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Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than the safeguards around it, and industry self-regulation is "not sufficient any longer". That is according to Brad Smith, president of Microsoft. Speaking to Will Bain on BBC's Big Boss Interview, Mr Smith said the world should worry more about AI safety than about any previous generation of digital technology in his 33 years in the industry. Microsoft is one of the world's largest AI developers and an investor in OpenAI. Mr Smith's comments set out a position that goes beyond the "tremendous self-regulation" praised in a recent White House AI accord. "Right now I'd argue that AI is moving forward faster than the speed of safety," Mr Smith said. "That's not good for the protection of the public. It's not even good for the industry itself." Mr Smith set out three measures. The first is a "safety brake or emergency brake" on any AI system controlling autonomous devices or critical infrastructure, an idea often described as a kill switch within the industry. He said it should sit in the companies running the models and in the cloud infrastructure they run on. The second is a legal obligation to report incidents: if AI agents "break loose" and break into systems, the victims should be told, as they are after a data breach. The third measure, which he called the biggest and most important, is whether government evaluators should have to sign off frontier models before release. "Just remember, right now, your washing machine is subject to more safety rules than AI," he said. He added that cartons of milk and passenger aircraft are subject to inspection and certification. He said the UK was the country best placed to lead. The AI Security Institute, he said, has the strongest technical capability in the world to test AI models: "It's the United Kingdom. They are the best." In his account, the US began building similar capability and then slowed down. Asked about Anthropic declining UK testing of one of its models, he said the question now was when developers should be required to satisfy a government regulator that a product is safe before it is released. He described Britain as "a bridge across the Atlantic and across the English Channel". He also noted that in Washington, people "don't look at London the same way they look at Brussels". Mr Smith also responded to Vice President JD Vance, who had accused Microsoft of abusing the H-1B visa system more than any other US company. Mr Smith said the vice president's staff "got the maths wrong". He said about 80% of the company's 6,000 visa applications were for existing employees, every green card applicant was already employed by Microsoft, and the company hired 9,000 Americans last year. On data centres, he said the cost of new grid capacity "should not be the neighbours… it should be the industry itself". Presenter: Will Bain Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones

Negative perceptions of London’s stock market influenced companies’ decisions about where to list, according to Dame Julia Hoggett, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange. Speaking on Big Boss Interview, she acknowledges that companies had delayed or considered listing elsewhere because of the narrative surrounding London, but says that reflected the mood three or four years ago. “Markets do operate on sentiment,” she says. “We need to stop throwing shade at ourselves as a nation and being a bit surprised if it’s a bit dark, a bit chilly and a bit damp.” Hoggett also argues that coverage of London’s difficulties does not fully reflect the scale of its markets. She says the London Stock Exchange is Europe’s largest equity market by capital raised that year, the world’s second-largest fixed-income market and its largest market for closed-ended funds. She also points to Britain’s record of creating and growing businesses, saying the country produces more companies valued at over $1bn than anywhere outside the United States and China. She challenges the assumption that British companies will necessarily perform better by listing in the US. Citing figures for a group of British businesses that raised money there since 2014, she says many have subsequently delisted and only a minority are trading above their listing prices. Hoggett also says regulatory reform needs to be accompanied by stronger incentives to invest in Britain. Her argument is that the country has substantial pools of savings and promising businesses, but too little domestic capital flowing into those companies. She wants a route towards abolishing stamp duty on share purchases, which she calls “a pernicious tax”. She proposes starting with relief for UK investment through ISAs and eligible pension funds, while acknowledging the revenue the government would lose. She also advocates a 10% dividend tax credit and inheritance-tax incentives linked to pension investment in Britain. Asked whether ISA tax advantages should be restricted to British investments, she says: “I genuinely think it’s worth looking at.” She maintains that she is not asking pensioners to accept lower returns, but wants the tax system to make investing in UK companies more attractive. Presenter: Will Bain Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones

Britain is "walking into a second significant energy crisis", the boss of the country's largest electricity generator has warned. Simone Rossi, chief executive of EDF in the UK, told the BBC's Business Editor Simon Jack on the Big Boss Interview that household bills are forecast to rise by around 20% in January. Customers still owe more than £5bn from the last crisis, four years ago. Gas is driving the rise. Gas prices are up 25%, while the electricity part of the price cap is 4% lower than in January. His advice is blunt: where you can, choose electricity over gas. He blames wars hitting the world's two biggest gas suppliers at once (Russia and Qatar), which he calls "almost unthinkable". Closer to the UK, he is asked whether ministers should approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, he says: "Green light. Absolutely. No doubt about it." With most homes heated by gas and most cars running on petrol or diesel, weaning Britain off fossil fuels will take decades. Until then, he argues, producing oil and gas at home keeps jobs and tax receipts in the UK and pollutes less than importing it. "It's a no-brainer." Nor does he expect relief soon. Ed Miliband promised bills £300 lower by the end of this parliament. Mr Rossi expects them to stay stubbornly high until 2030. Britain built an energy system for rising demand, but demand fell even as the economy grew by 30% and the population by about 10 million. The cause, he says, is deindustrialisation. The fixed costs of the grid are now spread across fewer users, and "somebody's got to pay". That explains the paradox of cheap renewables and expensive bills. Wind and solar are the cheapest power to produce, but cost is not the same as value. Electricity is hard to store and does not travel well, so every wind farm far from where people live needs costly cables, grid and storage. Last year Britain paid wind farms to switch off nine terawatt-hours of power while importing more than £40bn of fuel. His answer runs against intuition: more demand means lower bills. Ten million electric vehicles, two million heat pumps and more data centres would spread those fixed costs more widely. He wants ministers to move more policy costs from bills into general taxation, extend the zero VAT rate on electricity beyond April, and introduce a proper social tariff. Bills, he says, have become "a tool to pay for a lot of stuff", and that makes them regressive. Then there is the winter. Britain's gas storage is low, and relying on imports could mean "staggering" prices at peak times. "If we are caught short," he warns, "basically we are naked in front of the markets." Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Ollie Smith & Olie D'Albertanson 01:15 Why UK energy bills are so high 04:11 Why cheap renewables don't mean cheap bills 07:30 Walking into a second energy crisis 12:33 Paying wind farms to switch off 13:48 Rosebank, Jackdaw and the North Sea 17:20 Bills stubbornly high until 2030 21:58 Clean power 2030 versus reindustrialisation 27:41 Hinkley Point, Sizewell C and the cost of nuclear 32:28 Low gas storage and summer grid scares

The boss of Aviva, Britain's biggest insurer, has warned that some homes being built today could eventually become impossible to insure because of flood risk. Speaking to Sean Farrington, Dame Amanda Blanc said Britain is continuing to build homes in areas exposed to flooding, despite the growing threat from climate change. Aviva estimates 6.3 million UK homes are already at risk of flooding, a figure it expects to rise to 8 million by 2050. She said insurance works by spreading risk across large groups of people, but once flooding becomes almost certain, cover becomes much harder to provide. She questioned why thousands more homes are still being built in flood-prone areas and called for greater care in planning decisions. Dame Amanda also used the interview to send a message to the Chancellor ahead of the Budget, urging ministers not to fuel speculation about changes to pensions. She said rumours before last year's Budget led many savers to make decisions they later regretted. The conversation also covers whether pension funds should invest more in UK infrastructure, the cost of regulation, why millions of people are not saving enough for retirement, and what businesses need from government to drive growth. And, after a turbulent period at BP, where she is stepping down from the board, Dame Amanda explains why she has no intention of discussing the oil giant's recent troubles. Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones 01:55 Chancellor's speech and the end of coal mining 05:30 Aviva's £100bn UK investment and new industry 09:00 Heathrow third runway and backing big projects 11:20 Budget warning on pensions speculation 14:25 15 million people not saving enough for retirement 20:00 Are insurance premiums working for customers 22:39 Rising flood risk 25:40 Homes that could become uninsurable 26:57 Super El Niño and preparing for extreme weather 28:54 The Aviva turnaround 36:31 BP board exit and questions on leadership 45:15 Welsh Rugby Union and governance 50:10 Sexist comments at her first AGM 52:17 Opportunities for young people and business as a force for good

The chief executive of Britain’s biggest listed technology company has questioned the government’s push to build more data centres, arguing that the UK does not have the scale to become a truly sovereign AI nation. Steve Hare, chief executive of Sage, says Britain should be realistic about where it can compete. He argues that data centres themselves are simply infrastructure and do not give the UK control over the underlying technology. If Britain wants greater technological sovereignty, he believes it would need to work with larger economies rather than try to build the whole AI stack alone. Instead, Hare thinks the bigger opportunity is in applications: using increasingly cheap and widely available AI models to build products that solve real problems for customers. He points to the rapid fall in the cost of leading AI models and believes much of the value will