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To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammon https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #lynalden

The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2008/vol93no4_quinn_roberds.pdf FRB Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bms/1914-1941/BMS14-41_complete.pdf FOMC Transcript July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdf FOMC Transcript October 1979https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791006meeting.pdf FOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help themselves whenever Phillips drops by.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Minutes January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240131.pdf https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.html Bloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployed CNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing ithttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.html Challenger, Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/ Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2 Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdf Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/ https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands before any of its other major problems. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China’s Bold Mortgage Rate Cut Met With Lukewarm Reactionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/chinese-banks-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-by-most-on-record CNBC China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since Junehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/china-cuts-benchmark-5-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-june.html Monetary policy shocks and the signaling channel of monetary policy in Chinahttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000047?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=85898a601dfcdb01 Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-world https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar As more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Skynews 8,000 migrants travel to southern border as election loomshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgRbVGO2XU Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning pointhttps://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2022-economic-forecast-eu-economy-turning-point_en EC Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging yearhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5743 Winter 2024 Economic Forecast: A delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflationhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_730 Fitch Ratingshttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-to-fall-sharply-in-2024-us-recession-avoided-08-12-2023 Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Oct 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20231020.pdf World Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university

There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university It's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university There are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university This is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Investing.com Japan’s Nikkei 225 near record high as Q4 recession dents BOJ pivot betshttps://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/japans-nikkei-225-near-record-high-as-q4-recession-dents-boj-pivot-bets-3304175 Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university Stocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Magnificent 7 Concentrationhttps://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644 CNN Germany’s stock market just hit a new record high despite a faltering economy. What gives?https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/investing/german-stock-market-dax-record-high/index.html Investopedia DAXhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dax.asp BloombergNEF Copper Prices May Jump 20% by 2027 as Supply Deficit Riseshttps://about.bnef.com/blog/copper-prices-may-jump-20-by-2027-as-supply-deficit-rises/ ING Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappointshttps://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-surplus-to-persist-as-demand-disappoints/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university No one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 version was in every other way just like back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNNMoney Consumer prices up 2.1% in past yearhttps://money.cnn.com/2011/03/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htm Boston Fed Eric Rosengren A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/a-look-inside-a-key-economic-debate-how-should-monetary-policy-respond-to-price-increases-driven-by-supply-shocks.aspx FOMC Transcript September 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110921meeting.pdf December 2011 Tealbookhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20111213tealbooka20111207.pdf Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.university China's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRBNY Monthly Review November 1960https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbnyreview/rev_frbny_196011.pdf?utm_source=direct_download BIS Quarterly Review June 2012https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1206f.pdf Bloomberg A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/a-99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-funds-a-harsh-lesson-on-china Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU