal with the China shock 2.0? And what is at stake for Europe’s economy? This podcast episode was recorded on October 16th 2026. Bookshelf: Institutional Genes: Origins of China's Institutions and Totalitarianism, by Chenggang Xu The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Guntram Wolf, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor of economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, and Pierre Heilbronn, former vice-president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and France’s former special envoy for Ukraine’s relief and reconstruction. Together, they discuss the European debate around the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Every seven years, EU member states agree on the MFF—but talks to plan the 2028-2034 edition have created two camps. On one side is the “friends of cohesion”, who want to protect money for poorer regions and farmers. On the other is the “frugals”, net contributors led by Germany that want a smaller budget focused on defence and competitiveness. On October 10th, the Irish presidency tabled a compromise to cut the commission’s proposal of almost €2 trillion by about 8%, at the cost of competitiveness, foreign aid and emergency funds. It would leave farmer subsidies and cohesion funds untouched, however. EU leaders are now meeting in Brussels on October 15th-16th, with the MFF negotiations expected to reach a decisive phase in the coming weeks. In this week’s episode, Mark, Guntram and Pierre discuss how the EU budget is put together, and why this round is proving so hard to close. Can the two camps find common ground? Where do negotiations stand today, and what could help clear the way to an agreement? And what is at stake for Europeans competitiveness? Bookshelf: On Xi Jinping. How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, by Kevin Rudd A Certain Idea of France: The Life of Charles de Gaulle, by Julian Jackson Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In late September, 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal was evicted from the Madrid flat she had lived in for seven decades, sparking nationwide protests over Spain’s housing crisis. Pedro Sánchez’s government responded with two emergency housing decrees which Congress rejected on October 2nd. Three days later, the prime minister dissolved parliament and called for a snap election on November 29th. Sánchez has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before, but the polls are pointing towards a PP–Vox coalition that could bring the far right into government for the first time since the return of democracy. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs, the head of Madrid office and policy fellow at ECFR, along with Nacho Torreblanca, a distinguished policy fellow at the geoeconomics and technology programme and senior adviser to the Madrid office. Together, they discuss whether Sánchez’s gamble will pay off and what it means for Europe. Why did Sánchez call the election now? Where do the polls stand? And what are the central issues that Spaniards will vote on? Bookshelf: “Solos en el mundo” by Arancha González Laya “Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI” by Yuval Noah Harari Update: This podcast was recorded on October 7th. Since then, Maricarmen Abascal died in hospital at the age of 87. In addition, Spain’s trade unions have called a general strike over housing for November 11th, just weeks before the vote. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In September 2025, Binyamin Netanyahu told Israelis their country was in “a sort of isolation” and would need to become a “super-Sparta”: its economy would have “autarkic characteristics” and its arms industry would be able to produce what it needs. This vision of Israel is a long way from the close ties to the West the country’s founders foresaw. Beth Oppenheim’s new web special for ECFR argues that illiberal and ethno-nationalist forces are remaking Israel in their image, in a shift that runs deeper than electoral politics—and that will outlast Netanyahu. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Beth, policy fellow with ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, along with Ariel David, PhD candidate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Neri Zilber, a journalist and analyst who covers Israel for the Financial Times and hosts the “Israel Policy Forum” podcast. Together, they discuss competing ideas of Israel and what they mean for Europe. What are the big ideas defining national identity and politics in Israel? What is Israel’s vision for the Middle East? And how do Israel’s ascendant camps see Europe? Bookshelf: “The ideas of Israel” by Beth Oppenheim “Mother Mary Comes to Me” by Arundhati Roy The works of Michel Houellebecq “6:29 Anatomy of a Failure” by Amos Harel “The World of Yesterday” by Stefan Zweig Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution in Washington, to discuss a recent policy brief for ECFR, authored alongside Evren Balta, professor of international relations at Özyeğin University in Istanbul. In their brief, Aslı and Evren argue that Turkey is an “embedded outsider”. It maintains relations with Moscow and other Western adversaries, but is also a NATO state with the alliance’s second-largest army; it supports Ukraine and is technically an applicant for EU membership. And nowhere has this embedded outsider status been more apparent than at the NATO summit hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July. The Turkish president gave visiting leaders a Turkish-made revolver, loaded with live ammunition: a gift no one could accept from an ally no one can place. In this week’s episode, Mark and Aslı explore Turkey’s unique position in European and global politics. Together they discuss Turkish autonomy, its relationship with NATO, Russia and the EU, and how Europe can better engage with such a complex actor. How aligned—or misaligned—is Turkey with its Western allies? What role does it play in Ukrainian and Black Sea diplomacy? And to what extent does a shared agenda exist between Ankara and Europe? Bookshelf: An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Evren Balta Theo of Golden by Allen Levi Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss the mounting pressures facing Ukraine as it enters another wartime winter. Despite Ukraine’s success in disrupting Russian logistics and energy infrastructure, Russia has intensified its attacks on cities, energy networks and civilian targets, while Kyiv faces growing domestic political and economic strains. Jana explains how shortages of air-defence interceptors, political infighting, corruption investigations and economic challenges are converging at a particularly difficult moment for Ukraine. She also examines Russia’s escalating hybrid attacks across Europe and how Europeans can strengthen their resilience—and Ukraine’s defences. Together, Mark and Jana assess Ukraine’s ability to withstand these overlapping crises, the future of European support and the role Ukraine could play in Europe’s long-term security architecture. As Russia raises the pressure both on and off the battlefield, can Ukraine and its allies maintain the unity needed to hold the line? This podcast episode was recorded on September 16th 2026. Bookshelf Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy, by Julia Ioffe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Cary Fowler, founder and president of the Food Security Leadership Council and former US global food security envoy, and Jim O’Brien, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.  As conflict, climate change and geopolitical fragmentation converge, there is a growing risk of a global food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to disrupt grain exports, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting fertiliser shipments, and a potentially severe El Niño threatens drought and falling harvests across parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America.  These overlapping pressures will impact hundreds of millions of people who are already food insecure. While mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impact of food insecurity—for example, in 2022, the UN, the US, the EU and regional actors worked together to keep grain flowing from Ukraine and avert a broader catastrophe—many of the conditions that enabled cooperation then are weaker today. This has created a dangerous gap in global leadership.  Together, Mark, Cary and Jim explore how a new international coalition could prevent millions more people from falling into hunger. They discuss the roles of Europe, the UN and major powers such as China, India and Russia; the case for humanitarian ceasefires covering grain exports and fertiliser shipments; and why food security should be treated as a central pillar of global security.  Can governments overcome geopolitical rivalry to address a crisis that no one wants? How severe could the impact of El Niño become in already vulnerable regions? What would a ceasefire covering grain and fertiliser look like in practice? And can Europe coordinate a global response when other leaders are absent?  This podcast episode was recorded on September 9th 2026.  Bookshelf   Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power and Persistence, Wendy Sherman  The Growth of Biological Thought, Ernst Mayr  The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach  China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping, Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung  Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis, Cary Fowler, Jim O'Brien and Jana Kobzova  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, in a World in 30 Minutes Emergency Room episode to discuss the latest in German politics. The AfD’s win in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt was widely expected, but the scale of the result and the collapse of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have still shocked Berlin. For the first time since the second world war, a far-right party is within reach of governing a German Bundesland. Jana unpacks the AfD’s possible paths to power, the pressure on Merz and his grand coalition, and what the result says about the far right’s continued rise in Europe. Why does an election in a state of two million people matter so much for a country of 84 million? Can the AfD govern without a formal coalition partner, and would CDU lawmakers break the historic “firewall” to make that possible? Why is the party still treated as beyond the pale, even as it leads national polls? And should Europe prepare for a Germany too absorbed in its own crisis to lead? This episode was recorded on September 7th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme, to unpack a volatile new chapter in the confrontation between the United States and Iran. After months of managed escalation, military strikes have resumed and President Donald Trump has launched an ambitious new sanctions package, dubbed an economic “D-Day”, aimed at squeezing Tehran into submission. Ellie argues that Washington has returned to a familiar strategy of maximum pressure, betting that unprecedented economic isolation and a blockade of Iranian exports will either force the regime to make major concessions or trigger domestic unrest. But Tehran appears determined to hold out, relying on sanctions-evasion networks, regional diplomacy and the belief that the US will struggle to sustain its campaign over the long term. As both sides continue limited military operations while keeping channels for negotiation open, the prospect of a comprehensive deal remains elusive. The conversation also explores the domestic pressures facing Iran's leadership, from a shrinking economy and growing public dissatisfaction to the threat of renewed nationwide protests. Mark and Ellie examine whether economic hardship could destabilise the regime, why Iranian leaders remain sceptical of American commitments and how internal politics in both Washington and Tehran are shaping the path ahead. Finally, they discuss the wider regional and European implications of the conflict. How are Gulf states positioning themselves between the US and Iran? What risks does the confrontation pose to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz? And can European governments still play a meaningful diplomatic role as tensions rise and fears grow that the Iran conflict could become increasingly entangled with the war in Ukraine? This podcast episode was recorded on September 3rd 2026. Bookshelf Hillbilly Elegy, by J.D. Vance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at ECFR, to unpack a turbulent summer in Israel and the Palestinian territories. While Palestinian factions in Gaza have agreed in principle to decommission their weapons , the proposal faces significant obstacles, not least opposition from the Israeli government. Meanwhile settler violence is surging and settlement construction is spreading, redrawing the map faster than any negotiation could. Hugh explains why a sustainable ceasefire cannot rely on disarmament alone but requires a broader political process that addresses the future governance of Gaza and creates a pathway towards a two-state solution. He also explores why developments in the West Bank could prove just as decisive as those in Gaza, and what role Europe can play in responding to settlement expansion and growing instability. Against this backdrop, Israelis are preparing to head to the polls on October 27th . Mark and Hugh examine the state of the race, the challenge facing Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister and whether a new government would bring meaningful policy change, or simply a different style of leadership. How much do Gaza and the West Bank matter to Israeli voters? Could an opposition victory create space for greater pragmatism? And what would that mean for Europe's approach to the conflict? This podcast episode was recorded on August 24th 2026. Bookshelf The Revolutionaries: The Story of the Extremists Who Hijacked the 1970s, by Jason Burke. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s DARE* initiative, and Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to examine the growing impact of the “China shock 2.0” on Germany and Europe.  A new wave of Chinese competition, driven by overcapacity and state-backed industrial strength, is hitting sectors such as car manufacturing, chemicals and machine tools. Germany is at the epicentre, with mounting job losses raising questions about Europe’s long-term economic resilience and competitiveness. The crisis is reshaping German politics, exposing government divisions and putting pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz ahead of September’s potentially divisive regional elections. Together, Mark, Janka and Andrew discuss the policy options being considered in Brussels and in European capitals—from emergency trade measures to new industrial strategies. Can Europe protect its industrial base without triggering a damaging escalation with China? Is Germany able to lead a coherent European response amid its own political turbulence? This podcast episode was recorded 12th August 2026. Bookshelf China Shock 2.0: The Cost of Germany’s Complacency, by Brad Setser and Sander Tordoir The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small Dear Britain, by Annette Dittert  [AS1]Just flagging as we usually have the exact date (or do we not want to do it this time?) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jörg Lau, international correspondent at Die Zeit and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to explore the political turmoil in Germany ahead of an electoral autumn. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is becoming increasingly unpopular: it faces collapsing approval ratings, growing tension within the governing coalition and mounting pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). As regional elections approach, Jana argues that Germany’s traditional parties face difficult choices that could reshape the country’s political landscape, while Jörg discusses what the AfD’s rise means for Germany. A “firewall” has kept mainstream parties from cooperating with the far right in the post-war period—but Jörg reflects on the strain this is under, and whether the AfD’s first taste of regional power could transform German politics. Together, Mark, Jörg and Jana assess the prospects for Merz’s leadership, the future of the CDU and whether Germany’s political centre can withstand such pressure. Are established parties capable of renewing themselves? What happens if the AfD makes gains at the regional level? And what would prolonged instability in Berlin mean for Europe? This podcast episode was recorded on August 12th 2026. Bookshelf The Names, by Florence Knapp The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran, by Shida Bazyar The Invite, by Olivia Wilde Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Adriana Abdenur, a Brazilian policy expert and co-president of the Global Fund for a New Economy, and Jorge Castañeda, former foreign minister of Mexico and professor at Sciences Po, to explore debates about development and ideas of strategic autonomy across Latin America. Jorge explains why China’s role is varied across the region, arguing that Mexico and much of Central America remain deeply constrained by their economic ties to the US. Adriana discusses Brazil’s long tradition of strategic autonomy, describing how policymakers engage with China as both an economic partner and a source of ideas on development, technology and global governance. Together, Mark, Adriana and Jorge explore how intensifying US-China competition is reshaping the region’s choices. Can Latin American countries balance relations with both powers? Is China a model, a market or simply another partner in a multipolar world? And what does strategic autonomy look like in an increasingly coercive geopolitical environment? This podcast episode was recorded on July 31st 2026. Bookshelf Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option, by Carlos Ominami, Jorge Heine and Carlos Fortín Manifesto Antropófago (Cannibal Manifesto), by Oswald de Andrade Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.