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The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. And this week, there’s obviously a whole lot to talk about because DAVID CROWLEY WON THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR AND DEMOCRATS FLIPPED THE STATE LEGISLATURE! Along with talking about the remarkable results from Tuesday — Crowley’s 8.2% win, three-for-three flips in the Senate, eight-for-eight flips in the Assembly — we looked ahead to what might be in store for a Democratic trifecta. This episode aired live on Motherhood for Good’s YouTube Channel on Friday, Nov. 6, at 11 a.m. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode, see below: * 0:00 – Going Live and “Retired” Anchor Banter: Kreitlow trades flannel for island wear, with Brewers championship gear on the way * 0:49 – Election Night in Milwaukee, Together at Last: The first in-person show, and the hunt for a bar after midnight * 2:35 – Livestream Chaos and a Shoutout to Producer Chris: Tech troubles and thanks to the election-night crew * 3:17 – Local Election Commentary as a New Media Model: Why the hosts think more local, loosely produced coverage is needed * 4:36 – Real-Time Reactions: Kate’s reflexes versus Dan’s “need more data,” and an eight-for-eight Assembly night * 6:07 – The Biggest Midterm Wave Since Watergate: Cook Political Report results and Republicans’ red-wave predictions * 8:15 – How Did the Polls Do?: Marquette’s Crowley +7 versus the 8.2-point result * 9:23 – Crowley Dominates Milwaukee County and City: 76% countywide and 85.1% in the city, ahead of Obama’s marks * 11:59 – The Northern Wisconsin Map Problem: The “new Kansas” and where the shifts were smaller * 13:44 – Fox Valley Flips: Crowley wins Brown and Winnebago counties * 14:08 – Rural Messaging Gap: Gillett’s failed school referendum and the case for county-level organizing * 15:25 – Young Men Swing Left: Shifts among men 18–44 in key Senate states * 16:45 – Why Voters Moved: ICE, women’s health, health care, and gas prices, plus MAHA women as a possible opening for Democrats * 18:23 – “Tired of the Assholery”: Republicans’ own postmortems and what they say about Trump * 20:20 – Trump’s Record and the Republican Party’s Responsibility: Whether a fiscally conservative GOP can reemerge * 21:36 – Republicans Aren’t Getting the Message: Ron Johnson’s reaction and “this isn’t just Trump” * 24:22 – What Happens Now in the Legislature: Leadership elections and what Democrats can actually get done * 25:34 – Kreitlow’s Watchlist for Democrats: Low-hanging fruit, the overreach trap on the minimum wage, and 2028 messaging * 27:49 – Better Messaging: The Mamdani team’s social approach and bringing in storytellers * 28:51 – Chorus and Creator-Driven Progressive Media: The influence of creators and a young campaign staff in Texas * 31:24 – Crowley’s Budget Headline and the Need for Context: Misleading coverage and the role of independent journalists * 32:48 – Delivering Results Voters Can Feel: The to-do list for Hesselbein, Neubauer, and the new trifecta * 35:17 – Connect the Dots: Gas prices, tariffs, shovel-ready projects, and lead pipe remediation * 37:23 – Eye-Popping Down-Ballot Results: Assembly flips, SD25, and the 25-point swing in AD21 * 40:27 – Republican Leadership Bails and the AI Slop Ads: Why attack ads may have backfired * 41:51 – Will the Mega-Donors Keep Spending?: Musk, Uihlein, and Hendricks, and campaign finance reform * 43:22 – The Blue Ribbon Commission Debate: Whether Crowley’s school funding commission is needed * 46:33 – Crowley the Bridge Builder: Governing for all of Wisconsin versus moving fast * 50:51 – Democratic Tensions and the Voucher Dilemma: Milwaukee Democrats versus the rest of the caucus * 52:58 – “Wisconsin Is a Blue State”: Tommy Thompson’s quote and how gerrymandering weakened the GOP bench * 56:12 – A 53-Seat Assembly Majority: The biggest Democratic majority since 1992 * 57:02 – Redrawing Congressional Maps: WI-1, WI-3, and the anti-competitive gerrymander case * 59:35 – Structural Reforms: Walker loophole, early absentee counting, automatic registration, and nonpartisan redistricting * 1:00:39 – Why Redistricting Reform Didn’t Happen Last Time: Kreitlow’s account of the 2009–10 trifecta * 1:01:45 – Stevens Point Early Voting Lines: Three-hour waits for students * 1:02:55 – What’s Next for the Group Chat: A short hiatus, budget listening sessions, and audience requests * 1:04:23 – Content Plans and Sign-Off: Substacks, podcasts, budget explainers, and a goal of universal health care If you missed our live Election Night broadcast from Tuesday, see here. Watch this and every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel: You can find every episode of the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” on The Recombobulation Area’s podcast feed, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and right here on Substack. The Recombobulation Area is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea. Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend. Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off! Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

