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Retirement expenses can add up in unexpected ways, and nearly half of retirees say their costs are higher than anticipated. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores five commonly underestimated retirement expenses, from healthcare and long-term care to inflation, home maintenance, and supporting adult children. Understanding how these costs can change over time offers valuable perspective when estimating retirement expenses and preparing for the years ahead. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Five Underestimated Retirement Costs first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Midterm Elections and Market Volatility As we approach the 2026 midterm elections, market volatility has become a key concern for investors. Higher interest rates, rising oil prices, and political uncertainty have contributed to market fluctuations, while international developments, including protests in France and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, have added to the broader concerns facing financial markets. Historically, midterm election years have been characterized by market volatility. However, the current year’s market pullback has been relatively modest compared with historical averages. The S&P 500 experienced a 9.1% decline earlier in 2026, which is below the average peak-to-trough pullback typically seen during midterm election years. Seasonal market trends also offer an interesting perspective. Historically, late October has often marked a turning point when markets begin to perform more favorably. While there is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat, it provides useful context as investors navigate the final weeks before the election. Historical performance following midterm elections is another notable trend. Over the past 19 midterm election cycles, the S&P 500 has finished higher one year after each election. Although past performance cannot guarantee future results, this history reinforces the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective rather than reacting to short-term political developments. Market volatility often increases in the weeks leading up to an election, but a well-constructed investment strategy should be built around an individual’s financial goals and long-term plan. Staying the course with an investment strategy designed for a specific financial blueprint remains an important principle, even during periods of uncertainty. Global Elections, Interest Rates, and the Federal Reserve Financial markets do not operate in isolation. Events unfolding around the world can influence U.S. investments, interest rates, and investor sentiment, making global developments an important part of the economic outlook. One unexpected development has been the Brazilian election. The incumbent’s victory in a runoff election surprised many observers, and the Brazilian stock market reacted sharply. At the time of this analysis, the market was down approximately 26%, illustrating how political outcomes can create significant uncertainty for investors. Developments in international markets can also have implications for the United States. When investors become concerned about conditions in other countries, capital may flow into U.S. financial markets, including Treasury securities. These movements can affect interest rates and influence the broader investment environment. Brazil’s position as a major economy in the Western Hemisphere makes its political and economic developments particularly relevant. Political developments in Israel and elsewhere also have the potential to influence geopolitical conditions, energy prices, and financial markets. These global considerations are especially important as the Federal Reserve prepares to evaluate the economy and determine its next steps on monetary policy. Interest rates remain a central focus. In 2025, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was cutting short-term interest rates, longer-term rates, including the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates, moved higher. This divergence suggested that financial markets were responding to economic conditions and inflation expectations differently than the Federal Reserve’s short-term policy adjustments alone might indicate. More recently, the 10-year Treasury yield initially moved higher following the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase, rising above 5.3%. However, subsequent global developments have contributed to a decline in yields, bringing the 10-year Treasury back below 5% at the time of this analysis. These movements highlight the relationship between global uncertainty, investor demand for Treasury securities, and interest rates. While the Federal Reserve influences short-term rates, longer-term rates also reflect market expectations, inflation concerns, and international capital flows. As the Federal Reserve evaluates incoming economic data, it must consider the broader global environment alongside domestic conditions. Additional rate increases could have implications for borrowing costs, economic activity, and investment markets, particularly if global uncertainty continues to put downward pressure on longer-term yields. With international elections, the upcoming U.S. midterms, and a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting all occurring within a short period, investors face several interconnected developments. Monitoring these factors and understanding their potential effects on the economy will remain important as the year progresses. Economic Stimulus: From 2026 to 2027 As 2026 draws to a close, attention is beginning to shift toward the level of economic stimulus expected in 2027. Stimulus generally refers to policies or actions that introduce additional money into the economy or encourage spending and economic activity. It can take several forms, including tax changes, monetary policy, government spending, and direct payments to consumers. Economic stimulus can support consumer spending, business activity, and gross domestic product (GDP). In 2026, an estimated $600 billion in stimulus helped support economic activity despite challenges such as elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Several factors contributed to this supportive environment. Tax changes associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill provided a fiscal boost, while an estimated $150 billion in tariff refunds also added support. In addition, Federal Reserve policy remained relatively accommodative for much of the year. The Fed’s balance-sheet expansion involved purchasing securities and adding liquidity to the financial system, which helped support financial conditions. Together, these fiscal and monetary factors created a meaningful level of economic support throughout 2026. The outlook for 2027, however, points to a significant change. Current estimates discussed by research partners suggest that stimulus could fall from approximately $600 billion in 2026 to just $5 billion in 2027. If those estimates hold, the economy would face a substantial reduction in this source of support. Several developments help explain the projected decline. The Federal Reserve has shifted toward a tighter monetary policy stance, with additional interest rate increases anticipated in the outlook discussed. The Fed is also no longer expanding its balance sheet, reducing the additional liquidity that had supported financial conditions. Meanwhile, tariff refunds are largely winding down, and the tax legislation enacted in 2026 is expected to provide a smaller incremental stimulus effect in 2027. Other policy decisions, including potential changes in defense spending or additional government initiatives, could partially offset the decline. However, the overall outlook suggests that the economy may have considerably less stimulus to support growth in the coming year. This transition is worth monitoring, particularly if oil prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions continue to affect economic conditions. Without the same level of stimulus, businesses may need to rely more heavily on productivity gains, workforce growth, and operational efficiency to sustain economic expansion. The shift from a stimulus-supported environment to one with substantially less support could influence market expectations, corporate earnings, and economic growth. As 2027 approaches, understanding these changes will be important when evaluating the factors that may shape financial markets.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Trick or Treat: Markets, Elections, and Stimulus first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Housing Market Faces Continued Pressure from Higher Rates Higher interest rates continue to weigh on the housing market, creating challenges for buyers, sellers, and the broader economy. As of October 19, 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at approximately 7.25%, after rising above 7% in mid-September. While that remains below the 8.1% peak reached in October 2023, continued pressure in the Treasury market could push rates higher. One of the biggest obstacles facing the housing market is the widening gap between current mortgage rates and the lower rates many existing homeowners secured in previous years. Homeowners who refinanced at rates in the upper 2% to lower 3% range have little financial incentive to sell and take on a significantly more expensive mortgage. This lock-in effect limits the supply of existing homes, leaving new construction to help fill the gap. However, new home sales would need to accelerate considerably to offset the shortage. Rather than experiencing a complete collapse, the housing market has remained constrained by elevated borrowing costs and softer demand. The median price of a new single-family home has declined, although prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Conditions also vary significantly by region, with sales weakening in the West and Northeast while the South has demonstrated greater resilience. The implications extend beyond real estate. Residential investment is expected to subtract approximately 0.3 percentage points from economic growth, placing greater responsibility on business investment and consumer spending to sustain the expansion. With interest rates likely to remain elevated, housing is not positioned to become a major driver of economic growth in the near term. Although today’s mortgage rates present challenges, historical perspective is important. Mortgage rates exceeded 10% in 1987, when Greg Powell and his wife purchased their first home. Interest rate cycles have always presented obstacles, but the economy and housing market have adapted over time. Today’s environment requires careful consideration of affordability and market conditions rather than viewing current rates in isolation. Rising Rates Put Pressure on Technology Stocks and AI Investment Last week’s inflation reports added another layer of uncertainty to the financial markets. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected, contributing to a sharp increase in long-term interest rates. The effects extended beyond mortgage rates and into the technology sector, where the NASDAQ declined 4.5% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished higher. The divergence reflects a changing dynamic in the technology industry, particularly as companies invest heavily in artificial intelligence (AI). For much of the past two decades, many technology companies operated with relatively asset-light business models and limited dependence on debt financing. As a result, interest rate movements often had a less direct effect on their operations. That dynamic is changing. While AI has the potential to improve productivity, reduce costs, and support broader economic growth, building the infrastructure required to deliver those benefits demands substantial investment. Data centers, computing capacity, and the energy needed to power them require significant financial resources, much of which may involve borrowing. As interest rates rise, financing these projects becomes more expensive. Investors are increasingly evaluating