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Scot Ross did political communications and research at the state and federal levels for 25 years. His last dozen years in politics, he ran One Wisconsin Now, an opposition research and communication outfit, and for the last 15 years, he’s been the liberal pundit for PBS Wisconsin. He has some thoughts on the upcoming election. We talked about Tom Tiffany not paying any income taxes for years, something Ross and One Wisconsin Now researched years ago during Tiffany’s time in the state legislature, that for some reason, isn’t getting all that much attention now. We also talked about the “Dodgers of politics” — the billionaire Uihleins and Diane Hendricks, who have been funding Tom Tiffany to an exorbitant degree. Ross also discussed campaign strategy and why now is the time for Democrats to go negative, as spending from outside groups is overwhelmingly favoring Tiffany and only a small percentage of Crowley’s ads are negative ones, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and whether Democrats are “leaving cheddar on the table.” “If the race is focused on the fact that Tom Tiffany and Donald Trump are together 100% of the time, Tom Tiffany loses 100% of the time.” said Ross. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these topics and timestamps below. * 00:00 Intro: Brewers lead the Dodgers, 22 days to the midterms * 00:45 Introducing Scot Ross (One Wisconsin Now, PBS Wisconsin) * 01:45 Baseball detour: Pirates futility and the Brewers * 02:49 The One Wisconsin Now banner plane at Miller Park * 03:38 Uihlein, Hendricks, and the “Dodgers of politics” * 04:04 Journal Sentinel: outside spending favors Tiffany * 05:09 Unprecedented spending concentration: 90% from three donors * 06:44 The 2015 coordination loophole Tiffany voted for * 08:21 Why outside groups pay more for ads, and the Uline-Tiffany relationship * 09:24 Billionaire ROI: tax cuts and Tiffany’s “no tax hikes” pledge * 11:48 Eliminating the state income tax * 12:55 Why states without income taxes can afford it, and why Wisconsin can’t * 13:50 Democratic outside spending: only $1M of $11M on negative ads * 15:00 Democrats’ statewide record when they outspend Republicans * 16:25 “I’m terrified”: the Democratic complacency problem * 17:29 Making the race about Trump and Tiffany, not Crowley * 18:27 Tiffany’s unpaid taxes story and why it’s not being used * 21:32 Attack, never defend: Tiffany’s toxic record * 22:12 Can a sitting congressman win the governor’s race? * 23:54 Trump’s low approval, gas prices, and the voter-motivation question * 25:26 “Anger wanes”: why Democrats must keep reminding voters * 25:51 Why Crowley needs a Democratic legislature (Robin Voss and the budget) * 26:20 Congressional races: Rebecca Cook, Mitchell Berman, and the DCCC * 27:15 “Leaving cheddar on the table”: calling for 100% negative * 29:05 Keep the message simple: a hammer, not a carving knife * 29:55 Need for negative ads on Tiffany, and the Walker-era record * 31:08 What a Democratic trifecta could accomplish * 31:35 The “Slap Shot” analogy for the final three weeks * 32:19 Lessons from 2008: it’s in our hands * 32:52 Scott Ross’s play, The Senator Can See You Now * 35:01 The play’s non-partisan, profanity-free approach * 36:04 Final thoughts: “Go fight, win” * 36:33 Outro This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. This week’s episode features Dr. Christopher Ford, a board-certified emergency medicine physician based in Milwaukee, and host of the Pulse Check Wisconsin podcast, where he connects healthcare, community and policy. He recently hosted David Crowley to talk about his health care plan, and you can find that episode here. Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good is off this week, but you can find her latest on Instagram. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 Welcome, and Dr. Chris Ford joins the chat * 00:24 Tangent: why male contraception is still a decade away * 01:35 Crowley proposes a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights * 04:17 Why the amendment draws a clear line against Tiffany * 06:06 Why Wisconsin has no ballot initiative, and Ron Johnson’s “let voters decide” ploy * 08:31 Show-and-tell: uterus stress balls and OB-GYN conference swag * 10:10 Tiffany and eliminating the state income tax: who pays for it? * 16:56 School referendums: 71 districts, 77 questions * 20:43 Why Democrats struggle to connect the dots for voters * 22:26 Nobody wants to be the “tax-and-spend” candidate * 24:39 Making it personal: Tiffany, Van Orden, and lockstep with Trump * 26:49 Down-ballot outlook: anti-Trump mood vs. megadonor money * 33:23 Assembly races to watch: Franklin vs. Tollefson (88th), Novak (51st), Donovan vs. Brist (61st) * 36:51 Zimmerman vs. Knoke in River Falls and the open Oak Creek seat * 40:03 State Senate spotlight: Marklein vs. Jacobson in the 17th * 41:42 Election interference: ICE, ballot seizures, and deepfakes * 46:32 Absentee returns are down: fear of the mail, or fading pandemic habits? * 50:35 Wisconsin elections are secure: make your voting plan * 52:33 Up North News live event with Crowley and Josh Kaul, Oct. 14 at the Overture Center * 54:09 Coming up next week: Tiffany skips another event * 54:44 Obama endorses David Crowley * 56:56 Chris’s week: Gee’s Clippers event, Gov. Wes Moore, and Pulse Check Wisconsin * 57:49 Preview: the Nov. 6 post-election episode and 2028 speculation * 58:25 Becky Nichols plug (AD 53), Brewers talk, and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Mark Pocan served 14 years in the Wisconsin State Assembly before being elected to Congress in 2012, and is now in his seventh term representing Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District. Congressman Pocan is running unopposed for re-election this year, and is getting to work helping other candidates in Wisconsin as part of Democrats’ quest to flip the House of Representatives. The 3rd Congressional District contest between Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke has always been considered especially competitive, but now, given the national environment, the 1st Congressional District is very much in play, Pocan says. A Kenosha native himself, Pocan sees a real opportunity for Democrat Mitchell Berman to unseat Republican Bryan Steil. Along with the 1st District — and Bryan Steil’s unique electoral vulnerabilities, particularly around stock trading — Pocan discussed his often contentious relationship with Rep. Derrick Van Orden, and what might happen if Democrats take the House in the midterms. Plus: As someone who was part of the majority the last time Democrats controlled the Assembly, he offered his thoughts on key downballot races and the potential for the first Democratic trifecta in more than 15 years. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, check out our timestamps below: * 00:00:14 Welcome and Meet Congressman Mark Pocan * 00:00:45 Running Unopposed in the Midterms * 00:02:46 Why This Election Is “Definitional” * 00:05:07 Trump’s Slipping Approval in Wisconsin * 00:05:51 Wisconsin’s 1st District: Mitchell Berman vs. Brian Steil * 00:07:53 The Congressional Stock Trading Ban Fight * 00:10:31 Crypto Money and Steil’s Regulatory Role * 00:12:17 Inside Steil’s “Stop Insider Trading Act” Loopholes * 00:18:49 Can Democrats Flip the House? Red to Blue and Iowa * 00:20:44 Wisconsin’s 3rd District: Rebecca Cook vs. Derek Van Orden * 00:22:30 Pocan on Van Orden’s Controversies * 00:26:49 Tom Tiffany, the Governor’s Race, and the Wisconsin Delegation * 00:29:50 What a Democratic House Majority Would Mean * 00:33:12 Medicaid Cuts and Health Care as the 2028 Issue * 00:35:56 The Shot at a Democratic Trifecta in Wisconsin * 00:38:31 Down-Ballot Races: Assembly District 51 and Senate District 17 * 00:41:09 Three Billionaires and Wisconsin Republican Funding * 00:43:15 Pocan on D.C. Consultants * 00:44:52 “Democrats Take Billionaire Money Too”: Citizens United and Campaign Finance Reform * 00:48:44 Final Thoughts: “The Most Important Election of Our Lives” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Oct. 2, at 1 p.m. You can find us every Friday at that time to tune in live. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 Welcome + the Hawks vs. Hawkeyes Senate hearing mix-up * 01:10 Travel chaos: O’Hare vs. the Milwaukee airport * 04:46 Tiffany dodges debates (just one, on WISN 12) * 05:41 Tiffany turns down the Marquette “get to know” event * 07:24 Tiffany’s health care answer: “price transparency” * 08:32 Tax cuts on everything and what they’d defund * 09:19 Billionaires paying for 90%+ of Tiffany’s campaign * 10:31 Marquette poll: Crowley leads 49–46 * 12:24 Crowley’s big lead with independent voters * 14:27 Why independents are shifting: gas, groceries, health care * 16:55 Flipping the script: federal taxes and Tiffany’s votes with Trump * 19:21 Trump’s approval hits a Wisconsin low * 21:50 Will Crowley fight back? * 22:52 Valley Victory and Fox Valley momentum * 25:16 How Democrats could flip the Assembly * 26:04 Which state Senate seats Democrats need * 31:16 Francesca Hong’s tour: “Do not write me in” * 34:39 Billionaires vs. the people: does that message work? * 36:18 The Uihleins, Hendricks, and their tax break * 38:17 Voters now trust Democrats on cost of living * 39:06 Republicans have no wins to run on * 40:46 The big question: will frustrated voters show up? * 42:48 Door-knocking that starts with listening * 44:33 How clean energy cuts raise your bills * 46:14 How Crowley helped keep the Brewers in Milwaukee * 51:59 Crowley’s 2027 Milwaukee County budget * 54:01 Dan’s state Senate endorsements * 55:29 Down-ballot candidates: Shae Sortwell (Assembly District 2) * 57:51 Tiffany campaign blocks reporters * 58:35 Next week: election day plans and pushing back on attacks * 1:01:26 Wrap-up: Brewers, Badgers and chili season This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

As we get closer and closer to the Nov. 3 election, there’s been an issue that’s continued to emerge as an especially contentious one – data centers. Perhaps more specifically, it’s been the type of hyperscale AI data centers that are being proposed or built all over the country, including here in Wisconsin. From a political standpoint, a broad opposition to these data centers has emerged in a big way, with the most recent polling from the Marquette University Law School showing that 78% of voters say the costs outweigh the benefits for these mega-projects, and only 21% saying the benefits outweigh the costs. And this issue is one that does not necessarily cut along traditional political lines. While Democratic voters have become the most opposed to data centers, almost two-thirds of Republican voters are against data centers, and about 80% of independent voters are against them, too. In the months since polling on data centers has tipped this way, we’ve seen politicians up and down the ballot — from the governor’s race to all sorts of Senate and Assembly races — highlight data centers as a top issue, be it on the campaign trail or in attack ads or whatever it might be. But part of what might be missing from this larger conversation on data centers is a dialogue on what is actually happening in Wisconsin when it comes to data centers. So, I’m hosting a two-part conversation on this issue with Wisconsin journalists who are covering this from different angles. This is not to advocate for any one side of this — you can probably guess where I stand, frankly — but to better understand a complex and polarizing issue. For this part of the conversation, my guest is Chali Pittman, a journalist from Madison who is currently a staff writer at the Isthmus, was formerly the News & Talk Director at WORT, and is my former colleague at Civic Media, when she was the News Director and I was the Political Editor. In the months when we worked together, we talked about data center politics often, and since, separate from all of your other work, Chali launched a Substack newsletter called Data Processor, which is taking a look at this issue in a really unique way. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these titles and timestamps below. 00:00 – Intro: Data Centers Become an Election Issue 01:42 – Meet Chali Pittman of Isthmus and the Data Processor Newsletter 02:28 – Why She Started Data Processor 04:45 – A Policy Deep Dive: Zoning, Land Use, and Energy Regulation 06:21 – What Surprised Her Most: It’s Really About Energy 08:00 – Rising Bills, Fossil Fuel Plants, and Renewable Energy Limits 10:18 – Tiffany, the Becky Transmission Line, and Rural Opposition 14:21 – Strange Bedfellows: The Caledonia Plan Commission Meeting 18:18 – The Big-Tent Opposition and the David Wallace-Wells Essay 20:34 – NDAs, Tax Credits, and TIF: Economic Development Tools Stretched to Fit 23:43 – “Speed and Scale” and Not All Developers Are Alike 26:50 – Pitting Communities Against Each Other: The DeForest Case 28:21 – Towns, Villages, Annexation, and Generational Land Use Fights 30:42 – QTS Pulls Out and the Village PR Problem 32:17 – The Moratorium Debate: Francesca Hong’s Campaign Impact 33:51 – What Other States and Wisconsin Counties Have Done 37:44 – Crowley vs. Tiffany: “Local Control” and Renewable Energy Promises 41:06 – Where Does This Go Next? Lawmakers, Voters, and Civic Engagement 44:16 – The Data Processor Book Club: Reading List on AI and Energy 48:53 – Wrap-Up and Where to Subscribe This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

As we get closer and closer to the Nov. 3 election, there’s been an issue that’s continued to emerge as an especially contentious one – data centers. Perhaps more specifically, it’s been the type of hyperscale AI data centers that are being proposed or built all over the country, including here in Wisconsin. From a political standpoint, a broad opposition to these data centers has emerged in a big way, with the most recent polling from the Marquette University Law School showing that 78% of voters say the costs outweigh the benefits for these mega-projects, and only 21% saying the benefits outweigh the costs. And this issue is one that does not necessarily cut along traditional political lines. While Democratic voters have become the most opposed to data centers, almost two-thirds of Republican voters are against data centers, and about 80% of independent voters are against them, too. In the months since polling on data centers has tipped this way, we’ve seen politicians up and down the ballot — from the governor’s race to all sorts of Senate and Assembly races — highlight data centers as a top issue, be it on the campaign trail or in attack ads or whatever it might be. But part of what might be missing from this larger conversation on data centers is a dialogue on what is actually happening in Wisconsin when it comes to data centers. So, I’m hosting a two-part conversation on this issue with Wisconsin journalists who are covering this from different angles. This is not to advocate for any one side of this — you can probably guess where I stand, frankly — but to better understand a complex and polarizing issue. For the first part of this conversation, my guest is Andrew Weiland, the editor of BizTimes Milwaukee, an independently-owned and operated business news media company. BizTimes recently published a cover story with the headline, “It’s the Data Center Economy” and he and the rest of the team have been covering this issue closely in a variety of ways.For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these titles and timestamps below. * 00:00 – Intro: Data Centers Become an Election Issue * 01:49 – Meet Andrew Weiland of BizTimes Milwaukee * 03:20 – How BizTimes Covers the Data Center Boom * 04:06 – The Big Projects: Microsoft, Oracle/OpenAI, and Meta * 05:41 – The Supply Chain Story Flying Under the Radar * 06:26 – “The Data Center Economy”: Bubble and Backlash Risks * 08:00 – Wisconsin Winners: Generac’s $8 Billion Amazon Deal * 11:10 – Modine’s Cooling Systems and New Racine and Franklin Jobs * 13:31 – Secrecy, NDAs, and How Developers Pitch Projects * 15:49 – The Reporter’s Side: Breaking Stories Before Deals Are Announced * 17:25 – Microsoft Forgoes a $5 Million Mount Pleasant Incentive * 18:16 – TIF Explained: Wisconsin’s Main Development Tool * 21:17 – Incentives Then and Now: WEDC, Sales Tax Exemptions, and Stadium Comparisons * 24:21 – Port Washington and the Question of Job Numbers * 25:51 – Why the Backlash: Power Costs, Big Tech Fatigue, and a Physical Footprint * 27:27 – Foxconn’s Legacy and Public Distrust * 28:59 – How Foxconn Became a Political Deal * 31:21 – From Foxconn Land to Data Centers: Power, Water, Noise, and AI Anxiety * 33:07 – Closing Thought: Technological Change Rolls On * 36:19 – Jurassic Park Warning and Sign-Off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps. As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall. I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements, and we are featuring each of these Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidates with a special podcast conversation. In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people. One of those people is Mark Becker. Becker is the former chair of The Republican Party of Brown County (who has since left the party in the Trump years), a small business owner, a former radio show host, and he’s also been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area. He is running as an independent in Senate District 1. Becker is great candidate and a terrific person, and one of my favorite people to talk politics with. He is a man of principle, and stood firm in his beliefs as the party he used to be a part of took a turn toward Trump. That’s the type of quality we could really use in a state senator right about now. In our conversation, we talked about Mark’s path to politics, leaving the Republican Party over Trump and other issues like marriage equality and women’s rights, confronting Ron Johnson over election denialism, running for Senate as an independent, the independent streak of politics in northeastern Wisconsin, how a new majority might govern in the Wisconsin State Legislature, and more. Find out more about Mark’s campaign here. You can watch this conversation on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here: For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 01:40 Meet Mark Becker, running for State Senate in District 1 * 02:24 Mark’s background and path into politics * 03:07 Trying to join the National Guard and a blunt recruiter conversation * 03:48 Growing up Catholic, conservative, and service-minded * 04:29 Rising to chairman of the Brown County Republican Party * 04:29 Speaking out on marriage equality and women’s rights within the GOP * 05:55 Leaving the party over Trump * 07:18 Confronting Ron Johnson over 2020 election denialism * 08:39 Writing an op-ed in The Bulwark about the call * 09:19 Ron Johnson’s furious text on January 7th * 10:39 Running for Senate as an independent * 11:19 The open seat: a Republican primary, no Democrat, and an independent * 11:59 Doors, party walls, and reactions to “independent” * 12:43 No independent state senator in 135 years * 13:26 Northeastern Wisconsin’s independent streak * 14:49 A tale of two doors: voters fed up on both sides * 16:13 17 years without a cost-of-living upgrade * 16:57 A “fork in the road” election and 16 years without accountability * 18:21 What an independent win would mean for District 1’s leverage * 19:44 A diverse district: Door County, Knowles-Nelson, and Wrightstown affordability * 21:07 Extremism, gerrymandering, and how the maps have changed since 2010s/2022 * 23:10 Governing like a “deep red state” despite being purple * 23:53 Resisting the temptation to govern like the other side did * 25:19 Messaging that blurs party lines in Northeast Wisconsin * 25:59 Democrats’ need to invest more in the region * 26:40 “How goes Northeast Wisconsin, so goes Wisconsin” * 27:20 National chaos bleeding into local politics * 29:22 A Brown County Board fight over an LGBT history museum exhibit * 30:05 The exhausting, “deep cuts” political mood of the moment * 31:29 Final thoughts and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the campaign headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps. As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall. If you missed that when we published last week, you can find it all here. I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements, and we are featuring each of these Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidates with a special podcast conversation. In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people. One of those people is Emily Tseffos. She is the chair of the Democratic Party of Outagamie County, she is an educator, a community organizer, and has been a contributor here at The Recombobulation Area — and is a terrific writer. See some of her work here: Emily is now running for State Senate in District 19 located in the Fox Valley and parts of central Wisconsin. As a tireless advocate for the people of her community and someone with a unique understanding of both the little things and the bigger picture, Emily Tseffos would be an outstanding state senator and has our endorsement. Find out more about her campaign here. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:14 Intro: Previewing every legislative race and a rare endorsement * 01:38 Meet Emily Tseffos, running for State Senate in District 19 * 02:19 Endorsement thanks and introductions * 02:59 From Outagamie County chair to Assembly candidate to Senate run * 03:41 Why door-knocking is the best part of campaigning * 04:21 A sprawling district: an hour and a half end to end * 05:04 Getting through misinformation at the door * 05:47 Planting seeds in a red district for the long term * 07:08 District geography: Wautoma, Waupaca, Red Granite, New London * 07:51 Unfulfilled campaign promises and how Republicans view Milwaukee/Dane Co. * 08:31 Naming the “correct villain”: health care premiums and property taxes * 09:15 Frustration with cultural-issue questions vs. kitchen-table costs * 09:55 Finding common ground even with Republican voters * 10:35 Sitting on doors for 20 minutes to really talk through issues * 12:18 Surprised “bathroom safety” is still a doorstep topic * 14:30 Government overreach into personal decisions * 15:15 Campaign strategy: micro-targeted digital ads as “digital yard signs” * 16:38 Welcoming the politically homeless without shame * 17:23 Online hostility vs. real in-person conversations * 19:26 Fox Valley “vibe check”: 40-some days out * 20:06 Post-primary lull and voters starting to talk again * 20:46 Persuasion doors and drawing everything back to prices * 22:09 Tariffs hitting agriculture, manufacturing, and small business * 23:31 Political shifts across Fox Valley counties * 24:11 More opportunities for Democrats to prioritize the Fox Valley * 26:02 The big picture: stakes of 2027 and a possible trifecta * 26:42 Priorities: public schools, utility costs, relief for working people * 28:03 The Joint Finance Committee hurdle * 28:44 Dan’s read on Democrats’ chances in the Senate and Assembly * 29:27 Final thoughts and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Nov. 3 election is coming up soon, and while the race for governor has drawn most of the campaign headlines here in Wisconsin — with good reason, in many cases — the race for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature is also an incredibly big deal, and will determine so much about the future of our great state. This is the first election in the state legislature where the gerrymandered maps are completely gone, with both the Senate and Assembly having all of their elections on new, fairer maps. As we always do at The Recombobulation Area, we are previewing every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature — the 17 races happening in the State Senate, and the 99 happening in the State Assembly, along with the balance of power overall. If you missed that when we published last week, you can find it all here. I’m also adding something a little different this time. I’m making a few endorsements. In recent years, I have not typically endorsed specific candidates in specific races, but I’m making a few exceptions for people who I’ve gotten to know a bit over the years, and who I think very highly of — in their work and as people. One of those people is State Rep. Robyn Vining. Vining was the first Democrat to flip a seat under gerrymandered maps when she won an extremely close race in 2018, and she’s now won re-election three more times since then, and is now running to be the next state senator to represent District 5, located in Milwaukee’s western suburbs. Vining is a terrific candidate and wonderful person, and has been a fighter on issues like health care, public education and small business in her time in the Assembly. With a win on Nov. 3, she could help flip the Senate for Democrats for the first time in 16 years. In our conversation, we talked about Robyn’s path to politics, reflected on her eight years in the Assembly, discussed some of the more outlandish campaign tactics she’s seeing in this year’s race (including a mailer that put her personal cell phone number on it), and looked ahead to the election in November and the potential for a Democratic trifecta in 2027. Find out more about Robyn’s campaign for State Senate here. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 01:35 Meet Robyn Vining, the first Democrat to flip a seat under the gerrymander * 02:40 Robyn’s background and path into politics * 03:43 A mom of two, protesting in Act 10the Scott Walker era * 04:28 The “Love Wins” sign and rejecting divide-and-conquer politics * 05:10 Running in 2018 and cracking the gerrymander * 06:32 From small business photographer to the state Capitol * 08:45 Community support and the power of good candidates * 10:12 Eight years in the Assembly under divided government * 11:35 Unexpected attention, obstruction, and “fraternizing with the enemy” * 12:59 The gerrymander is gone: fighting off a supermajority and winning fairer maps * 13:47 Wisconsin as the 49th state to pass postpartum Medicaid expansion, and sharing credit with advocates * 15:09 Preventable maternal deaths and the pressure that moved Republicans * 15:50 Bipartisan wins: perimenopause and menopause education bill * 16:50 Mental health care, UW building funding, and child care * 18:12 Shifting the conversation on child care and school funding * 18:58 Referendums, property taxes, and strangled local governments * 20:18 How the Joint Finance Committee guts the budget * 22:20 What could change with a chance at unified government * 23:01 A tough campaign: MAGA tactics and a mailer with her personal cell number * 24:22 Legislation to protect future candidates from harassment * 25:07 Why door-knocking matters: asking voters what they’re feeling * 26:30 Building a “We, the People” budget from what voters say * 27:12 Voters’ top concerns: child care, food, gas, and housing costs * 28:36 Young people’s worries: housing, AI, data centers, and surveillance * 30:04 Senate District 5: the communities and how the area has changed * 31:25 Understanding the suburbs in the Trump era * 32:49 Final thoughts: get involved just weeks to go * 33:32 Sharing credit with volunteers and door-knockers * 34:13 “Marching orders for January” and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. This episode features Angela Lang, co-executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, filling in for Dan Shafer. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Sept. 25, at 1 p.m. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: Wisconsin Politics Group Chat — with guest Angela Lang (BLOC) * 00:00:00 – Intro, tech check, and welcoming guest Angela Lang, executive director of BLOC (Black Leaders Organizing for Change) * 00:00:22 – Dan’s absence explained/roasted; the group’s Lambeau Field tailgate mix-up * 00:02:15 – Big story: Tom Tiffany banning a Journal Sentinel reporter (Mary Spicuzza) from his campaign * 00:05:33 – Comparing Tiffany’s press ban to Trump barring outlets like Politico/CNN/MSNBC * 00:08:47 – League of Women Voters’ struggle to stay “neutral” as candidates refuse debates * 00:09:22 – Skye Perryman’s book Ordinary People, Extraordinary Times and last night’s Lambeau tailgate as “accountability” conversation * 00:12:08 – Northern Door Activism’s Constitution-amendments zine and reading the First Amendment aloud * 00:14:36 – Reflections on political bubbles and reaching “normal,” non-hyper-engaged voters * 00:16:53 – The “beer garden” controversy: Tiffany claiming David Crowley called Milwaukee beer gardens racist * 00:20:59 – Pivot to cost-of-living issues, Tiffany’s voting record on the housing bill and Iran war votes * 00:23:36 – On-the-ground read from Milwaukee: affordability concerns and BLOC’s canvassing/door-knocking prep * 00:27:00 – Post-Labor Day momentum, attack ads on Crowley, and cautious optimism about turnout * 00:27:58 – Francesca Hong’s post-primary statewide tour supporting Crowley and the trifecta effort * 00:31:22 – Kate’s story on livestreaming Tiffany’s Moms for Liberty event and his DEI/funding threats * 00:32:55 – Tiffany’s property-tax-freeze promise vs. its impact on public school funding * 00:34:21 – Voting logistics: mail-in ballots, October 20th early voting, myvote.wi.gov registration * 00:36:13 – Tiffany welcoming federal agents “on the ground” for Election Day; historical voter-intimidation tactics (Scott Walker billboards) * 00:39:49 – Call to action: poll watching/working, individual voting plans, restored voting rights * 00:40:23 – National Early Vote Day (Oct 24) and a BLOC team member’s “MyVote” music video * 00:42:10 – Upcoming No Kings marches (Oct 17, incl. Green Bay) and early voting tie-in * 00:43:11 – Billionaire spending in Wisconsin races and one-vote-per-person as a check on wealth * 00:45:10 – Ballot tracking via myvote.wi.gov (”like tracking an Amazon package”) * 00:46:57 – Mark Becker: former GOP county chair now running as independent in Senate District 1 * 00:47:57 – Whether Republicans will distance from Trump if Democrats win big in midterms * 00:49:44 – Closing message: “see your vote through” — vote, then organize/advocate afterward * 00:51:04 – Wrap-up, plans for a group Lambeau Field game on Oct 29, thanking Angela This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Sept. 18, at 1 p.m. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 01:22 Measles in Wisconsin & vaccination rates * 02:20 “Diarrhea lettuce” — why people aren’t paying attention * 03:00 Farmers are persuadable: the 40% stat * 05:41 Who are these farmers? Small vs. mega-farms * 06:07 Diesel, harvest season & the cost squeeze * 07:21 “It’s Biden’s fault” — 607 days later * 08:30 What would make you break up with Trump? * 09:45 Trump’s worst-ever approval numbers * 10:47 The Iran war and what it’s doing to prices * 13:00 The three November referendums explained * 16:47 The places-of-worship amendment & pandemic rage * 19:04 Why Republicans don’t advertise these amendments * 20:02 WI-06: Brad Smith vs. Glenn Grothman * 22:07 Kristin on WI-08: losing but building power * 23:18 The spoiler math — independents & Green Party * 25:11 Independent experiments: Mark Becker, SD-9 * 27:01 WI-01: Mitchell Berman gets DCCC money * 27:37 Are Democrats writing off Van Orden? * 30:02 Van Orden’s TMZ interview & the motorcycle * 32:29 Red to Blue, and how to actually beat Steil * 37:04 Berman’s record + Kristin’s upcoming interview * 37:36 WI-07: the “nepo baby” and the debate dodge * 39:06 Fred Clark’s long-odds case * 41:33 SD-25: Charlie Ray and the trifecta math * 42:53 The Bulwark story: Sean Duffy’s donor pipeline * 44:14 The Great American Road Trip grift * 46:24 A rubber stamp in Congress * 47:25 MAGA breaks with Trump on AI * 48:47 Salazar, Tucker, Rove, MTG — the cracks * 50:16 Pump the brakes on blue tsunami talk * 51:40 Affordability is a tanker, not a speedboat * 52:20 Election integrity & what’s coming * 53:11 Vote early, use a drop box * 53:32 Be the annoying friend (the Velvet Underground rule) * 55:21 Sway’s $500 ballot parties * 56:07 The fuse bead video & rural healthcare math * 57:44 Crowley’s anti-corruption agenda vs. Tiffany’s record * 58:58 Tiffany’s three billionaires * 59:25 Why the anti-Crowley attacks aren’t landing * 01:00:44 Property taxes: the call is coming from inside the house * 01:02:15 New segment: “What Are You Drinking?” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

With less than 50 days to go before the Nov. 3 election, Todd Allbaugh joined the podcast to recombobulate on the state of the race. Todd is a former Republican who left the party during the Walker years, was a legislative staffer for former state senator Dale Schultz, and was the host of the “Todd Allbaugh Show” on Civic Media for several years. He’s also from Richland Center, which is right in range of many of the most closely competitive races happening in Wisconsin this year, including ones in the 3rd Congressional District, 51st Assembly District, and the 17th Senate District. Allbaugh and host Dan Shafer talked about these elections, the race for governor, whether or not there should more than one debate between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany, the potential for a Democratic trifecta in Wisconsin, Democrats seeing an opportunity in the 1st Congressional District (and Mitchell Berman’s strong ad there), and much more. See a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode here. * (00:00:15) Intro — welcome back after a short break * (00:01:15) Sponsor: Milwaukee Film's Dialogues Documentary Festival * (00:02:02) Guest introduction: Todd Allbaugh * (00:03:28) State Legislature landscape: post-gerrymander competitiveness, GOP retirements * (00:05:27) Big-picture outlook for Western/Southwest Wisconsin races * (00:06:10) Todd's political background: Dale Schultz, Scott Klug, leaving the GOP in 2011 * (00:08:11) 3rd Congressional District: Derrick Van Orden vs. Rebecca Cooke * (00:14:20) Cooke’s big tent, Bernie Sanders' endorsement, authenticity debate, Van Orden's constituent services * (00:17:22) Turning to down-ballot legislative races * (00:18:16) 51st Assembly District: Todd Novak vs. Ben Gruber (Novak's anti-trans ad controversy) * (00:23:35) 17th Senate District: Howard Marklein vs. Jenna Jacobson * (00:33:04) Shifting to the Governor's race: Crowley vs. Tiffany * (00:34:01) Tom Tiffany's plane crash incident * (00:36:02) Crowley's visibility problem: yard signs, social media, name recognition * (00:41:32) Suburban "WOW counties" and swing region dynamics * (00:44:03) How Todd thinks Crowley really won the primary; advice for his campaign * (00:47:00) Top issue: affordability, tariffs, tying Tiffany to Trump * (00:52:16) GOP hypocrisy on "waste, fraud and abuse" * (00:53:06) Debate format debate: only one gubernatorial debate this cycle * (00:56:02) Final predictions: State Senate, Assembly, trifecta odds * (01:00:03) Closing: voter registration reminder, final thoughts, Talarico's Texas Senate race This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. Find all of these episodes on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed (Apple Podcasts, Spotify, here on Substack). There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Sept. 11, at 1 p.m. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 0:00 Dan’s back (and so is the tech chaos) * 0:55 Kristin brought a list: the AG race, Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney * 3:31 “Trifecta plus Josh” and why the whole ballot matters * 7:33 Former congressman Reid Ribble says what current Republicans won’t * 10:29 Trumpapalooza, $5K checks & Van Orden’s fraud commission * 14:11 Van Orden “saved” health care (he didn’t) * 18:43 Postpartum Medicaid & Kristin’s double bird * 21:00 Sleazy AI attack ads * 22:37 Dan’s temperature check: settle-down juice & data centers * 28:40 Tiffany’s record, midterm turnout & dodged debates * 31:25 Bumper sticker politics * 34:47 When does the governor’s race heat up? * 35:49 Your feed isn’t the electorate * 40:34 Door-knocking candidates in tough districts * 44:45 “Unlock the block”: flipping the Legislature * 48:43 How to help local candidates * 50:44 Dan’s flip-seat speed round * 55:20 Daycare bills up $160/month * 57:13 Voting plans round robin * 1:00:30 MyVote WI & the Domino’s ballot tracker Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here: You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify (embedded below), Apple Podcasts (available here), and right here on Substack. Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea. Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend. Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off! Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. Find all of these episodes on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed (Apple Podcasts, Spotify, here on Substack). There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 – Welcome Back, Kristen — Post-op recovery banter, road-trip time with kids, and Chris Taylor’s Supreme Court investiture in Madison. * 04:44 – A Liberal Supreme Court Majority — Justice Karofsky’s plan to bring the court to communities, and the 5-2 liberal majority. * 06:03 – Primary Post-Mortem: Who Turned Out — Why primary electorates skew fringe, the WisGOP-endorsed candidates fall flat * 12:26 – Kristen’s Takes on Primary Night — Reliving election night chaos, the Crowley/Godlewski/Hong governor’s race, and the tight three-way 8th CD primary. * 16:46 – Down-Ballot Races & Media Blind Spots — The 6th CD (Grothman vs. Brad Smith), vote-splitting independents, and frustration that local races get ignored by the press. * 19:07 – Mapping the Crowley-Hong Results — Regional breakdown of the primary, with Waukesha and the WOW counties standing out as a Crowley stronghold. * 23:00 – From Waukesha to Wausau — How do downballot races look now that we know who is on the top of the ticket? * 25:24 – The Michelle Magadance Skinner Scandal — Dual-residency and cross-state voting controversy in the Chippewa Valley Senate race. * 31:22 – The Fake Poll Mystery — The fake polling “experiment” revealed in the days after the Wisconsin governor’s primary. * 36:37 – How Reliable Were the Polls? — State Navigate vs. Marquette, late-breaking undecided voters, and shifting midterm turnout dynamics. * 45:14 – Data Centers as a Campaign Issue — Affordability vs. data centers as top voter concerns, and how the issue is being weaponized heading into the general. * 52:49 – Comparing the Gubernatorial Interviews — Tiffany dodging the 2020 election question vs. Crowley’s interview style. * 55:37 – Wrap-Up: Distractions Ahead — A call to stay civically engaged, a Jon Ossoff “lock in” shoutout, and sign-off. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

After a discombobulating primary election night, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is now the Democratic nominee for governor. And while we knew this was coming — she was uncontested in her run, after all — Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski is now the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. Godlewski is off on the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s “Unity Tour,” which started with a breakfast-turned-brunch in Madison on Wednesday. She joined us from the road, just before the tour’s Thursday morning event in Oshkosh, and shared a few stories of that breakfast, and, in particular, an exchange with State Rep. Francesca Hong. “When I got to the “Unity Brunch,” the first person that I saw was Fran,” said Godlewski. “And I gave her the biggest bear hug because I was just…I’m so proud of her. I mean, she came from an underdog position — nobody thought she would ever get this far; they were writing her off before she even started — and she just put her head down and went to work. She wasn’t lobbing any ugly statements at people, she just put her head down and talked about what she was going to do for the people of Wisconsin — and it’s why she built a coalition of 7,000 (volunteers). That’s more than what we’ve seen in a presidential primary. It was incredible.” Godlewski also talked about being on the ticket with David Crowley, reacted to the chaos of the last few weeks, talked about what her role on the campaign is going to be, the efforts to elect Democrats up and down the ballot, and much more. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 – Introduction: primary election recap, David Crowley wins Democratic nod for governor, Godlewski’s unopposed run for lieutenant governor nomination * 02:49 – Wednesday morning: confirming Crowley, first call, and “who’d play him in a movie” joke * 05:02 – The Unity Brunch and genuine unity among former rivals * 05:32 – Reconnecting with Francesca Hong: her underdog campaign and their friendship * 08:20 – Bringing Hong’s coalition and supporters into the fold * 09:46 – What resonated in Hong’s campaign that Crowley could adopt * 11:36 – Godlewski’s role on the campaign for the next ~83 days, including reproductive freedom * 13:33 – Reaching Western Wisconsin swing voters (the key issue: healthcare) * 16:00 – Tom Tiffany’s week: Trump alignment and the “MAGA extremism” pamphlet * 18:25 – Godlewski’s role as Wisconsin Dem Party vice chair * 20:04 – Building unity across the party, flipping legislative seats, the path to a Democratic trifecta * 21:43 – Closing thoughts: the Unity Tour ice cream tradition and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe