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With 14 days left, Chuck Todd & Chris Cillizza make the argument that should scare Republicans most: corruption has climbed to the number two or three issue, and unlike any other message, it hands a lifelong conservative permission to punish his own party without admitting he was ever wrong. The evidence is already in the ad buys — Trump appeared in 47% of Republican broadcast airings in May and 1% in October — even as he opens a nine-stop closing tour in Wichita and calls the polls rigged. Chuck and Chris dig into why his Senate coattails are a myth Republicans keep believing, read the Kalshi market where an Abbott-plus-Talarico split is the likeliest Texas outcome, and unpack the five-day implosion of press secretary Katie Zacharia. Then the hardest question either of them gets: if Democrats actually sweep, what does December look like? Chuck’s answer is paralysis inside both parties, a Schumer who won’t walk away, and a president who’s less a partisan than a dealmaker. Plus Ann Hornaday, Miami at No. 1, and the cheapest World Series ticket in years.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS Timeline: 00:00 Fourteen days out and Trump’s closing tour 08:00 Corruption, the permission slip, and ad data that gives the game away 15:00 What Trump says versus what he’d actually do after polls close 21:00 Kalshi: the Texas two-race market, vouchers, and the Beshear fight 29:00 The five-day press secretary and a West Wing built to keep Trump busy 35:00 What December actually looks like if Democrats sweep 43:00 DC statehood, the scorpion and the frog, and the race to replace him 49:00 Election-night tea leaves, and whether Schumer walks away 55:00 Miami–Florida State: the double-overtime finish and No. 1 since 2002 1:01:00 A 12-team playoff, Mensah, and the Arch Manning question 1:07:00 Rays–Brewers, and an election-night announcement coming See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS   Timeline: 00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it 06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief 12:00  Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone 18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave? 22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas 30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race 36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do 41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting 46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it 50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol 54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this 1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guy See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Twenty-eight days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza stress-test their own assumptions: if everything points one direction, what could still be wrong? They work through all three counterfactuals — the Republican money advantage, a polling miss, and the fact that it's October 6th and not November 2nd — and find the money argument weakest, since the GOP has owned the airwaves for six weeks with no discernible movement. That sets up the episode's central frame, borrowed from Charlie Cook: this is a red undertow, not a blue wave, because the fight is happening in light-red and formerly purple states where Republicans own the status quo and there's no Democrat left to blame. The weekend's five New York Times/Siena polls back it up — Talarico at 51 in Texas, Kansas tied, and Ashley Hinson clinging to a one-point lead in the race Chuck calls the most predictive on the board. He also floats a tinfoil-hat theory about who benefits from leaked audio making Ken Paxton look ungrateful, a day before Politico published exactly that. Plus the Kalshi board and where Susan Collins is underpriced, Ted Cruz firing back at JD Vance, Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round win and what it signals about a Trump on the 2028 ballot, and Trump posting Tom Cotton's cell number over daylight saving time.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SuperTuesdays http://kalshi.com/r/SuperTuesdays Timeline: 00:00 Twenty-eight days out — and the case that we're all wrong 04:00 Red undertow, not blue wave: why the map explains everything 08:00 Five NYT/Siena polls, and the one race Chuck would want to know 14:00 Iowa as the tell — and the Republicans who are one turnover away 16:00 The tinfoil hat theory about Paxton, and the money pit called Texas 20:00 Talarico at 51 — the point where money stops mattering 26:00 The Kalshi board: 48 seats, Collins as the value & overpriced governors 35:00 If Collins wins, it's one of the great holds of all time 39:00 A little 2028: Vance baits Cruz, and why Rand Paul is the real threat 45:00 Night golf, $90 checks & the rise of the "meatloaf Republicans" 51:00 Bolsonaro's son wins round one — and the Trump 2028 question 53:00 Baseball playoffs, the ball off the roof & a Packers team with no line     See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one.    Timeline: 00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp 08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump? 18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved 26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio 30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen 40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate 48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks 54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets 1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced 1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes "18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Six weeks out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Trump's ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House — escalated Monday when the rest of the TV pool refused to cover him without CNN. Chuck, who fought the Obama White House's attempt to cut Fox out of a pool, explains why the real story is why now: a president lashing out as he loses control everywhere else. NBC has Trump at 41%, his second-term low; the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023; and the three most toxic positions in NBC's message testing are the three things Trump spent the last ten days amplifying. Chuck argues everyone is probably underestimating Democrats, then turns to the party's own problems: a DNC in debt, a brand that polls worse than the GOP's, and Axios reporting that most former Harris aides don't expect her to run in 2028. Plus JB Pritzker's 80-pound GLP-1 disclosure and Jayden Daniels' devastating elbow injury.    Timeline: 00:00 Trump bans CNN, MS NOW & Politico — and how the TV pool works 06:00 Why now? A president grabbing what he can control 16:00 Toxic message tests, Iowa defections & a party running from Trump 24:00 Are we underestimating Democrats? Wave, tsunami or mirage 34:00 The Democrats' money problem — the DNC, donors & turnout groups 40:00 Is Kamala Harris running? The Malibu tell and a cycle off 48:00 Pritzker's weight loss, the Democratic brand & the rise of independents 1:00:00 Jayden Daniels, injuries & the college sports bill 1:08:00 NFL chaos, NBA predictability & the case for relegation See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay.  Timeline: 00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything 10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq 18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton 24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable 34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska 40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks 46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum 56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill 66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top five See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day. From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now 03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s  04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice 05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season 07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no 08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part 11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem 13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message? 14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been 16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech 19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day 20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech? 23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas 26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take. 27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval 29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario 31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back 33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016 34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem 38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check 39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest 42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House 43:00 The Missouri ruling 46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop 47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29. 49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers 51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story 54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd 55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party? 58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking 1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame 1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave 1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference 1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act 1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court 1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill 1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team. 1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way. The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature. Timeline: 00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer 01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate 02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas 03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas 04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton 05:00 The Texas governor's race  06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist 07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment? 08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign" 10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago 11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months 12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration 13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers 14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma  15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs 16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment? 19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign 20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot" 21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14 22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan 23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska 24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana 25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved 26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami 27:00 This election is about the cost of living  28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction 31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas? 34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night 35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary 37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running 38:00 The Hasan Piker problem 39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make 42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel 43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola 45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack 47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting 49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric 50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with 52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker 54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is 57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart 58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington 59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary 1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard 1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran? 1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons 1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins 1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are 1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf 1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primary See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper. The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams. Timeline: 00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field 00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20% 00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr. 01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it  02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris 03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to 04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump 04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline? 06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open 07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition 08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption 08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot? 10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned 10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean? 12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story 13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032 14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0 14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick 15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane 16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling 17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy 19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance?  20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028 21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout? 22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley? 23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan 25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane 27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency 28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president 30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot 31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation 34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable 35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both 36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy 36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran 38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states 39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest 40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's? 41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race 42:03 Reading the methodology honestly  43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America 44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy 46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage 47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff 48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t 50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere 52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance 53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted 54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine 57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president 59:37 What has JD Vance actually done? 1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins  1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team 1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent 1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right  02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16? 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco 19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign?  23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run  26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it 33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency 33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley 35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term?  45:24 What's Donalds's real number?  46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis 50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does 51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district 52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem 54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal 55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed 56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short 56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit? 57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing 59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel. The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead 00:45 Previewing the primaries 01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats 02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection 03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats 04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad? 05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack 06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline 06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work  08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024? 09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted 10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race 11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle 12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech? 12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here 14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent 15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation 17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers 20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand? 22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu 23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about 23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s 25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats 26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth 28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud 30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake 31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly 32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs 33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028 34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice 36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent 37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets 38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016 41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you 41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds 42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition 44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide 45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record 46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore? 47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard 48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard 49:18 Cassidy & Blanche  50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families 51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself 53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him 53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money?  54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat? 54:20 Nats sweep the Reds 55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds? 57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window. From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever  00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong 00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close 01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County 02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment 03:18 The Bernie problem 05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed 05:44 Big money got rejected 06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser 07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity 08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble 09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement 13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday 14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary 15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican  16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand 17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party 18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live   19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds? 20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy 20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling 22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska? 23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire  24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it 27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing 28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner 29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers? 32:41 The Max Miller deadline 33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen 34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it 36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story 38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal 39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying 40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always 41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money? 41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028 43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal 45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America 45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom 47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court 48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them 49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism 51:33 Both parties crashed this car 51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater 53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau 54:08 The Nats fire sale 55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later 55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada. From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar 01:00 The six-state lineup  01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most 02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week 03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris? 04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina 06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith  07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore 08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory 10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency 12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough 13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first 14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i 15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008 17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals  20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party 21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore 23:00 Why start where you can't win in November? 25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg 27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker 30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party 31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups 32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off 35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps  36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out 38:16 Trump will always make it about himself  40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline 41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one 43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private  45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country 45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president 46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement 48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes 50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome 53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community 54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day  54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams 57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate. From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe." Timeline: 00:00 105 days out from the midterms 02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off 03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits 04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers 05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster 06:49 Democrats are more motivated 07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win 08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020 09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible 10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator 11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow 14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party 15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference 15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number 17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers 19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them 20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling  22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results 24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate 25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be  26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave 27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems 30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris 31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war 32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game 34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone 36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special 36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term 37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing 41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation 42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund 43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins 44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question 45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life 47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly 48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame 50:20 Quotes that aged badly 52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland  53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers 56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron 57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title 1:00:17 What the prediction markets say  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd open on a jolting weekend in politics: the sudden death of Lindsey Graham and the frantic — and faintly unseemly — scramble to replace him. Rather than relitigate Graham through the usual partisan lens, the guys argue that his loss, alongside the coming departures of Cornyn, Tillis, Cassidy, Durbin and others, amounts to a gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center, and they lay out their favorite framework for understanding him: the difference between "ideologues" and "politicians," and why the politicians are the ones who actually get things passed. They break down the near-term fallout for Trump, who just lost his most effective back-channel to skeptical senators and to Ukraine, and handicap the wide-open South Carolina race — from Henry McMaster's likely caretaker appointment to a crowded August primary featuring Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and a possible Trey Gowdy compromise play. From there it's on to two health stories the news cycle nearly buried — the mystery around Mitch McConnell's fall, pneumonia and rehab stay, and Trump's latest Walter Reed cognitive test — before a deep dive into Maine, where Susan Collins suddenly has no opponent after Graham Platner's exit and seven Democrats will fight it out at a 600-person nominating convention. Chuck and Chris debate whether Collins is now more or less vulnerable, take a spirited detour through New England blue bloods and Platner's "oyster farmer" branding, and skewer the knives-out world of political consultants. Then they close personal and sporty: their National Journal origin story, and a nerdy back-and-forth on the reinvented Home Run Derby, All-Star nostalgia, a World Baseball Classic pitch, and the Nats' latest heartbreak. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays  01:29 Lindsey Graham dies Saturday night of an aortic rupture 02:01 When death hits mid-campaign, everything accelerates  03:59 The "humans vs. aliens" acting analogy, applied to politicians 04:43 Ideologues vs. politicians — and why Graham was the latter 05:42 Democratic senators genuinely liked working with Graham 06:21 The real story: the gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center 11:33 Graham would've been a Democrat if he'd grown up in Oregon 14:26 Near-term fallout — Graham was Thune & Trump's whisperer 14:59 Why Todd Blanche's confirmation just got harder 16:14 Zelensky lost his best Trump whisperer, too 17:30 Republicans have functionally lost control of the Senate 19:37 An open South Carolina Senate seat comes once a generation 22:09 South Carolina's factional GOP sets up a free-for-all 24:43 A full six-year term raises the stakes  29:06 Could Trey Gowdy be the compromise candidate? 31:02 What is going on with Mitch McConnell? 35:45 The buried health story: Trump's new Walter Reed cognitive test 36:36 Should cognitive tests be mandatory for presidents over 75? 38:26 On Graham, Trump can only make it about himself 39:32 The Butler anniversary crowd-size claim 40:32 To Maine: Collins is the most vulnerable Republican  41:02 Handicapping the seven-Democrat nominating convention 45:07 Is Susan Collins more or less vulnerable than a month ago? 47:13 Why the right Democratic nominee could actually beat her 51:15 Platner's privilege & the "oyster farmer" brand 51:39 The knives-out world of nepo-baby campaign consultants 51:56 Chuck & Chris's National Journal origin story 54:35 Why "he's a farmer, not a politician" branding is hypnotic nonsense 56:20 To sports: the reinvented, 20-swing Home Run Derby 56:41 The Nats blow three leads  58:04 Empty-nesting & the streaming shows worth your night 59:42 All-Star nostalgia in the age of the MLB app and interleague play 1:02:42 A pitch for a two-week WBC break every July 1:04:25 The Futures Game & Nats prospect Eli Willits 1:05:06 Wrap-up: subscribe to Super Tuesdays See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.