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Become a member to submit questions for future videos. Click Join: https://www.youtube.com/@johnmearsheimer/join YouTube channel member ⁠@JerryMcLaughlin-r8w ⁠ asked whether drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have made U.S. aircraft carriers obsolete, and whether the Navy saw it coming. Carriers have always been vulnerable near large landmasses, which is why we didn’t use them against Nazi Germany or plan to in a Cold War fight in Europe. The threat is now far greater, and the cost exchange favors cheap missiles and drones over a carrier and its battlegroup. In a fight with China over Taiwan or the South China Sea, I think carriers are basically useless. Against Iran they’d have to operate even farther out as Iranian weapons improve. The Navy knows all this, but carriers are bound up with its identity, so reducing our reliance on them will be hard. Looking at it purely strategically, I think we’d be better off spending much less on carriers and much more on submarines. ————————————————————  CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:04 The Question: Are Aircraft Carriers Obsolete? 1:02 Carriers Have Always Been Vulnerable Near Land 2:21 Lessons from the Ukraine and Iran Wars 3:22 Carriers in a War with China 5:06 Carriers in the Middle East 6:47 Does the Navy Know? 7:22 Why the Navy Won't Let Go of Carriers 9:10 The Strategic Case for Fewer Carriers

Become a member to submit questions for future videos.  Click Join: https://www.youtube.com/@johnmearsheimer/join ———————————————————— PODCASTS Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Ahf67i2DOoXDmi2HA6Vcj Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id6810828298 ———————————————————— DESCRIPTION President Trump bears responsibility for three ongoing wars: 1) the Ukraine war, which he inherited from Joe Biden but now owns; 2) the Iran war, which he launched together with Israel on 28 February 2026; and 3) the war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which he encouraged the Saudis to initiate on 13 July 2026. Each of these wars carries a significant risk of dangerous escalation, and together they threaten to inflict serious damage on the international economy. To make matters worse, Trump has no strategy for ending these wars on terms favorable to the United States, much less achieving lasting peace. Even after the fighting stops, all three wars may well turn into frozen conflicts. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:29 Trump and his wars 1:57 Year one: Ukraine, the 12-day war and Venezuela 4:50 Why Ukraine is now Trump's war 6:30 Wars two and three: Iran and the Saudi–Houthi war 8:48 Why these wars are disasters 13:19 The great-power backdrop 15:29 The Iran war: where we are now 21:31 Iran: the danger of escalation 27:10 Iran: the economic damage 29:09 Iran: no way to win 31:21 Iran: a frozen conflict and the nuclear question 35:07 Iran: Russia and China 36:39 The Saudi–Houthi war: how it started 40:08 Saudi–Houthi: horizontal and vertical escalation 42:48 Saudi–Houthi: the economic stakes 45:09 Saudi–Houthi: the Saudis can't win 46:24 Saudi–Houthi: a frozen conflict 49:45 Will Saudi Arabia go nuclear? 51:22 The Ukraine war: where we are now 54:17 Ukraine: escalation in the air war 59:02 The Karaganov argument 1:04:48 Ukraine: the international economy 1:06:45 Ukraine: no winning strategy 1:07:52 Ukraine: the frozen conflict 1:10:54 Great-power politics across all three wars 1:16:23 Summing up: three losing wars 1:19:25 An LBJ/Nixon fate for Trump? 1:20:29 Why Gaza isn't on the list ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

In this Ask the Professor, YouTube channel member @boresow asks how I separate real insight from propaganda after my visit to Russia, and whether I’m being used to amplify Moscow’s narrative. I make two points. First, a scholar should talk to people he disagrees with, whether that’s Viktor Orbán, Sergei Lavrov, or Vladimir Putin. Second, my view that NATO expansion caused the Ukraine war came from studying the evidence, not from talking to the Russians. It happens to match their view, but I didn’t adopt it to win their favor.

YouTube channel member ⁠ @GuanWang-n2g ⁠ asks: why did Washington never devote the resources needed to carry out the pivot to Asia that the Obama administration announced in 2011? My answer is that pivoting to Asia means containing China, and in 2011 we were still pursuing engagement, helping China get rich. The pivot only really began in 2017, when China had become a great power and Trump adopted containment. Since then, the wars in Ukraine and Iran have pulled forces out of East Asia. The pivot to Asia has turned into a pivot away from Asia, which is a huge mistake.

YouTube channel member ⁠@sambaker7691 ⁠ asks: how do you explain the shortcomings in U.S. efforts to give Saudi Arabia the air defenses it needs against Houthi missile and drone attacks, despite the close strategic partnership between the two countries? My answer is that this isn’t about the relationship. The Saudis are rich, and we’ve sold them almost all the weaponry they want. The problem is that today, offense beats defense. Even with heavy American help, Israel couldn’t stop Iranian missiles and drones in the 12-Day War or in the 40-day bombing campaign that started the current war. Ukraine has run out of Patriots. Offensive missiles are cheaper than interceptors and can overwhelm them. The United States can’t protect Saudi Arabia, and it won’t be able to defend any bases it might rebuild in the Persian Gulf either.