whether the expected returns from AI infrastructure investments will justify the higher costs of building and operating that capacity. With the 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5.3% and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel during the period, both major inputs for AI expansion, capital and energy, became more expensive. Those pressures contributed to the sell-off in technology stocks. Looking ahead, there are signs that conditions may be stabilizing. The 10-year Treasury yield had eased to approximately 5.07% by the morning of October 19, providing some relief after its recent increase. Investors are also turning their attention to corporate earnings, with approximately 70 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results during the week. Earnings season offers an opportunity to evaluate actual business performance rather than relying solely on expectations about future growth. As companies report revenue, profitability, and forward guidance, investors will gain additional insight into how businesses are navigating higher borrowing costs and the substantial investment required to develop AI capabilities. The relationship between interest rates, energy costs, and technology investment remains an important area to monitor. While AI may deliver meaningful long-term economic benefits, the pace and cost of building the infrastructure behind it will influence how investors value the companies leading that transformation. The Bull Market Enters Its Fifth Year October 12 marked the fourth anniversary of the current bull market, which began in October 2022. Now entering its fifth year, the market has continued to advance despite an extended period of elevated interest rates and several periods of heightened volatility. The downturn in 2022 was driven in large part by the rapid increase in interest rates, which moved from near zero to approximately 5%. Since then, investors and businesses have had to adjust to a substantially different borrowing environment. Despite those challenges, the market has demonstrated resilience and continued to grow. The path has not been without setbacks. In April 2025, stocks approached the 20% decline commonly used to define a bear market, coming close to ending the bull market’s run. However, the market did not cross that threshold and subsequently continued its advance. Historical performance offers one perspective on what may lie ahead. Over approximately the past 70 years, there have been about seven instances in which a bull market reached its fifth year after advancing through the first four. In those historical examples, fifth-year performance averaged approximately 14%, with all but one period producing positive returns. The exception was the 1957–1961 bull market, which included a period of significant geopolitical uncertainty surrounding events such as the Cuban Missile Crisis. The current bull market’s performance over its first four years has been strong and broadly consistent with historical patterns. While these comparisons provide useful context, historical results do not guarantee future performance. Every market cycle unfolds under different economic, political, and financial conditions. As the market enters its fifth year, investors will continue to navigate interest rate movements, corporate earnings, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Historical trends can help frame expectations, but maintaining perspective and evaluating current conditions remain essential to understanding the market’s direction.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Rates Up, NASDAQ Down first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

As the end of the year approaches, a few important financial items deserve a spot on your checklist. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Adam Vansant and Sonja McGittigan cover IRA contributions, required minimum distributions (RMDs), charitable giving opportunities, and simple ways to organize your financial documents before tax season. Watch to learn more. Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Sonja McGittigan Operations Specialist Email Sonja McGittigan here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Preparing for Year-End first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Assessing Recession Risks and Federal Reserve Rate Increases Are Higher Interest Rates and Oil Prices Signaling a Recession? The short answer is that a recession is not our base-case expectation at this time. Our current recession checklist suggests approximately a 25% chance of a significant economic downturn as we close out 2026 and head into 2027. We monitor eight leading economic indicators to assess potential recession risks. Currently, only two are raising concerns: single-family housing permits and consumer expectations. Single-family housing permits have remained a concern throughout much of the year, largely due to higher mortgage rates, which can make homeownership more expensive and weigh on housing demand. Consumer expectations have also declined amid higher oil prices and borrowing costs, reflecting increased pressure on household finances and confidence. The remaining six indicators are not signaling significant concerns at this time. Measures related to capital expenditures, the labor market, and financial conditions appear more solid, providing some reassurance about the economy’s underlying strength. Although economic growth could slow, the broader set of indicators does not currently point to a significant downturn as the most likely outcome. Based on our assessment, we place the probability of a significant recession-related disruption at approximately 25%. This outlook is not a guarantee that the economy will avoid a recession. Economic conditions can change, and leading indicators should continue to be monitored. However, the current data suggest that the risks remain relatively contained rather than pointing to an imminent and severe economic contraction. How Could Federal Reserve Rate Increases Affect Stocks and Bonds? Another frequent question concerns how the stock and bond markets have historically responded when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Historical market performance following rate increases offers useful perspective. Looking at returns over the 65-, 125-, and 250-day periods following Federal Reserve rate hikes, bonds have generally experienced a more negative impact than stocks. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on existing bond prices because newly issued bonds may offer more attractive yields. Stocks, however, have not consistently produced negative returns following Federal Reserve rate increases. Historical average returns for the S&P 500 over the periods examined have actually been positive. This highlights an important distinction: Higher interest rates can create challenges for financial markets, but they do not automatically lead to declining stock prices. Certain market sectors have also historically performed well following rate increases, including energy, particularly oil, and gold. These patterns provide context for understanding how different investments may respond to changing economic and monetary conditions, although past performance does not guarantee future results. The key takeaway is that investors do not necessarily need to fear Federal Reserve rate increases. Instead, maintaining a diversified portfolio and using active management where appropriate can help manage volatility as market conditions evolve. Taken together, the current recession indicators and historical market data reinforce the importance of evaluating economic developments within a broader context rather than reacting to individual headlines. While risks remain, neither the possibility of a recession nor a Federal Reserve rate increase should automatically dictate an investor’s decisions.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Answering Client Questions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Financial rules of thumb can be helpful starting points, but they are not one-size-fits-all answers. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ty Miller breaks down four common financial rules, including the Rule of 72, the 4% retirement rule, the three-to-six-month emergency fund guideline, and the 100-minus-your-age rule, exploring where they can provide useful perspective and where your individual circumstances matter more. Watch to learn more. Ty Miller Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Financial Rules of Thumb first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Higher Yields and the Economic Outlook Treasury yields are rising amid higher oil prices and stronger expectations for economic growth. The current sell-off closely resembles the move higher in rates during the fall of 2023. While that period does not necessarily serve as a base case for today’s market, historical comparisons suggest the 10-year Treasury yield could potentially reach 5.5% or higher if the current trend continues. Yields briefly declined following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, but that move may not signal a sustained change in direction. The broader environment continues to point toward the possibility of interest rates remaining higher for longer. The key question is how those higher rates compare with the underlying strength of the economy, both in the United States and abroad. Growth, Global Rates and the Bigger Picture One of the important dynamics in the current environment is the separation between short-term and long-term interest rates. Economic growth is an important indicator of sustainable long-term interest rates, and the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate solid GDP growth. Real GDP growth measures the growth of the economy after accounting for inflation. When inflation is added back, the result is nominal GDP growth. If nominal economic growth is faster than the cost of borrowing, an economy can effectively grow its way out of its debt burden. The greater concern arises when interest rates begin to exceed nominal GDP growth. Currently, 10-year Treasury yields are just above 5%, which remains below the pace of nominal GDP growth expected in the most recent quarter. That makes higher rates less concerning for the United States than they are for some international economies. The recent jobs report provides another example of the difference between short- and long-term rates. The weaker-than-expected employment data caused expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October to fall sharply, from roughly an 80% probability to about 20%. Short-term rates responded by moving lower, but long-term rates did not follow to the same degree. Economic growth is one reason. Global interest rates are another. Higher rates are becoming a broader international issue, particularly in Europe, where countries face slower economic growth and different fiscal constraints. Interest rates in countries such as France, Germany and Italy have moved considerably higher over the past year. The structure of the euro also creates an additional challenge. Unlike the United States, individual eurozone countries do not control the currency in which their debt is issued. The U.S. issues debt in dollars, the same currency controlled by the U.S. government. France, Italy and Germany issue debt in euros, but the euro is managed at the broader eurozone level. That difference can leave individual European countries more vulnerable when interest rates rise sharply because they do not have the same ability to respond through monetary policy or currency issuance. These international developments are important for U.S. investors to monitor. Higher rates overseas can create a floor for U.S. long-term yields because investors can compare the relative return available in different markets and currencies. Even if U.S. growth remains strong or long-term rates begin to decline, developments abroad could limit how far U.S. yields fall. Much of the discussion around interest rates has focused on the U.S. deficit, Treasury issuance and the supply of government bonds. Those are important considerations, but the global rate environment cannot be overlooked. Rising rates and slower growth overseas could become an increasingly important factor for U.S. markets and may provide an early signal of broader financial stress. Periods of uncertainty and volatility can also create investment opportunities. For that reason, global interest rates and developments in international markets remain areas to watch closely.