Advertise on podcast: John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism

DESCRIPTION It seems clear that the Trump administration and its allies are working overtime to create the false impression that the United States is well on its way to defeating Iran and that Tehran should therefore submit to American demands sooner rather than later. If it does not, so the argument goes, not only will the economic punishment inflicted on Iran reach crushing levels, but President Trump will launch a devastating military attack that might even include putting U.S. ground forces into Iran. I will argue in this episode that this is largely a propaganda campaign—and that it is unlikely to work because Iran, not the Trump administration, is in the driver’s seat. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:42 The Administration's Propaganda Campaign 3:41 A Two-Pronged Approach 4:12 The Economic Argument: Blockade & Bessent's Strategy 6:21 The Military Argument: More Troops & Carriers 8:48 Why the Story Is Deeply Flawed 9:16 Why a New Air Campaign Won't Work 10:51 The "Three Carriers" Myth 14:28 Striking Oil Infrastructure & Iran's Second Strike 15:35 The Ground Invasion: How Many Combat Troops? 20:23 What Can You Do With 7,500 Troops? 23:05 Body Bags & Getting the Marines Ashore 25:19 Will Economic Pain Make Iran Surrender? 26:28 Lesson of History: Blockades Alone Don't Win Wars 28:38 Facing an Existential Threat 29:23 Iran's Doomsday Option 31:14 Is the West Really Doing Well? 32:01 New Strait Attacks & the Houthi Threat to Saudi Oil 34:30 Oil Is Flowing, but Economies Are Still Hurting 36:01 Bottom Line ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

I'll explain how the Vietnam War shaped my thinking about international relations, and the lessons it holds for today.

I'll explain why I believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next decade is unlikely, and the one scenario that could change that.

President Trump and President Xi Jinping just concluded a three-day summit in Washington, DC, that was noteworthy for its lofty rhetoric and almost complete lack of progress in dealing with a host of truly important issues: AI, Iran, Taiwan, trade, and Ukraine. The Economist maintains that the two leaders “squandered a chance to tackle the world’s gravest threats,” which it argues “amounts to a dereliction of duty, and leaves the rest of humanity as the losers.” I disagree. I will review what happened at the summit regarding each of these issues and explain why, with the possible exception of trade, the underlying conflicts of interest between China and the United States leave little room for meaningful agreement.

Iuliia Mendel, who served as President Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, published an article in The Spectator on September 15, 2026, titled “Zelensky’s Strategy Is National Suicide.” In essence, she makes a compelling case that Ukraine is not simply losing its war with Russia but is being so thoroughly wrecked in the process that it is effectively committing national suicide.   Mendel made much the same case the following day, September 16, in a virtual address to an event at the European Parliament. She had intended to deliver the speech in person but was denied entry to the Parliament building and therefore had to appear virtually. Mendel attributes that decision to the sanctions President Zelensky had imposed on her three days earlier, although the European Parliament has not said why she was barred.   Mendel’s article and speech have generated substantial controversy, which is hardly surprising given the severity of her indictment and the fact that she served as Zelensky’s press secretary. My aim in this episode is to examine the arguments she makes in both her article and her European Parliament speech and explain why I think her description of what is happening to Ukraine is fundamentally correct.

I recently spent 8 days in Russia – September 5-12, 2026 – mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. I gave a series of talks and interviews and spoke with numerous people in the Russian security community, including senior figures like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In this episode, I describe what I learned during my trip.

Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick have just published a terrific new book called Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. It appears twenty years after Steve Walt and I published “The Israel Lobby” in The London Review of Books (March 2006), which we turned into a book a year later. Much has happened regarding Israel, the Israel lobby, and the US-Israeli relationship in the two decades since Steve and I first addressed those subjects. Clifton and Lustick do a great job explaining those fundamental changes. In this episode, I will discuss their new book and explain how it differs from what Steve and I wrote in our article and book on the lobby. ———————————————————— BUY THE BOOKS 1. Israel's Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power  by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/4gMNJey 2. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/3SL2M0o (As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.) ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:28 The book: Israel's Lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick 2:38 The core arguments 5:15 The conceptual framework: discourse vs. policy 7:29 Where the new book breaks from Mearsheimer & Walt 8:01 How the discourse changed: dual loyalty and "Israel Firsters" 12:42 The internet and the collapse of media gatekeeping 15:08 Israeli behavior after October 7th 17:45 Israel as a "crazy state" 22:11 Israeli identity: "a nation that dwells alone" 27:51 Why Americans turned on Israel 29:29 The lobby fights back: redefining antisemitism 32:54 Government crackdowns on campus protests 35:40 Plutocrats, Citizens United, and policy capture 39:11 The bottom line and the big question ahead 41:14 Closing thoughts ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

In recent months, Western news coverage of the Ukraine war tells us that Russia is suffering huge casualties on the battlefield while making hardly any progress capturing Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks on the Russian homeland are wreaking havoc, which will improve Ukraine’s position at the bargaining table. In short, Russia is in deep trouble and Ukraine’s situation is hardly dire. This episode explains why this perspective is wrong. Russia is winning on the battlefield – albeit slowly – and its ramped-up bombing campaign is doing egregious damage to Ukraine’s economy, which is essential for Kyiv to sustain the war on the front lines. This situation is unsurprising, as this is a war of attrition in which the side with an advantage in manpower and weaponry invariably wins. In that regard, the Russians have an overwhelming advantage. Indeed, were it not for the effect that drones have had on the battlefield, the Ukrainians would have lost a long time ago.  ———————————————————— Chapters 0:00 Intro 0:34 What This Episode Covers 0:50 The Story the Western Media Is Telling 3:25 The Battlefield: A War of Attrition 4:20 The Balance of Manpower 6:41 Force-to-Space Ratio: Gaps in the Line 8:13 The Balance of Firepower: Artillery 10:51 Drones: What's Keeping Ukraine in the Fight 12:02 Russian Casualties: The Numbers Don't Add Up 15:01 Ukrainian Casualties: 30,000 a Month 18:18 Why Russia Takes Territory So Slowly 20:11 The Air War: Russia's Inventory 28:45 Why Punishment Campaigns Don't Work 29:35 Russia Changes Strategy 33:49 Warehouses and the Energy Grid 36:11 Ukraine's Drone Campaign Can't Win the War 37:40 Outside Support for Ukraine 38:12 Trump and the Shifting Burden 42:29 Inside Ukraine: War Weariness 43:51 Zelensky's Political Troubles 45:31 Where the War Stands Today 47:48 The Cost of Rebuilding 49:16 The Best Ukraine Can Hope For 50:34 Conclusion ———————————————————— Music "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

There is considerable evidence that the US is interested in “expanding its options” for using its nuclear arsenal. In particular, it appears that the Pentagon would like to increase its reliance on tactical nuclear weapons for both deterrence and warfighting should deterrence fail.  I will argue that fighting a war with tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely to produce a meaningful military victory and is likely to have catastrophic consequences. In fact, the US and NATO embraced this very option in the 1950s in the context of a war in Europe, only to realize that they had to find a different way to deter the Soviet Union and fight it should deterrence break down. The same basic logic that applied then still applies today. Simply put, tactical nuclear weapons are not war-winning weapons. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction 00:31 Why tactical nuclear weapons, why now 01:52 From massive retaliation to flexible options 03:04 The real driver: weakened conventional forces 04:46 Ukraine, Iran, and depleted munitions 05:07 Balancing conventional and nuclear deterrence 06:24 The appeal of tactical nukes on the battlefield 07:04 Why that thinking is misguided 07:55 Defending Europe in the 1950s 10:26 NATO's nuclear answer — and why the US never adopted "no first use" 11:54 Carte Blanche: the June 1955 war game 14:41 Destroying Germany to save Germany 15:38 The escalation problem 16:47 Command and control in a nuclear war 18:50 MC 14/2: NATO doubles down in 1957 20:20 Shift one: rebuilding conventional deterrence 23:03 Shift two: nuclear weapons as coercion, not warfighting 25:19 A handful of weapons and the slippery slope 28:00 MC 14/2 vs. MC 14/3 29:30 Recap: how NATO moved away from warfighting 31:30 What this means for the US today 33:49 Conclusion ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

The June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expired today – August 17, 2026. The US has not achieved any of its initial objectives. It is now mainly concerned with opening the Strait of Hormuz without having to accept Iran’s far-reaching demands for ending its blockade of the Strait.  The Trump administration is trying to achieve that goal with a naval blockade, a strategy it employed earlier in the war, and which failed. I will argue that the strategic situation facing the US in the Gulf is much worse now and there is virtually no chance that this second blockade will work. Moreover, that deteriorating strategic situation makes escalation even less attractive. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:29 The MOU expires today 1:23 Why the US is now relying on a naval blockade 2:49 America's four original war aims — and why all four failed 3:40 What America wants now: open the strait, get a nuclear deal 4:58 Iran's goals and its list of demands 7:22 How we got here: the phases of the war 7:38 Phase one — the 40-day air campaign 8:06 Phase two — the first blockade and the surrender document 9:13 Phase three — the tit-for-tat campaign 10:49 Phase four — the second blockade, where we are today 11:24 Bessent's promise of "unprecedented economic hurt" 12:53 Can the second blockade actually work? 14:39 Problem one: the state of the US Navy 17:05 Problem two: stripping East Asia to cover the Gulf 19:17 Problem three: oil, the Red Sea, and drained reserves 21:50 Problem four: Iranian hardliners take control 23:50 Is there an escalation option? Three reasons why not 25:34 The July 6th attack — and what the US isn't doing now 28:15 Iran now holds the escalation card 29:59 Conclusion: the US has no strategy left ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

The aim of this video is to compare the terms of the new deal to end the Iran war, which key Iranian spokesmen have just described, with those of the June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Tehran and Washington. I will explain why President Trump should have embraced the original MOU instead of walking away. The US has since lost significant bargaining leverage, and is now facing Iranian demands that far exceed those in the original MOU.  It is difficult to see how Trump can accept Iran’s demands, as that would represent a humiliating defeat for the US. At the same time, it is hard to see how he can reject them, as he has to open the Strait of Hormuz sooner rather than later and he has hardly any coercive leverage over Iran. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:32 The state of US–Iran negotiations 1:37 Background: Obama and the 2015 JCPOA 2:09 Trump tears up the JCPOA (2018) 3:03 Biden fails; Trump returns (2025) 3:57 The June 2025 "12-Day War" 4:33 The February 28th war 5:53 The 40-day bombing and the April 8th ceasefire 6:33 Failed talks and the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding 8:43 The 11 issues on the table 9:19 Issue 1: Opening the Strait of Hormuz 9:56 Issue 2: Lifting oil sanctions 10:23 Issues 3 & 4: The ceasefires 11:33 Issue 5: Who controls the Strait 11:44 Issue 6: Tolls and fees 12:07 Issue 7: US military presence 12:40 Issues 8–10: The big three economic issues 14:11 Issue 11: The nuclear question 15:30 MOU - June 17th 20:36 The July tit-for-tat and the collapse of US leverage 21:38 Iran's Proposal - August 8th 27:11 What can Trump do? 29:36 Conclusion ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

In today’s video I’ll explain why I believe a US victory is not possible and why the longer Trump waits to cut a deal with Iran, the worse the outcome for the US.  I’ll argue that Trump would have been wise to settle the war months ago, after the initial bombing campaign failed. Instead, he kept looking for some way to win the war or at least find an off ramp that would allow him to make the case that the US achieved some of its goals and did not walk away from the fight empty-handed. But that search is a futile enterprise. There is no war-winning strategy available to him. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:33 The Current Situation in Iran 0:44 Overview of the Episode 2:47 The Four Goals of the US 6:17 The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding: A Surrender Document 9:18 Why Did our Strategies Fail? 9:51 The Five Possible Military Strategies 10:30 Strategy 1: The Discriminate Air Campaign 11:51 Strategy 2: The Indiscriminate Air Campaign 12:35 Strategy 3: Tit-for-Tat 13:07 Strategy 4: The Naval Blockade 13:26 Strategy 5: The Land Option 13:57 What the US Actually Did: The Timeline 18:35 Signing the MoU, Then Violating It 22:46 Why the Three Strategies Failed 36:20 Where We Are: America Has Lost 38:46 What Trump Must Do Now 40:31 The Iranians Hold the Cards 41:13 Summary & Conclusions ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

In today’s episode I’ll explain why I believe a US victory is not possible and why the longer Trump waits to cut a deal with Iran, the worse the outcome for the US.  I’ll argue that Trump would have been wise to settle the war months ago, after the initial bombing campaign failed. Instead, he kept looking for some way to win the war or at least find an off ramp that would allow him to make the case that the US achieved some of its goals and did not walk away from the fight empty-handed. But that search is a futile enterprise. There is no war-winning strategy available to him. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:33 The Current Situation in Iran 0:44 Overview of the Episode 2:47 The Four Goals of the US 6:17 The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding: A Surrender Document 9:18 Why Did our Strategies Fail? 9:51 The Five Possible Military Strategies 10:30 Strategy 1: The Discriminate Air Campaign 11:51 Strategy 2: The Indiscriminate Air Campaign 12:35 Strategy 3: Tit-for-Tat 13:07 Strategy 4: The Naval Blockade 13:26 Strategy 5: The Land Option 13:57 What the US Actually Did: The Timeline 18:35 Signing the MoU, Then Violating It 22:46 Why the Three Strategies Failed 36:20 Where We Are: America Has Lost 38:46 What Trump Must Do Now 40:31 The Iranians Hold the Cards 41:13 Summary & Conclusions ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.