October 7, 2026, marked the third anniversary of Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel. Considerable attention was devoted to commemorating that event in Israel and throughout the West. The focus was mainly on three questions: 1) What happened that day? 2) Why was Israel caught by surprise? 3) What have been the consequences of that momentous day?    Much less attention was paid to a fundamental question: Why did Hamas launch the attack in the first place? Indeed, this relative neglect of the attack’s root causes has characterized much of the public discussion of October 7 from the beginning.   Israel and its supporters, however, have a straightforward explanation. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas and its allies are “the new Nazis,” and October 7 was an unprovoked attack that Israeli leaders and much of the Israeli public have repeatedly compared to the Holocaust. In other words, the attack is understood primarily as an expression of genocidal antisemitism.   In this episode, I examine that explanation and argue that it is fundamentally mistaken. The historical record and a careful examination of Hamas’s motives point toward a very different story, which I believe is why Israel and its supporters have paid little attention to discussing the political and strategic calculations that led Hamas to attack Israel on October 7, 2023. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:26 The question nobody asks: why did Hamas attack? 2:01 The Israeli story: Hamas as "the new Nazis" 5:08 The old story: "a land without people" 8:28 The new historians rewrite the record 9:53 The real Zionist goal: a Greater Israel 11:00 The numbers: a land full of Palestinians 13:57 "They're going to have to steal the land" 15:34 Palestinian resistance, from 1936 to Gaza 17:56 Jabotinsky and Ben-Gurion: "We have stolen their country" 20:45 A Palestinian population that never went away 24:21 Option 1: the Iron Wall 26:00 Option 2: ethnic cleansing 28:54 Option 3: Bantustans and ghettos 30:38 The myth of the two-state solution 32:45 Gaza: occupation, settlers and Sharon's pullout 36:30 The blockade: Gaza on a diet 38:34 Assassinating Gaza's leaders 40:22 "Mowing the lawn": Cast Lead and Protective Edge 44:25 October 7th: the inmates break out 46:22 Hamas wants its land back 49:46 Read the history 51:11 Was the attack legal under international law? ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

DESCRIPTION YouTube Channel member @edhodapp6465 asks: should we go to war against the Houthis, and is damaging Iran's proxies a worthwhile strategy? My answer is no. We're at war with Iran, but we're not fighting the Houthis. They're fighting Saudi Arabia. We already failed to beat them in 2025, and after the war with Iran, we have even fewer munitions now. The Houthis can hit Saudi oil infrastructure and control the Bab el-Mandeb strait. And if we started winning, I believe Iran would step in. The U.S. has no winning strategy in the Gulf. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:04 Should we go to war against the Houthis? 0:47 Two separate wars: US vs. Iran, Houthis vs. Saudi Arabia 2:07 Trump's failed 2025 campaign against the Houthis 3:13 Should the US join Saudi Arabia against the Houthis? 3:41 Why the Houthis are a real threat (Bab el-Mandeb) 4:25 Why the answer is no: we can't win, and we're short on munitions 6:29 Houthi retaliation and Saudi oil infrastructure 8:03 What if the US were winning? Iran would step in 9:08 Conclusion: no winning strategy in the Middle East ————————————————————

YouTube Channel member ⁠@spacecometrue ⁠ asked me to share my analysis of the causes and course of the Korean War. North Korea invaded the South on June 25, 1950, and nearly won before the U.S. stepped in. MacArthur's Inchon landing pushed the North Koreans back to the 38th parallel. When we crossed it and headed for the Yalu River, China entered the war in October 1950, and from that point it was really a war between the U.S. and China. It ended in an armistice in July 1953, not a peace agreement. I also explain why each side fought. North Korea wanted to unify the peninsula. The U.S. came in after Dean Acheson's blunder, because a Soviet ally controlling Korea threatened Japan and Northeast Asia. China found U.S. troops on its border unacceptable, much as Russia saw Ukraine in NATO. I also cover how the war militarized the Cold War, and why I think the Korean Peninsula is stable today despite North Korea's nuclear weapons. ————————————————————  CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: 0:04 A member's question on Korea 0:41 How the Korean War unfolded 1:36 The U.S. enters and the Inchon landing 2:08 Crossing the 38th parallel 3:15 China enters the war 4:31 Really a U.S.–China war, and the 1953 armistice 5:28 How Korea militarized the Cold War 6:55 Why North Korea invaded 8:27 Why the U.S. came in: Acheson's blunder 10:24 Why China came in 11:16 The Ukraine–NATO parallel 12:41 The Korean Peninsula today 14:01 Why North Korea's nukes are defensive 15:24 Verdict: another war is unlikely ————————————————————

DESCRIPTION It seems clear that the Trump administration and its allies are working overtime to create the false impression that the United States is well on its way to defeating Iran and that Tehran should therefore submit to American demands sooner rather than later. If it does not, so the argument goes, not only will the economic punishment inflicted on Iran reach crushing levels, but President Trump will launch a devastating military attack that might even include putting U.S. ground forces into Iran. I will argue in this episode that this is largely a propaganda campaign—and that it is unlikely to work because Iran, not the Trump administration, is in the driver’s seat. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:42 The Administration's Propaganda Campaign 3:41 A Two-Pronged Approach 4:12 The Economic Argument: Blockade & Bessent's Strategy 6:21 The Military Argument: More Troops & Carriers 8:48 Why the Story Is Deeply Flawed 9:16 Why a New Air Campaign Won't Work 10:51 The "Three Carriers" Myth 14:28 Striking Oil Infrastructure & Iran's Second Strike 15:35 The Ground Invasion: How Many Combat Troops? 20:23 What Can You Do With 7,500 Troops? 23:05 Body Bags & Getting the Marines Ashore 25:19 Will Economic Pain Make Iran Surrender? 26:28 Lesson of History: Blockades Alone Don't Win Wars 28:38 Facing an Existential Threat 29:23 Iran's Doomsday Option 31:14 Is the West Really Doing Well? 32:01 New Strait Attacks & the Houthi Threat to Saudi Oil 34:30 Oil Is Flowing, but Economies Are Still Hurting 36:01 Bottom Line ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

I'll explain how the Vietnam War shaped my thinking about international relations, and the lessons it holds for today.

I'll explain why I believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next decade is unlikely, and the one scenario that could change that.

President Trump and President Xi Jinping just concluded a three-day summit in Washington, DC, that was noteworthy for its lofty rhetoric and almost complete lack of progress in dealing with a host of truly important issues: AI, Iran, Taiwan, trade, and Ukraine. The Economist maintains that the two leaders “squandered a chance to tackle the world’s gravest threats,” which it argues “amounts to a dereliction of duty, and leaves the rest of humanity as the losers.” I disagree. I will review what happened at the summit regarding each of these issues and explain why, with the possible exception of trade, the underlying conflicts of interest between China and the United States leave little room for meaningful agreement.

Iuliia Mendel, who served as President Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, published an article in The Spectator on September 15, 2026, titled “Zelensky’s Strategy Is National Suicide.” In essence, she makes a compelling case that Ukraine is not simply losing its war with Russia but is being so thoroughly wrecked in the process that it is effectively committing national suicide.   Mendel made much the same case the following day, September 16, in a virtual address to an event at the European Parliament. She had intended to deliver the speech in person but was denied entry to the Parliament building and therefore had to appear virtually. Mendel attributes that decision to the sanctions President Zelensky had imposed on her three days earlier, although the European Parliament has not said why she was barred.   Mendel’s article and speech have generated substantial controversy, which is hardly surprising given the severity of her indictment and the fact that she served as Zelensky’s press secretary. My aim in this episode is to examine the arguments she makes in both her article and her European Parliament speech and explain why I think her description of what is happening to Ukraine is fundamentally correct.

I recently spent 8 days in Russia – September 5-12, 2026 – mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. I gave a series of talks and interviews and spoke with numerous people in the Russian security community, including senior figures like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In this episode, I describe what I learned during my trip.

Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick have just published a terrific new book called Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. It appears twenty years after Steve Walt and I published “The Israel Lobby” in The London Review of Books (March 2006), which we turned into a book a year later. Much has happened regarding Israel, the Israel lobby, and the US-Israeli relationship in the two decades since Steve and I first addressed those subjects. Clifton and Lustick do a great job explaining those fundamental changes. In this episode, I will discuss their new book and explain how it differs from what Steve and I wrote in our article and book on the lobby. ———————————————————— BUY THE BOOKS 1. Israel's Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power  by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/4gMNJey 2. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/3SL2M0o (As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.) ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:28 The book: Israel's Lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick 2:38 The core arguments 5:15 The conceptual framework: discourse vs. policy 7:29 Where the new book breaks from Mearsheimer & Walt 8:01 How the discourse changed: dual loyalty and "Israel Firsters" 12:42 The internet and the collapse of media gatekeeping 15:08 Israeli behavior after October 7th 17:45 Israel as a "crazy state" 22:11 Israeli identity: "a nation that dwells alone" 27:51 Why Americans turned on Israel 29:29 The lobby fights back: redefining antisemitism 32:54 Government crackdowns on campus protests 35:40 Plutocrats, Citizens United, and policy capture 39:11 The bottom line and the big question ahead 41:14 Closing thoughts ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.