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Higher Yields and the Economic Outlook Treasury yields are rising amid higher oil prices and stronger expectations for economic growth. The current sell-off closely resembles the move higher in rates during the fall of 2023. While that period does not necessarily serve as a base case for today’s market, historical comparisons suggest the 10-year Treasury yield could potentially reach 5.5% or higher if the current trend continues. Yields briefly declined following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, but that move may not signal a sustained change in direction. The broader environment continues to point toward the possibility of interest rates remaining higher for longer. The key question is how those higher rates compare with the underlying strength of the economy, both in the United States and abroad. Growth, Global Rates and the Bigger Picture One of the important dynamics in the current environment is the separation between short-term and long-term interest rates. Economic growth is an important indicator of sustainable long-term interest rates, and the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate solid GDP growth. Real GDP growth measures the growth of the economy after accounting for inflation. When inflation is added back, the result is nominal GDP growth. If nominal economic growth is faster than the cost of borrowing, an economy can effectively grow its way out of its debt burden. The greater concern arises when interest rates begin to exceed nominal GDP growth. Currently, 10-year Treasury yields are just above 5%, which remains below the pace of nominal GDP growth expected in the most recent quarter. That makes higher rates less concerning for the United States than they are for some international economies. The recent jobs report provides another example of the difference between short- and long-term rates. The weaker-than-expected employment data caused expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October to fall sharply, from roughly an 80% probability to about 20%. Short-term rates responded by moving lower, but long-term rates did not follow to the same degree. Economic growth is one reason. Global interest rates are another. Higher rates are becoming a broader international issue, particularly in Europe, where countries face slower economic growth and different fiscal constraints. Interest rates in countries such as France, Germany and Italy have moved considerably higher over the past year. The structure of the euro also creates an additional challenge. Unlike the United States, individual eurozone countries do not control the currency in which their debt is issued. The U.S. issues debt in dollars, the same currency controlled by the U.S. government. France, Italy and Germany issue debt in euros, but the euro is managed at the broader eurozone level. That difference can leave individual European countries more vulnerable when interest rates rise sharply because they do not have the same ability to respond through monetary policy or currency issuance. These international developments are important for U.S. investors to monitor. Higher rates overseas can create a floor for U.S. long-term yields because investors can compare the relative return available in different markets and currencies. Even if U.S. growth remains strong or long-term rates begin to decline, developments abroad could limit how far U.S. yields fall. Much of the discussion around interest rates has focused on the U.S. deficit, Treasury issuance and the supply of government bonds. Those are important considerations, but the global rate environment cannot be overlooked. Rising rates and slower growth overseas could become an increasingly important factor for U.S. markets and may provide an early signal of broader financial stress. Periods of uncertainty and volatility can also create investment opportunities. For that reason, global interest rates and developments in international markets remain areas to watch closely.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Interest Rates on the Move first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Retirement income can come from several different sources, each with its own tax considerations and role in a retirement strategy. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Mark Hume walks through seven potential sources of retirement income, from non-retirement and Roth assets to Social Security, pensions, and deferred compensation. Understanding how these pieces fit together can provide valuable context when planning for a sustainable retirement income strategy. Watch to learn more. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Funnels of Retirement Income first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Election Volatility Comes Into Focus With 36 days remaining until the midterm elections, the market is entering a period that has historically been associated with increased volatility. Midterm election years have traditionally been the most volatile portion of the four-year presidential cycle. The first year following a presidential election is often characterized by optimism surrounding a new administration, while the second year tends to bring greater uncertainty and expectations for policy changes. Historically, the period following the midterm elections has often been followed by a market rally. This year, however, the market has demonstrated considerably more resilience than historical patterns might suggest. The S&P 500 closely tracked its typical presidential-cycle pattern through the previous year before diverging over the summer. Rather than experiencing the weakness often associated with the months leading into a midterm election, the market posted a relatively strong summer. The market’s response to geopolitical developments has also been notable. Following the sell-off tied to tensions surrounding the Iran war earlier in the year, stocks rallied, demonstrating continued resilience despite a challenging backdrop. As the election approaches, some of the effects of rising political uncertainty are becoming more visible beneath the surface of the broader market. While the overall U.S. stock market has historically performed under administrations from both political parties, individual sectors can respond differently to anticipated policy changes. One area worth watching is the industrial sector. Ongoing discussions surrounding data-center development, the reindustrialization of the United States and tax incentives designed to encourage industrial investment have been important catalysts for the sector. In recent weeks, industrial stocks have declined relative to the broader S&P 500 as the perceived likelihood of a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress has increased. The relationship is worth monitoring because a change in political control could influence the pace of data-center development and the future of certain tax incentives supporting industrial investment. While these trends do not provide a basis for predicting the outcome of either the election or the market, they offer insight into how expectations surrounding policy can influence individual areas of the market. As the election approaches, continued monitoring of these developments can help identify areas of potential downside risk and inform portfolio decisions as conditions evolve. Reasons for Optimism Despite the concerns facing investors, several underlying economic and corporate indicators provide reasons for optimism. One of the most encouraging developments is the strength of corporate profit margins. Profit margins have reached record levels, and there is a direct relationship between corporate profitability and the valuation of the S&P 500. Strong margins suggest that corporate America remains fundamentally healthy, providing an important foundation for current market valuations. The labor market also continues to demonstrate historical strength. Employment remains an important driver of consumer spending, and continued employment growth supports household income and spending throughout the economy. Personal incomes have also turned higher, providing another positive signal for consumer activity. When employment and income remain resilient, consumers generally have greater capacity to maintain spending, which can help support broader economic growth. Beyond consumers, industrial production remains strong, while manufacturing and trade sales have continued to show encouraging results. These measures provide additional evidence that economic activity remains resilient despite the uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates, energy prices and the upcoming election. The current concerns facing markets should not be overlooked. However, focusing exclusively on the negative headlines can obscure some of the positive developments taking place beneath the surface of the economy and financial markets. These indicators serve as important reminders that market conditions are influenced by a wide range of factors. While uncertainty and volatility remain part of the current environment, corporate profitability, employment, personal income, industrial production, manufacturing and trade activity all provide reasons to maintain perspective. There are legitimate concerns to monitor, but there are also meaningful signs of underlying strength. Looking beyond the headlines and considering both sides of the market landscape can provide a more complete picture of the current environment.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Charts of Optimism first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Financial markets around the world are more connected to the U.S. economy than you may realize. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores how foreign capital flows, currency fluctuations, global market stress and international investing can influence everything from U.S. interest rates and inflation to market volatility and portfolio diversification. As global markets become increasingly interconnected, understanding these relationships can provide important context for investors. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post How Impactful are Foreign Financial Markets on the U.S. Economy? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Understanding the Supply Shock The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates in line with market expectations. Because interest rates had already moved higher ahead of the decision, the increase itself was largely anticipated and had already been reflected in financial markets. The move also followed rate increases from other major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. The more important question is what comes next. Historically, raising interest rates can be an effective tool for addressing inflation caused by strong demand. Higher borrowing costs make it more expensive to finance purchases, which can encourage consumers and businesses to delay spending. In turn, that reduces current demand and can help bring supply and demand back into balance. This creates a challenge when inflation is being driven by a supply shock. The current pressure in oil markets is an example. The issue is not necessarily that consumers suddenly want more gasoline. Rather, there is a constraint on the amount of oil available. Consumers still need to purchase gasoline even when prices rise, meaning higher interest rates do little to address the underlying supply shortage. That creates a difficult combination. Interest rate increases raise the cost of borrowing at the same time that the cost of essential goods and energy is increasing. If the current rate increase remains a one-time move, its impact may be relatively limited. A prolonged rate-hiking cycle, however, could create additional pressure without directly addressing the supply-side factors driving prices higher. Another development to watch is the relationship between the United States and China, particularly as the two countries navigate the global energy market. China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers and also produces significant amounts of refined petroleum products for export. Discussions between the two countries could have implications for global energy supply, tariffs and other geopolitical issues. The combination of energy prices, monetary policy and geopolitical developments makes the coming months an important period for investors to monitor. The Impact of Energy on Inflation Energy prices are one of the most visible ways consumers experience inflation. With gasoline prices around $4 per gallon in the Birmingham area and higher prices being seen across much of the country, energy costs are increasingly noticeable in household budgets. Consumers are particularly sensitive to gasoline prices because there is not always an immediate substitute. Higher prices can therefore have a direct impact on day-to-day spending and become an increasingly prominent part of the broader inflation discussion. One important measure to understand is Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE. PCE measures the prices paid by U.S. consumers for goods and services and is one of the inflation measures closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Energy spending currently represents roughly 4% of total U.S. PCE. That percentage is significantly lower than it was during some previous periods, including the 1980s and early 2000s, when energy represented a much larger share of consumer expenditures. That distinction is important when considering the global impact of higher oil prices. While U.S. consumers certainly feel higher energy costs, the effect can be substantially greater in emerging economies where households devote a larger portion of their disposable income to energy. The total amount the United States spends on oil also provides useful perspective. U.S. oil consumption has generally remained around 20 million barrels per day in recent years, outside of the unusual conditions of 2020. At an average price per barrel, that translates into hundreds of billions of dollars in annual oil expenditures. When oil prices rise, the total amount spent on energy increases significantly even if consumption remains relatively steady. At approximately $80 per barrel, for example, annual expenditures are substantially higher than at lower price levels. At $100 per barrel, the increase becomes even more pronounced. That additional spending has broader economic implications because more consumer and business dollars are directed toward energy rather than other goods and services. As the year progresses, the path of oil prices will therefore remain an important factor in the inflation outlook. If energy prices remain elevated, consumers are likely to continue feeling that pressure, particularly as the economy moves toward the midterm election year.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Shocks and Demand first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Financial independence comes with plenty of new financial decisions, and a few common missteps can make managing money more challenging than it needs to be. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Robert Moody breaks down five money mistakes young adults often encounter, from skipping a budget to misusing credit and putting off saving. He also shares practical habits that can help build a stronger financial foundation over time. Watch to learn more. Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Robert Moody here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Five Money Mistakes Young People Should Avoid first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

How Higher Rates Are Affecting Bonds The Federal Reserve has taken a measured approach to communicating its policy intentions, allowing the market to lead rather than trying to guide it with specific forecasts. That dynamic appears to be playing out as the market has already priced in much of the expected rate increase. Over the past month, the two-year Treasury yield has increased 46 basis points, the one-year yield has risen 34 basis points, and the three-month Treasury yield, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate controlled by the Fed, has increased 24 basis points. This represents a relatively healthy relationship between the Federal Reserve and the markets, with market expectations pulling the Fed forward rather than the Fed pushing markets in a particular direction. Traditionally, the Fed raises interest rates to slow economic growth and reduce inflation. The challenge this time is that inflation is being driven largely by higher oil prices rather than excessive economic growth. As a result, higher interest rates could slow economic activity while elevated oil prices are putting additional pressure on consumers. For consumers, that could create a double impact. Higher oil prices can reduce disposable income, while higher interest rates increase borrowing costs. For investors, however, higher rates can provide a benefit. Interest rates represent what borrowers pay, but that interest is income for investors. With roughly $7 trillion in money market assets in the U.S., a 25-basis-point increase would provide a meaningful boost to interest earned by savers. Ultimately, higher rates are likely to be a net positive for savers and a net negative for borrowers. How those effects ultimately flow through to the stock market will be important to watch. What History Tells Us About Stocks History can provide some perspective on how stocks have responded to previous Federal Reserve tightening cycles. Looking at the S&P 500 following the initial rate hikes across the six tightening cycles since 1994, stocks have generally struggled during the first several months following the initial increase. On average, returns were negative through the first four months before improving significantly five to six months after the initial hike. However, there have been notable exceptions. Following the initial rate hike in March 2022, the S&P 500 fell over the subsequent two months and remained down for more than 12 months. That period presented a uniquely difficult backdrop, with long-term interest rates rising from historically low levels as inflation surged to multi-decade highs following the pandemic. The Federal Reserve was forced to tighten aggressively after initially viewing inflation as transitory. Its history of continuing to raise rates until something breaks also contributed to fears that a recession was approaching. The stock market ultimately experienced a roughly 25% drawdown, consistent with the kind of decline investors might expect during a recession, although the U.S. economy did not technically enter one in 2022. The environment today is notably different. Another important exception occurred in 1997. Stocks significantly outperformed the other tightening cycles, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 8% two months after the initial hike and approximately 42% one year later. The dot-com boom and optimism surrounding the internet helped propel stocks higher despite rising interest rates. That period offers an interesting comparison to today’s environment, where enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence plays a similar role. Revolutionary technology can, at least for a time, outweigh the effects of higher interest rates. Another rate hike in 1999 was followed by another strong 12-month gain in the S&P 500, illustrating how long the technology bubble continued to inflate before eventually bursting in 2000. The key lesson from these historical cycles is that rate hikes do not necessarily derail bull markets. The picture changes when rising rates coincide with increasing recession risk. Today, recession risks remain relatively low. Economic growth is solid, the labor market remains healthy, and while inflation is still elevated, it is well below the levels seen in 2022. At the same time, interest rates have already moved substantially higher, which may reduce the shock to bond portfolios from additional modest increases in market-based rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield. While history does not provide a perfect blueprint for what comes next, today’s combination of economic resilience and moderating inflation looks more like the late 1990s than the challenges of 2022. That does not mean investors should expect another 40% rally. It does suggest that the current economic backdrop remains supportive for equities, even if markets experience volatility in the weeks and months ahead as investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s path.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post How Will Stocks React? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Saving even a modest amount each month can add up over time, with the potential impact shaped by consistency, time, and investment returns. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Bobby Norman explores how starting early and allowing compounded growth to work over the long term can influence the value of regular savings. Watch to learn more. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post The Importance of Saving Early first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

AI is no longer just transforming manufacturing and technology. From banking and healthcare to customer service and accounting, AI is reshaping the “back office” jobs that have long provided a path to the middle class, creating both challenges and new opportunities along the way. In this week’s Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores which roles are changing most quickly and what this evolution could mean for workers, businesses, and the broader economy. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Is AI Replacing America’s Back Office? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

The Fed’s Next Move Two developments that have been building over the past several months came together over the weekend to put upward pressure on interest rates. The first was Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Warsh emphasized his commitment to discipline rather than making a specific policy decision. While the statement itself was not entirely unexpected, the message reinforced his reputation as someone who places a strong emphasis on controlling inflation. That stance generally points toward a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment. The second development was increased friction surrounding the conflict with Iran. As tensions have escalated, oil prices have moved higher, adding pressure through higher energy costs. Together, the Fed’s more hawkish tone and rising energy prices have contributed to a meaningful increase in interest rates. The market is now looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Just one week ago, the prevailing expectation was that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged. Over the past seven days, however, the probability of a September rate hike has risen from 41% to 66%, representing a significant shift in market expectations. While there is still uncertainty about whether the Fed will ultimately raise rates in September, the meeting is clearly shaping up to be a “live” meeting, meaning the outcome is far less certain than it has been in recent meetings. With relatively little economic data expected between now and the meeting, investors have limited information available to provide clarity. As a result, markets are responding to that uncertainty by pushing short-term interest rates higher. Interest rates remain an important factor to watch because they influence much more than the bond market. Changes in rates can affect mortgages, credit conditions and borrowing costs, ultimately influencing the financial decisions and bottom lines of individuals and businesses. September Seasonality The Federal Reserve is only one piece of the market puzzle. Historical seasonality is another trend worth watching as September approaches. Seasonality is one of the many market trends analyzed when developing portfolio strategies, and September has historically been one of the more subdued months for market performance. However, the market’s current positive trend provides an important piece of context. Historically, September has performed better when the market enters the month in a positive trend. Conversely, September can be more challenging when the market begins the month, already in a negative trend. That makes the market’s current momentum particularly important as investors head into the fall. There is another historical consideration this year. September has typically been a weaker month during midterm election years. The question now is whether the market’s positive trend and strong momentum coming out of earnings season can help offset some of that historical weakness. The market is entering September following an impressive earnings season, giving investors a constructive backdrop despite the potential headwinds from interest rates, geopolitical developments and historical seasonality. As September unfolds, several factors will be closely monitored: the Federal Reserve’s next decision, developments in the Middle East, the direction of interest rates and the market’s seasonal tendencies. History can provide useful context, but market conditions can change. The key will be watching whether the market follows its historical September pattern or maintains the strength it has demonstrated coming out of earnings season.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Changing Seasons first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Aging skilled trades workers could become an unexpected economic bottleneck, with five workers leaving the trades for every one worker entering. In this week’s Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores the growing workforce gap, its potential impact on construction and manufacturing, and why the demand for skilled trades is rising at the same time. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post The Aging of America’s Trades first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Strong Earnings, Tougher Comparisons More than 90% of companies have now reported second quarter earnings, giving us a clear picture of a remarkably strong earnings season. Earnings growth for the quarter has exceeded 50%, an exceptional level of growth by historical standards. Some of that growth has been influenced by unusual valuation changes tied to large companies’ investments in private businesses. Even after accounting for those factors, however, earnings growth remains above 30%, which is still a spectacular result. Strong corporate earnings have been an important reason the stock market has remained resilient despite the challenges and uncertainty surrounding a midterm election year. As we look toward the remainder of 2026, earnings will continue to be an important factor in determining whether that momentum can continue. The outlook becomes more complicated as we move into 2027. Companies will soon begin comparing results against an exceptionally strong earnings year, creating more difficult year-over-year comparisons. Expectations for 2027 earnings growth have already declined from approximately 17% to around 13%. Some of the strength anticipated for next year may have been pulled forward into 2026, which could make those comparisons even more important. Higher Treasury rates are another factor to monitor. While the current earnings environment remains encouraging, exceptionally strong results today can create a higher hurdle for companies to clear tomorrow. CEO Confidence Remains Resilient Corporate earnings are only one piece of the economic picture. CEO confidence is another important indicator because it provides insight into how business leaders view the economy and their companies’ prospects over the next 12 months. The latest CEO confidence readings turned slightly higher in August. More importantly, the outlook among surveyed CEOs remains positive across several key areas. CEOs expect profits, capital expenditures, hiring and revenues to increase over the next year. If those expectations are realized, that would create a constructive environment for continued market strength. That does not mean the outlook is without risks. Higher interest rates and political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election could influence business decisions and corporate confidence. These indicators can change quickly, so continued monitoring is important. For now, however, CEOs generally appear to like what they are seeing. The Bond Market Deserves Respect While stocks and corporate earnings tend to receive most of the attention, the bond market is an equally important part of the market landscape. Recent developments involving the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have put renewed attention on Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve’s decision to step back from directly intervening in the bond market has raised questions about how interest rates will be determined when market participants have greater influence. Historically, the term “bond vigilantes” has been used to describe bond-market investors who exert pressure on policymakers through movements in interest rates. When rates rise significantly, those movements can serve as a signal that investors are concerned about government spending, deficits or other economic conditions. Recent Treasury activity adds another layer to that discussion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Treasury could increase its purchases of longer-term bonds by as much as $20 billion. This is different from Federal Reserve intervention because the Treasury is not creating new money in the same way the Fed does when it purchases bonds. Instead, the Treasury can issue shorter-term debt, such as three-month Treasury bills and other securities with maturities of less than one year, while purchasing longer-term debt. This approach can help place downward pressure on longer-term interest rates while allowing the Treasury to manage its funding needs through short-term issuance. The Treasury also has approximately $1 trillion in its Treasury General Account, providing significant resources that could potentially be used in managing these transactions. The larger question is what happens to the market’s ability to signal concerns about government deficits when policymakers intervene to limit increases in long-term interest rates. Rising rates can provide an important signal to Congress and the administration when investors believe fiscal conditions are becoming unsustainable. These developments are particularly notable as Congress remains on recess and attention begins shifting toward the 2026 midterm elections. Once Congress returns in September, markets are likely to place greater emphasis on the political and fiscal landscape. Trade policy has also returned to the headlines. Canada recently called off trade negotiations with the United States, resulting in a headline tariff rate of 50% on certain Canadian goods. The headline number is significant, but the underlying data provides important context. The United States imports roughly $450 billion in Canadian goods, yet only about $20 billion of those imports, or approximately 4.4%, would actually be subject to the tariffs in question. That distinction illustrates why it is important to look beyond headlines and examine the underlying data. The headline may attract attention, but the actual economic impact can be considerably smaller.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Earning Respect first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Long-term care can become one of the most significant and unexpected expenses in retirement, with nursing home costs in Alabama potentially exceeding $100,000 per year. In this week’s Educational Insights, Robert Moody explores the true cost of care, the options available, and how planning ahead can help protect your retirement savings and give you greater control over your future care. Watch to learn more. Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Robert Moody here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post The Cost of Long-Term Care first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Strong Market Breadth The market typically begins to experience greater volatility around this point in midterm election years. However, one encouraging development is the strength and breadth of current market momentum. The S&P 500 continues to show broad participation, with the highest percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day technical moving average since 2024. Currently, approximately 74% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Broad participation like this is generally a positive sign for the overall health of the market. The internal momentum of the S&P 500 is also strengthening. Nine of the 11 sectors are showing better momentum than they were on June 22, with only energy and utilities showing weaker momentum. Taken together, these indicators point to a market with strong underlying momentum. While volatility can increase as the midterm elections approach, the current breadth of participation provides an encouraging foundation. For now, momentum is our friend. Inflation Continues to Evolve The latest Consumer Price Index, or CPI, provided some encouraging news on the inflation front. July CPI increased 0.1%, in line with expectations, bringing the year-over-year increase to approximately 3.5%. The fact that inflation did not come in higher than expected is important. While inflation remains elevated, the latest reading does not suggest that prices are accelerating rapidly. For investors and consumers, however, the headline CPI number is only part of the story. Two important questions are what the Federal Reserve makes of the data and how inflation is affecting people in their everyday lives. The outlook for Federal Reserve policy has shifted as inflation data has evolved. At one point, markets were pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting. Those odds rose to approximately 52% about a week ago but have since fallen to around 30%. Current expectations suggest that there may be one rate hike toward the end of the year, although there is still significant time for the outlook to change. Another useful measure is the “Common Man’s CPI,” a proprietary index from Strategas that focuses on essential expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children’s clothing. These are expenses consumers generally cannot avoid or easily postpone. The Common Man’s CPI increased 3.5% year-over-year in July, down from 3.7% in June and 4.6% in May. That deceleration is encouraging, but the longer-term impact of inflation remains significant. Since the middle of 2020, the Common Man’s CPI has increased approximately 32%, while wages have risen about 28%. That gap helps explain why many consumers continue to feel the effects of inflation even as the rate of price increases slows. Prices may be rising more slowly, but wages have not yet fully caught up with the cumulative increase in the cost of essential goods and services. The trajectory of both inflation and wages will remain important as the year progresses. The Fed’s Other Inflation Tool The Federal Reserve has several tools available to influence the economy, but two of the most important are interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet. Interest rates influence economic activity by making borrowing more or less expensive. The balance sheet works differently. When the Fed adds money to the financial system, it can support economic growth. When it reduces the amount of money in the system, it can help restrain growth and inflation. This second tool receives considerably less attention because its effects are less visible to consumers. Interest rates are relatively easy to understand because they directly affect mortgages, savings accounts, credit cards, and other forms of borrowing. The balance sheet is much less tangible. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve was expanding its balance sheet through a process referred to as monthly net reserve management. The terminology is intentional because quantitative easing, or QE, has developed a negative association following the significant monetary stimulus implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through net reserve management, the Fed injects capital into the banking system by purchasing Treasury securities from banks and replacing those securities with cash. Maintaining sufficient liquidity in the banking system is important, particularly during periods when large amounts of money are flowing out of the system for purposes such as tax payments. Beginning in December, the Fed was injecting approximately $40 billion per month into the banking system. That pace subsequently began to taper as leadership at the Federal Reserve changed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has written extensively about the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the importance of eventually reducing it. One concern with simultaneously raising interest rates while expanding the balance sheet is that the two policies can work against one another. Higher rates are intended to slow economic activity, while an expanding balance sheet can add liquidity to the financial system. Under the current approach, the Federal Reserve has moved toward stopping the expansion of its balance sheet before relying more heavily on interest-rate increases. August marks the first month since the beginning of the year in which the balance sheet is not expected to expand. The implications could be important for consumers and the broader economy. Consider a simple example. If a consumer earns $100 per week and spends $50 on gasoline and $50 on groceries, an increase in gasoline prices to $60 would leave only $40 available for groceries. Unless the consumer has additional money to spend, higher costs in one area can lead to reduced spending elsewhere. Economists refer to this as demand destruction. For broad-based inflation to persist across the economy, there generally needs to be enough money available to sustain demand even as prices rise. If the money supply increases, a consumer who previously had $100 to spend might instead have $110, allowing spending to continue despite higher prices. That dynamic has been evident in recent economic data. As gasoline prices increased, spending in areas such as leisure and hospitality and retail sales remained surprisingly resilient. Ordinarily, higher gasoline costs might be expected to reduce spending elsewhere, but that demand destruction has been limited. One possible explanation is the additional liquidity that has been present in the financial system. August provides an important test. For the first time this year, the economy is facing higher energy prices without the same additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. That creates an opportunity to observe whether demand begins to weaken in other areas of the economy. How that dynamic develops could have meaningful implications for economic growth, inflation, and ultimately the stock market.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Momentum is our Friend first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

One of the most overlooked threats to retirement wealth may happen long before retirement: a mid-career stall. In this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores how spending five or more years without a meaningful promotion or raise can reduce overall retirement wealth by 15–25%, and shares four strategies to keep your career and financial future moving forward. Understanding how your career trajectory can impact long-term wealth may help you take action before a stall becomes a setback. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this recording are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. The post Avoiding Mid-Career Stall first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.