ultimately sit with the companies building useful services on top of them. His caution is informed partly by experience. Hare was finance director of Marconi when the dotcom bubble burst in 2001. Looking at the huge sums now being spent on AI infrastructure, he thinks much of that capacity will eventually be used, but not necessarily at today’s prices. He is also worried about the wider UK economy. Sage provides accounting, payroll and finance software to millions of small and medium-sized businesses, giving Hare a close view of what is happening inside companies. Its data suggests profits are rising faster than revenues, with many business owners holding on to cash rather than investing. Hare says uncertainty around tax and economic policy is making that caution worse. He is particularly critical of repeated speculation over capital gains tax, which he believes risks pushing entrepreneurs to build their next businesses elsewhere. He also points to Britain’s long-running problem with scale. The UK creates large numbers of new businesses, but relatively few grow into major global technology companies before being sold, often to overseas buyers. Hare is due to meet the new prime minister at Number 10 and says the government now needs to make some difficult choices. His central message is that stronger growth is the only sustainable answer to rising spending pressures, borrowing costs and the demand for higher public revenues. And his advice to both business leaders and government is simple: “Be bold and be paranoid.” Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones 01:47 AI hype and the pace of change 08:14 How AI will change work 09:18 Growth as the UK's biggest challenge 15:03 Tax speculation and entrepreneurs moving abroad 19:35 Apprenticeships and employment rights 23:49 The prime minister's tough choices 27:20 Britain's scale-up problem 28:49 Data centres & why the UK cannot be a sovereign AI nation 36:02 Lessons from the dotcom crash 41:02 Be bold and be paranoid

Sir Jim Ratcliffe says he has lost confidence in Britain and can see no circumstances in the near future in which he would return and reinvest his wealth in the UK. Ratcliffe, one of Britain’s wealthiest businessmen and founder of one of its biggest industrial companies, is now a tax resident of Monaco. He argues that high and frequently changing taxes, energy policy and a lack of long-term political decision-making have damaged Britain’s ability to attract investment. “I don’t have any confidence in the UK, really,” the INEOS founder tells BBC business editor Simon Jack for this episode of Big Boss Interview. One consequence, he warns, could become apparent this winter. Ratcliffe says Britain could run short of gas during a prolonged cold spell, potentially forcing industrial users to shut down. The UK imports much of its gas and has relatively limited storage, he says, leaving it competing on international markets with countries including China. His warning comes as production from the North Sea continues to decline. INEOS operates the Forties pipeline, which Ratcliffe says was built to carry around one million barrels a day into Grangemouth but is now handling 178,000. “It’s just going to shut,” he says, while describing Aberdeen as “closing down”. He blames an effective tax rate of around 80% on North Sea production for discouraging investment and says the government should approve the Jackdaw and Rosebank projects. He also calls for a fundamental change in government spending priorities. Ratcliffe argues that Britain should reduce welfare spending substantially and redirect the money towards artificial intelligence and robotics, warning that the UK risks falling behind the United States in technologies that will shape future economic growth. In terms of priorities for the govt? "Immigration is clearly one," he says, pairing it with North Sea energy and tax as the questions no one in Westminster will confront. He points approvingly to Donald Trump's "landslide win", won, he says, on "immigration and tax" — and returns to the same charge that runs through the interview: "Nobody's tough enough to deal with the immigration problem. Nobody's tough enough to deal with the benefits problem. But somebody needs to do it, otherwise it ends in a bad place, doesn't it? The country goes broke." Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Ollie Smith & Olie D'Albertanson Picture: EPA/Shutterstock 02:00 Sir Jim Ratcliffe joins the podcast 03:15 Exploiting North Sea reserves 06:08 Carbon taxes, dumping and the deindustrialisation of Europe 10:22 "I don't have any confidence in the UK" 11:52 The wealth exodus, non-dom changes 14:57 Britain "on the slide" and the need for tougher politicians 17:56 Cutting the benefits bill to fund AI and robotics 19:07 Universities, "woke" and Oxbridge admissions 19:33 80% of world energy is still fossil fuels 22:14 End of pod

