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On this week’s episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff is back with Justin Holmes to look past horse-race headlines and dissect the deeper political science, constitutional, and regulatory developments shaping the national landscape. The guys begin by examining the astroturfed confrontation in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and “Tommy,” or Thomas Teepell, a former operative for Senator Josh Hawley. The hosts discuss why "constants don't explain variables" in electoral behavior, noting that while viral moments generate online engagement, they rarely shift voter preferences late in a cycle. The hosts explore the economics of modern astroturfing, campaign spending rationality, and the weaponization of anti-Muslim tropes in midterm messaging. Next, the pair turns to a controversial television commercial in the Ohio governor’s race produced by Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy against Dr. Amy Acton featuring her estranged birth mother, Donna Arther. Trey discussed the academic literature on negative advertising, discussing whether scorched-earth ads suppress turnout and how it might help the Ramaswamy campaign, while Justin addresses the role of perceived fairness in voter persuasion and institutional risks of normalizing perusal trauma in campaign discourse. After that, the hosts turn to an executive branch search warrant targeting a sitting member of Congress, Ilhan Omar (D-MN). Federal agents executed a search warrant of the personal home snd property of Rep. Omar, including her phones, laptops, notebooks, and her passport. Trey and Justin examine the 2006 FBI raid on Representative William Jefferson’s congressional office (United States v. Rayburn House Office Building), which established strict limits on executive searches of legislative communications. The hosts analyze the constitutional danger of sweeping electronic seizures against sitting lawmakers and the evidentiary hurdles of prosecuting three-decade-old paperwork signed by a deceased parent. They close looking at the $25 billion civil judgment against Meta. Justin and Trey discuss the practical realities of parenting in a digital era, the technical barriers to reliable age verification without creating secondary privacy risks, and whether mega-judgments lead to genuine algorithmic reforms or get treated as a cost of doing business. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

In this supporters' exclusive midweek episode, Mike and Justin discuss Kimberly Guilfoyle's resignation as ambassador to Greece, the Trump administration's antitrust investigation into major news networks, and the extraordinarily short tenure of White House press secretary Katie Zacharia. They begin with allegations that Guilfoyle solicited money and personal favors from wealthy Trump supporters, raising broader questions about political patronage, diplomatic appointments, and corruption. Next, they examine whether the Justice Department has a legitimate antitrust case against television networks that suspended White House press pool coverage—or whether the investigation represents another effort to punish critical media outlets. The discussion turns to Zacharia's departure after just five days, Trump's approach to staffing, and whether the traditional White House press secretary still serves a useful purpose in the social media era. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

With the 2026 midterms approaching, Mike and Justin examine the increasingly difficult electoral landscape for Republicans, including Democrats' chances of capturing both chambers of Congress. They discuss record-breaking campaign spending, Elon Musk's extraordinary contributions, and why Trump is sitting on hundreds of millions in campaign funds while concentrating his rallies in Republican strongholds. Next, the guys turn to the Justice Department's search of Rep. Ilhan Omar's home, examining allegations involving her citizenship and finances, previous investigations that produced no charges, and whether the timing suggests political intimidation rather than legitimate law enforcement. Finally, they consider Trump's decision to ease sanctions on Russian diesel, whether the deal could meaningfully reduce American fuel prices, and reports of restrictions on Ukraine's satellite communications. They also explore growing Republican resistance to Trump's Russia policy and the broader institutional implications of a presidency increasingly willing to test the limits of executive authority, with Congress seemingly unable or unwilling to impose meaningful restraints. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

In this special full-length release of our normally supporters-only midweek episode, Mike and Michael Levy tackle a provocative question: Why are Donald Trump's approval ratings still so high? With approval in the 30s, Trump's popularity looks dismal by conventional standards. But given his controversies, policy failures, and challenges to democratic institutions, should his numbers be even lower? Mike challenges Michael's argument (from his Substack - link below) as they explore Trump's unusually resilient political support, the role of partisan identity and affective polarization, and whether Trumpism can survive without Trump himself. They also examine whether Democrats are susceptible to the same tribal loyalties, why some voters actively welcome Trump's aggressive use of presidential power, and what the erosion of respect for the rule of law means for American democracy. Finally, they consider why fact-checking and policy proposals so often fail to change minds—and what Democrats might do differently. Michael's Substack Piece on Trump's Approval The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

With the 2026 midterms less than four weeks away, Republicans still hold a major financial advantage—but increasingly have to decide which House and Senate races are worth saving. Mike and his fellow political scientist Michael Levy look at GOP spending pullbacks, Democratic opportunities, whether polls may still underestimate Republican support, and what it could all mean for control of the Senate. Next, Tennessee’s second botched execution this year raises a larger question: is the problem lethal injection, or the death penalty itself? The guys discuss wrongful convictions, the economics and deterrent value of capital punishment, whether executions should be public, and the moral distance between supporting an execution and actually carrying one out. Then they turn to the Trump administration’s use of taxpayer money for ads promoting the president and his policies. Mike argues the spending was almost certainly illegal regardless of whether the ads qualify as propaganda, while the two consider why Trump picked this fight—and whether Democratic outrage plays directly into his political strategy. Finally, Pennsylvania’s massive measles outbreak leads to a broader discussion of falling childhood vaccination rates, growing vaccine skepticism, RFK Jr., Trump’s false claims about the MMR vaccine, and Ken Paxton’s investigation of the American Academy of Pediatrics. Michael’s Substack The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Former Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan joins Mike to discuss why Congress has become less capable of governing—and whether it can still handle complex issues like cryptocurrency regulation. They talk about congressional dysfunction, concentrated leadership power, the decline of congressional expertise, earmarks, and the incentives that discourage lawmakers from taking political risks. Then they turn to the CLARITY Act and the future of crypto regulation. Ryan makes the case for Congress setting clear rules for digital assets, while Mike presses him on an understaffed CFTC, Trump’s crypto interests, Democratic opposition in the Senate, industry campaign spending, community banks, and whether a lame-duck session may be the best chance to get legislation passed. Tim Ryan on X The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this midweek supporters-exclusive episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (Oklahoma Christian University) and Justin Holmes (University of Northern Iowa) launch a brand-new miniseries examining key structural, legal, and constitutional turning points in contemporary American politics. In Part 1 of a three-part retrospective on the 2000 Presidential Election, Trey and Justin bypass the immediate impulse to jump straight to the Florida recounts and Bush v. Gore. Instead, they analyze the campaign fundamentals, economic voting models, strategic messaging blunders, third-party dynamics, and election night anomalies that turned a booming 1990s economy into a dead-heat coin toss between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this week’s episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (Oklahoma Christian University) is joined by Justin Holmes (University of Northern Iowa). The hosts open with a discussion on an impoundment or recession request to House Speaker Mike Johnson proposing budget cuts just days before the fiscal year ends. Trey and Justin explain how such recessions have happened before and how they clash with Article I spending power, before agreeing that despite the Government Accountability Office’s standing to sue, this creates a new precedent for power for all presidents.  Next, the pair examine the viral oversight blunder during Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Senate Judiciary Committee testimony where Senator Eric Schmitt (R-MO) accused Smith of perjury for allegedly attending an Atlanta Hawks NBA game to coordinate prosecutions with Fani Willis. The guys walk through the viral fallout, including Senator Katie Britt’s reaction, but even more importantly how modern media incentives encourage politicians to double down on false accusations and distract from the larger substantive issues that could be investigated.  After that, Trey and Justin look at the fresh economic indicators, including Federal Reserve interest rates and below-average September job growth, as being headwinds to Republicans in the midterm. This includes a conversation on the deeply flawed campaigns of Democrats. The pair closes the show by looking at a federal district judge blocking the White House from withholding counterterrorism and FEMA security grants from municipalities (including Nashville and Harris County) that refused to adopt new federal election rules requiring citizenship verification for voters and poll workers. This leads to an extended conversation on President Trump’s use of the judicial system. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Mike talks with Lindsay Owens, president and CEO of the Groundwork Collaborative and author of Gouged: The End of a Fair Price and What That Means for Your Wallet, about how new technologies are changing what companies know about consumers—and how much they can charge them. They discuss an Instacart experiment that found shoppers being shown different prices for identical groceries, the RealPage controversy over algorithmic rent-setting, and the growing use of dynamic and surveillance pricing. Lindsay explains why the shift from posted prices toward individualized “willingness to pay” pricing could fundamentally change how markets work. Mike and Lindsay also dig into junk fees and all-in pricing, right-to-repair restrictions, deliberately difficult subscription cancellations, and “algorithmic wages” that may allow companies to pay workers different amounts for essentially identical work. They close with Lindsay’s proposed “shopper’s bill of rights,” the political prospects for stronger consumer protections, and why consumer backlash may be one of the most effective checks on increasingly sophisticated pricing technology. Lindsay Owens on X The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Mike and Jay open this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode with California’s settlement of its antitrust lawsuit challenging Paramount Skydance’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. They debate whether California extracted meaningful concessions or folded under pressure, how the relevant media market should be defined, and whether concerns about David Ellison’s growing influence over CBS and CNN really belong in an antitrust case at all. Next, they turn to the Protect College Sports Act and Congress’s attempt to bring order to the chaotic post-NIL world of college athletics. Mike and Jay discuss federal rules for NIL deals, transfers and eligibility, limited antitrust protection for the NCAA, athlete compensation, and whether big-time college football and basketball should finally acknowledge that their players function more like employees than traditional student-athletes. Then it’s cryptocurrency and the stalled CLARITY Act. Why did Senate Democrats block debate on legislation that had strong bipartisan support in the House—and that several Democratic senators helped negotiate? Mike and Jay examine the fight over whether crypto should be regulated primarily as securities or commodities, concerns about the Trump family’s crypto interests, stablecoin interest payments, and the electoral politics complicating any deal before the midterms. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

With just over a month until the midterms, Mike and Jay look at the increasingly difficult electoral environment for Republicans. They discuss Democrats’ generic-ballot advantage, unexpectedly competitive Senate and gubernatorial races, the GOP’s major fundraising edge, Trump’s effect on Republican candidates, and why campaign spending may reveal more than the polls. Next, they turn to Xi Jinping’s state visit and the striking contrast between the elaborate White House pageantry and the summit’s limited substantive results. The guys discuss the temporary tariff truce, Taiwan, Trump’s treatment of a $14 billion arms package as a negotiating chip, China’s purchases of Russian and Iranian oil, and the limits of personal diplomacy between great powers.   Then it’s Trump’s attempt to ban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House. Mike and Jay examine the court ruling temporarily restoring reporters’ press passes, the due-process and First Amendment questions, the administration’s national-security justification, and how much power presidents have to decide who gets access to the White House. Finally, diesel prices have hit record highs, prompting calls for a temporary ban on U.S. diesel exports. Mike and Jay consider whether Trump has the legal authority to impose a ban, whether it would actually lower prices, the logistical problems it could create, and what Trump’s growing willingness to intervene in markets—including government equity stakes in private companies—says about his economic policy. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Mike talks with Joan C. Williams and Jared Abbott, authors of The Left’s Coalition Crisis, about why Democrats have struggled with working-class voters and what they can do about it. Williams and Abbott argue that the familiar progressive-versus-moderate debate misses the point: successful candidates need “class competence”—an understanding of working-class values around hard work, security, family, and respect. They discuss striking survey findings on affordability, immigration, crime, abortion, childcare, expertise, and defending democracy; why anti-corruption may resonate more than warnings about authoritarianism; how progressive policies can gain support when framed around everyday concerns; and whether Democratic donors and activists are capable of building the cross-class coalition the party needs. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this midweek supporters-exclusive episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (Oklahoma Christian University) and Justin Holmes (University of Northern Iowa) bring their year-long subseries on Contemporary Political Ideologies to a close.Shifting away from political philosophy and the formal content of political doctrines, Trey and Justin dive into the empirical, behavioral, and psychological research surrounding how average citizens actually hold, process, and express political beliefs. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this week’s episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (Oklahoma Christian University) is joined by political scientist Justin Holmes (University of Northern Iowa), filling in while Ken Katkin takes a short hiatus. The hosts break down a bizarre Senate Judiciary oversight hearing with FBI Director Kash Patel, an explosive congressional report on executive pardon brokers, a House vote to end U.S. military operations in Iran alongside a parliamentary standoff that sent Congress home early, and the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in three years. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Mike talks with Blake Ashby, co-founder of the Institute for Urban Capitalism and author of Socialism and the Democratic Party: The Case for a Return to Moderated Capitalism. They discuss why younger and older Americans hear very different things when they hear “socialism,” what Marx got right about capitalism—and where socialism goes wrong—and why Ashby argues that neither laissez-faire capitalism nor state control offers a workable answer. They also examine worker cooperatives, public utilities, deregulation and inequality, the role of government in making markets possible, capital flight, taxation, and Ashby’s case for “bubble-up economics.” The conversation closes with a political question for Democrats: if many policies associated with socialism are popular, does the label matter—or should the party stop worrying about the word and focus on the substance? Blake Ashby on X The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.