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Interest Rates on the Move first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Retirement income can come from several different sources, each with its own tax considerations and role in a retirement strategy. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Mark Hume walks through seven potential sources of retirement income, from non-retirement and Roth assets to Social Security, pensions, and deferred compensation. Understanding how these pieces fit together can provide valuable context when planning for a sustainable retirement income strategy. Watch to learn more. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Funnels of Retirement Income first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Election Volatility Comes Into Focus With 36 days remaining until the midterm elections, the market is entering a period that has historically been associated with increased volatility. Midterm election years have traditionally been the most volatile portion of the four-year presidential cycle. The first year following a presidential election is often characterized by optimism surrounding a new administration, while the second year tends to bring greater uncertainty and expectations for policy changes. Historically, the period following the midterm elections has often been followed by a market rally. This year, however, the market has demonstrated considerably more resilience than historical patterns might suggest. The S&P 500 closely tracked its typical presidential-cycle pattern through the previous year before diverging over the summer. Rather than experiencing the weakness often associated with the months leading into a midterm election, the market posted a relatively strong summer. The market’s response to geopolitical developments has also been notable. Following the sell-off tied to tensions surrounding the Iran war earlier in the year, stocks rallied, demonstrating continued resilience despite a challenging backdrop. As the election approaches, some of the effects of rising political uncertainty are becoming more visible beneath the surface of the broader market. While the overall U.S. stock market has historically performed under administrations from both political parties, individual sectors can respond differently to anticipated policy changes. One area worth watching is the industrial sector. Ongoing discussions surrounding data-center development, the reindustrialization of the United States and tax incentives designed to encourage industrial investment have been important catalysts for the sector. In recent weeks, industrial stocks have declined relative to the broader S&P 500 as the perceived likelihood of a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress has increased. The relationship is worth monitoring because a change in political control could influence the pace of data-center development and the future of certain tax incentives supporting industrial investment. While these trends do not provide a basis for predicting the outcome of either the election or the market, they offer insight into how expectations surrounding policy can influence individual areas of the market. As the election approaches, continued monitoring of these developments can help identify areas of potential downside risk and inform portfolio decisions as conditions evolve. Reasons for Optimism Despite the concerns facing investors, several underlying economic and corporate indicators provide reasons for optimism. One of the most encouraging developments is the strength of corporate profit margins. Profit margins have reached record levels, and there is a direct relationship between corporate profitability and the valuation of the S&P 500. Strong margins suggest that corporate America remains fundamentally healthy, providing an important foundation for current market valuations. The labor market also continues to demonstrate historical strength. Employment remains an important driver of consumer spending, and continued employment growth supports household income and spending throughout the economy. Personal incomes have also turned higher, providing another positive signal for consumer activity. When employment and income remain resilient, consumers generally have greater capacity to maintain spending, which can help support broader economic growth. Beyond consumers, industrial production remains strong, while manufacturing and trade sales have continued to show encouraging results. These measures provide additional evidence that economic activity remains resilient despite the uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates, energy prices and the upcoming election. The current concerns facing markets should not be overlooked. However, focusing exclusively on the negative headlines can obscure some of the positive developments taking place beneath the surface of the economy and financial markets. These indicators serve as important reminders that market conditions are influenced by a wide range of factors. While uncertainty and volatility remain part of the current environment, corporate profitability, employment, personal income, industrial production, manufacturing and trade activity all provide reasons to maintain perspective. There are legitimate concerns to monitor, but there are also meaningful signs of underlying strength. Looking beyond the headlines and considering both sides of the market landscape can provide a more complete picture of the current environment.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Charts of Optimism first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Financial markets around the world are more connected to the U.S. economy than you may realize. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores how foreign capital flows, currency fluctuations, global market stress and international investing can influence everything from U.S. interest rates and inflation to market volatility and portfolio diversification. As global markets become increasingly interconnected, understanding these relationships can provide important context for investors. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post How Impactful are Foreign Financial Markets on the U.S. Economy? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Understanding the Supply Shock The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates in line with market expectations. Because interest rates had already moved higher ahead of the decision, the increase itself was largely anticipated and had already been reflected in financial markets. The move also followed rate increases from other major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. The more important question is what comes next. Historically, raising interest rates can be an effective tool for addressing inflation caused by strong demand. Higher borrowing costs make it more expensive to finance purchases, which can encourage consumers and businesses to delay spending. In turn, that reduces current demand and can help bring supply and demand back into balance. This creates a challenge when inflation is being driven by a supply shock. The current pressure in oil markets is an example. The issue is not necessarily that consumers suddenly want more gasoline. Rather, there is a constraint on the amount of oil available. Consumers still need to purchase gasoline even when prices rise, meaning higher interest rates do little to address the underlying supply shortage. That creates a difficult combination. Interest rate increases raise the cost of borrowing at the same time that the cost of essential goods and energy is increasing. If the current rate increase remains a one-time move, its impact may be relatively limited. A prolonged rate-hiking cycle, however, could create additional pressure without directly addressing the supply-side factors driving prices higher. Another development to watch is the relationship between the United States and China, particularly as the two countries navigate the global energy market. China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers and also produces significant amounts of refined petroleum products for export. Discussions between the two countries could have implications for global energy supply, tariffs and other geopolitical issues. The combination of energy prices, monetary policy and geopolitical developments makes the coming months an important period for investors to monitor. The Impact of Energy on Inflation Energy prices are one of the most visible ways consumers experience inflation. With gasoline prices around $4 per gallon in the Birmingham area and higher prices being seen across much of the country, energy costs are increasingly noticeable in household budgets. Consumers are particularly sensitive to gasoline prices because there is not always an immediate substitute. Higher prices can therefore have a direct impact on day-to-day spending and become an increasingly prominent part of the broader inflation discussion. One important measure to understand is Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE. PCE measures the prices paid by U.S. consumers for goods and services and is one of the inflation measures closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Energy spending currently represents roughly 4% of total U.S. PCE. That percentage is significantly lower than it was during some previous periods, including the 1980s and early 2000s, when energy represented a much larger share of consumer expenditures. That distinction is important when considering the global impact of higher oil prices. While U.S. consumers certainly feel higher energy costs, the effect can be substantially greater in emerging economies where households devote a larger portion of their disposable income to energy. The total amount the United States spends on oil also provides useful perspective. U.S. oil consumption has generally remained around 20 million barrels per day in recent years, outside of the unusual conditions of 2020. At an average price per barrel, that translates into hundreds of billions of dollars in annual oil expenditures. When oil prices rise, the total amount spent on energy increases significantly even if consumption remains relatively steady. At approximately $80 per barrel, for example, annual expenditures are substantially higher than at lower price levels. At $100 per barrel, the increase becomes even more pronounced. That additional spending has broader economic implications because more consumer and business dollars are directed toward energy rather than other goods and services. As the year progresses, the path of oil prices will therefore remain an important factor in the inflation outlook. If energy prices remain elevated, consumers are likely to continue feeling that pressure, particularly as the economy moves toward the midterm election year.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Shocks and Demand first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Financial independence comes with plenty of new financial decisions, and a few common missteps can make managing money more challenging than it needs to be. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Robert Moody breaks down five money mistakes young adults often encounter, from skipping a budget to misusing credit and putting off saving. He also shares practical habits that can help build a stronger financial foundation over time. Watch to learn more. Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Robert Moody here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Five Money Mistakes Young People Should Avoid first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

How Higher Rates Are Affecting Bonds The Federal Reserve has taken a measured approach to communicating its policy intentions, allowing the market to lead rather than trying to guide it with specific forecasts. That dynamic appears to be playing out as the market has already priced in much of the expected rate increase. Over the past month, the two-year Treasury yield has increased 46 basis points, the one-year yield has risen 34 basis points, and the three-month Treasury yield, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate controlled by the Fed, has increased 24 basis points. This represents a relatively healthy relationship between the Federal Reserve and the markets, with market expectations pulling the Fed forward rather than the Fed pushing markets in a particular direction. Traditionally, the Fed raises interest rates to slow economic growth and reduce inflation. The challenge this time is that inflation is being driven largely by higher oil prices rather than excessive economic growth. As a result, higher interest rates could slow economic activity while elevated oil prices are putting additional pressure on consumers. For consumers, that could create a double impact. Higher oil prices can reduce disposable income, while higher interest rates increase borrowing costs. For investors, however, higher rates can provide a benefit. Interest rates represent what borrowers pay, but that interest is income for investors. With roughly $7 trillion in money market assets in the U.S., a 25-basis-point increase would provide a meaningful boost to interest earned by savers. Ultimately, higher rates are likely to be a net positive for savers and a net negative for borrowers. How those effects ultimately flow through to the stock market will be important to watch. What History Tells Us About Stocks History can provide some perspective on how stocks have responded to previous Federal Reserve tightening cycles. Looking at the S&P 500 following the initial rate hikes across the six tightening cycles since 1994, stocks have generally struggled during the first several months following the initial increase. On average, returns were negative through the first four months before improving significantly five to six months after the initial hike. However, there have been notable exceptions. Following the initial rate hike in March 2022, the S&P 500 fell over the subsequent two months and remained down for more than 12 months. That period presented a uniquely difficult backdrop, with long-term interest rates rising from historically low levels as inflation surged to multi-decade highs following the pandemic. The Federal Reserve was forced to tighten aggressively after initially viewing inflation as transitory. Its history of continuing to raise rates until something breaks also contributed to fears that a recession was approaching. The stock market ultimately experienced a roughly 25% drawdown, consistent with the kind of decline investors might expect during a recession, although the U.S. economy did not technically enter one in 2022. The environment today is notably different. Another important exception occurred in 1997. Stocks significantly outperformed the other tightening cycles, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 8% two months after the initial hike and approximately 42% one year later. The dot-com boom and optimism surrounding the internet helped propel stocks higher despite rising interest rates. That period offers an interesting comparison to today’s environment, where enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence plays a similar role. Revolutionary technology can, at least for a time, outweigh the effects of higher interest rates. Another rate hike in 1999 was followed by another strong 12-month gain in the S&P 500, illustrating how long the technology bubble continued to inflate before eventually bursting in 2000. The key lesson from these historical cycles is that rate hikes do not necessarily derail bull markets. The picture changes when rising rates coincide with increasing recession risk. Today, recession risks remain relatively low. Economic growth is solid, the labor market remains healthy, and while inflation is still elevated, it is well below the levels seen in 2022. At the same time, interest rates have already moved substantially higher, which may reduce the shock to bond portfolios from additional modest increases in market-based rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield. While history does not provide a perfect blueprint for what comes next, today’s combination of economic resilience and moderating inflation looks more like the late 1990s than the challenges of 2022. That does not mean investors should expect another 40% rally. It does suggest that the current economic backdrop remains supportive for equities, even if markets experience volatility in the weeks and months ahead as investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s path.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post How Will Stocks React? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Saving even a modest amount each month can add up over time, with the potential impact shaped by consistency, time, and investment returns. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Bobby Norman explores how starting early and allowing compounded growth to work over the long term can influence the value of regular savings. Watch to learn more. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post The Importance of Saving Early first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

AI is no longer just transforming manufacturing and technology. From banking and healthcare to customer service and accounting, AI is reshaping the “back office” jobs that have long provided a path to the middle class, creating both challenges and new opportunities along the way. In this week’s Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores which roles are changing most quickly and what this evolution could mean for workers, businesses, and the broader economy. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Is AI Replacing America’s Back Office? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.