The executive chair of Paul Smith says working from home “just doesn’t work” for young people and has urged the government to stay out of decisions over where employees work. Ewan Venters argues that younger workers risk missing the informal learning and mentoring that comes from being around more experienced colleagues. He traces his own career back to joining Sainsbury’s at sixteen and learning from senior business figures by working alongside them, describing the experience as his “university education”. Venters says he is a “huge fan” of flexibility, but believes individual businesses rather than government should decide how it works. “Let business figure out the flexibility,” he says. “Please, let’s not have government intervention on whether you can work from home or not.” He says the government’s approach to employment rights will be one of the things he watches most closely. Venters took over as executive chair of Paul Smith after joining the board to review a business that has recorded losses for six consecutive years. He says previous management failed to respond quickly enough to structural changes in fashion retail as the wholesale market consolidated. “Quite frankly, they did take the eye off the ball,”. The changing retail landscape also leads Venters into a critique of pre-pack administrations. Paul Smith is among the creditors affected by the restructuring of Harvey Nichols, and Venters describes the use of pre-packs as “dubious in terms of ethics and way business gets done”. He says suppliers could recover only a fraction of what they are owed and questions the impact on smaller brands. We asked Frasers Group, who bought Harvey Nichols out of administration, for a response, but they have not replied at the moment. Internationally, Venters points to the US as one of Paul Smith’s biggest opportunities. He says the brand is growing four to five times faster there than anywhere else in the world and is preparing to open on Madison Avenue. He also calls for the return of tax-free shopping for international visitors to Britain, arguing that its removal has damaged growth. Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones 00:00 Will and Sean intro the pod 03:00 Ewan joins the pod - explains why he's at Paul Smith 05:27 Losses and what went wrong at Paul Smith 07:24 Recovery plan. 10:34 Jobs, productivity and AI 16:27 Harvey Nichols and pre-pack administrations 21:26 America Growth Strategy 23:42 WFH and back to the office 29:16 UK Budget and Tax-Free shopping

Artificial intelligence will help cure cancer within our lifetimes, according to Rene Haas, chief executive of Arm, the Cambridge-based company whose chip designs sit inside almost every smartphone on Earth. There are more than 350 billion chips using Arm technology have shipped worldwide. Haas says health is the "killer app" for the technology. Drugs can take 20 years to develop and around 95% of research and development efforts fail. He argues AI will shorten both the time it takes to discover new drugs and the time needed to test them, with some human trials eventually supplemented or replaced by AI modelling. "I believe in our lifetime, AI will help cure cancer," he tells BBC Economics editor Faisal Islam. But the ambitions Haas describes run into a physical constraint: the world cannot manufacture enough chips to meet demand. He says the industry is in an "absolutely supply-constrained environment" and expects that pressure to continue. Memory chip prices have risen sharply, smartphones are becoming more expensive, and handset demand is under pressure. Asked whether the shortage is simply a temporary bump, he says: "If it's a bump, it's a really, really big bump." The expansion of AI infrastructure is driving much of that demand. Large AI models require vast amounts of memory and computing power, while technology companies are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to new data centres. Haas says new semiconductor fabrication plants can cost tens of billions of dollars and take two to three years to build, limiting how quickly additional supply can come on stream. That constraint also shapes his view of some of the more ambitious proposals for AI infrastructure. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have both talked about the possibility of putting large-scale data centres in space, but Haas says the immediate problem remains much closer to Earth: "We need more fabs before we can put a data centre in space." Haas also says a correction in technology company valuations or investment levels is possible. He lived through the dot-com crash and draws a distinction between that period and the current AI boom, arguing that today's computing capacity is being heavily utilised rather than sitting idle. A fall in valuations, he says, would not necessarily mean a collapse in demand for AI, which he believes will become embedded across businesses and everyday technology. Arm itself is also changing. After decades of licensing chip designs to other companies, it has begun supplying complete data-centre chips of its own. Haas says demand for its new Neoverse product rose from around $1 billion to more than $2 billion within five months, with customers including Meta, Oracle, Cloudflare and SK Telecom. Presenter: Faisal Islam Producer: Olie D'Albertanson

(Episode 52) The chief executive of the world's largest water company has said Veolia would consider running Britain's water infrastructure if it were taken into public ownership, opening the door to a model in which the state owns the assets but private companies operate them. Asked whether that could mean "nationalise the assets, and Veolia comes in to manage them," Estelle Brachlianoff said: "It could be an option, yes." She described what that could look like in practice: Veolia running drinking water facilities, wastewater treatment plants and network management under contract, as it already does in other countries. What she ruled out was buying Thames Water. Pressed on the commercial opportunity, she said the ownership model was for government to decide. Brachlianoff leads a business with around €45 billion in turnover and 220,000 employees worldwide, including 15,000 in the UK. She says drought and water scarcity cost the British economy more than £1 billion this summer, with two-thirds of the country affected by drought and some areas coming close to rationing. Her warning is that this is not an exceptional summer but the beginning of a pattern. Climate change means shortages will become more frequent and more severe, she argues, and waiting until the next crisis will ultimately cost households and government more. That leads to the question she is repeatedly pressed on: who pays? Britain needs to fix leaks, increase resilience, deal with contaminants including PFAS "forever chemicals" and prepare for rapidly growing demand, while households remain under pressure and the Treasury faces competing calls on public money. Brachlianoff accepts that investment is needed, but argues that the answer is not simply to spend more. It is to spend more intelligently. Instead of digging up and replacing entire stretches of leaking pipe, for example, she advocates using AI to pinpoint the precise sections that are failing. She also points to greater reuse of wastewater, noting that treated wastewater already provides around 75% of irrigation water in Jordan, alongside the possible expansion of desalination. Her claim is that technology and efficiency could allow Britain to make its water system more resilient without water bills increasing as a proportion of household income. But she acknowledges that guarantee becomes much harder if the country waits until the next shortage before acting. For Brachlianoff, water is increasingly a national security issue as much as an environmental one. She points to the Middle East, where desalination plants have appeared on military target lists and some Veolia facilities are now protected by Patriot missile systems. Britain's risks are less dramatic, but the underlying principle is the same: without secure water supplies there is no food production, no industry and no functioning economy. And demand is about to become more complicated. According to Veolia, by 2030, UK data centres are forecast to consume the equivalent of the combined water use of Birmingham and Glasgow. Brachlianoff says tensions between communities and data centres over access to water are already becoming political issues in parts of the United States. Elsewhere, the environmental case becomes more contested. Veolia says it can now destroy PFAS - or "forever chemicals" contaminants to 99.9999%, but the question of who should pay for cleaning up decades of pollution remains unresolved. Brachlianoff says the cost will probably have to be shared between government, industry and consumers. Presenter: Justin Rowlatt Producer: Olie D'Albertanson

(Episode 51) Who should control Britain's biggest water company? Chris Weston, the chief executive of Thames Water, says he "completely agrees" with the Prime Minister that the industry, and Thames Water, needs greater public control. But he draws a clear distinction between stronger public accountability and public ownership, arguing that nationalisation or special administration could delay investment, increase uncertainty and ultimately leave taxpayers carrying the financial risk. Thames spent more than £1bn more than it received last year, with the shortfall currently funded by creditors. Under special administration, Weston says that funding would instead have to come from government while a new owner was sought. Full nationalisation, he argues, would place Thames Water's decade-long infrastructure programme on the public balance sheet alongside defence, health and education. His preferred solution is the proposal from more than 100 creditors to write off around £9bn of debt, inject fresh equity and rebuild the company under a model that promises no dividends for at least ten years. He argues this private-sector restructuring can sit alongside stronger public oversight, clearer government direction, greater regional representation and a more company-specific regulatory regime. The debate over ownership comes as Weston warns Britain faces a much bigger challenge. Drought, he says, is no longer an exceptional event but "the new normal". Despite an unusually wet January and February, no rain fell across the Thames Valley in July, exposing a shortage of water storage across the South East. Thames has not built a reservoir since Farmoor B in 1977. A replacement scheme proposed around 2010 was rejected after the company failed to make its case successfully, and Weston believes the region would not be facing a hosepipe ban today had it been approved. The proposed Whitehorse reservoir near Abingdon remains in the planning process and is not expected to begin filling until 2038, with another three years needed before it reaches capacity. Population growth, government housebuilding targets and the rapid expansion of data centres will place even greater pressure on supplies. Weston questions whether data centres should rely on drinking water for cooling, suggesting treated effluent from sewage works could provide an alternative. He also says households will need to become more mindful of how they use water, with government playing a greater role in encouraging behavioural change. Weston also makes a notable concession about how the industry reached this point. Customers, he says, have "paid too little for water for too long". Thames operates 440 treatment works and a network stretching four times around the circumference of the Earth. Keeping bills low, he argues, meant insufficient investment in maintaining and modernising ageing infrastructure, although he accepts the company's current debt levels are unsustainable. On pollution, Weston accepts Thames must improve but refuses to promise sewage incidents can ever be eliminated entirely. The company treats around 4.3 billion litres of wastewater every day and, he says, succeeds 99.5% of the time on average. Extreme weather, ageing infrastructure and illegal connections mean completely eliminating pollution incidents remains "very, very slim". Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Olie D'Albertanson/Ollie Smith 00:00 BBC Editor, Simon Jack introduces podcast 03:09 Chris Weston joins pod, explains Thames Water's situation 06:18 Bills were too low for too long. 09:32 Unrealistic targets, swage and pollution 12:31 Privatisation of Thames Water 14:50 What's on the table now? 17:28 Greater public control, special administration and nationalisation 28:41 Drought, reservoirs and the new normal 34:29 Staff abuse and his own pay

(Episode 50) etoro customers are "definitely moving away from crypto," according to the company's founder and chief executive, Yoni Assia. After more than a decade at the forefront of digital assets, Assia says customers are increasingly shifting towards mainstream investing and cash savings, as etoro expands beyond its trading platform into broader financial services. The company, which manages around $20 billion in customer assets for more than 40 million registered users, is pursuing a UK banking licence, launching a Visa debit card and expanding into everyday banking services. Assia also discusses how etoro balances that expansion with its continued offering of cryptocurrency trading. Alongside ISAs and long-term savings products, the platform continues to offer access to crypto assets. Asked whether it is appropriate to offer highly speculative crypto products alongside mainstream savings, Assia said he believes customers should have choice, while acknowledging that the crypto market is "a much less regulated" and "much riskier" ecosystem than traditional capital markets. The conversation also covers the growth of meme coins. Assia says he bought Donald Trump's cryptocurrency after it was listed on etoro. Asked whether he had made or lost money on the investment, he said he had not checked. Assia also highlighted the scale of the market, noting that while there are around 40,000 publicly listed companies worldwide, roughly 40,000 new meme coins are created every day on the Solana blockchain. He contrasted the level of regulation and disclosure required of listed companies with that of meme coins. Artificial intelligence is another topic discussed in the interview. Assia says etoro rebuilt its new app in six months using code written entirely by AI and believes the company's AI assistant is already capable of providing financial guidance that rivals many human advisers. He also discusses how AI could change the way people manage their money and how established financial institutions may need to adapt. The interview concludes with Assia's view of longer-term changes in financial services, including what he describes as a $140 trillion intergenerational transfer of wealth from baby boomers to younger generations. He explains why he believes younger investors will increasingly use AI-powered financial platforms, while also moving towards more traditional savings and investment products as they accumulate wealth. Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones 00:00 Introduction 02:00 The shift from crypto to banking 06:40 The rebrand and building an entire app with AI 09:00 Customers moving away from crypto and the boom-bust cycle 13:30 Bitcoin, quantum computing and the AI threat 17:28 Trump's meme coin and the losses suffered by investors 21:52 The copy trading transparency problem 24:30 The cost of living and whether ordinary people can afford risk 27:30 AI versus the traditional financial adviser 31:40 The $140 trillion generational wealth transfer

(Episode 49) Andria Vidler, the CEO of Allwyn UK - the operator of the National Lottery - has warned the British public risks losing it, unless it innovates. Allwyn took over the running of the National Lottery from Camelot in 2024, and it had pledged to double the amount if gives to good causes from 33 million pounds to 60 million pounds. But Vidler told Felicity Hannah that its future is at stake, if it doesn't continue to change and adapt at speed. Part of this is the UK launch of Powerball, the first time the American lottery has been offered outside the United States. Unlike EuroMillions, its jackpots are uncapped and can rise into the hundreds of millions. The interview also examines whether the National Lottery should be treated differently from other forms of gambling. Vidler rejected suggestions that draw-based games contribute significantly to gambling harm, arguing that waiting for a result removes the cycle of instant gratification associated with more addictive products. She also defended the lottery’s £500 weekly online deposit limit, saying most players spend nowhere near that amount and fewer than 2 per cent show any indication of problematic play. Allwyn has introduced over 100 new games in the last year. Vidler has also called on the government to close a regulatory loophole which she says allows online prize draws to compete without paying lottery duty or contributing to good causes. Vidler claims that house raffles, car competitions and other online prize draws are “cloaking themselves in lottery disguise” and exploiting legislation intended for small society lotteries. “They will steal our lunch if we’re not careful,” she warned, arguing that Britain should return to a model centred on one National Lottery in order to maximise returns to good causes. Presenter: Felicity Hannah Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones 00:00 Sean and Fliss introduce the pod 03:17 Andria joins BBI, discusses 2024 takeover 06:07 The Gambling Commission investigation 10:01 Good causes target and cost of living 14:42 Problem gambling and player protection 17:23 The shift to digital 21:17 Powerball launch 22:38 Prize draw competition and the loophole 26:02 Future of National Lottery is uncertain if it doesn't innovate 32:45 Career, AI, cyber security and women in leadership

(Episode 48) The Halifax brand is being retired after more than 180 years — and Charlie Nunn says artificial intelligence is the reason why. The chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group told the Big Boss Interview that the way customers discover financial products has fundamentally changed. Increasingly, people are asking AI tools and large language models to find the best mortgage or savings account, making multiple banking brands less relevant in an increasingly digital world. That shift is also reshaping the debate around bank branches. Nunn challenges one of Britain's most politically sensitive narratives, arguing that physical access to banking has never been greater once post offices, banking hubs, community bankers, ATMs and cash points are taken into account. While he acknowledges that many people feel left behind by branch closures, he says the way banking services are delivered is changing, with thousands of Lloyds colleagues now providing hour-long consultations to vulnerable customers in their own homes. Traditional branches, he believes, will survive for at least another decade, but what constitutes a "branch" is becoming increasingly blurred. Nunn also argues that Britain has become too cautious. Regulation makes it harder and more expensive to lend than in many comparable countries, he says, while the economics of housebuilding no longer work in many parts of the country. The average first-time buyer is now 34, two-thirds take out mortgages lasting 30 years and the bank of mum and dad remains central to getting on the property ladder. Some 13.5% of 16 to 24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training, a figure Nunn describes as "frightening" given the country's ageing population. If young people cannot build skills, save and buy homes, he warns, the long-term economic implications for Britain are significant. Artificial intelligence, meanwhile, could transform banking over the next five years more than the previous 35, democratising access to investment advice and helping tackle fraud. Presenter: Will Bain Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor: Henry Jones

(Episode 47) AI and drone warfare will force a “complete reimagining” of how conflict risk is calculated and insured, the chief executive of Lloyd’s of London has warned, because traditional assumptions about how wars escalate may no longer hold. Patrick Tiernan, who runs the 337-year-old insurance marketplace, told the Big Boss Interview that autonomous weapons and AI-driven decision-making could remove the warning signs and diplomatic pauses that have historically allowed insurers to adjust cover as conflicts intensify. “When we talk about the way war is insured at the moment, it assumes that it’ll build up, that there’ll be breaks in there, and that you can increase the cover,” he said. “It’s very possible that won’t be the case as there is more drone warfare, more artificial intelligence in the decision-making. So we’re going to have to completely reimagine how we cover that.” His warning comes as governments increase defence spending and NATO allies reassess their military commitments. Tiernan said Lloyd’s must ensure it has the capacity to insure growth in defence, energy and infrastructure, while being clearer about which forms of defence it supports. He said the current risk environment is unlike anything in Lloyd’s history, with physical infrastructure, data and cyber systems, financial services and the international rules-based order all under pressure at the same time. “We are very underprepared for the risks we’re facing because we rely on things that maybe won’t be there tomorrow,” he said. Tiernan also warned that the “protection gap” between economic losses and what is actually insured is widening. He said businesses and governments can no longer assume the state will step in when disaster strikes, arguing that high debt levels mean governments may not have the same financial firepower they had in the past. He called on governments to spell out what they will and will not protect, so private capital can price the remaining risk. Businesses, he said, are being “wilfully ignorant” if they fail to understand their exposure. A major state-backed cyberattack remains one of Lloyd’s realistic disaster scenarios and could be “deeply crippling” to the global economy, Tiernan said. He added that take-up of cyber insurance remains too low, particularly among European SMEs, despite policies offering prevention and resilience support as well as financial cover. On the Strait of Hormuz, Tiernan said Lloyd’s drew on lessons from previous Gulf shipping disruption and the Black Sea closure during the Ukraine war. Insurance capacity remained available, he said, with crew safety rather than the price of cover the main factor affecting shipping. He also argued that the insurance industry, and perhaps the wider economy, has lost some of its appetite for calculated risk since the financial crisis. Pointing to opportunities in undersea data centres, autonomous vehicles and AI-led drug development, he said: “The risk of missing out is greater than the risk of overstepping.” On climate, Tiernan said Lloyd’s has added US flood, severe convective storm and fire to its realistic disaster scenarios, with flood, fire and drought all on an upward trajectory. He defended Lloyd’s continued insurance of legal, unsanctioned fossil fuel activity, but said the market should use its capital to support new energy technologies including small modular reactors, nuclear fusion and renewables.

(Episode 46) Britain should stop taxing workers and start taxing robots, according to the chief executive of one of the country's biggest recruitment firms, who says the UK's tax system is pointing in entirely the wrong direction at the worst possible moment. James Reed, CEO of Reed Recruitment, told the Big Boss Interview that the government is taxing employers who hire young people "to pick up beer glasses in gardens" whilst letting AI and automation — the technologies actively replacing those workers — go entirely untaxed. His mantra: "Back humans, tax robots." And he wants the next prime minister and chancellor to make it the centrepiece of a wholesale redesign of how Britain raises revenue. Reed argues this is not a fringe idea but an inevitability. "Taxation follows wealth," he said. "When you see these companies being valued at over a trillion, that's where the action is. So that's where the taxation should follow." He envisions transaction-based levies on AI services and automation — "rather like VAT" — or surcharges on businesses that replace human workers with machines. He acknowledged it would "take some designing" but said the principle is simple: the robots are generating the wealth, so the robots should be taxed. The urgency, he said, is driven by the collision of two forces. The first is the October 2024 budget, which Reed described as a "historic mistake." The £25 billion employers' National Insurance increase was, in his words, "a tax on jobs" that caused clients to cancel hiring within a week and has driven businesses towards automation and offshoring at precisely the moment AI makes both easier than ever. The second force is AI itself. Reed warned it is "burning through entry-level jobs," destroying opportunities for young people at a pace the country is not prepared for. He said Britain is behaving like "rabbits looking into the headlights" of these changes, with no collective strategy for what happens when the jobs disappear — and with them, the income tax, employees' National Insurance and employers' National Insurance that fund public services. Reed was unequivocal about the political response required. Asked whether there should be a new chancellor, he said: "Yes, absolutely. The incumbent made the decisions that caused the damage." He called the current period one of the toughest in his 30 years as chief executive, ranking alongside the financial crisis of 2008 and the early days of the pandemic — but worse in one respect. "In 2008 and 2020, there was a sense that we need to sort this out. I don't see that at the moment." The consequences are already visible in the data. Vacancy numbers on reed.co.uk have been in decline for three years. National statistics show vacancies have fallen from over a million to around 700,000 — fewer than before the pandemic. But it is the graduate jobs market that tells the starkest story. Graduate vacancies on Reed's platform have collapsed from 180,000 to 50,000 in four years, and are still falling. The hardest-hit group is 21 to 25-year-olds, many of whom emerged from university with degrees that have, in Reed's words, "no currency out there in the world." This led Reed to question the value of university itself. He said many graduates feel "mis-sold," that apprentices in their early twenties are now "way ahead" of their university-educated peers, and that the idea of half the country's young people attending university is "very outdated." Britain, he said, has been "ridiculously snobby about trades" — which he believes are the jobs of the future. He proposed a "three-lane superhighway" in which a third of school leavers go to university, a third do apprenticeships, and a third go straight into work with a short-term employer subsidy to help them get started. Presenter: Sean Farrington Producer: Olie D'Albertanson Editor Henry Jones Image Courtesy of Reed Recruitment 03:05 A real moment of opportunity and good opportunity for a reset. 04:18 The need for a new Chancellor 10:25 The need to change course on taxation around jobs 12:05 AI is burning through entry-level jobs 13:09 One of the toughest periods since 2008 (the financial crisis) 13:47 Back humans, tax robots 23:03 Is University still worth it? 35:40 Applicants being ghosted by employers 41:00 Spelling mistakes on CVs now positively sought after 44:01 Big tech companies need to pay more tax: "back humans, tax robots" pt 2