What a night. If you missed our live election night coverage from downtown Milwaukee, revisit the full show here. David Crowley is going to be our next governor. A Democratic trifecta is happening. This was an exhilarating, triumphant Election Night, and you can relive all of it here. Featuring these absolute legends: Kate Duffy, Dr. Kristin Lyerly and Patrick Kreitlow. With Dr. Chris Ford, special guests from UpNorthNews, WisDems Chair Devin Remiker, and more. Live show produced and directed by Chris Haase. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of the moments from the Election Night Live-stream, see here: * (00:01:22) Welcome and Introductions: Pat Kreitlow, Kate Duffy, Dan Shafer, and Dr. Kristen Lyerly kick off the Wisconsin Politics group chat coverage. * (00:03:16) What to Watch: Waukesha County (Crowley needs 40%+) and La Crosse are named as early bellwethers, along with the 3rd District race. * (00:04:48) Trifecta Watch: Democrats need two Senate seats and five Assembly seats for their first trifecta in 16 years. * (00:09:16) The Road to 2026: A look back at the Supreme Court flips, fair maps, and Evers’ wins that led to this moment. * (00:10:40) A Historic Ticket: Crowley would be the first Black governor, and Zamarripa and Xiong would also make history in statewide offices. * (00:18:11) Surprise Guest Devin Remiker: The state Democratic Party chair explains the “boiler room” and names Assembly District 30 as a key race. * (00:34:07) Early Bellwether Signs: Sauk County shows Crowley ahead 52-48 with 61% reporting. * (00:43:25) Waukesha Update: Tiffany falls below 60% in Waukesha County, a good sign for Crowley statewide. * (00:49:58) Texas Called: VoteHub projects Talarico winning the Texas Senate race. * (00:58:13) Annie Andrews Wins South Carolina: The Senate race is called, followed by Rob Sand in Iowa and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia. * (01:07:46) First Assembly Flip: Becky Nichols wins in Assembly District 53. * (01:22:39) Senate Flips: Democrats claim victory in Senate Districts 5 and 21, flipping the state Senate. * (01:23:44) Crowley Wins Governor: Decision Desk HQ projects David Crowley the winner of the Wisconsin governor’s race. * (01:48:42) Rebecca Cooke Wins 3rd District: Reports emerge that Cooke has defeated Derek Van Orden. * (02:19:04) Victory Speech Reports: Kate and Kristen return from the Crowley party with reports on his speech. * (02:28:38) Trifecta Clinched: Democrats are projected to win the Assembly, completing the trifecta. * (02:36:57) US Senate Flipped: Democrats reach 51 seats, with flips in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, and more. * (02:48:20) Assembly Sweep: Democrats win all eight competitive Assembly races, projecting a 53-seat majority. * (03:25:12) Pat’s Sign-Off: Pat Kreitlow makes a special announcement, thanks the team, and closes the broadcast. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

It’s the day before the election, and I sat down with my friend Angela Lang, the co-executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (BLOC), for one last conversation before Wisconsinites head to the polls. We talk about: * Why Milwaukee is feeling the Brewers’ World Series run, and why “Milwaukee sucks” is a losing campaign message * David Crowley’s Brewers deal, his favorability in the city, and why he’s such a strong retail politician * Why Republican attacks haven’t landed, and the power of a candidate’s story * The rise of millennials in Wisconsin politics and a generational shift that’s bigger than one race * The Senate and Assembly districts where your vote could flip the legislature and produce a Democratic trifecta Plus Angela’s election-eve homework: schedule five texts to friends for 7 a.m., share a nonpartisan voter guide, check your sample ballot at myvote.wi.gov, and go “start a band.” Then join us tomorrow night after the polls close at 8 p.m. for the live coverage of election results with the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see below. * 00:00:15 – Welcome and Election Eve Check-In with Angela Lang * 00:01:00 – “Tired Is a State of Being”: GOTV Weekend and Polling Place Energy * 00:03:02 – Brewers World Series Fever Meets Election Season * 00:05:44 – Crowley, the Brewers Deal, and the Inside Story on Stadium Financing * 00:08:34 – “Milwaukee Sucks” Politics: Tiffany’s Anti-Milwaukee Campaign * 00:10:53 – Milwaukee Pride, Spite Turnout, and Past Backfires * 00:12:43 – Republicans’ “Lose by Less” Strategy and Milwaukee’s Turnout Record * 00:15:23 – Crowley’s Favorability in the City vs. Mandela Barnes * 00:16:54 – The Silent Canvas: Crowley as Someone Voters Actually Know * 00:19:21 – Crowley the Retail Politician: “Let David Be David” * 00:20:51 – Erica Crowley and the Relaunch Rally * 00:24:19 – Why Republican Attacks Haven’t Landed (Data Centers, Sales Tax) * 00:26:28 – “Boring Wins”: Evers Comparisons and a Clean Record * 00:27:43 – The Power of a Candidate’s Story and Authenticity * 00:29:46 – Bridge Building and Uniting Democratic Factions * 00:31:44 – A Generational Shift: The Rise of Millennials in Wisconsin Politics * 00:34:16 – Millennial Candidates Breaking the Consultant-Class Playbook * 00:36:45 – Down-Ballot Millennials and Polished Long-Shot Campaigns * 00:38:49 – Evers Passes the Torch to Crowley * 00:39:38 – How Young Would Crowley Be? Governors Under 50 Across the Country * 00:41:31 – Younger Candidates, Digital Creativity, and the Mamdani Model * 00:45:12 – Analog and Digital: Millennials Between Two Worlds * 00:47:07 – Final Thoughts: Voting, Nonpartisan Guides, and Texting Your Friends * 00:49:36 – “Start a Band”: Velvet Underground Analogy and Ways to Get Involved * 00:51:26 – Swing Districts and a Possible Democratic Trifecta * 00:52:55 – “Everyone Has Power” and Closing Remarks * 00:53:35 – Sign-Off and Wisconsin Politics Group Chat Live Show Preview This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The race in Assembly District 61 could determine which party controls the Assembly. Democratic challenger Ben Brist is taking on Republican incumbent Bob Donovan. This is an incredibly important race. So, we sat down with Brist to talk about his background, his career in military service, and his path to running for office for this Milwaukee County district that includes Greenfield, Greendale, Hales Corners and parts of Franklin and the city of Milwaukee. If Brist defeats Donovan, Democrats could win control of the Assembly for the first time in 16 years. In this episode, we of course start things off by talking about the MILWAUKEE BREWERS WORLD SERIES VICTORY, and what that’s meant for the city, region and state. From there, Brist shares his path from Madison to West Point and seven years as an Army infantry officer and paratrooper, and how leading a 155-soldier company shaped his focus on common purpose. He names cost of living, healthcare access, and property taxes, education funding, and local services as the top issues he hears at the doors, and makes his case for new leadership over what he calls Donovan’s career in politics. “I think people are waking up and they’re realizing that Donovan is a career politician who’s been running for office basically since 1982 and he hasn’t stopped,” he said. On Donovan’s career, and how he would seek to be different from the well-known area politician: “I think it's just broadly the difference of living a life of public service and living one seeking public office.” For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see below. * 00:00:15: Intro and welcome; Dan Shafer introduces the Wisconsin Assembly District 61 race (Ben Brist vs. Bob Donovan) * 00:00:58: Ben Brist joins the show * 00:01:15: Brewers World Series win and how Ben watched the games (Panther Pub in Greendale, American Family Field watch party) * 00:03:28: Ben’s family baseball memories and the Milwaukee celebration, including the parade and school closures * 00:04:17: Why this race matters: one of the most competitive seats in the Assembly * 00:05:05: Ben’s background: growing up in Madison, West Point, seven years in the Army, and returning to Wisconsin * 00:06:46: Life in the spotlight of a true toss-up race; the path to flipping the Assembly after 16 years * 00:07:53: Outside money in the race and Ben’s face-to-face voter outreach * 00:08:27: Top-of-ticket spending (Tiffany vs. Crowley) and the effect of the Brewers run on campaign attention * 00:09:53: What Ben took from military service: leadership as a company commander of 155 soldiers, selfless service, and common purpose * 00:12:12: Describing District 61 (Greendale, Greenfield, Hales Corners, parts of Milwaukee and Franklin) and its purple makeup * 00:13:35: Republican control of the Assembly under Robin Voss and the lack of bipartisanship * 00:14:56: How the stakes of flipping the Assembly come up with voters * 00:16:17: Top voter issues: cost of living, healthcare access, and property taxes/education funding/local services * 00:19:13: Contrasts with opponent Bob Donovan: name recognition, voting record, and “career politician” critique * 00:22:44: Dan’s discussion of Donovan’s district moves, residency questions, and record * 00:24:27: Generational change in Wisconsin politics and the “young slate” with David Crowley and Trevor Jung * 00:27:00: Closing thoughts: how to get involved, the district’s 50-50 nature, and the final days of the campaign * 00:28:07: Sign-off and thanks Watch this episode on The Recombobulation Area’s YouTube Channel here: For audio-only listeners, you can find The Recombobulation Area podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Here’s this episode, embedded below: The Recombobulation Area is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Dan Shafer is an independent journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He worked with Civic Media from 2024 to 2026. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 24 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer. Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea. Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend. Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off! Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer, at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social, and on Threads at @danshafer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

We are just days away from the Nov. 3 election in Wisconsin, and … THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS HAVE WON THE WORLD SERIES! Former WisDems chair Ben Wikler joined The Recombobulation Area the morning after the Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series, so of course, we started the episode talking about the game, this team, and what it means for Milwaukee and Wisconsin. And, of course, Wikler connected this to our current political moment. “This should be a state that makes people feel as idealistic as Brewers fans do this morning,” he said. So yes, we also have an election coming up in just a few days, so we talked about what’s happening around the state, thoughts on the race, and the home stretch of this campaign. “I toggle between feeling good and feeling nauseously optimistic,” said Wikler. We also talked about the fundraising in the race, and how Tiffany’s outsized billionaire funding of his campaign is different from anything Wikler and WisDems have been a part of, and why Democrats need to do what Republicans have never shown any inkling of doing, and close the “Walker loophole” if they win a trifecta. And about that trifecta possibility… does Wikler think it can happen? Well… “I would feel more likely than not that Democrats are going to win the trifecta, which is such a gigantic deal,” he said. Finally, Wikler closed with a call to action as we get close to Election Day. “Treat every person you talk to like they could be the voter that determines whether Democrats get a trifecta in this election,” he said. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, see below: * 00:00 Going live * 00:43 The Brewers win the World Series!!! * 03:08 The winning moment and fireworks across Milwaukee * 06:44 Why Wisconsin’s teams reflect its working-class roots * 08:33 Friday’s parade and the Brewers fever doctor’s note * 09:05 Election big picture: “nauseously optimistic” * 11:36 “Adrift in Western Wisconsin” feature and the vanishing Trump signs * 14:36 Marquette poll: tariffs, the Iran war, and inflation * 16:01 Stories from the road: Racine, Eau Claire, and student housing costs * 18:12 The affordability crisis and Trump’s “making a fortune” remarks * 20:28 Tom Tiffany, Diane Hendricks, and billionaire campaign funding * 24:22 The Walker loophole explained * 28:30 Supreme Court term limits and campaign finance reform * 30:13 Gerrymandering and the first fully post-gerrymander election * 32:42 Can Democrats win a trifecta? * 36:08 The “four horsemen”: gerrymandering, union busting, campaign finance, voter suppression * 37:21 Why Wisconsin is one of the hardest states to vote in * 39:40 Final stretch: “Pet out the vote” at Library Mall * 41:36 Every vote counts: margins and Virginia 2017 * 43:01 Wrap-up and go Brewers This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. On this episode, we reacted to the one and only gubernatorial debate between David Crowley and Tom Tiffany. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of the episode, see below: * 0:00 Cold open, show intro, 12 days to the Nov. 3 election * 2:59 How are we feeling 12 days out? * 5:00 Debate overview: Crowley vs. Tiffany performance * 10:53 Crowley’s message: “You can’t trust Tom Tiffany” * 13:24 Tiffany’s 2020 election answer and Zuckerbucks * 15:17 Wisconsin Elections Commission and democracy concerns * 18:49 Tiffany’s “magic math”: freezing taxes, the surplus, income tax cuts * 23:54 Rebate checks, tax-cut messaging and trickle-down economics * 32:02 Abortion and reproductive rights * 37:02 Political fallout and the DSA “gotcha” question * 39:34 Tiffany in lockstep with Trump * 40:18 Schools, vouchers and Moms for Liberty * 44:39 Rural health care and the Rural Health Transformation Fund * 46:05 Evers’ shared revenue and Crowley’s Act 12 record * 49:12 Closing statements, Tiffany’s plane crash and rural EMS * 51:25 I-94 Milwaukee project and the “Milwaukee bashing” playbook * 55:46 Vibes: charisma, style and the generational contrast * 56:53 Crowley’s personal story vs. Tiffany’s unchallenged career * 58:34 Billionaire ad spending and the final 12 days * 1:02:07 Panel sign-off * 1:02:34 Today in history: birthdays (Shaggy, Jeff Goldblum, Bob Odenkirk) and Brewers talk * 1:03:56 Music anniversaries (Beatles, Supremes, Bob Seger, Taylor Swift) * 1:04:41 Political history: Hoover, Cuban Missile Crisis, Ukraine testimony * 1:05:33 National days: Nut Day, Caps Lock Day, Scar Appreciation, Smart is Cool * 1:06:49 Sign-off and Milwaukee Brewers World Series excitement This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Republicans have controlled the State Assembly for the last 16 years, and for 30 of the last 32 years. But in 2026, Democrats have a realistic chance at flipping the Assembly for the first time in a long time. In 2024, the first election held under new maps, Democrats made significant gains, picking up 10 seats to narrow Republicans’ majority. Now, they’re hoping to go the rest of the way. If they flip five seats, they’ll win control of the Assembly. Democratic Leader Greta Neubauer, the state representative from District 66, joined us to talk about her party’s chances to make it happen this year. “I think it's finally going to be the year for us to win this Democratic trifecta after a long time in the making,” she said. We talked about their strategy in finding known candidates in their districts — many of whom are current or former educators — and how that’s helping counteract the billionaire-funded attack ads that have taken over this campaign, up and down the ticket. We talked about what Democrats would seek to do if they won a majority, and how to balance long-stalled bills with a more ambitious governing agenda. We also talked about how Democrats forced a vote on postpartum Medicaid expansion and Gail’s Law on the final day of the legislative session, and how some creative maneuvers from Neubauer and Democrats led to these bills finally getting passed after years of Republican obstruction. Neubauer also served with David Crowley during his time in the Assembly, and we talked about their experience together and her thoughts on his run for governor. “The thing about David, which I hope people are seeing through this campaign, is that he really is just a deeply caring person who is in public service because he wants to make the lives of his neighbors better,” she said. We also discussed the increasingly competitive congressional race that’s happening where she resides in the 1st District, with Mitchell Berman looking to unseat Bryan Steil. “I’ve been getting a great reception for Mitchell (Berman) on the doors,” she said. “I think people are very interested in somebody new. And they do just see Brian Steil as someone who has really done nothing to help them and their family make ends meet — and in fact has made things worse.” So, is this the year where Democrats can flip the Assembly? “We are feeling very hopeful about the moment that we're in,” said Neubauer. “We, of course, are seeing a lot of frustration with Donald Trump and Republicans here in Wisconsin. People are unhappy about their costs and they are recognizing that 16 years of Republican leadership in the Assembly and Senate has not made them better off.” Find a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode here. * 00:00:14 – Intro: Two weeks out from Election Day * 00:01:30 – Can Assembly Democrats flip five seats? * 00:03:31 – What’s different this year: fair maps and candidates with a longer runway * 00:06:25 – Why so many educators are running (the Joe Sheehan model) * 00:09:02 – Uihlein, Hendricks and the billionaire money in Assembly races * 00:12:06 – Closing the “Walker loophole” * 00:14:14 – What a Democratic trifecta would do first * 00:19:16 – Winning back faith in “small d” democracy * 00:20:40 – How the new maps changed the Assembly * 00:22:43 – Inside the amendment maneuver that forced the postpartum Medicaid and Gail’s Law votes * 00:29:05 – David Crowley: serving alongside the Democratic nominee for governor * 00:33:42 – The congressional race: Brian Steil vs. Mitchell Berman * 00:37:25 – Please bring back the homemade campaign website * 00:39:17 – Brewers in the World Series * 00:41:17 – Final thoughts: show up and vote The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time 21-TIME! Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

In many ways, the race for control of the Wisconsin State Assembly goes through Assembly District 88, located in eastern Green Bay, De Pere and Brown County. This northeastern Wisconsin district was home to the closest Assembly race in the state in 2024, where less than 250 votes made the difference. Republican Ben Franklin (no, not that one) won that race, but as Democratic Challenger Brandy Tollefson tells it, he didn’t always show up when the moment called for it. Tollefson serves as the Treasurer at the Unified School District of De Pere School Board, and held a listening session at the district before the budget was finalized. “We invited all elected officials to come and listen to us and listen to community members … and hear what our needs were as we were heading into the last budget,” she said. “And almost all of the local elected (officials) showed up, Republicans and Democrats, but my representative did not. And he never followed up with our school district either to come and talk to us … which, I would think that being a school board member, my representative would have shown up to meetings, would have come and talked to us, would have really heard what our concerns are, so that he can be representing us in Madison. And that never happened, which really just tells me that he wasn’t taking his job seriously. He wasn’t actually there to represent the 88th.” In our conversation, Tollefson talked about how she began getting involved in local politics in her community, how she’s seen legislative Republicans underfund schools, how her child’s diabetes diagnosis showed her how broken the health care system is, and about her campaign in the 88th. Tollefson’s race is one of three races we’ve rated as a “TOSS UP” in the State Assembly. See our full preview of both the Assembly and Senate here. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see below. * 00:00:14: Intro, early voting begins in Wisconsin, and the Brewers in the World Series * 00:01:23: Welcoming Brandy, the 88th Assembly District candidate * 00:02:12: Her background: De Pere mom, community volunteer, and school board treasurer * 00:04:00: Why she’s running: the state budget and school funding * 00:05:43: Stepping outside her comfort zone to say yes * 00:07:00: What she’s learned on the school board about how school funding works * 00:08:16: Wisconsin’s fork-in-the-road election and education as a top priority * 00:09:27: Affordability, property taxes, referendums, and vouchers * 00:10:58: Pro-family policies and the “shell game” of state underfunding * 00:12:06: Referendum fatigue and listening to the community * 00:13:09: Her opponent, Rep. Ben Franklin, and the school budget listening session he skipped * 00:17:03: Voters across the district: West De Pere, De Pere, and Green Bay * 00:18:53: Why this swing district is so close (the 2024 race was decided by under 250 votes) * 00:21:57: Ticket-splitting, Moms for Liberty, and “all politics are local” * 00:23:13: Election night plans and what the numbers might show * 00:24:01: Health care: her son’s type 1 diabetes diagnosis * 00:27:35: Health care for small business owners and pre-Medicare workers * 00:30:04: Negative ads, billionaire spending, and the push to get money out of politics * 00:32:43: The Scott Walker loophole and its effect on this election * 00:34:08: Wrap-up and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

In this year’s election in Wisconsin, there is, of course, the first open race for governor in 16 years, where David Crowley is facing Tom Tiffany. There is also a major fork-in-the-road election happening up and down the ballot for control of the Wisconsin State Legislature, where Democrats have their first realistic chance at winning control of both the Senate and Assembly in a generation. Here at The Recombobulation Area, we have previewed every last race on the ballot — that’s right, all 116 of them — and you can check out that preview available for free online right now. One of the most consequential races in the State Senate is happening in District 21, where current state senator, Republican Van Wanggaard, is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. The Democrat running to be the next state senator from this district is Trevor Jung, and he joined us for this conversation. After a quick celebration of the Brewers’ 3-0 NLCS lead over the Dodgers — GO CREW! — Jung shares his path from an orphanage abroad to Racine’s north side, the city council, and his current job as the city’s transit director. He argues that state cuts and levy limits have forced local governments into a cycle of referendums and higher property taxes, and he outlines a platform centered on shared revenue, public schools, and affordability. We also discussed regional rail and transit, the 50-50 nature of the district, and the stark funding contrast between the campaigns. Find a beat-by-beat breakdown of this conversation here: * 00:00 Intro: Wisconsin’s open governor race and the fight for the legislature * 01:01 Introducing the open District 21 seat and Trevor Young * 01:22 Brewers up 3-0 on the Dodgers: Bauers’ home run and Pat Murphy’s Springsteen fandom * 03:30 Trevor’s background: born in an orphanage, raised in Racine * 04:30 Public service path: from city hall to running Racine’s transit system * 06:05 How Republican control squeezed local government: referendums, property taxes, and MCTS cuts * 08:01 Youngest member ever elected to the Racine Common Council * 08:50 Transit in Racine, and the case for Chicago-Milwaukee regional connectivity * 11:50 Why transportation and housing are connected * 13:30 Wisconsin’s population and “brain drain” under 15+ years of GOP control * 14:36 Why District 21: a 50-50 microcosm of Wisconsin * 16:41 Campaigning in a swing district: leading with affordability * 18:11 What voters are saying at the doors: gas, diesel, and the federal government * 19:45 Legislative priorities: shared revenue, public schools, cost of living * 22:16 A “transportation guy” in Madison: DOT, pedestrian safety, and small business * 24:34 Does the property-tax message break through? “If you’re explaining, you’re losing” * 27:41 Contrasting with Republican opponent Jim Croft: grassroots vs. billionaire-backed * 30:53 Closing thoughts and sign-off Thank you for tuning in! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Scot Ross did political communications and research at the state and federal levels for 25 years. His last dozen years in politics, he ran One Wisconsin Now, an opposition research and communication outfit, and for the last 15 years, he’s been the liberal pundit for PBS Wisconsin. He has some thoughts on the upcoming election. We talked about Tom Tiffany not paying any income taxes for years, something Ross and One Wisconsin Now researched years ago during Tiffany’s time in the state legislature, that for some reason, isn’t getting all that much attention now. We also talked about the “Dodgers of politics” — the billionaire Uihleins and Diane Hendricks, who have been funding Tom Tiffany to an exorbitant degree. Ross also discussed campaign strategy and why now is the time for Democrats to go negative, as spending from outside groups is overwhelmingly favoring Tiffany and only a small percentage of Crowley’s ads are negative ones, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and whether Democrats are “leaving cheddar on the table.” “If the race is focused on the fact that Tom Tiffany and Donald Trump are together 100% of the time, Tom Tiffany loses 100% of the time.” said Ross. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these topics and timestamps below. * 00:00 Intro: Brewers lead the Dodgers, 22 days to the midterms * 00:45 Introducing Scot Ross (One Wisconsin Now, PBS Wisconsin) * 01:45 Baseball detour: Pirates futility and the Brewers * 02:49 The One Wisconsin Now banner plane at Miller Park * 03:38 Uihlein, Hendricks, and the “Dodgers of politics” * 04:04 Journal Sentinel: outside spending favors Tiffany * 05:09 Unprecedented spending concentration: 90% from three donors * 06:44 The 2015 coordination loophole Tiffany voted for * 08:21 Why outside groups pay more for ads, and the Uline-Tiffany relationship * 09:24 Billionaire ROI: tax cuts and Tiffany’s “no tax hikes” pledge * 11:48 Eliminating the state income tax * 12:55 Why states without income taxes can afford it, and why Wisconsin can’t * 13:50 Democratic outside spending: only $1M of $11M on negative ads * 15:00 Democrats’ statewide record when they outspend Republicans * 16:25 “I’m terrified”: the Democratic complacency problem * 17:29 Making the race about Trump and Tiffany, not Crowley * 18:27 Tiffany’s unpaid taxes story and why it’s not being used * 21:32 Attack, never defend: Tiffany’s toxic record * 22:12 Can a sitting congressman win the governor’s race? * 23:54 Trump’s low approval, gas prices, and the voter-motivation question * 25:26 “Anger wanes”: why Democrats must keep reminding voters * 25:51 Why Crowley needs a Democratic legislature (Robin Voss and the budget) * 26:20 Congressional races: Rebecca Cook, Mitchell Berman, and the DCCC * 27:15 “Leaving cheddar on the table”: calling for 100% negative * 29:05 Keep the message simple: a hammer, not a carving knife * 29:55 Need for negative ads on Tiffany, and the Walker-era record * 31:08 What a Democratic trifecta could accomplish * 31:35 The “Slap Shot” analogy for the final three weeks * 32:19 Lessons from 2008: it’s in our hands * 32:52 Scott Ross’s play, The Senator Can See You Now * 35:01 The play’s non-partisan, profanity-free approach * 36:04 Final thoughts: “Go fight, win” * 36:33 Outro This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. This week’s episode features Dr. Christopher Ford, a board-certified emergency medicine physician based in Milwaukee, and host of the Pulse Check Wisconsin podcast, where he connects healthcare, community and policy. He recently hosted David Crowley to talk about his health care plan, and you can find that episode here. Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good is off this week, but you can find her latest on Instagram. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 Welcome, and Dr. Chris Ford joins the chat * 00:24 Tangent: why male contraception is still a decade away * 01:35 Crowley proposes a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights * 04:17 Why the amendment draws a clear line against Tiffany * 06:06 Why Wisconsin has no ballot initiative, and Ron Johnson’s “let voters decide” ploy * 08:31 Show-and-tell: uterus stress balls and OB-GYN conference swag * 10:10 Tiffany and eliminating the state income tax: who pays for it? * 16:56 School referendums: 71 districts, 77 questions * 20:43 Why Democrats struggle to connect the dots for voters * 22:26 Nobody wants to be the “tax-and-spend” candidate * 24:39 Making it personal: Tiffany, Van Orden, and lockstep with Trump * 26:49 Down-ballot outlook: anti-Trump mood vs. megadonor money * 33:23 Assembly races to watch: Franklin vs. Tollefson (88th), Novak (51st), Donovan vs. Brist (61st) * 36:51 Zimmerman vs. Knoke in River Falls and the open Oak Creek seat * 40:03 State Senate spotlight: Marklein vs. Jacobson in the 17th * 41:42 Election interference: ICE, ballot seizures, and deepfakes * 46:32 Absentee returns are down: fear of the mail, or fading pandemic habits? * 50:35 Wisconsin elections are secure: make your voting plan * 52:33 Up North News live event with Crowley and Josh Kaul, Oct. 14 at the Overture Center * 54:09 Coming up next week: Tiffany skips another event * 54:44 Obama endorses David Crowley * 56:56 Chris’s week: Gee’s Clippers event, Gov. Wes Moore, and Pulse Check Wisconsin * 57:49 Preview: the Nov. 6 post-election episode and 2028 speculation * 58:25 Becky Nichols plug (AD 53), Brewers talk, and sign-off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Mark Pocan served 14 years in the Wisconsin State Assembly before being elected to Congress in 2012, and is now in his seventh term representing Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District. Congressman Pocan is running unopposed for re-election this year, and is getting to work helping other candidates in Wisconsin as part of Democrats’ quest to flip the House of Representatives. The 3rd Congressional District contest between Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke has always been considered especially competitive, but now, given the national environment, the 1st Congressional District is very much in play, Pocan says. A Kenosha native himself, Pocan sees a real opportunity for Democrat Mitchell Berman to unseat Republican Bryan Steil. Along with the 1st District — and Bryan Steil’s unique electoral vulnerabilities, particularly around stock trading — Pocan discussed his often contentious relationship with Rep. Derrick Van Orden, and what might happen if Democrats take the House in the midterms. Plus: As someone who was part of the majority the last time Democrats controlled the Assembly, he offered his thoughts on key downballot races and the potential for the first Democratic trifecta in more than 15 years. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, check out our timestamps below: * 00:00:14 Welcome and Meet Congressman Mark Pocan * 00:00:45 Running Unopposed in the Midterms * 00:02:46 Why This Election Is “Definitional” * 00:05:07 Trump’s Slipping Approval in Wisconsin * 00:05:51 Wisconsin’s 1st District: Mitchell Berman vs. Brian Steil * 00:07:53 The Congressional Stock Trading Ban Fight * 00:10:31 Crypto Money and Steil’s Regulatory Role * 00:12:17 Inside Steil’s “Stop Insider Trading Act” Loopholes * 00:18:49 Can Democrats Flip the House? Red to Blue and Iowa * 00:20:44 Wisconsin’s 3rd District: Rebecca Cook vs. Derek Van Orden * 00:22:30 Pocan on Van Orden’s Controversies * 00:26:49 Tom Tiffany, the Governor’s Race, and the Wisconsin Delegation * 00:29:50 What a Democratic House Majority Would Mean * 00:33:12 Medicaid Cuts and Health Care as the 2028 Issue * 00:35:56 The Shot at a Democratic Trifecta in Wisconsin * 00:38:31 Down-Ballot Races: Assembly District 51 and Senate District 17 * 00:41:09 Three Billionaires and Wisconsin Republican Funding * 00:43:15 Pocan on D.C. Consultants * 00:44:52 “Democrats Take Billionaire Money Too”: Citizens United and Campaign Finance Reform * 00:48:44 Final Thoughts: “The Most Important Election of Our Lives” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow (The View from UpNorth) of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area. There is so much happening in the Wisconsin political universe, and your friends at the “Wisconsin Politics Group Chat” podcast are here to break it all down. This episode aired live on the Motherhood for Good YouTube Channel on Friday, Oct. 2, at 1 p.m. You can find us every Friday at that time to tune in live. For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below: * 00:00 Welcome + the Hawks vs. Hawkeyes Senate hearing mix-up * 01:10 Travel chaos: O’Hare vs. the Milwaukee airport * 04:46 Tiffany dodges debates (just one, on WISN 12) * 05:41 Tiffany turns down the Marquette “get to know” event * 07:24 Tiffany’s health care answer: “price transparency” * 08:32 Tax cuts on everything and what they’d defund * 09:19 Billionaires paying for 90%+ of Tiffany’s campaign * 10:31 Marquette poll: Crowley leads 49–46 * 12:24 Crowley’s big lead with independent voters * 14:27 Why independents are shifting: gas, groceries, health care * 16:55 Flipping the script: federal taxes and Tiffany’s votes with Trump * 19:21 Trump’s approval hits a Wisconsin low * 21:50 Will Crowley fight back? * 22:52 Valley Victory and Fox Valley momentum * 25:16 How Democrats could flip the Assembly * 26:04 Which state Senate seats Democrats need * 31:16 Francesca Hong’s tour: “Do not write me in” * 34:39 Billionaires vs. the people: does that message work? * 36:18 The Uihleins, Hendricks, and their tax break * 38:17 Voters now trust Democrats on cost of living * 39:06 Republicans have no wins to run on * 40:46 The big question: will frustrated voters show up? * 42:48 Door-knocking that starts with listening * 44:33 How clean energy cuts raise your bills * 46:14 How Crowley helped keep the Brewers in Milwaukee * 51:59 Crowley’s 2027 Milwaukee County budget * 54:01 Dan’s state Senate endorsements * 55:29 Down-ballot candidates: Shae Sortwell (Assembly District 2) * 57:51 Tiffany campaign blocks reporters * 58:35 Next week: election day plans and pushing back on attacks * 1:01:26 Wrap-up: Brewers, Badgers and chili season This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

As we get closer and closer to the Nov. 3 election, there’s been an issue that’s continued to emerge as an especially contentious one – data centers. Perhaps more specifically, it’s been the type of hyperscale AI data centers that are being proposed or built all over the country, including here in Wisconsin. From a political standpoint, a broad opposition to these data centers has emerged in a big way, with the most recent polling from the Marquette University Law School showing that 78% of voters say the costs outweigh the benefits for these mega-projects, and only 21% saying the benefits outweigh the costs. And this issue is one that does not necessarily cut along traditional political lines. While Democratic voters have become the most opposed to data centers, almost two-thirds of Republican voters are against data centers, and about 80% of independent voters are against them, too. In the months since polling on data centers has tipped this way, we’ve seen politicians up and down the ballot — from the governor’s race to all sorts of Senate and Assembly races — highlight data centers as a top issue, be it on the campaign trail or in attack ads or whatever it might be. But part of what might be missing from this larger conversation on data centers is a dialogue on what is actually happening in Wisconsin when it comes to data centers. So, I’m hosting a two-part conversation on this issue with Wisconsin journalists who are covering this from different angles. This is not to advocate for any one side of this — you can probably guess where I stand, frankly — but to better understand a complex and polarizing issue. For this part of the conversation, my guest is Chali Pittman, a journalist from Madison who is currently a staff writer at the Isthmus, was formerly the News & Talk Director at WORT, and is my former colleague at Civic Media, when she was the News Director and I was the Political Editor. In the months when we worked together, we talked about data center politics often, and since, separate from all of your other work, Chali launched a Substack newsletter called Data Processor, which is taking a look at this issue in a really unique way. For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these titles and timestamps below. 00:00 – Intro: Data Centers Become an Election Issue 01:42 – Meet Chali Pittman of Isthmus and the Data Processor Newsletter 02:28 – Why She Started Data Processor 04:45 – A Policy Deep Dive: Zoning, Land Use, and Energy Regulation 06:21 – What Surprised Her Most: It’s Really About Energy 08:00 – Rising Bills, Fossil Fuel Plants, and Renewable Energy Limits 10:18 – Tiffany, the Becky Transmission Line, and Rural Opposition 14:21 – Strange Bedfellows: The Caledonia Plan Commission Meeting 18:18 – The Big-Tent Opposition and the David Wallace-Wells Essay 20:34 – NDAs, Tax Credits, and TIF: Economic Development Tools Stretched to Fit 23:43 – “Speed and Scale” and Not All Developers Are Alike 26:50 – Pitting Communities Against Each Other: The DeForest Case 28:21 – Towns, Villages, Annexation, and Generational Land Use Fights 30:42 – QTS Pulls Out and the Village PR Problem 32:17 – The Moratorium Debate: Francesca Hong’s Campaign Impact 33:51 – What Other States and Wisconsin Counties Have Done 37:44 – Crowley vs. Tiffany: “Local Control” and Renewable Energy Promises 41:06 – Where Does This Go Next? Lawmakers, Voters, and Civic Engagement 44:16 – The Data Processor Book Club: Reading List on AI and Energy 48:53 – Wrap-Up and Where to Subscribe This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

As we get closer and closer to the Nov. 3 election, there’s been an issue that’s continued to emerge as an especially contentious one – data centers. Perhaps more specifically, it’s been the type of hyperscale AI data centers that are being proposed or built all over the country, including here in Wisconsin. From a political standpoint, a broad opposition to these data centers has emerged in a big way, with the most recent polling from the Marquette University Law School showing that 78% of voters say the costs outweigh the benefits for these mega-projects, and only 21% saying the benefits outweigh the costs. And this issue is one that does not necessarily cut along traditional political lines. While Democratic voters have become the most opposed to data centers, almost two-thirds of Republican voters are against data centers, and about 80% of independent voters are against them, too. In the months since polling on data centers has tipped this way, we’ve seen politicians up and down the ballot — from the governor’s race to all sorts of Senate and Assembly races — highlight data centers as a top issue, be it on the campaign trail or in attack ads or whatever it might be. But part of what might be missing from this larger conversation on data centers is a dialogue on what is actually happening in Wisconsin when it comes to data centers. So, I’m hosting a two-part conversation on this issue with Wisconsin journalists who are covering this from different angles. This is not to advocate for any one side of this — you can probably guess where I stand, frankly — but to better understand a complex and polarizing issue. For the first part of this conversation, my guest is Andrew Weiland, the editor of BizTimes Milwaukee, an independently-owned and operated business news media company. BizTimes recently published a cover story with the headline, “It’s the Data Center Economy” and he and the rest of the team have been covering this issue closely in a variety of ways.For a beat-by-beat breakdown of this episode, see these titles and timestamps below. * 00:00 – Intro: Data Centers Become an Election Issue * 01:49 – Meet Andrew Weiland of BizTimes Milwaukee * 03:20 – How BizTimes Covers the Data Center Boom * 04:06 – The Big Projects: Microsoft, Oracle/OpenAI, and Meta * 05:41 – The Supply Chain Story Flying Under the Radar * 06:26 – “The Data Center Economy”: Bubble and Backlash Risks * 08:00 – Wisconsin Winners: Generac’s $8 Billion Amazon Deal * 11:10 – Modine’s Cooling Systems and New Racine and Franklin Jobs * 13:31 – Secrecy, NDAs, and How Developers Pitch Projects * 15:49 – The Reporter’s Side: Breaking Stories Before Deals Are Announced * 17:25 – Microsoft Forgoes a $5 Million Mount Pleasant Incentive * 18:16 – TIF Explained: Wisconsin’s Main Development Tool * 21:17 – Incentives Then and Now: WEDC, Sales Tax Exemptions, and Stadium Comparisons * 24:21 – Port Washington and the Question of Job Numbers * 25:51 – Why the Backlash: Power Costs, Big Tech Fatigue, and a Physical Footprint * 27:27 – Foxconn’s Legacy and Public Distrust * 28:59 – How Foxconn Became a Political Deal * 31:21 – From Foxconn Land to Data Centers: Power, Water, Noise, and AI Anxiety * 33:07 – Closing Thought: Technological Change Rolls On * 36:19 – Jurassic Park Warning and Sign-Off This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe