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Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner at Oxbow Advisors, says that he expects the market to be setting new highs but to challenge some serious lows, hurt by high valuations, current economic conditions and the election cycle. "This will not be a real strong year for the market, and if you make money, you will have to know where to invest and when to invest," Oakley says. He notes that he is more invested internationally in the last 18 months than he has been in years, due largely to lower valuations abroad, and he is also keeping some powder dry expecting better opportunities when the market gets shaken through patches of volatility. Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that  increases in default rates are more of a return to normal than a sign of trouble for business-development companies or the economy. Between a bankruptcy and fraud case like First Brands and softness in the software business, Oberbeck thinks that recent activity is more a hangover coming from a time of particularly low defaults, rather than a sign of something bad building up. In the Market Call, Simon Lack, managing partner of SL Advisors — which oversees the American Energy Independence Index — talks about energy and energy infrastructure stocks, as well as how current events in Venezuela are likely to affect oil stocks and energy markets.

Introducing Advocating for Undocumented Immigrants with United We Dream (ICYMI) from Getting Better with Jonathan Van Ness. Follow the show: Getting Better with Jonathan Van Ness Choose Courage, Build Community, and Take Action to Create Change…  ICYMI: JVN sits down with Cristina Jiménez Moreta to talk about her new book Dreaming of Home: How We Turn Fear Into Pride, Power, and Real Change and the work being done at United We Dream, the country’s largest youth-led immigrant organization – which Cristina co-founded. Plus our breakdown of the Tony awards and our HBOTW! Cristina Jiménez Moreta is an award-winning community organizer, political strategist, prominent advocate for social justice, and author. She is the Co-Founder and former Executive Director of United We Dream (UWD), the nation’s largest immigrant youth-led organization. Cristina immigrated to the U.S. from Ecuador with her family in 1998, seeking a better life. She grew up undocumented in Queens, New York, and has since become a powerful voice in the fight for immigrant rights and equity. Cristina is currently a Distinguished Lecturer at the City College of New York’s Colin Powell School, where she also co-teaches Leadership for Democracy and Social Justice (LDSJ). Under her leadership, UWD grew into a formidable network of over one million members, shifting the national conversation around immigration and helping secure policy changes at both the local and national levels. Cristina played a pivotal role in United We Dream’s successful campaign that led to the implementation of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) under President Obama. The Monday Edit, now on YouTube!  Check out the JVN Patreon for exclusive content, bonus episodes, and more! www.patreon.com/jvn  Follow us on Instagram @gettingbetterwithjvn Jonathan on Instagram @jvn and senior producer Chris @amomentlikechris  Senior Producer, Chris McClure Producer, Editor & Engineer is Nathanael McClure Production support from Chad Hall Our theme music is also composed by Nathanael McClure. Curious about bringing your brand to life on the show? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices DISCLAIMER: Please note, this is an independent podcast episode not affiliated with, endorsed by, or produced in conjunction with the host podcast feed or any of its media entities. The views and opinions expressed in this episode are solely those of the creators and guests. For any concerns, please reach out to [email protected].

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that many investors have staked their financial lives on the stock market continuing the kind of gains it has posted since the Great Financial Crisis nearly 20 years ago. He worries that that investors haven't saved for retirement or college tuition in a world where the market doesn't deliver something close to expectations; with that in mind — and in a world where valuations are stretched and concerns are abundant — he says investors need to prepare for uncertainty, and to decide how they would feel if the market tanks and what they could do to get more comfortable with the market's potential to peak and take a protracted turn for the worse. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits a fund with an options overlay strategy — one he picked as ETF of the Week in 2024 when it was new — and discusses the success investors have found with it. Plus, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, returns to the Market Call to talk stocks.

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that earnings growth will be the "defining driver" of market performance in 2026, and would be the factor to watch if you could only see one. PNC is forecasting earnings growth of nearly 15% this year, "which is darned good enough to keep the market rally engaged, even with valuations being a headwind." Agati notes that while there is a "purple haze of policy uncertainty" surrounding the market, she does not expect those concerns to derail the market, noting that accelerating earnings and economic growth should power through the headlines. In the Market Call, Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager at the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF, brings his "aggressively cautious" approach to stocks, talking about where to be opportunistic now. Emily Fanous discusses the IPX1031 annual Travel Outlook survey, which showed that 94% of Americans plan to travel this year — with more than 40% planning to travel more than they did a year ago — but a large chunk of them will have their memories of those trips stirred by lingering credit card or buy-now, pay-later bills. 

Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital, is expecting double-digit earnings for stocks generally — but only single-digit growth for the Mag 7 — and he says the broader market with moderate growth and strong economic stimulus should roll on. Ablin entered the year expecting " double-barrel stimulus" from tax refunds created by tax cuts and interest rate cuts, but now that the next Federal Reserve chairman has been selected and that he is more hawkish than expected, he sees fewer rate cuts and a market that is steady but not spectacular. One are that has been spectacular, gold, has Ablin on edge, as he says the precious metal "is telling us that, by the end of 2027, inflation will be 10 percent." He thinks that's too high, which is why he expects gold to correct. Also expecting a correction is Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., who says the firm's proprietary Lowry Market Health Score is in "moderately strong territory" leaving "more to go in this bull market," and yet he makes it clear that after a few more weeks or months of the positive he "could see a pretty sizeable correction." Sean Mullaney discusses his new book, "Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement," which helps workers decide when and how they can afford to pull the plug on their working career without waiting to full retirement age to do it. 

Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer, at Zuma Wealth says it is understandable that investors are nervous with a lot of geopolitical worries and headlines on top of a market winning streak that can't go on forever, but she says that a strong earnings outlook, a healthy economy and the market's hot start to 2026 have her constructive and positive on the year ahead, expecting more good news without the negatives of recession or a bear market. She is urging clients to go back to basics to calm their nerves, noting that the market is going through a sharp rotation away from a few leaders to a broader outlook where investors will benefit from diversification and patience. With Valentine's Day ahead this week, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, eschews the usual worrisome pick for The Danger Zone, and instead goes for something much sweeter, a home-building company that he says is particularly attractive now. With jobs and inflation data on tap for this week — and the stock market coming off a big downturn in software stocks — Vijay Marolia discusses investors' nerves and how some might be letting headlines get in the way of good long-term buying opportunities in software, and whether they will be distracted by the jobs and inflation numbers released this week. Plus, he delves into "bets" versus "predictions" and more in "The Week That Is." Plus, Chuck digs in deeper to his Super Bowl jinx -- the trend he has identified in companies that buy Super Bowl ads within seven years of their initial public offering -- to discuss which companies from Sunday's big game might be losers in the market moving forward.

Steven Dover, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, says that while the economy generally looks positive, he sees it in a "rough spot, especially with those Mag 7 or A.I.-related stocks," which he said have gotten "way ahead of themselves." Dover, who also serves as head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, says he doesn't see an old-fashioned recession happening, but thinks there may be rolling recessions impacting specific industries and sectors. That could lead to a situation "where the average looks great but for a whole lot of people it isn't good," the K-shaped downturn that impacts people who are lacking assets the most. Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, gives his outlook for the private credit and lending space, and notes that there could be some challenges for business development companies and private lenders late in the current economic cycle because returns from private credit generally have been declining. That has meant single-digit leveraged returns, Brown says, so "Investors are not happy." That, in turn, has led to redemptions in private funds and falling stock prices. Still, Brown says, that creates opportunities, which he sees being particularly abundant in the technology sector and amid continued capital expenditure spending. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which shows that on a short-term basis, the recent market moves against stocks and precious metals have reduced bullishness. Neutral sentiment is on the rise, and while the market still has a bullish bias, Rotblut says the change will be worth watching as the market digests current headlines.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that while the stock market has blown past multiple red flags and warning signs, investors should not be acting as if indicators like an inverted yield curve, events like war or tariffs, or a simple market winning streak are leading to some sort of fast market shift. Rather than getting caught up in the next news story, Ritholtz says to focus on diversification and common-sense long-term investing strategies, and he notes that for all of the reasons investors are nervous, he would focus on earnings, noting that if he had only one variable to look at to forecast the market's potential, it would be earnings. So long as that trend continues — and he expects it to — the market should keep gaining ground. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to emerging markets with his ETF of the Week, picking a classic, low-cost, long-term fund that he says can be a core holding for investors looking to increase foreign exposure. Plus, Chuck discusses comments by Elon Musk suggesting that Americans really don't need to save for retirement any more. As ridiculous as that might sound, the principal Musk is relying on is called "universal high income," and it suggests that retirement savings won't be necessary because the abundance created by productivity gains created by artificial intelligence will make it so that all future material needs are easily met. While that outcome is possible, Chuck explains why you might still want to fund your Roth IRA for a while.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, worries that there may be "an upside CPI surprise" coming in the second half of the year, but he also says there is "the risk of upside economic surprises" now, evidenced in the market action, where he sees basic materials, energy and "things that come out of the ground" like commodities and oil leading the way. Those are assets that normally lead late in the economic cycle, and he expects them to stay strong through 2026. Weniger also discusses why President Trump's recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has Wall Street scrambling with changing expectations and outlooks. Chuck goes off the news with Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com, to discuss his recent piece on why "focusing on the break-even point" leads many Americans to make the wrong Social Security decision. Powell notes that break-even analysis is mostly used to formulate a bet on longevity, rather than focusing on the income and inflation-protection elements that Social Security is built to provide.  In the Book Interview, Becky Robison, author of "My Parents Are Dead: What Now? A Panic-Free Guide to the Practicalities of Death," discusses the challenges facing most people as they face, unprepared, the mortality of their parents. Robison discusses her own experience after the death of her parents which, she notes, was way different than what she was prepared for by years of watching tv and movies that had her expecting a neat, tidy and orderly process.  

Emily Roland, co-chief investment officer at Manulife John Hancock Investments, says that she may be forced to believe her eyes and is whispering to investors "This time is different," which are famously described as the most dangerous words in investing. With leading economic indicators negative for 38 months, the long time when the yield curve was inverted, three months of negative job growth and more; all of those are supposed indicators of trouble and recession, but the difference has been that the market has overcome those concerns. Roland is encouraging investors to resist the urge to trade on political headlines, or to get caught up in "fear of missing out" and jumping into parts of the market that are moving more on sentiment than fundamentals. She says it is a back-to-basics market, where investors might want to look more toward bonds as a backstop to high valuations and headline-induced nervousness. Brad Lamensdorf, portfolio manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says investors should be more nervous than they seem right now, because classic signs of trouble are building. Those factors include low money-market balances but high balances on margin accounts, suggesting that investors "are extremely aggressive and very, very off-balance here." Lamensdorf says that the market's current dividend yields and high prices make it the market "very, very expensive," at levels where some investors may feel they're not being rewarded for taking risk, a condition that is usually happening at times when bull markets are ending. In the Market Call, Brian Huckstep, chief investment officer at Advyzon Investment Management, discusses ETFs and mutual funds, which structure he prefers and which parts of the market stand out to him now.

Mo Haghbin, managing director for strategic ETFs at ProShares says it's not unusual to have a strong equity market when there's accommodative central bank policy, and he's expecting that to continue even with the Fed under direction of new chairman nominee Kevin Warsh. Haghbin says "It's a little bit of a Goldilocks situation right now," with the next year being an environment that seems "just right," and therefore is not particularly vulnerable to a bear market or recession. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses spiking volatility that saw precious metals reach new highs before backing away from them, looks at mixed earnings results for four Big Tech names, and discusses the merger that Elon Musk is proposing for himself — combining SpaceX with xAI — and why the seemingly strange deal isn't actually weird. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, looks at a boutique mutual fund that on the surface looks decent but which he says holds too many dangerous stocks, which he thinks will turn three years of super-hot performance back into a long-term record of feast-or-famine results. Plus, Chuck looks at the recently announced retirement of Will Danoff, manager of Fidelity's Contrafund since 1990, and how investors should evaluate their next response, a next move Chuck himself is considering as a shareholder in Danoff's hugely successful fund.

Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, says that 2025 was a great year for the market, but that has the market priced to where investors should expect to capture earnings growth and interest income. "If earnings come in 10 to 15 percent and you get that but nothing else, that's still pretty good," Williams says. "If you get 4.5 to 5 percent on bonds — without much help from the Fed — that's not so bad either." It's about preparing for "less," rather than preparing for some sort of market nightmare, Williams says. In The NAVigator segment, Nick Robinson, deputy head of global emerging market equities at Aberdeen Investments, discusses how the artificial intelligence wave that has pushed domestic stock markets to record highs is readily apparent around the world — including in countries that are not necessarily synonymous with technology — and that the capital expenditure wave should continue to power emerging markets, especially if foreign companies can monetize the potential gains created by AI. He also discusses how markets are weathering geopolitical events and why they can continue to overcome worrisome headlines. In the Market Call, Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management — manager of the Zacks Earnings Consistent Portfolio, among other ETfs — talks about the shifts he is seeing now in the markets, but how a focus on persistent earnings can smooth out the ride of a nervous, high-growth market.

Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the economy should perform well in 2026, with the mid-term election feeling more like a presidential election because fiscal and monetary policy should be aligned to prove something to voters, rather than the typical mid-term doldrums. Still, Wang believes that the wealth effect that has kept the economy out of a recession would be threatened by a market downturn, which means that a bear market would likely cause a recession. Wang says the near-term biggest macro risk is outside the U.S., most notably rising bond yields in Japan that, if they keep rising, "would cause a major disruption in this global risk rally."  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to small-caps this week, picking a Fidelity fund that takes a strategic, computer-driven, broadly diversified approach to the sector, providing moderately active management rather than the "significantly aggressive active management" that comes with a bottoms-up gunslinger picking stocks. In the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners, discusses his approach to stock picking, melding top-down macro analysis with thematic investing before finishing with a bottoms-up analysis to confirm his direction.

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says the market entered the year "with some pretty nice tailwinds all hitting at the same time," which has the economy set up for growth that he thinks will push the stock market to its fourth straight year of double-digit gains. Ladner recognizes that the market is enjoying current conditions, but he doesn't see major risks as being high-probability events this year, and instead finds his discomfort and nervousness in riding along with the consensus that conditions are so good. In the Book Interview, Danny Funt discusses "Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling, which looks at the evolution of the gaming industry to the detriment of most people attracted to it, and the worrisome methods that the industry's power players are using to bleed sports gamblers dry. Jaime Seale discusses the Millennial Home Buyer Report for 2026 out from Clever Real Estate, which found that 40% of millennial home buyers say they 're desperate to buy a home this year, so much so that a high percentage of them would spend half or more of their monthly income on a home. That's bad financial math, which shows why so many feel the American Dream of home ownership is slipping away.

 Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says he is watching but not worried about geopolitics, the interest rate environment and more because the current business cycle is strong enough to continue through the year. Levitt entered the year with a mindset of rebalancing and diversifying to take advantage of areas like international investments and small-caps that have been underweighted in portfolios, and he says foreign stocks should benefit all year from weaker dollar conditions. Dollar strength is one of four key market signals — corporate bond spreads, transportation stocks and inflation expectations are the others — that he is watching right now as gauges of continued market and economic strength. Brian Moody, executive editor at Kelley Blue Book, discusses price trends among new cars — elevated, but stable — used cars and what consumers can do in an effort to get better prices no matter what they are buying. He also discusses Chuck's recent search for and purchase of a new car, and talks briefly about what he drives and why. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses how the January 2026 Beer Purchasers Index doesn't show an end to the "beer recession," he was seeing in the numbers last fall, but it does show that sales have started to pick up from levels that had gotten ugly. That resurgence — a forward- looking indicator since it measures the sale of beer that will be available to the public in several months — could be a sign that economic consumption could be up in 2026, a phenomenon not just limited to beer.