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Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting 00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion 00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance 00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics 00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion 00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege 00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation 00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences 00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens 00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s 00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law 00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses 00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets 01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto 01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop 04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing 10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension 13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles 17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results 20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown 25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed 27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers 31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing 43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction 52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities 01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies 01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Find out more about DUNN Capital Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain 01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career 03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure 06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge 08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time 14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets 17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants 20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior 24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis 32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies 39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge 40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading 51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume 56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises 03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones 04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences 06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape 10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs 12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions 16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026 21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies 22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies 25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance 32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction 39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading 52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta 57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products 01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints 01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs 01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Tom on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest 02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets 03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets 05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets 06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises 07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction 11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio 13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets 16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained 19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends 20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence 26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading 32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience 40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategies Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Harry on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and episode framing 01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility 07:29 - Trend following performance through Q1 09:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds 11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained 14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies 18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend 21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights 30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures 35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency 42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction 49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior 53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks 01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies 01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunities Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Peter on X. Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion 02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability 04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom 06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making 09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems 12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives 17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict 19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure 22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities 25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension 29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints 33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world 39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk 48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the series 01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments 01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning 04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes 06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly 09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality 14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down 17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty 24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints 27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic 37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations 41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets 49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained 56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution 01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie 03:48 - How the book Genesis came together 09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths 17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand 20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world 25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI 27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society 33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI 40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence 50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight 58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop 01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty 03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns 08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets 11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance 14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility 18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update 27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models 38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies 48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows 55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns 01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Dan on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series 02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background 03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting 05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership 08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes 11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner 13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model 18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships 23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers 28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers 34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums 37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies 43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations 50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification 53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies 56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing 58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams 01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike 06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential 11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy 15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions 22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following 24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance 25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent 31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns 36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected 41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants 45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting 49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets 55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure 59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving case for private markets, and the limitations of labels such as hedge funds, factors, or alternative assets. Along the way, they discuss the behavioral traps that influence allocators, the challenges of manager selection, and why outcome based investing may offer a clearer framework for navigating uncertain markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Aoifinn on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introducing Aoifinn Devitt and her background 03:14 - From corporate law to a career in finance 05:16 - Institutional vs private wealth portfolio construction 09:47 - How macro regimes influence asset allocation 12:53 - Rethinking the endowment model and private markets 15:32 - Private credit and diversification challenges 18:13 - Total portfolio approach vs traditional allocation 21:27 - Bonds, equities, and changing correlations 27:52 - Concentration risk and the dominance of mega cap stocks 37:33 - The evolving role of hedge funds in portfolios 42:35 - Gold, commodities, and inflation protection 46:23 - Behavioral biases and long term market cycles 57:35 - Advice for young professionals entering finance Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives 03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices 10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies 15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio 23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets 25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference 37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed 46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift 50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios 58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices 01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before. They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection. This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now 03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works 10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do? 16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat 20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error 26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change 33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals 39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history 45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate 48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges 52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer