Advertise on podcast: The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and long-term thinking podcast

Sam Baker, research analyst at River, joins me to explain why Bitcoin could reach $840,000 within the next three to five years. We discuss the institutional adoption and capital inflows behind River’s model, the case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation, why each dollar invested can add several dollars to Bitcoin’s market cap, custody considerations, the CLARITY Act, AI’s role in accelerating macro trends, and why businesses are currently driving Bitcoin demand. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin 06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin? 09:22 Why $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap 14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation 20:43 What is Bitcoin? 23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much? 25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know 26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody 29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis? 30:42 The CLARITY Act 32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early? 36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption 38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand 41:09 Closing thoughts

Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us. We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin 02:30 How predictive is on-chain data? 08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation 14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in? 19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen 24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation 31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines 36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders 43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real? 49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths 52:00 Long-term holder conviction and the next bull market 55:08 Where to follow Matt

Luke Broyles joins me to explain why he believes Bitcoin could eventually reach $20 million per coin. We discuss the accelerating pace of technology, the growth of U.S. debt, AI, monetary debasement, and why Luke thinks Bitcoin sits at the intersection of these long-term trends. We also explore why calling Bitcoin "digital gold" may dramatically undersell its potential and why most Bitcoin price targets could be far too low. This is a long-term conversation about where Bitcoin, technology, and the global financial system may be heading. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:03 Luke Broyles' Bitcoin thesis 5:49 Why the future will change faster than the past 10:21 The three pillars of Luke's worldview 11:40 AI, Starship, robotics and accelerating technology 19:09 Why technological progress keeps accelerating 22:14 Is the global debt market a Ponzi scheme? 25:24 Where U.S. government debt is headed 27:34 What the debt actually means for taxpayers 31:09 Treasury buybacks and Bitcoin 34:12 Could the average house eventually cost $40 million? 37:03 The collision between technology and debt 39:37 Why technology demonetizes everything 41:08 Bitcoin and the significance of 21 million 42:20 How technological deflation worsens the debt problem 43:21 Why the AI bull case could hurt AI stocks 47:06 Why Bitcoin could reach $20 million 49:54 Bitcoin versus gold 53:18 $5M, $10M and $100M Bitcoin 55:18 Why "digital gold" undersells Bitcoin 56:32 Will AI take everyone's jobs? 58:34 Why Bitcoin could be far bigger than gold 1:01:27 Bitcoin's next 50 years 1:02:46 Mining the final Bitcoin 1:04:32 Could Bitcoin still fail? 1:06:55 Is Bitcoin actually the lower-risk asset? 1:08:39 Why everyone should get off zero 1:10:34 Closing thoughts

Sminston With joins me to explain why Bitcoin’s power law has remained remarkably consistent and how PMI, liquidity, and AI may help explain Bitcoin’s current cycle. We also discuss what could invalidate the power law, the possibility of a $200K-$300K Bitcoin supercycle, and why accumulating 1 BTC is becoming increasingly difficult. Timestamps: 0:00 Sminston’s background and journey to Bitcoin 5:30 Why power laws matter for Bitcoin 12:01 Why the power law may be more robust than stock-to-flow 16:14 Why Bitcoin follows a power law 19:45 PMI, business cycles, and Bitcoin volatility 24:19 Why Bitcoin and PMI are diverging 28:01 The PMI level that could ignite Bitcoin 32:33 Liquidity, AI, and the muted bull market 36:57 Could Bitcoin enter a supercycle? 40:13 What would break the Bitcoin power law? 44:06 How much Bitcoin do you need to retire? 51:02 Sminston’s new Bitcoin data platform

Vijay Boyapati, author of *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin*, joins me to discuss why Bitcoin may be in the “boring low” of its cycle, why he still sees a path to gold parity and ~20x upside, and what could drive the next bull market. We also discuss AI and Bitcoin security, self-custody, Bitcoin price models, ETFs, treasury companies, and what a future Bitcoin standard could look like. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:19 What Vijay Got Right About Bitcoin 06:03 Is Vijay More Bullish Today? 08:07 How Vijay Values Bitcoin 10:36 What Stands Between Bitcoin and Gold Parity? 11:31 Understanding the Current Bitcoin Cycle 16:48 Is AI Sucking Capital Away From Bitcoin? 20:49 AI, Coldcard and Bitcoin Security 27:14 Will AI Make Bitcoin Software Stronger? 28:04 Stock-to-Flow, Power Law and Bitcoin Price Models 31:49 What Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Bull Market? 34:13 Where Will the Next Wave of Capital Come From? 37:22 What Would a Bitcoin Standard Look Like? 39:55 Why Bear Markets Create Opportunity 41:39 Where to Follow Vijay

The Rational Root joins me to break down the Coldcard vulnerability, BIP-110, and the potential Bitcoin chain split. We also analyze on-chain momentum, Digital Credit, institutional demand, and whether Bitcoin’s 2026 bear-market bottom may already be in. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:24 Coldcard vulnerability overview 4:46 Coin Days Destroyed and the Coldcard incident 8:41 Coldcard’s development failures 11:50 How AI could strengthen Bitcoin security 13:52 Why Coldcard barely moved Bitcoin’s price 17:16 The safest approach to self-custody 20:15 The risks of single-signature hardware wallets 23:12 BIP-110 and the potential Bitcoin chain split 23:33 Transaction fees after the Coldcard incident 25:08 Bitcoin Core, Knots, and OP_RETURN 28:41 The three ways data enters Bitcoin 33:00 Could BIP-110 make the UTXO problem worse? 35:29 Why Bitcoin’s spam problem may be overstated 37:21 Where Bitcoin is in the four-year cycle 38:35 Short-term holder momentum and capitulation 41:44 How short-term holder momentum works 43:06 Is the Bitcoin bottom already in? 45:45 Could Bitcoin fall to realized price? 47:44 Digital Credit and institutional demand 50:28 Strategy’s cash reserve and preferred stocks 51:09 Why this bear market may be less severe 54:20 Bitcoin’s disconnect from stocks 56:00 AI, macro, and the business cycle 59:15 The final day of the bear market 1:01:16 Bitcoin’s antifragility 1:01:56 Where to follow The Rational Root

Eric Jackson joins Joe Burnett to explain why he believes bitcoin could reach $50 million as AI agents transform global commerce and demand pristine digital collateral. They also discuss bitcoin’s recent underperformance, AI-powered market models, compounding through volatility, and why the next five years may be the most uncertain investing environment of our lifetimes. Timestamps: 0:00 - Eric Jackson’s background in markets 2:14 - Finding Carvana before the comeback 3:01 - The OpenDoor trade and retail investor momentum 3:40 - How Eric got interested in bitcoin and crypto 6:26 - Building AI models before ChatGPT 9:23 - Volatility, conviction, and long-term investing 12:16 - Why Eric thinks bitcoin could reach $50 million 17:01 - Bitcoin as the “other coin” of the AI trade 17:28 - Why bitcoin has underperformed gold and AI stocks 20:16 - Is the AI boom propping up the market? 22:03 - What the world could look like in 2041 25:55 - AI, uncertainty, and the next five years 28:47 - Kevin Warsh, interest rates, and bitcoin 31:37 - Eric’s bitcoin stress indicator 40:27 - Compounding through bitcoin volatility 43:35 - Can markets be predicted with enough data? 48:20 - How AI changed market analysis 50:44 - Event Horizon IQ and AI-powered predictions 54:15 - Final thoughts and where to follow Eric

Joe Consorti joins The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast to break down the Fed’s impossible choice between fighting inflation, protecting the economy, and keeping asset prices alive. We discuss why bitcoin may be the only asset accurately pricing today’s uncertainty, how AI is disrupting software but strengthening bitcoin’s long-term case, and why the dollar crash playbook may already be underway. Timestamps: 0:00 - Joe Consorti returns 0:43 - Kevin Warsh’s impossible Fed dilemma 4:49 - Why the Fed may cut rates despite inflation 9:35 - Consumer sentiment hits 74-year lows 11:00 - The K-shaped economy: asset owners vs. everyone else 14:00 - Why they will crash the dollar before markets 17:43 - Why bitcoin is underperforming 21:08 - Is AI stealing capital from bitcoin? 25:10 - Why AI can disrupt software, but cannot disrupt bitcoin 31:02 - ISM PMI, the business cycle, and bitcoin’s bottom 34:37 - Why bitcoin broke from global M2 36:26 - What happens if oil, war, and inflation cool down? 37:17 - Why the S&P 500 could hit 10,000 40:43 - How AI expands the divide between asset owners and labor 45:31 - What bitcoiners may be wrong about 48:22 - “I missed bitcoin” and the unit bias trap 50:18 - Where to follow Joe Consorti

Bitcoin is evolving into a unique asset that responds to both crisis and liquidity expansion. In this conversation, we break down how macro policy, market structure, and institutional flows are reshaping bitcoin’s role in global portfolios. The result is a shift toward bitcoin as a core asset for long-term capital allocation. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and current bitcoin market setup 0:23 Price levels, resistance, and defining a new bull market 1:30 Macro backdrop: war, uncertainty, and market reactions 2:40 Bitcoin as chaos insurance across global crises 4:00 Performance vs gold, S&P 500, and shifting perception 5:00 Liquidity asset vs risk-off asset: reconciling the paradox 6:30 Dual drivers: global liquidity and crisis demand 8:00 Declining volatility and shallower bitcoin drawdowns 9:30 Why traditional markets avoid prolonged recessions 12:00 Debt dynamics and the inevitability of policy response 14:00 Faster Fed response cycles from 2008 to today 16:00 The “big print” and bitcoin as the primary beneficiary 17:30 Role of technology and information flow in policy decisions 20:00 Monetary policy, asset inflation, and wealth concentration 21:30 Fastest stock market rally since 1982 and implications 23:30 V-shaped recoveries and forward market returns 25:00 Institutional positioning and bullish equity signals 27:00 Treasury market stress and liquidity risks 28:30 Why markets rise in both good and bad scenarios 30:00 Bitcoin’s origin and alignment with monetary debasement 31:30 Coffeezilla debate and digital credit misconceptions 35:00 STRC mechanics and sustainability of yield 40:00 Bitcoin balance sheet coverage and risk framing 43:30 Bitcoin decoupling from tech and software stocks 46:00 Long-term path toward an uncorrelated asset 46:30 What to own if bitcoin did not exist 48:30 Closing thoughts and where to follow

Digital Credit is expanding the total addressable market for Bitcoin and Bitcoin is expanding the total addressable market for Digital Credit. This conversation explores how that dynamic could scale reflexively and reshape global capital allocation. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:24 Why Bitcoiners should care about digital credit 6:00 Bitcoin fixed income and a new asset class 8:30 The carry trade: earning Bitcoin yield 11:00 Transparent yield vs black-box risk 17:50 Why digital credit is attracting massive demand 20:00 “Printing Bitcoin with your Bitcoin” 24:59 Bitcoin as the unit of account (Roxom thesis) 34:00 The best Bitcoin investments (NVIDIA example) 38:41 Idle Bitcoin 47:01 The reflexive growth loop of digital credit 54:00 Closing thoughts: think in Bitcoin

Tad Smith joins Joe Burnett to discuss why he still favors bitcoin over gold, how AI is reshaping software, labor, and opportunity, and why he sees the current market setup as increasingly attractive for bitcoin and Strategy. They also dig into Digital Credit, the long-term potential of Strategy’s preferred products, the quantum cloud over bitcoin, and Tad’s new role leading Candy Digital. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:28 What First Clicked for Tad on Bitcoin 4:11 Gold vs. Bitcoin Right Now 6:51 Current Market Dynamics, Oil, and Volatility 8:46 Why AI Pressures Traditional Software 10:53 Why Tad Still Likes Palantir 13:03 The Fed, Inflation, and Global Liquidity 17:11 Weakening Labor Markets and Why More Printing Could Follow 19:49 Is AI Replacing White-Collar Work? 22:57 Tad’s Advice for Students and Young Workers 26:14 AI, Abundance, and Choosing Optimism 29:51 Where We Are in the Bitcoin Cycle 32:37 Does Bitcoin Have a Real Floor? 35:46 What Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move Higher 38:52 Morgan Stanley, Quantum Risk, and Clearing the Clouds 46:56 Strategy, STRC, STRK, and Amplified Bitcoin 51:49 Is Stretch Strategy’s iPhone Product? 55:21 Tad on Candy Digital and Digital Collectibles 57:42 Final Thoughts on Fear, Resilience, and Happiness

Market sentiment is weak, volatility is elevated, and capital has nowhere to hide. In this episode, Adrian Morris explains why sentiment drives all markets, how it shapes bitcoin’s price, and what it takes to navigate and withstand the current environment.Read Adrian's research report here: https://tnorth.com/research/sentiment-as-substrate/Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:33 Welcoming Adrian 01:08 Current market conditions and volatility 03:31 Energy, macro pressure, and bitcoin outlook 04:04 Why markets are driven by sentiment 07:54 mNAV, valuation, and sentiment shifts 13:50 The most controversial idea in the paper 15:37 Is valuation ever objective? 20:17 Bitcoin narratives vs market reality 20:35 Traditional finance misses the “first cause” 24:55 Do fundamentals matter or not? 28:46 The “blind ledger” thought experiment 31:23 Warren Buffett and valuation frameworks 34:54 What is reflexivity in markets? 36:46 Leverage, volatility, and bitcoin 39:00 Paper bitcoin and market structure 42:30 Fixed supply and bitcoin valuation 46:15 Efficient market hypothesis critique 49:45 Are free markets truly efficient? 52:13 Why most investors underperform 55:41 Passive investing and market risk 59:32 Digital credit and market perception 1:03:23 Final thoughts on sentiment and pricing 1:04:49 Weathering volatility as an investor

Bitcoin is holding firm as equities, gold, and silver decline amid rising geopolitical tension, signaling a potential shift in how the asset behaves during global stress. We break down the macro forces driving markets, the rise of digital credit as a Bitcoin demand engine, and how AI is accelerating a new financial paradigm. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro and Bitcoin’s move from $90K to ~$70K 03:30 – Key levels, market structure, and has the bottom formed 04:00 – Is Bitcoin broken? The 5-year CAGR debate 07:00 – Why Bitcoin performance depends on timeframe 08:20 – Bitcoin vs war: why it’s holding up 12:00 – Liquidity, narratives, and decoupling from other assets 17:30 – Rising interest rates, oil, and macro pressures 22:50 – Oil spikes and recession risk 28:10 – Digital credit finds product-market fit 32:30 – The Bitcoin demand flywheel and scaling capital 33:20 – Time horizons, volatility, and investor behavior 35:30 – Why digital credit unlocks institutional adoption 37:45 – Track record building during volatility 40:20 – Gold and silver crash: what’s happening 43:30 – Long-term outlook for gold vs Bitcoin 46:20 – AI acceleration and economic impact 49:30 – Rising uncertainty and the future of work 52:00 – AI, money printing, and Bitcoin’s role 54:00 – Final thoughts and where to follow Joe

Digital credit and bitcoin-backed money are emerging as a new foundation for global finance, offering yield, transparency, and programmability. In this episode, Parker from APYX explains how this system works, why it is gaining traction, and how it could drive the next wave of bitcoin adoption. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:33 What is digital money and digital credit 3:01 Parker’s background: from Austrian economics to bitcoin 6:18 Early career, Kraken, and DeFi experience 7:07 Why bitcoin-backed stablecoins matter 10:01 Where yield comes from in digital credit and money 11:27 What APYX is and how it works 15:44 DeFi yield demand and carry trades explained 19:01 Why capital hasn’t fully moved from Athena to APYX 21:38 October crash and Ethena’s role 23:07 Stablecoin depegs and market mechanics 25:10 How APYX maintains its peg 27:46 Floating vs hard pegs (STRC comparison) 28:23 Luna comparison and key differences 31:07 Why digital credit must scale for digital money 33:16 Private credit vs digital credit 35:27 Blockfills bankruptcy and market stress 37:04 Impact of bitcoin ETFs on market structure 40:11 Offshore vs onshore price discovery 41:38 Why bitcoin is trading around $70K 46:31 Derivatives vs spot market imbalance 47:11 Will digital credit drive bitcoin demand 50:13 Why yield products unlock new bitcoin demand 51:39 Where to learn more about APYX

Joe Burnett sits down with Conner Brown of the Bitcoin Policy Institute to discuss the Basel Committee’s 1,250% bitcoin risk weighting and why many view it as a major policy mistake limiting bank adoption. They also explore digital credit, the future of bitcoin in the financial system, and why AI agents may ultimately prefer bitcoin as money. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:49 The Basel 1,250% mistake explained 7:26 How punitive Basel’s bitcoin risk weighting is in practice 12:12 Why Basel treats gold and bitcoin so differently 15:01 What happens if the U.S. changes the rules for banks 20:06 Why America should lead in bitcoin financial products 22:07 Digital credit and why Connor is bullish on it 26:20 Why bitcoin needs to be repackaged for different users 29:10 What money AI agents prefer 33:35 What properties AI agents want in money 37:49 Why bitcoin could give AI agents a capability boost 41:32 How fast AI is advancing 48:20 AI, job displacement, and the reorganization of society 54:51 Key bitcoin policy issues to watch in Washington 1:01:14 Where to follow Connor and Bitcoin Policy Institute