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Housing data came in well below expectations this week. Housing starts fell 5.2% when markets expected an increase, and pending home sales dropped 7.3% to a record low. Megan Horneman, CIO of Verdence Capital Advisors, breaks down the numbers and what is driving the slowdown in the housing market. Mortgage rates ended September at 7.3%, the highest in three years, and home builders are dealing with rising material costs and uncertainty from tariffs and supply disruptions. Housing is a small slice of GDP, but a slowdown can ripple into spending on things like furniture and electronics. Stocks rallied anyway, helped by lower oil prices and falling interest rates. In this episode, Megan covers: • Why housing starts fell 5.2% for a third straight monthly decline near 5% • How multifamily construction led the weakness while single-family starts also slipped • Pending home sales falling 7.3% to a record low, led by the West and South • Builder confidence hitting a record low as buyer traffic dries up • How 7.3% mortgage rates and rising material costs are weighing on builders • Why the Dow rallied on weak data and what it may mean for the Fed in October and December If you're keeping an eye on your retirement accounts and wondering how a cooling housing market fits into the bigger picture, this short episode lays it out clearly. Listen in and subscribe so you don't miss next week's update. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #HousingMarket #HousingStarts #PendingHomeSales #MortgageRates #RealEstateNews #StockMarket #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Investing https://youtu.be/DMmt5C32kMU Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation is heating up, consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, and the Federal Reserve faces another difficult decision. Could another interest rate hike be coming before the end of 2026? Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman discusses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales report, and what they could mean for the economy, stock market, and Federal Reserve policy. Find out: - Why producer prices surged 1.3% in September, the fastest monthly increase since April 2023 - How rising energy prices and trade-related costs are fueling inflation - Why headline retail sales may be masking weaker consumer spending - What softer spending could mean for third-quarter GDP - Why the Fed may hold rates in October but consider another hike in December - What's driving the divergence between the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq as Treasury yields decline With inflation pressures persisting and underlying consumer demand showing signs of slowing, the Fed's path forward is anything but straightforward. Subscribe to Markets with Megan for timely economic insights and market commentary from Megan Horneman. Visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #CPI #PPI #EconomicOutlook #MarketNews #Investing https://youtu.be/2CAh86tQ944 Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The September ISM Services Report showed the service sector, where Americans spend most of their money, ending the third quarter on a softer note. Megan Horneman explains why business activity and new orders slipped while the prices paid component jumped to its highest level since July 2022. Supply chain pressure tied to the war with Iran, along with tariffs and high fuel costs, is showing up in industries from construction to agriculture. Bond yields rose on the report, and the data likely won't change the Fed's October decision but does raise the odds of another hike in December. In this episode, Megan covers: Why the services composite slipped in September and still sits in expansion territoryWhere the weakness showed up: business activity, new orders, and a steep drop in export ordersPrices paid at the highest since July 2022 and order backlogs at their highest since 2022How diesel costs are driving up freight and pushing nitrogen prices near record highs for farmersWhy construction firms say half of buyers walking in can't qualify at current interest ratesWhat rising yields signal for the Fed's October meeting and the odds of a December hikeKeeping up with every data release takes time you may not have. Megan sorts out what matters in about five minutes, so listen in and subscribe to catch the next one. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #ISMServices #ServiceSector #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BondYields #SupplyChain #DieselPrices #EconomicData https://youtu.be/MxOE30jtf2g Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The September jobs report came in much weaker than expected, and it could change the Federal Reserve’s next move. The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the prior two months were revised lower by roughly 60,000 jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, labor force participation increased, and wage growth came in around 3% year over year. So what does all of this mean for interest rates? Megan Horneman shares the latest employment data, where jobs are being gained and lost, why Treasury yields are falling, and how the report could give the Fed more flexibility to hold rates steady in October and wait until December before making another move. Plus, find out why equity markets are responding positively to weaker labor-market data. Subscribe to Markets with Megan for quick, straightforward analysis of the economic data moving markets: www.marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #Economy #Investing #MarketUpdate https://youtu.be/NxVCfTmjACQ Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Fed is getting mixed signals. This week’s economic data showed a cooling labor market, stubborn inflation, and renewed price pressures in manufacturing, all while the odds of an October rate hike have fallen sharply. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest JOLTS report, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing data, and what they could mean for the Fed’s next move. Could the Fed hold off until December? And what should investors be watching in tomorrow’s September jobs report? Subscribe to Markets with Megan for quick, straightforward analysis of the economic data moving markets. www.marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #JobsReport #Economy #Investing #StockMarket #MarketUpdate https://youtu.be/dcOHaF7NhEM Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

AI-related capital spending continues to support the U.S. economy, and the latest durable goods report reveals surprising strength beneath the headline numbers. But could stronger economic growth give the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates? In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman reviews August's durable goods orders, the surge in business investment, and what the latest economic data could mean for third-quarter GDP, inflation and the Fed's October meeting. - Why aircraft orders weighed on the headline durable goods report. - How underlying orders rose more than 1% in August and 14.8% year over year. - The role of AI-related investment in machinery, computers, metals and electrical equipment. - Why the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is tracking third-quarter growth above 5%. - What strong economic data could mean for interest rates, inflation and financial markets. Can the AI investment boom continue supporting economic growth without reigniting inflation? Subscribe to Markets with Megan for timely insights into the economic data moving financial markets. Visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #AIInvesting #GDP #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #DurableGoods #CapitalSpending  https://youtu.be/mQRDi4jzr38 Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Retail sales just flipped the script: after a weak July, August comes in with a sharp rebound, and the details matter if you care about where the U.S. economy is headed. We walk through the August retail sales report and why a 1.2% monthly gain grabs market attention, especially with gasoline station sales up 3.1% and “core” spending measures also showing strength. If you’ve been wondering whether the consumer is finally cracking, this data argues the spending story is not over yet.  We dig into the category-level moves that help explain the jump, including motor vehicles, furniture, electronics, health and personal care, internet shopping, and eating and drinking places. We also talk about why e-commerce surged and how Amazon Prime Day being pulled forward can make one month look soft and the next month look strong. It’s a good reminder that promotions and timing can distort short-term readings, even when underlying consumer demand is steady.  Then we hit the key caveat: retail sales are reported in nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted terms. That makes it hard to separate true increases in spending from higher prices, especially in categories impacted by inflation and supply chain disruptions. We close with what we’re watching as the Fed meets, and why the press conference can change the market’s interpretation of today’s data. Subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, then tell us: does this report signal real strength or just inflation in disguise? https://youtu.be/vcOZXjWQhKM Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the latest CPI report may have strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike next week. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman dissects the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, hotter core CPI, and continued pressure on American households. She also explains why markets are rallying even as the odds of a Fed hike rise, and what investors should be watching heading into next week’s Fed meeting. Topics include: • The latest CPI and core inflation numbers • Why energy prices remain a major inflation driver • Rising costs for consumers and declining real wages • Why Fed rate hike odds have jumped • Why stocks are rising despite higher rate expectations • What to watch at next week’s Fed meeting Subscribe for timely market insights and economic analysis from Markets with Megan. Learn more at MarketsWithMegan.fm. #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #FedRateHike #InterestRates #StockMarket #MarketsWithMegan #MarketUpdate #Investing #Economy https://youtu.be/SG9-XZB2xv8 Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Inflation came in as expected. The problem? “As expected” is still too hot. The latest Producer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to build: 📈 Headline PPI: +5.4% year over year 📈 PPI excluding food, energy and trade: +4.7% ✈️ Airline prices: nearly +20% year over year ⚖️ Legal services: about +8% 🏥 Hospital inpatient care: +4.3% Those details matter because several feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, and they’re not giving policymakers much reason to feel comfortable. Markets are taking notice. The probability of a rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting has climbed to 72%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 4.9% and closer to the 5% level. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down what today’s PPI report tells us about inflation, interest rates, and what investors should be watching when CPI arrives tomorrow. 🎧 Watch the latest Markets with Megan and get a complete history of all episodes at MarketsWithMegan.fm. #MarketsWithMegan #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #PPI #Investing #Markets https://youtu.be/TWB0CvQUt1I Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The August jobs report landed well above expectations, and it's the last one the Fed will see before its September meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month against a forecast of just 55,000, with construction, AI-related hiring, and government payrolls all contributing. Megan Horneman breaks down what a beat this size means for interest rate policy. Wages grew three-tenths of a percent for the month, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the labor force added more than half a million workers. Markets are already reacting: equities slipped as traders priced in a 62% chance the Fed raises rates in September. In this episode, Megan covers: - Why 162,000 new jobs was nearly triple what economists expected - Where the job growth came from: construction, AI-related hiring, and government - What rising wages and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate signal - Why markets are now pricing in a 62% chance of a September rate hike - How short- and long-term Treasury yields are reacting differently to the report Subscribe for a new episode every week. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes: https://marketswithmegan.FM #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateHike #Economy #StockMarket #Investing #WageGrowth #Unemployment #MarketsWithMegan https://youtu.be/v-Am2JambtE Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The ISM Services Index ticked up in August, and the report's prices paid component jumped to its highest level since August 2022, back when the economy was still digging out of the post-pandemic inflation spike. Megan breaks down what's behind the rise in service sector activity and why the pricing data is worth watching heading into the Fed's next move. In this episode, Megan covers: 🔹 Why the ISM Services Index rose in August and what's driving the strength 🔹 The prices paid component's jump to its highest level since August 2022 🔹 Business activity and new orders climbing to their highest levels in over a year 🔹 How Fed speech on holding rates steady moved the equity markets today 🔹 Why tomorrow's jobs report is the last piece of data before the Fed's rate decision If you're trying to make sense of what these numbers mean for your own portfolio and retirement planning, take five minutes to listen in.  For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #ISMServices #ServiceSectorInflation #FederalReserve #JobsReport #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketsWithMegan #Economy #FedDecision #StockMarket https://youtu.be/Sk63JVHeZ0g Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and it has real implications for where interest rates go next. Hear what he said about inflation, the labor market, and why the Fed isn't backing off even after a few better-than-expected readings this summer. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh made clear that "better than expected" doesn't mean "good enough." With more than half of the PCE basket still growing above 3%, and financial conditions loose rather than restrictive, the case for a rate hike is back on the table. Here's what it means for markets heading into a historically volatile September. In this episode, Megan covers: - Why Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech came across as more hawkish than expected - The Fed's shift in focus from labor market stability to persistent price pressures - Why more than half the PCE inflation basket is still running above 3% - What "price stability is not self-executing" means for future Fed action - How markets reacted across the yield curve and in equities - Why September could bring more volatility as the market digests this speech If you're trying to make sense of what a hawkish Fed means for your money heading into the fall, this one's for you. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #Inflation #InterestRates #FedPolicy #Investing #Economy #RateHike #MarketNews https://youtu.be/ZxeO4jCOiEE Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The July PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rising 0.2% month over month against a forecast of just 0.1%. Core PCE now sits at 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior month but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Megan breaks down what the data actually shows beneath the headlines. This matters because the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week, and markets are watching closely for any hint of tone on where rates go next. With services inflation still running hot and consumers leaning harder on savings and credit cards, Megan explains why she does not think the Fed has room to sound dovish right now. In this episode, Megan covers: - Why July's PCE inflation report ran hotter than economists expected - Core PCE holding at 3.3% year over year, still far from the Fed's target - "Super core" services inflation stuck near 3.9% and what that signals for the Fed - The personal savings rate rising to 3%, still well below the pre-COVID average of 7 to 8% - Why consumers are digging into savings and using credit cards as prices stay elevated - What to watch as the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week If you're trying to make sense of what this inflation data means for your money and for the Fed's next move, this one is worth five minutes of your time. Subscribe now. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM #PCEInflation #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #CorePCE #InflationData #SavingsRate #FedRateDecision #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #Inflation2026 https://youtu.be/d_e28gvEQlo Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting, and Megan breaks down what they actually reveal about the committee's thinking heading into September. The minutes show risks to employment and growth skewed to the downside, while inflation risk is still seen as tilted to the upside, even with a general upbeat tone on the economy overall. A few committee members already favored raising rates rather than waiting, a reminder of what happened in 2022 when the Fed had to move aggressively to catch up on inflation. Megan also covers why markets are rallying today, and it has less to do with the Fed and more to do with a Treasury announcement on long-term bond buybacks. In this episode, Megan covers: - What the Fed's July meeting minutes reveal about inflation and growth risk - Why underlying inflation is still elevated even after stripping out tariff and energy effects - The case for the Fed trimming its meeting schedule from eight to six per year - Why some committee members wanted to raise rates sooner rather than later - What's actually driving today's rally in stocks and bonds - Why September remains a possible date for the Fed's next move If you're trying to make sense of what the Fed is really signaling before their next meeting, this one's for you. Give it a watch and subscribe so you don't miss next week's breakdown. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #FederalReserve #FedMinutes #Inflation #InterestRates #FOMC #StockMarket #BondMarket #EconomicData #MarketsWithMegan #FedSeptember https://youtu.be/tDBek0aW3zo Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline. In this episode: - Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected - What the control group reading tells us about GDP - Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categories pulled back - Consumer confidence's first drop in three months - Why one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.3% matters to the Fed - What upcoming labor market and PCE data could mean for a September rate decision Give it a watch, and subscribe for the weekly breakdown. For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm #RetailSales #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketsWithMegan #EconomicData #Fed2026 #ConsumerSpending #RateDecision https://youtu.be/P3zMj-JpZ8s Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks  or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance  that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any  discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...